(03-25-2021 11:27 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(03-24-2021 06:12 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Honestly, if the western Boise/SDSU/BYU (or AF if BYU isnt interested) thing doesnt work out---I'd be just fine with staying at 11 and just replacing UConn olympic sports with a VCU "non-football" membership. That adds back some of the basketball strength we lost when UConn left---and frankly---the exit of UConn football was addition via subtraction....so the football side of he AAC isnt where the real damage from the UConn exit was felt. Yes, the UConn exit caused a football scheduling issue---but the actual overall strength of AAC football improved with the loss of its bottom team. Its the basketball side of the AAC that lost some gravitas.

Strongly agree - but if there's no progress with western schools by the end of the FB season, perhaps the conference should initiate a conversation with VCU by the end of this year.

During his 3/15/21 press conference, Commissioner Aresco expressed what appeared to be strong concerns about the conference's strategic situation, suggesting that the conference may have to follow a new/different strategy, with words suggesting that he may be back at square one with regard to the prospects of either replacing UConn or expanding membership beyond 11, saying:

"...we’re trying to figure out what our strategy is going to be..." and "...we’ve got to figure out in the next year or two if (the) playoff gets expanded..."

https://247sports.com/college/temple/Art...162486095/

This represents quite a change in tone, compared to his statements a few weeks ago, when expressed enthusiasm about the prospects of a playoff expansion at the upcoming meetings in the Spring. His remarks suggest that the prospects for an 8-team CFP within the near future may have dimmed.

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With this in mind, the question arises - - does it really make sense to hold off on replacing UConn's BB and olympic sports programs so that it can retain the option to add up to 3 all-sports schools, or would it make more sense to get to work on replacing those UConn programs with an upper echelon BB school such as VCU? I think not, for these reasons:

SDSU's AD has denied having any interest whatsoever in joining the AAC (although they had once considered a FB affiliation), and BYU has never shown any outward interest in any kind of affiliation. There may still be a remote possibility that Boise would join as a FB only member if they can join a satisfactory western non-FB conference, but the AAC has refused to consider adding them as an all-sports member.

The only conceivable thing that would provide with BYU or SDSU any incentive to join the American would be a CFP expansion that: (a) doubles the field to 8 teams, and (b) includes some provision like an automatic bid for the top non-A5 team. The A5 conferences might agree to condition (a) within a few years, but if they veto condition (b), it would be extremely difficult for non-A5 teams to earn a CFP bid.

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According to Commissioner Aresco, the recent indications provide little hope for the kind of CFP expansion that might permit the American to attract the top 2 or 3 western FBS schools on its list.

Since the only conferences that might reason to oppose an expansion of the CFP and the proposal to improve opportunities for non-P5 teams would be the P5 conferences themselves, the information suggesting that the CFP expansion proposal is unlikely to be approved in the Spring caused Aresco to voice doubts about whether the strategic plan to transform the AAC into an "autonomous" (A5/P5) conferences by adding a group of western teams remains viable.

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Questions:

1. Given how cloudy the long-term prospects for a future western expansion may now appear to be, how much longer should the AAC wait before taking needed action to prevent a drop in stature from a "Major 7" to a "mid-major" basketball conference?

2. Even some of their FB programs eventually affiliate with the AAC following a CFP expansion, it seems extremely unlikely that BYU, SDSU, and Boise St. will all seek to become all-sports members of the conference.

--Thus, what would the conference have to lose by taking decisive action to replace UConn's BB/olympic programs with a top-notch BB school such as VCU now?

--Given the strength and record of VCU's BB program and its location within a 100 mile radius of a population of 10+ million, ESPN would be certain to approve broadcasting VCU BB as UConn's replacement, and if they're ever requested to broadcast BYU, SDSU, and Boise St. games, they will have every reason to do so, regardless of whether they decide to cover VCU BB.

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