(01-24-2020 08:38 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-24-2020 08:04 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(01-24-2020 03:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The question in the OP should be in 5 years what 6 teams will have joined the AAC?

Why? Because the revenue disparity between the SEC and Big 10 and everyone else will be so massive that we likely see the current P5 consolidate into a P3 and the AAC picks up six schools 5 of which will be remnants from the P3 consolidation and becomes the 4th P conference in an upper tier of 72-80 schools.

This could happen. It's not too far-fetched.

Well there are some issues to address. Right now the vast majority of blue chip recruits are in the Southeast and Southwest. Because of this the vast majority of championship teams in the last 20 years or so have come from the Southeast and the total number of playoff teams have been dominated by teams from the Southeast and Southwest..

This has led to too much overlap of audience within a 3 to 4 state area in the Southeast. That's not good if you are trying to maximize your national audience in an effort to maximize advertising revenue.

Right now the weakest numbers for gross total revenue, WSJ valuations of economic impact by schools upon their regions, and the poorest attendance and viewership is on the two coasts. So since the ACC is redundant with the SEC in markets where it's football contenders are concerned it means on any given year half of the CFP comes essentially from a 3 state area, it makes sense that if redistribution is to take place that the ACC is most logical one to use to rebalance 3 of the current P conferences.

So if Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame and Syracuse headed to the Big 10 and Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Miami and Louisville headed to the SEC you have two solid conferences of 20 each with a definable and only slightly overlapping boundary.

If Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U., and Texas Tech head to the PAC you get another.

Baylor, West Virginia, Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Wake Forest join Brigham Young, Army, Air Force, and Boise State in the 11 member AAC (goodbye UConn) and there's your 4th 20 member P conference.

Each of the 4 conferences divides into 4 five team divisions and the conferences have semi finals and the champions of the 4 go to the CFP.

No committees, polls, with everything settled on the field. Schools not in the CFP all remain eligible for bowls.

The AAC payouts would have to be elevated to accommodate those coming in from the ACC and Big 12 but if elevated to playing an all P4 schedule the extra content value is there, especially since the conference encompasses the Commander in Chief's competition, brings in Boise and B.Y.U., and incorporates more branding and draws in a much wider market to reach.

Add a West Coast basketball only conference to the Big East for hoops and you have a breakaway group that can monetize its basketball independent of the NCAA which means a lot more money for hoops.

Eighty schools helps to keep the win / loss bell curve more closely akin to what fans expect and everyone profits more than what they get now and in the case of the AAC perhaps a lot more.

Now you have a CFP that is guaranteed to have 3 champions from different regions of the country, and a 4th that could represent a different region, but provides more of an underdog appeal each year, which does attract a different kind of casual viewer. ESPN, or whoever holds the rights to the CFP, has the annual guaranteed breadth of audience reach they desire and need for stronger ad revenues, every game matters all season long since the championships are decided on the field, and from the conference semis through the CFP finals it becomes an annual viewing event.

The bowls provide the backdrop build up for the championship drama.

12 of the ACC schools are elevated in pay to Big 10 and SEC levels. Texas and Oklahoma keep the gang together and join with the PAC group and they all get paid a bit better. And even the those headed to the AAC get paid at a slightly increased level for the 5 leaving current P conferences and the AAC is elevated to those levels.

Make it a win win with nobody in the club now being left out and it becomes workable, especially since ESPN holds all of the rights to the SEC and ACC and AAC and roughly half of the rights to the Big 10 and PAC. Play 9 in conference games and rotate through your conference every 3 years and you still have 3 OOC games to play old rivals if separated.

It's about as good as it could get. I'm guessing the lowest payout would be in the 35 million range for football and everything but basketball and without the NCAA basketball could pull down between 15 to 25 million more per school depending upon the conference.

So Visualize This:

Big 10:

Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia
Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Syracuse
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin


SEC:

Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami, South Carolina
Kentucky, Louisville, N.C. State, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Florida State, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M


PAC:

Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Arizona, Colorado, Texas, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, Washington, Washington State
Arizona State, California, California Los Angeles, Southern Cal, Stanford


AAC:

Air Force, Army, Boise State, Navy, Wake Forest
Boston College, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Temple, West Virginia
Central Florida, East Carolina, Memphis, South Florida, Tulane
Baylor, Brigham Young, Houston, Southern Methodist, Tulsa

This leaves out too many MWC flagship programs - Colorado State, UNLV, New Mexico all are more valuable than say Tulsa or Tulane, who add nothing. Even ECU and Temple would be down the pecking order.