(10-12-2021 09:16 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(10-12-2021 09:11 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-11-2021 11:50 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-11-2021 10:53 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(10-11-2021 10:35 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Well, the Target employees at the bottom level are mostly very young, so I hope they don't have children yet. As for lack of immigration, there is plenty of immigration, just most of it illegals who are NOT the ones likely to apply to Target for a job subject to withholding.

How is the ongoing pandemic keeping 18-22 year olds from applying for a $15/hr job? They would rather stay home at their parent's and play video games? They are afraid they will die if they work?

Not sure why Target is notably relevant when talking about macro-trends.

Women are not returning to the workforce at the same rate as men, and less are active in the workforce currently than compared to pre-pandemic time periods (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300002). I hypothesize that it's due to general lack of childcare, especially during the pandemic.

Seasonal businesses were slammed by the lack of legal immigrant labor over the summer, which extends into September. You can find countless articles discussing this - the biggest issue was there were less coming into the country due to COVID-19 and travel restrictions (for example, we temporarily suspended J-1 work visas for foreign students - there was some interesting reporting in NC on this and the impacts it was having on the Outer Banks).

I'm not aware of a general lack of 18-22 year olds in the workforce as compared to other age groups, but I'd be interested to hear more. I would ask two questions, are we seeing a lower labor participation rate in that age group compared to pre-pandemic times? If we saw this cohort's rate drop, did we see an increase in university/vocational school attendance?

My "aside" was about Target. You responded to that post.

True - I thought it was clear that my post was in response to the bigger picture and the article you posted, not specifically Target. Apparently not, though.

Quote:Thank you for distinguishing legal immigration. Legal immigrants are more likely to seek higher paying jobs, I think, while illegals are looking more for jobs that pay cash with a wink and a nod. what kind of seasonal work are you referring to? Putting a link to just one of those countless articles would help me a lot.

I don't think this matters in regards to the current labor shortage. A lot of the shortages we experienced this summer were around seasonal positions, especially in the "entertainment" industry. Things like restaurants/bars, tourist shops, etc.

Here's an article from the local NPR station about the issues in the Outer Banks this summer: https://www.wunc.org/business-economy/20...mmer-covid

Quote:Normally he gets six international students to work over the summer.

“And because of the visa challenges, both from a geopolitical standpoint, COVID protocols, and you know, the moratorium that was put down, we are probably only getting one, she will be about a month late,” he said. “So, I am in non-burnout mode for my crew.”

Non-burnout mode for him means making decisions daily about whether to offer takeout, and whether to close one day a week, or even two days a week instead of staying open his normal seven.

We're about to see similar struggles in winter vacation areas:

Quote:Ski resorts have relied on foreign workers before. In December 2019, a survey of 137 ski areas revealed that nearly 52% of those areas used some sort of foreign labor, according to the National Ski Areas Association. The most common visas were J-1s, which provide short-term visas to students, for example, and H-2Bs for temporary nonagricultural workers.

But this year, slow processing and possible vaccine requirements are making obtaining those visas more difficult.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/21/politics/...index.html

Quote:My point remains - market forces, whichever ones you want to credit, are driving wages to, near, or beyond the $15 mark. This will largely negate the $15 MW as a campaign issue, unless the Dems decide then that $15 is no longer a "living wage", and now the MW needs to be $18 or $20 or more. Kind of a textbook example of inflation, which may well supersede the MW as a campaign issue.

Yep, market forces have finally caused a rise in wages because labor has finally found a seat at the table. I agree that this will largely negate the specific $15 MW campaign issue, unless wages start to fall.

Its not that 'labor has ... a seat at the table." I guess that 'seat at the table' will get yanked when many decide to rejoin the working world. In that sense, the rise in wages is more a factor of 'more labor not being at the table' than it 'being at the table'.

Yeah, not the most elegant analogy, but the point remains. Labor is actually exerting its influence in a way that it hasn't for decades.

But it is "at the table" in the sense that some have decided to forgo certain jobs for others, and the pandemic was the primary springboard for that.

But perhaps we'll see some people who are currently out of the labor market because of the expanded benefits jump back in once they run out of reserves they created. I think we're looking at bigger, societal issues, and like I said, I think child care is a big one.