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Full Version: 10 years from now, do you think the AAC will be recognized as a “Power” conference?
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I think they could, but really depends on 2 things:

1 Getting better bowl tie ins vs other Power conferences including their own NY6 tie in.

2 Staying together
No
A more pressing question is whether all five of the current Power Conferences will be recognized as Power Conferences.
No.
I don't think the AAC will be a Power conference. I think 6-8 of their teams will be in the Big 16 which will still be a power conference.
Not a chance. If the BXII gets raided, it will backfill with UCF, USF, Cincy, Memphis, Houston, and maybe SMU and Tulane.
History strongly suggests that, over time, two or three AAC programs will stand out from the rest and then leave to join a conference that offers more money and prestige. Happened to the 1970s WAC, and the 1990s MWC, and you could even argue this applies to the SWC and to the original version of Big East football. I see no reason to think it will be any different going forward.
(02-01-2020 10:50 AM)ChrisLords Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think the AAC will be a Power conference. I think 6-8 of their teams will be in the Big 16 which will still be a power conference.

Can you flesh that scenario out to show what all the power conferences look like? Because I can't envision a situation wherein the Big 12 adds that many AAC schools and is still considered a power conference.
I don't think so. I think that the current Power conference structure will probably subtract anyway. Wouldn't be surprised if the AAC is still the tweener conf with some refugees from which ever power conf that gets raided that didn't get picked by stronger conferences.
If the Big12 does not get picked apart, then they would still be a “Power” conference or whatever the term is in that day. If the best schools are picked off, I think the AAC would be in a better position to pick who they want of the remaining schools that would likely consist of KSU, ISU, TTU, Baylor, TCU, WVU. I think the MWC would be in more danger, than the AAC. Besides ESPN is going to want to protect their property, which could see a pay bump and contract extension during that time.
(02-01-2020 11:57 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-01-2020 10:50 AM)ChrisLords Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think the AAC will be a Power conference. I think 6-8 of their teams will be in the Big 16 which will still be a power conference.

Can you flesh that scenario out to show what all the power conferences look like? Because I can't envision a situation wherein the Big 12 adds that many AAC schools and is still considered a power conference.

Most of the Scenario's I've come up with where the Big 12 takes a lot of AAC and other G5 teams is because the other autonomy conferences require it to keep their auto-bid into the CFP.

This expects an expanded CFP to 8 where the P5 each get an auto-bid for their CCG Champions, 1 G5 rep and 2 at large or maybe 5 P5 and 3 at large.

The autonomy conferences have to keep more schools in their ranks than in the G5 so that they can out vote them on things like having an NCAA football playoff.

So anyway here's a model I came up with today. You figure FSU comes loose of the ACC either because ESPN wants it in 2025 or because realignment doesn't happen until the ACC GoR is up in 2036.

In this model, the SEC takes OKL and OKL ST, The B1G takes Kansas and Missouri, which opens up a spot in the SEC, so the SEC takes FSU. The ACC responds by taking TCU as a full member and Texas as a partial member. I moved Vandy over to the SEC west but it maybe Kentucky. Purdue to the East in the B1G and TCU takes FSU's place in the Atlantic. The Big 12 refills with AAC members, BYU, Boise St. and San Diego State.


B1G
-----
East
-----
Indiana
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn State
Purdue
Rutgers

West
-----
Illinois
Iowa
Kansas
Minnesota
Missouri
Nebraska
Northwestern
Wisconsin



SEC
-----
East
-----
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee

West
-----
Arkansas
LSU
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
Vanderbilt



ACC
-----
Coastal
-----
Duke
Georgia Tech
Miami
Pittsburgh
North Carolina
Virginia
Virginia Tech

Atlantic
-----
Boston College
Clemson
Louisville
North Carolina State
Syracuse
Texas Christian
Wake Forest

Notre Dame and Texas - each has a A5 game a year football deal to keep all their other sports in the conference.



Big 16
-----
East
-----
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Iowa State
Memphis
South Florida
Temple
West Virginia

West
-----
Baylor
Boise State
BYU
Houston
Kansas State
San Diego State
SMU
Texas Tech



Pac 12
-----
North
-----
California
Oregon
Oregon state
Stanford
Washington
Washington State

South
-----
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
Southern California
UCLA
Utah



AAC
-----
East
-----
Charlotte
East Carolina
Marshall
ODU
FAU
FIU

West
----
Navy - football only
Rice
Tulane
Tulsa
UTEP
UTSA



MWC
-----
Air Force
Colorado State
Fresno State
Hawaii - football only
Nevada
New Mexico
San Jose State
UNLV
Utah State
Wyoming


Independent
-----
Army


I didn't say this was realistic. To make Texas to the ACC happen, the ACC would have to offer a real sweetheart deal. Like, 2 shares of the ACC network, keep the LHN and ESPN kicking in more for the LHN for the ACC allowing all of Texas's ACC home games to be on the LHN. Maybe even more than that. Like take TCU as a full member and allow for unbalanced conference payments. But the ACC would be desperate losing FSU, so they'd have to make some compromises.

I came up with this model to try and keep the ACC from losing members and still lost FSU.
B-12 picks up 8, solves all thier promblems.
Need bigger ft print, more inventory, LHN becomes quasi conf netwook
Keeps Tex in comfort zone, recruit students, puts B-12 in 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th populated states.
Draws interest from MT & Pac time zones
Separate media contracts & reap what you sow (15 to 20m school )

BYU, Conn, UCF, So Fla, Cin, Buff, Memph, Temple
Hawaii & Hous to Pac 12
(02-01-2020 01:21 PM)Garrettabc Wrote: [ -> ]If the Big12 does not get picked apart, then they would still be a “Power” conference or whatever the term is in that day. If the best schools are picked off, I think the AAC would be in a better position to pick who they want of the remaining schools that would likely consist of KSU, ISU, TTU, Baylor, TCU, WVU. I think the MWC would be in more danger, than the AAC. Besides ESPN is going to want to protect their property, which could see a pay bump and contract extension during that time.

2 huge rules of conference realignment:

(1) Sh*t ALWAYS rolls downhill in conference realignment.

(2) Think like a university president, NOT like a fan.

First, the old Big East thought exactly the way that you did - that if the Pac-16 happened, then they could take the Big 12 leftovers and become stronger.

The old Big East quickly found out that if you’re behind another conference today, you CANNOT leapfrog then. Ultimately, the old Big East was crushed and eventually kicked out of the power structure altogether. Similarly, C-USA thought that they could poach the remnants of the old Big East... and then C-USA got crushed. We can go down the line where the WAC has similar delusions of grandeur of poaching a weakened MWC... and the WAC up getting destroyed entirely. Rest assured, even if the Big 12 collapsed, left behind schools like Iowa State would still have the massive upper hand to poach the AAC and other leagues because they’ll have all of the exit fees, old conference distributions from the NCAA Tournament and bowl games, existing TV contracts and other assets that would dwarf the G5. Sh*t ALWAYS runs downhill in conference realignment.

Second, university presidents make the decisions about who they let into the power structure. On-the-field/court results by themselves aren’t enough: they want the right *institutions* (NOT teams). I’ve said this before, but for all of the changes in conference realignment over the past 20 years, there were 63 “power” schools when the BCS started in 1996... and there is now a grand total of 65 power schools today. After all of that shuffling, the net change was that TCU (who was in the power system in the pre-BCS world), Utah and Louisville got elevated and Temple got downgraded. That’s it: a net change of plus 2. The point is that the system will NOT elevate an entire other conference to the power ranks. That’s simply not happening because we have seen that there is remarkable stasis with the membership of who is a power school and who isn’t.

Power *institutions* are largely flagship schools, other major public schools with flagship-like qualities (such as Texas A&M, UCLA, Michigan State, Purdue, etc.) and some top tier privates with key attributes (such as top academics and/or locations in major markets). There are zero directional public schools in the Power Five and the only true “city” public school in the power ranks is Louisville. (A school like Pitt is essentially a flagship-like research institution that happens to be in a city.) It might sound crazy to sports fans, but the two schools in the AAC that actually look the most like P5 *institutions* (which are different than teams) are Tulane and SMU. Otherwise, the core of the AAC is made up of city and directional public schools. We might see a couple of those schools get invites to the Big 12 eventually (e.g. I could see Cincinnati plus Texas politics getting Houston into the Big 12 someday), but there’s no way that the entire league gets elevated. University presidents are possibly the single most elitist and snobby group of people in all of America.
Interesting scenario despite the admitted implausibility, Chris, but that Big 16 would definitely not be considered a power conference.
(02-01-2020 01:21 PM)Garrettabc Wrote: [ -> ]If the Big12 does not get picked apart, then they would still be a “Power” conference or whatever the term is in that day. If the best schools are picked off, I think the AAC would be in a better position to pick who they want of the remaining schools that would likely consist of KSU, ISU, TTU, Baylor, TCU, WVU. I think the MWC would be in more danger, than the AAC. Besides ESPN is going to want to protect their property, which could see a pay bump and contract extension during that time.

You got that backwards. The remaining Big12 teams will pick who they want from the AAC and the MWC
(02-01-2020 10:57 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote: [ -> ]Not a chance. If the BXII gets raided, it will backfill with UCF, USF, Cincy, Memphis, Houston, and maybe SMU and Tulane.

UConn already walked away.

They were hanging around to see of the AAC could get P5 ball park money on the next TV deal and/or an autobid to a CFP bowl. Neither of that happened and they didn't upgrade their bowl games at all.

Factoring in at least a couple more defections are bound to happen it will be used as an excuse to keep them on the outside.

AAC on the outside however the overall G5 argument for money and access to the playoff as they are regularly in the Top 25.
(02-01-2020 03:03 PM)texoma Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-01-2020 01:21 PM)Garrettabc Wrote: [ -> ]If the Big12 does not get picked apart, then they would still be a “Power” conference or whatever the term is in that day. If the best schools are picked off, I think the AAC would be in a better position to pick who they want of the remaining schools that would likely consist of KSU, ISU, TTU, Baylor, TCU, WVU. I think the MWC would be in more danger, than the AAC. Besides ESPN is going to want to protect their property, which could see a pay bump and contract extension during that time.

You got that backwards. The remaining Big12 teams will pick who they want from the AAC and the MWC

Yes and the XII lest we forget is legally defined as an autonomy conference.

They may have to circle the wagons and limit the new additions to retain a decent per school TV value however. Keep expansion back to 10 with UC, UH, UM and UCF.

They could stay within a standard deviation of ACC money with all that basketball power.
(02-01-2020 01:45 PM)ChrisLords Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-01-2020 11:57 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-01-2020 10:50 AM)ChrisLords Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think the AAC will be a Power conference. I think 6-8 of their teams will be in the Big 16 which will still be a power conference.

Can you flesh that scenario out to show what all the power conferences look like? Because I can't envision a situation wherein the Big 12 adds that many AAC schools and is still considered a power conference.

Most of the Scenario's I've come up with where the Big 12 takes a lot of AAC and other G5 teams is because the other autonomy conferences require it to keep their auto-bid into the CFP.

This expects an expanded CFP to 8 where the P5 each get an auto-bid for their CCG Champions, 1 G5 rep and 2 at large or maybe 5 P5 and 3 at large.

The autonomy conferences have to keep more schools in their ranks than in the G5 so that they can out vote them on things like having an NCAA football playoff.

So anyway here's a model I came up with today. You figure FSU comes loose of the ACC either because ESPN wants it in 2025 or because realignment doesn't happen until the ACC GoR is up in 2036.

In this model, the SEC takes OKL and OKL ST, The B1G takes Kansas and Missouri, which opens up a spot in the SEC, so the SEC takes FSU. The ACC responds by taking TCU as a full member and Texas as a partial member. I moved Vandy over to the SEC west but it maybe Kentucky. Purdue to the East in the B1G and TCU takes FSU's place in the Atlantic. The Big 12 refills with AAC members, BYU, Boise St. and San Diego State.


B1G
-----
East
-----
Indiana
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn State
Purdue
Rutgers

West
-----
Illinois
Iowa
Kansas
Minnesota
Missouri
Nebraska
Northwestern
Wisconsin



SEC
-----
East
-----
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee

West
-----
Arkansas
LSU
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
Vanderbilt



ACC
-----
Coastal
-----
Duke
Georgia Tech
Miami
Pittsburgh
North Carolina
Virginia
Virginia Tech

Atlantic
-----
Boston College
Clemson
Louisville
North Carolina State
Syracuse
Texas Christian
Wake Forest

Notre Dame and Texas - each has a A5 game a year football deal to keep all their other sports in the conference.



Big 16
-----
East
-----
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Iowa State
Memphis
South Florida
Temple
West Virginia

West
-----
Baylor
Boise State
BYU
Houston
Kansas State
San Diego State
SMU
Texas Tech



Pac 12
-----
North
-----
California
Oregon
Oregon state
Stanford
Washington
Washington State

South
-----
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
Southern California
UCLA
Utah



AAC
-----
East
-----
Charlotte
East Carolina
Marshall
ODU
FAU
FIU

West
----
Navy - football only
Rice
Tulane
Tulsa
UTEP
UTSA



MWC
-----
Air Force
Colorado State
Fresno State
Hawaii - football only
Nevada
New Mexico
San Jose State
UNLV
Utah State
Wyoming


Independent
-----
Army


I didn't say this was realistic. To make Texas to the ACC happen, the ACC would have to offer a real sweetheart deal. Like, 2 shares of the ACC network, keep the LHN and ESPN kicking in more for the LHN for the ACC allowing all of Texas's ACC home games to be on the LHN. Maybe even more than that. Like take TCU as a full member and allow for unbalanced conference payments. But the ACC would be desperate losing FSU, so they'd have to make some compromises.

I came up with this model to try and keep the ACC from losing members and still lost FSU.

No way Texas accepts a partial to the ACC ....and BYU, Boise and San Diego State are not in the AAC. Lot of effort for nothing.
Nope
See the No. 13 post in this thread from Frank. Spot-on.

The five comprehensive all-sports power conferences are comprised primarily of large, public state universities with massive endowments, large enrollments, statewide followings and annual athletics departments budgets of $70 million or more. The American will not be that type league 10 years from now — or ever. It's best hope in football is to be as similar to the old Big East as possible (with multiple Top 25 teams, frequent trips to the NY6 bowl and sufficient wins over teams from the P5).

Now, and as I have noted in previous posts, basketball (both men's and women's) and baseball (the other three of the so-called Big Four in college sports) are a different matter. The AAC already offers "characteristics" of a power league in men's hoops and baseball (some would say it is more "power-esque" than the Big Ten in baseball).

The reality is that most folks I talk to reserve the definition of "power" for football and overall resources (i.e., and as I noted: massive endowments, large enrollments, statewide followings and annual athletics departments budgets of $70 million or more). They also take a VERY strict view of this. So, for them, even though BYU football has far more "power elements" than, say, Vanderbilt football (my school) ... because Vanderbilt is a member of a "power league" and BYU is not, they feel VU is "power" and BYU is not. I don't agree with that. I make an exception for a handful of football programs (BYU being one) not in the P5.
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