(12-04-2020 07:49 AM)oipirate Wrote:  

(12-04-2020 02:27 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(12-03-2020 09:39 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(12-03-2020 02:01 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(12-03-2020 01:47 PM)ah59396 Wrote:  If Coastal goes undefeated, which would mean beating a top 15 BYU late in the season, they will get in over a 1 loss AAC team. No question.

Of course there is a question.
Your scenario is not an absolute slam dunk.

Coastal beats visiting BYU, they will have a strong case over a 1-loss AAC team; you might even say "probably gets in over..." But it is far from "no question."

Hypotheticals:
- Coastal wins over BYU but it is close or somehow fluky (Z. Wilson out, some last minute weirdness, controversial ref's call). Chants move up to the area BYU is currently at - #13, six spots behind Cincinnati. If Cincinnati loses to Tulsa regular season but avenges that loss in CCG...IF they even drop below Coastal in the first place can leapfrog with revenge win. That's a good debate.
- Even Tulsa with only loss to ranked Oklahoma State (currently #15 in the committee's eyes to Coastal's #18, with upside potential), win over a Cincinnati team ranked higher than the BYU team Coastal beat - higher at gametime and at committee deliberation time. Coastal even stronger case in that one but definitely debated by the committee.
CURRENT FPI Strength of Record, Cincinnati #4, Coastal #13, Tulsa #19
Far from "no question."

I almost forgot how much fun it is to do these resume comparisons...

2020 disclaimer - with the limited OOC matchups, the computer rankings are more disconnected and therefore less valuable than in most years. However, that is not to say they have zero value. Looking at some low-confidence data is better than looking at no data. And the CFP Committee will be looking at some data. I have always said that at least the committee brings SOME data into their beauty pageant, and I feel that is even more true for the comparisons of the non-contract-bowl-conference champions than for the top four...they may care less, but they also do less of the eye-test. Having said that, the lack of connected data might make the Massey Composite relatively more valuable this year, in taking out any oddities of any single system in this less-connected year.

IF Cincinnati and Coastal go undefeated through their CCGs, here are their wins in Massey Composite through games of 28 November (obviously, those they have yet to beat will drop...and for both of them those are at the top of the list, including twice)

Ragin Cajuns: 7,23,23,31,82,83,101,105,106,114,124, FCS average - 72.63
Bearcats: 28,29,29,39,48,53,57,97,117, FCS average - 55.2

ULL would have BYU the best feather in the cap and Louisiana currently ahead of Tulsa with those being doubled up. App-Memphis a wash, but after that the middle and bottom are CLEARLY in Cincinnati's favor, leading to the higher overall strength of schedule to Cincinnati.
That's why Cincinnati currently has the better ESPN FPI "Strength of Record" That BYU game could certainly improve Coastal in that regard, though.
Cincinnati also had more dominating wins - ESPN FPI's "Game Control" ranks Cincinnati #9 to date and Coastal #21. Why does that matter? Well, that's the ESPN advanced stats guys and gals trying to reverse engineer what the heck the committee may have been saying all those times they've used those words and claimed it matters to them.

Interesting discussion with games still to be played.

No idea how much effort but how does it look for BYU resume in comparison to Cincy? While I am interested in Tulsa as well, my guess is Cincy with 6 in the top 60 is looking much better. Which is why they are holding up fairly well in comparison to the P5 especially the ones with fewer games like the Big and PAC who might usually fill in that spot from a weak B12.

I think it's also the single biggest carrot hanging for BYU to join.

1. They lose to Coastal and fall, maybe even out of rankings.
2. They win and still watch other teams jump them while Cincy moves closer to a play off spot.

Either of those happen and BYU strongly starts rethinking independence. Play Utah, two other PAC teams and an AAC schedule and be a legit contender to the play off if they give undefeated. Especially because beating PAC teams (Utah) would weaken a PAC bid meaning Clemson slipping up or the Big Xii struggling like this year puts that 4th spot in contention.

The flip side of this is, if BYU had played their normal schedule this year and gone undefeated they would be in the playoff conversation. The carrot for BYU comes in when they lose just one game. In their current model 1 loss means nothing to play for going forward.

Yeah, I don't think this year tells BYU anything. Just a Covid-19 aberration. With BYU's intended schedule & going undefeated, they'd likely be ahead of Cincy. And see no benefit to joining the AAC (likely their position now).