(03-24-2022 09:15 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Not sure where you're getting the 41% from - that # isn't mentioned in the link provided. Also, government regulations only shows up as less than 10% of the primary reason that publicly traded oil producers are restraining growth despite high oil prices.

When you get into the Special Questions Comments, which is where those quotes are from, it seems pretty clear that these executives have a lot of opinions about why the investor pressure to maintain capital discipline is happening. Some of which point towards more generic issues being important (regulations, taxes) and more specific issues (Russia-Ukraine war, COVID-19 shutdowns in China).

Here is the link if you missed it: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surve...-questions

Dude...
100% - 59% =41%. It was somewhat of a joke.

You said 'not quite' to 'capital discipline'... and then gave a text book example of capital discipline.... and your own quote said it was a 'two headed monster' between capital discipline and green initiatives. I simply made a joke that it must therefore be 59% capital discipline (and every other issue you mention above is another example of capital discipline) and the remainder, the 'other head' of that monster.

Regulations and taxes are unknown going forward, but with higher government spending and greens in the ear of the President, I wouldn't be betting on 'lower' regulation and taxes as an investor. The other issues you mention (Russia and China) point to lower oil prices in the future... which means (in terms of capital discipline) that you can't base your ROI of a project on the current price of oil, but of the expectation of the price over the life of the project.

That is very much the point.

Why are there 9,000 unused leases? Generally because they are uneconomical, even at the current higher prices (which are at least partially event driven and thus not permanent) especially when you consider the regulatory and taxation risks.