(03-31-2021 12:00 PM)TonyTiger06 Wrote:  BYU has a $5M contract and no set scheduling restrictions in football or Olympic sports. I would think that our per team payout would have to be at $10M per team to get any serious consideration.

$10 M per team might be enough to at least persuade BYU to enter into serious discussions with the AAC, if there were strong indications that the conference would expand to 14 teams and become a strong contender for "autonomous" conference status by 2032, when they could bargain for full "power conference" status ($20-$30 million/per year, per school).

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Q: Could the AAC and their broadcasting partners pull together enough $ to put together a $10M/year package for BYU through 2032?

A: Yes. Here's how:

1. Their base income would be $5 to $7 million/year in broadcasting revenue ($5 M/year for FB; $7M for all-sports).

2. ESPN might be prepared to boost the offer by $1 or $2 million per year, with the consent of the AAC schools, since all parties would be certain to make money on the deal, due to increased viewership and attendance.

--That would boost BYU's broadcasting revenue to $8 or $9 M/year (all-sports; or $6-$7 million for FB-only).

3. Recognizing the long-term investment opportunity, the AAC schools could pony up the remainder of the amount needed to ink the deal.

--If BYU could get $8 or $9 million/year (all-sports) from an enhanced ESPN/broadcasting deal, the AAC schools would only have to kick in $100K or $200K per year/per school to put together a $10M/year deal.

--If BYU were to get an offer of $6 or $7 million/year (FB only) from an enhanced ESPN/broadcasting deal, the AAC schools would have to kick in $300K or $400K per year/per school to put together a $10M/year deal.

----At most, this would cost the AAC schools no more than 5.7% of their annual broadcasting revenue through 2032, which they would recoup in 2033, when their broadcasting revenue would skyrocket.

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If the main thing that has prevented BYU from joining the American is the lack of a sufficient financial incentive, with ~$10M being in the ball park for either FB-only or all-sports, that kind of money could be raised if the AAC would be convinced that adding BYU would put the conference on the fast track to autonomy/power status.

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Q: What would be the incentives for ESPN to boost BYU's revenue stream?

A: BYU FB (a) has such high viewership that ESPN would be sure to make a profit by broadcasting their games; moreover, (b) BYU's presence would increase the quality of their AAC broadcasts by adding several additional high-viewership AAC FB games to their AAC coverage each year.

--Rather than having just 6 or 7 "million-plus" viewership AAC vs. AAC regular season matchups, there would be 10 or 11 "million-plus" viewership games if BYU were to join the conference.

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Q: What would be the incentives for the AAC schools to kick in $100K or more per year to bring BYU into the conference?

A: These payments would be a critical investment in their future revenue-generating potential:

--1) The addition of BYU would (a) boost home attendance (vs. BYU), (b) result in a significant increase in the AAC's broadcasting revenue stream by 2033, and © be a crucial component of the strategic plan to attaining "autonomous" and "power conference" status.

--2) The addition of BYU might be enough to persuade two of the top MWC FB schools to join the AAC, since joining an expanded 14-team AAC might be the only way that they become members of a power ("A6/P6") conference within a decade.

--3) The addition of two top MWC FB teams (e.g., Boise & SDSU or Air Force) would (a) boost home attendance vs. the MWC teams, (b) result in an even more significant increase in the AAC's broadcasting revenue stream by 2033, and © be the "breakthrough" component of the strategic plan to attaining "autonomous" and "power conference" status.

--4) Investing $100-$400K per year to bring BYU aboard would thus set into motion a process that would be likely to double or triple the AAC's broadcasting revenue (from $7M to $14-$21M+ per school) by 2033.

----If full "power" conference status can be achieved for an expanded AAC during the negotiations for the next broadcasting deal, revenues could triple to ~$21M+ or quadruple to ~$28M or more, per school.

Commissioner Aresco made it apparent that the AAC's aspirations to move toward expansion and "autonomous" status with a hoped-for decision to expand the 8-team CFP bowl series have been put on hold, making it necessary to pursue an alternative strategy.

Making BYU a sufficiently enhanced offer to join the AAC could be the first step of one such alternative strategy, which the Commissioner may wish to consider as a viable option.

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