(10-14-2021 11:31 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 10:22 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 07:50 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 06:27 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-14-2021 05:18 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  what the IRS did with servers was "deem" that their tips were 8% of their tickets. So I often tip in cash after paying for the check with a credit card, hoping to help the worker get a little ahead.

But I think a lot of people have found ways to work off the books, and be officially unemployed while earning cash for work. There was more incentive to do this sort of double dip when the rewards for being "unemployed" were so great.

Still, if somebody has a better explanation for why so many businesses in varying sectors are having trouble finding workers, feel free to advance your opinion. My mind and ears are open.

In a related topic, I don't think Biden's bid to regally solve the supply chain problem by ordering ports to double their shifts will have much effect. First the ports need to double their number of workers and supervisors. Then once the ships are unloaded, the goods will sit in warehouses due to the trucker shortage. Thoughts on this, anybody?

I’ve offered multiple opinions for the lack of workers… you’ve even responded to a few of them! Lol

Maybe the best of them is that people have listened to the doom and gloom that 'if you even look at an infected person you will catch it, shrivel up, and die'.

Enough scare mongering will chase even the bravest away.

But, uh, no ---- I am *sure* it is 'childcare' and 'childcare' alone as the biggest baddest reason to keep away from work. I dont think the biggest, baddest reason for the the deepest and most acute labor shortage I have *ever* seen is simply 'childcare'.

And got to tell you, organized labor has done a bang up job keeping *their* people paid *and* not working.

As an example --- I have to get some warranty work done on my tractor. What should be a 40 min piece of work is now quoted out at needing three weeks. They have the parts. The singular issue is that out of the 6 normal repair personnel in the bays at the John deere dealer, there is one that that is working.

I dont think that the other 5 are empty because of 'childcare' issues.

I specifically mentioned it could be enhanced unemployment - given the continued depression in labor through Sept, that doesn’t seem to be the case. But I said that perhaps people built up enough backlog to hold out.

I specifically mentioned a reduction in immigration - notably in seasonal workers. We reduced our legal immigration pathways for some very obvious reasons, and we have some sectors that rely heavily on those types of immigrants.

There’s also some people who have changed “careers” - those that used the pandemic to springboard out of menial jobs to something different. That’s why I was wondering if attendance at universities and vocational schools increased - that could help prove/disprove that.

I specifically mentioned both child care (both pre- and in primary school care) and fear of infection, which you mention above.

It’s not a single issue causing this, IMO. For some reason, though, you and OO really don’t like the idea that childcare issues caused by the pandemic have impacted the labor market.

Lets take any of the above and apply them to the John Deere 1 out of 6 issue.

"Enhanced unemployment" -- probably not. Ended in Texas two or so months ago.

"reduction in immigration" -- Again, the impact of immigration, legal or otherwise, has zero impact on that shop floor.

'Changed careers' -- not likely.

'Child care' -- not even close.

Now consider this Bill Maher clip on the attitudes fomented by the media:

Again, the thing that is left out in your smorgasbord is the stupid level of angst, horror, and dread that has been drummed up on this.

You think the John Deere issue is related to COVID hysteria? That seems like a really odd take, given that the strike is related to an issue between the union, John Deere, and union members.

I don’t get you right now - I said “fear of infection” in that post as one possible reason, yet you glossed right over it. Did I not embellish it enough and say rightfully or wrongfully? Some people still have complicating circumstances that do make them more susceptible to infection and some are overly paranoid.

I’m currently in NYC - **** is popping and it does not seem to me like people are huddled up in fear. Life very much looks back to normal, just with masks and vaccine checks to help reduce spread.