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(05-21-2020 06:46 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Ok, here's another angle with facts...

[5] Alabama
[2] Clemson
[2] Florida
[2] LSU
[1] Auburn
[1] Florida St
[1] Ohio St
[1] Texas

I posted this upstream - the 8 teams that have won the natty chip over the past 15 seasons. If the chip was a "wide open" affair ripe with outliers and chance/luck should there not be closer to 15 different champions representing more than 4 conferences in FBS? Should there not be a "cinderella" team that won? The current trend is my "theory." Nothing more, nothing less.

OK, I'm still wondering what that has to do with my skepticism at the claim that most teams that are good enough to make the playoffs do not have a shot at actually winning. That's why I've been trying to understand exactly what point you are trying to make. I'm still not sure exactly what your thesis is, but it now seems clear we are talking about 2 different issues.