(02-27-2020 10:14 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 09:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 09:41 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(02-26-2020 02:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-26-2020 02:23 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  They are shutting things down because they are seeing what it can do first-hand and understand it isn't just another run of the flu.

If China were to have 50% infection rate and the real death rate say 4% you are looking at nearly 28 million deaths. Being super conservative, say 1% of the infected are in the workforce and left permanently disabled that's 7 million workers shifted from work to some safety net and probably 7 million in the workforce dead assuming greater deaths among the old and young.

Similar rates in the US would be 6.5 million dead and 1.6 million permanently disabled. By comparison deaths in all US wars combined is just under 1.3 million.

Now it isn't time to start being a prepper or hoarding supplies because we have a huge advantage over China. We became aware of it long before it spread all over creation while it was actively spreading there before they realized they were dealing with something new.

North America and Europe are in much better position to contain than China where it has already spread significantly and less developed nations not as equipped to identify, quarantine and support patients even without a vaccine or direct treatment.

But the U.S. is vulnerable. If this virus hits South American hard and migrates into Mexico the security on the Border isn't going to be a political football any longer. It will be a matter of National Security in spades.

Canada would be less of a concern but still a concern since their Western Provinces are much less guarded by either side.

But none of that means absolute security either. How did it get to Italy? And the concerns over one that tested negative while on the cruise ship now testing positive in Australia is also a concern. How many that were exposed traveled before they had symptoms or perhaps they traveled and remained asymptomatic. If so any major international airport host could be incubating the virus right now.

It's all going to be a big wait and see, and a somewhat more anxious one at that.

UPDATE: It's now in Brazil.

In 2018, 2.84 million Americans died from all causes. The odds that this will push that number well over 3 million for 2020 and 2021 are uncomfortably high. Not a certainty by a long shot, but it can't be dismissed out of hand like it could with Ebola or swine flu.

I'm safe though. I don't have to interact with people at my job if I don't want to, my kids are homeschooled, and my wife stockpiles freezer food compulsively anyways. Think I'll tell her to get some chickens so she can keep enjoying her egg addiction while all you suckers are dying in droves.

We should be fine. We are old and retired, can have our groceries delivered if need be and get our pharmaceuticals at the drive through. Our yard is large and I can garden without encountering anyone but rabbits, birds and a few neighborhood cats. We have blueberries and muscadines (think homemade wine), and all we have to fear are relatives who drop by and I can always go Second Hand Lions on them if need be. Telephone, computer, and HD TV with a library of over 300 classic movies will keep us entertained. Now if all of it was in an old missile silo we'd be fixed!

I just retired (7 months ago) from practicing law for 32 years.

We sold our house in Baton Rouge and moved to a three acre place in the Blue Ridge Mountains of rural Southwestern Virginia.

We have our own spring water, have satellite TV and satellite internet. Amazon delivers. We have a barn and a garden, apple trees and pear trees.

We are on a dead end gravel road with only two neighbors, that is off a country road that is off a country road.......