(04-30-2020 01:50 PM)Seventyniner Wrote:  

(04-29-2020 02:07 PM)ruowls Wrote:  Even if you exclude fans (minimize group 3), you still have an open system with the possibility of transmission into group 1 from group 2 which is a must to conduct a contest.

This is true, but I think the fact that group 3 is generally bigger than groups 1 and 2 combined by ~2 orders of magnitude needs to be taken into account.

I can see games being played in empty stadiums some time this fall, but I don't think there will be the political will to allow tens of thousands of people to congregate on a regular basis. While most people will get the virus at some point if they go back to even a semblance of normal life, such large gatherings increase the possibility of case clumping.

I agree. I was just noting that although group 3 can be much larger at some events, this group usually has very limited contact from the field and can be isolated in the stands. As such, this group poses a more significant risk to itself and if you eliminate fans in the stands, you mostly just eliminate the risk in the stands and the risk to the participants wouldn't change much.