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(04-01-2020 10:00 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(04-01-2020 09:20 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(04-01-2020 09:12 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  Dr Birx, herself, basically said to take those numbers with a grain of salt because they are heavily influenced by NYC data, since that is where most of the cases are coming from. Basically the numbers reflect what would happen if the entire country had an outbreak that mirrored NYC's.

I am very intrigued by the fact that smart people are unable to process the fact that the number of confirmed cases is minute compared to the total number of people infected, and that the numbers we are being given are not reflective of reality. The fact is, as Dr Birx said, doctors can only deal in hard numbers, and those are the numbers that they have, but logic tells us that those numbers are not representative. I suppose whether or not that is a good thing is open to individual opinion, I happen to think that it is a good thing, because I don't suspect we will see massive flare ups on a broad scale if millions already have the virus or the immunity. It also seems that the effects of the virus will be much more significant in large cities, especially those that rely on public transportation.

NYC - where everyone lives on top of each other and moves around via subway and taxi. No adjustments for population density or public transportation in the numbers. Trump is going along with the 200,000 estimate because it sets impossibly high expectations he can easily beat and claim victory.

Trump's not going along with that number, his team engineered it. The IHME model that they referenced and displayed charts from predicts 84K deaths in the US through August. Dr. Birx misrepresented the data from the study and the sources it draws upon, it's not just taking "the information coming out of New York and New Jersey and applying that to potentially other states having the same outcomes" as Dr. Birx stated if you look at the study. She previously misrepresented data from the Imperial College study when the administration was attempting to downplay the virus. But you're right, they seem to have switched tactics so they can claim victory when the actual deaths come in under their own predictions.

Unfortunately thats the MO of the administration. Downplay, downplay, take drastic actions, claim you were first to implement actions, claim victory. Also boost about press conference ratings.