(02-03-2020 09:22 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-03-2020 12:35 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-02-2020 08:39 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(02-01-2020 09:27 AM)Garrettabc Wrote:  I think they could, but really depends on 2 things:

1 Getting better bowl tie ins vs other Power conferences including their own NY6 tie in.

2 Staying together

This succinctly summarizes why they can't: if there are schools in the AAC that develop sufficient value to allow (1), then some or all of those schools will get an invite into the P5 (or else into a former P5 conference leveraging their legacy status to make the best of it that they can), and so (2) won't happen.

Im reminded of Bill Clintons famous---"It depends on what the meaning if "is" is".

Basically, it depends on what a "power conference" is considered to be. In the past, Bruce is absolutely correct. As teams in non-power conferences developed and began to have attractive TV values---they would be absorbed by the power conferences. This skimming of the most valuable schools from the non-power conferences---artificially stunted the natural development of these non-power conferences.

Today---most of the P5 leagues already are bloated. Furthermore, they now have huge "per team" payouts of 30-50 million dollars each. Almost a third of those payouts come from non-media sources (like the CFP) that dont expand when the conference adds members. Thus, the media value of any new member must be about a third higher than the current media payout just for any new addition to be at least revenue neutral. Since most conferences need a motivation to add a new member---the new revenue from the proposed addition probably needs to be well over the "revenue neutral" number so there is a profit incentive to add a new member.

The concepts I discussed above explain why the 2016 Big12 expansion was short circuited and shows us that conventional wisdom may have changed. The Big 12 elected to stand pat because expansion didnt make financial sense. The truth is the current huge payouts enjoyed by the P5---have created an environment where a top end G5 can have 15 to 40 million in media value and still be far below the media value needed to make P5 expansion economically viable for some (or all) P5 conferences. I think your not going to see much poaching of G5s anymore. But this new environment leaves a great deal of room for growth in the G5 conferences with little likelihood of poaching. If a conference can develop----growing organically without suffering constant setbacks from P5 poaching---we might see something that could be called a "power conference" emerge from the current AAC. If you have a conference of teams worth 15-30 million----that kind of conference is getting too big for the major networks to ignore and is entering power conference territory (but its schools are still not valuable enough to draw poachers from the P5).

To be clear---the AAC is never going to be the Big10. They just dont have that type of schools. But I do think its possible for the AAC to get to where its something comparable to what the Big East was in the BCS era. Like I said---it all depends on what the meaning of a "power" is.

The difficulty is getting a geographic niche. And the AAC has to compete with the pros in Houston, Dallas, New Orleans, Tampa, Cincinnati and Philadelphia in addition to the Big 12, SEC and ACC in its territories. So while what you describe is possible, it seems extremely unlikely. And they would have to compete in football while 25-50 million behind in media revenue. Makes it hard to keep coaches.

What might be the best approach would be a Big East type approach. Focus more on basketball and become a true power there where you have 13 man squads instead of 85. The publicity will help draw attention to the football programs.

Its funny you mention that-- Cincinnati has focused on basketball since the 1950s. However, the university has seen its biggest growth in terms of enrollment and fundraising after it went all in for football. A lot of the other AAC schools can probably say the same thing. Its probably market dependent--- Cincinnati, Ohio values high school and college football whereas schools in the northeast only care about the professional game.