The unofficial online home for fans of the Old Dominion University Monarchs. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

(08-07-2020 07:08 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 04:03 PM)Grommet Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 02:29 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  Wow that is all kinds of terrible. Herd immunity is more likely in the range of 20% not 60% and death rate is between .4% and .6%. So they inflated the fatality rate 3X and and inflated the number infected before herd immunity by 3X. Where the hell are the Twitter COVID police? Based on the correct numbers (or at least more agreed upon numbers) the total number moves from her 2.95 Million to 328K

I haven't looked in quite some time but I agree the death rate seems high from what I remember. Still, I'd like to see your source for covid herd immunity at 20%. 70 is what I remember, and JHU and Mayo both say 60+.

Lots of new info coming out of T-cell studies which have found as many as 50% already have T-cells. When you take that 50% off the table you only need another 20% or so to reach herd. I will see if I can find sources when I get some time to dig.

Additionally, anecdotal evidence from trends in NY, NJ, Italy, and Sweden seem to indicate those places may have reached herd immunity when considering massive early infection rates that now have become nearly non existent.

Edit: Added link
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/e...ce.abd3871

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

I had a whole thing typed out last night, but I ended up not posting after my wife told me I was nuts for jumping back in since the battle lines were drawn and no one is changing sides or even willing to meet in the middle. And she's right, for the most part...but I'm a glutton for punishment.

RE:link, interesting and potentially promising but even the authors admit it's mostly speculation at this point, and unilaterally declaring herd immunity 20% based on speculation is probably not wise.

RE:mortality based on CDC, JHU, and Worldometer, call it 3.25% in the US ( I think it ranged from 3.22 to 3.28). I was flat out wrong there. Again, if you have a link showing .4-.6% I'd enjoy seeing it.