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Full Version: 10 years from now, who is on the right path toward a P5 invite?
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Assuming that the P5 stays intact and looking to expand beyond what it is now. My picks in order:

1 Colorado State - gotta believe the Big12 will look to at least expand to 12 and they are the most ideal choice being in the region and bringing a new media market.

2 Cinci - been making huge strides on the football scene for the last 12 years (maybe longer). I think both the Big12 and ACC would and should take a hard look.

3 USF - I think an extra Florida team in the ACC would not be a bad thing. The academic snobs in the ACC would prefer USF over UCF and their big stadium over a small UCF stadium when FSU, Clemson, Miami, VT, ND come to play. Also would be a decent filler if something happens to FSU.

4 UCF - the Big12 might decide that getting into Florida is the way to go. In that case you go with UCF with their athletic success in football and to a lesser extent basketball.

5 Memphis - for many of the same reasons as Cinci, but with a shorter recent history of football excellence than Cinci.

6 UConn - it’s possible and a total long shot, but the BigTen could decide that another traditionally good basketball school (with a really good women’s program) is something they want especially if football starts to dip in popularity and basketball rises, which at that point it may not matter much if their football stinks (but could improve after 10 years).

7 Houston - If the SEC strikes out poaching the other P5s, then I think it’s logical you expand again toward Texas. UH also fills in the area between College Station and Baton Rouge.

8 Navy/Army/Air Force - I actually like these academies as a football only member and that is kind of the problem, none of the P5s seem interested now in extending an invite as a football only, doubt it happens 10 years from now.

9 Boise St. - same problem as the academies and a geographic outlier for both the Big12 and Pac. Times could change and they could be a real option because their football is so well respected.

10 Tulane - they are on a good recent trajectory in football and basketball, but are playing catch-up to some other names on the list. I’ll assume they stay the course, but barring a Memphis/UCF type of run, I just don’t think their academics and the Louisiana market will be enough for another Power conference to take them.
I would rank them:

1) Cincy
2) BYU
3) Houston
4) Memphis
5) Boise
6) Colorado State
7) San Diego State
8) UCF
9) USF
10) UNLV


But these rankings are very fluid, depending on WHICH P5 was looking for a new member.
(01-21-2020 11:46 AM)Garrettabc Wrote: [ -> ]Assuming that the P5 stays intact and looking to expand beyond what it is now. My picks in order:

1 Colorado State - gotta believe the Big12 will look to at least expand to 12 and they are the most ideal choice being in the region and bringing a new media market.

2 Cinci - been making huge strides on the football scene for the last 12 years (maybe longer). I think both the Big12 and ACC would and should take a hard look.

3 USF - I think an extra Florida team in the ACC would not be a bad thing. The academic snobs in the ACC would prefer USF over UCF and their big stadium over a small UCF stadium when FSU, Clemson, Miami, VT, ND come to play. Also would be a decent filler if something happens to FSU.

4 UCF - the Big12 might decide that getting into Florida is the way to go. In that case you go with UCF with their athletic success in football and to a lesser extent basketball.

5 Memphis - for many of the same reasons as Cinci, but with a shorter recent history of football excellence than Cinci.

6 UConn - it’s possible and a total long shot, but the BigTen could decide that another traditionally good basketball school (with a really good women’s program) is something they want especially if football starts to dip in popularity and basketball rises, which at that point it may not matter much if their football stinks (but could improve after 10 years).

7 Houston - If the SEC strikes out poaching the other P5s, then I think it’s logical you expand again toward Texas. UH also fills in the area between College Station and Baton Rouge.

8 Navy/Army/Air Force - I actually like these academies as a football only member and that is kind of the problem, none of the P5s seem interested now in extending an invite as a football only, doubt it happens 10 years from now.

9 Boise St. - same problem as the academies and a geographic outlier for both the Big12 and Pac. Times could change and they could be a real option because their football is so well respected.

10 Tulane - they are on a good recent trajectory in football and basketball, but are playing catch-up to some other names on the list. I’ll assume they stay the course, but barring a Memphis/UCF type of run, I just don’t think their academics and the Louisiana market will be enough for another Power conference to take them.


None of the above.

These schools would all have to be able to generate a full TV share for themselves, plus give the other 14 conference schools a nice big TV money raise, before they would get a P5 invitation.

None of the listed schools have that ability.
Liberty
(01-21-2020 12:16 PM)dbackjon Wrote: [ -> ]I would rank them:

1) Cincy
2) BYU
3) Houston
4) Memphis
5) Boise
6) Colorado State
7) San Diego State
8) UCF
9) USF
10) UNLV


But these rankings are very fluid, depending on WHICH P5 was looking for a new member.

Yes. UCF and USF would only be of serious interest to the ACC. UNLV only to the Pac 12. Boise only to a Big 12 without Texas and Oklahoma.
I don't see any reason to think the next 10 years will change what the Big 12 concluded:

1. Houston
1. Cincinnati
1. BYU
4. Colorado St., Air Force, SMU, Rice, Tulane, UCF, USF, UConn

Maybe UNLV, San Diego St., Memphis and Temple move into the tie for 4th.
If you look at their rankings in the polls, BYU and Boise are clearly the top outside the P5. Houston, Cincinnati and UCF are the next tier. Everyone else is way behind.

Boise doesn't rank because they don't fit the academic profile of the P5, who are all research universities.
College conferences are not galaxies. They don't have to inevitably expand out toward infinity.

But if any conference did want to expand...

TCU, Utah, and Louisville had drastic increases in donations in the 10 years before getting their P5 invitations.

Donations are #1 on the list of things to look for. Don't look at simple published numbers for athletic spending. Look at how much a program is getting from donors and ticket sales, and whether that money is enough to elevate a program to a median P5 spending level. Don't include money from the university general fund or student fee money.

#2 is just being in the right place at the right time, i.e. dumb luck. If the Big Ten doesn't put up the vacancy sign in 2010 and again a couple of years later, if the Big Ten still had 11 members, then Utah is still in the MWC, West Virginia, Rutgers, and Louisville are still in the AAC, and TCU is either with them in the AAC or still in the MWC.
(01-21-2020 01:38 PM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-21-2020 11:46 AM)Garrettabc Wrote: [ -> ]Assuming that the P5 stays intact and looking to expand beyond what it is now. My picks in order:

1 Colorado State - gotta believe the Big12 will look to at least expand to 12 and they are the most ideal choice being in the region and bringing a new media market.

2 Cinci - been making huge strides on the football scene for the last 12 years (maybe longer). I think both the Big12 and ACC would and should take a hard look.

3 USF - I think an extra Florida team in the ACC would not be a bad thing. The academic snobs in the ACC would prefer USF over UCF and their big stadium over a small UCF stadium when FSU, Clemson, Miami, VT, ND come to play. Also would be a decent filler if something happens to FSU.

4 UCF - the Big12 might decide that getting into Florida is the way to go. In that case you go with UCF with their athletic success in football and to a lesser extent basketball.

5 Memphis - for many of the same reasons as Cinci, but with a shorter recent history of football excellence than Cinci.

6 UConn - it’s possible and a total long shot, but the BigTen could decide that another traditionally good basketball school (with a really good women’s program) is something they want especially if football starts to dip in popularity and basketball rises, which at that point it may not matter much if their football stinks (but could improve after 10 years).

7 Houston - If the SEC strikes out poaching the other P5s, then I think it’s logical you expand again toward Texas. UH also fills in the area between College Station and Baton Rouge.

8 Navy/Army/Air Force - I actually like these academies as a football only member and that is kind of the problem, none of the P5s seem interested now in extending an invite as a football only, doubt it happens 10 years from now.

9 Boise St. - same problem as the academies and a geographic outlier for both the Big12 and Pac. Times could change and they could be a real option because their football is so well respected.

10 Tulane - they are on a good recent trajectory in football and basketball, but are playing catch-up to some other names on the list. I’ll assume they stay the course, but barring a Memphis/UCF type of run, I just don’t think their academics and the Louisiana market will be enough for another Power conference to take them.


None of the above.

These schools would all have to be able to generate a full TV share for themselves, plus give the other 14 conference schools a nice big TV money raise, before they would get a P5 invitation.

None of the listed schools have that ability.

That's the short view, which fails to take into account an institution's ability to grow into a situation and flourish. It's the same narrow thinking shared by our foolish, self-absorbed politicians, those who think the world revolves around them and the two-year election cycle. Dialing for dollars may work for them, but not for the rest of us, because our nation's principal rivals are playing the long game while we dither. Some things just take longer.

"But each of us will get a smaller piece of the pie," you say. Perhaps true at the outset, but then everyone will garner an even bigger slice when the next media contract is signed, because the new whole is larger than the sum of its parts.
(01-21-2020 01:54 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]If you look at their rankings in the polls, BYU and Boise are clearly the top outside the P5. Houston, Cincinnati and UCF are the next tier. Everyone else is way behind.

Boise doesn't rank because they don't fit the academic profile of the P5, who are all research universities.


Boise is an R2 research universities. TCU, Wake Forest and a couple of others in the P5 are R2.
(01-21-2020 02:22 PM)DavidSt Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-21-2020 01:54 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]If you look at their rankings in the polls, BYU and Boise are clearly the top outside the P5. Houston, Cincinnati and UCF are the next tier. Everyone else is way behind.

Boise doesn't rank because they don't fit the academic profile of the P5, who are all research universities.


Boise is an R2 research universities. TCU, Wake Forest and a couple of others in the P5 are R2.

Wake Forest's research ranking reflects that it is an institution of 5,000 undergrads and 3,000 postgrads, with just under 700 academic staff. In a "research per capita" ranking, nothing about Wake would be tier 2. Wake is one of the top 30 universities in the nation. It's just small.

For comparison's sake, Boise is more than triple the size of Wake Forest in students, but has barely more faculty.

While the pure QUANTITY of research dollars pouring into Wake and Boise may be similar (although Wake probably comfortably leads), Wake's small size is indicative that it is a much higher QUALITY academic institution that generates much better research output than Boise State. And that has much more value.
(01-21-2020 02:46 PM)ccd494 Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-21-2020 02:22 PM)DavidSt Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-21-2020 01:54 PM)bullet Wrote: [ -> ]If you look at their rankings in the polls, BYU and Boise are clearly the top outside the P5. Houston, Cincinnati and UCF are the next tier. Everyone else is way behind.

Boise doesn't rank because they don't fit the academic profile of the P5, who are all research universities.


Boise is an R2 research universities. TCU, Wake Forest and a couple of others in the P5 are R2.

Wake Forest's research ranking reflects that it is an institution of 5,000 undergrads and 3,000 postgrads, with just under 700 academic staff. In a "research per capita" ranking, nothing about Wake would be tier 2. Wake is one of the top 30 universities in the nation. It's just small.

For comparison's sake, Boise is more than triple the size of Wake Forest in students, but has barely more faculty.

While the pure QUANTITY of research dollars pouring into Wake and Boise may be similar (although Wake probably comfortably leads), Wake's small size is indicative that it is a much higher QUALITY academic institution that generates much better research output than Boise State. And that has much more value.

And TCU is the 2nd smallest school in the P5 after Wake Forest. Wake Forest was one of the top schools in the AAU's own ranking of non-AAU schools. Were the AAU to decide it had to add 5 schools next year, Wake Forest would be one.
There are only 2 conf that have to expand to survive.

Hous- Pac12 has to get into Tex
BYU- ready now
Conn- draw straight line to B-12
Buffalo- 3rd populous state
UCF- ready now
So Fla-4th populous state
Cin-has earned shot
Haw-14 extra games (2 for1)
Memp- Kansas pick
Temple- B-12 needs 18(give me better fit)

65 is not enough, 7-5 turns 3-8 real fast
(01-21-2020 02:16 PM)colohank Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-21-2020 01:38 PM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-21-2020 11:46 AM)Garrettabc Wrote: [ -> ]Assuming that the P5 stays intact and looking to expand beyond what it is now. My picks in order:

1 Colorado State - gotta believe the Big12 will look to at least expand to 12 and they are the most ideal choice being in the region and bringing a new media market.

2 Cinci - been making huge strides on the football scene for the last 12 years (maybe longer). I think both the Big12 and ACC would and should take a hard look.

3 USF - I think an extra Florida team in the ACC would not be a bad thing. The academic snobs in the ACC would prefer USF over UCF and their big stadium over a small UCF stadium when FSU, Clemson, Miami, VT, ND come to play. Also would be a decent filler if something happens to FSU.

4 UCF - the Big12 might decide that getting into Florida is the way to go. In that case you go with UCF with their athletic success in football and to a lesser extent basketball.

5 Memphis - for many of the same reasons as Cinci, but with a shorter recent history of football excellence than Cinci.

6 UConn - it’s possible and a total long shot, but the BigTen could decide that another traditionally good basketball school (with a really good women’s program) is something they want especially if football starts to dip in popularity and basketball rises, which at that point it may not matter much if their football stinks (but could improve after 10 years).

7 Houston - If the SEC strikes out poaching the other P5s, then I think it’s logical you expand again toward Texas. UH also fills in the area between College Station and Baton Rouge.

8 Navy/Army/Air Force - I actually like these academies as a football only member and that is kind of the problem, none of the P5s seem interested now in extending an invite as a football only, doubt it happens 10 years from now.

9 Boise St. - same problem as the academies and a geographic outlier for both the Big12 and Pac. Times could change and they could be a real option because their football is so well respected.

10 Tulane - they are on a good recent trajectory in football and basketball, but are playing catch-up to some other names on the list. I’ll assume they stay the course, but barring a Memphis/UCF type of run, I just don’t think their academics and the Louisiana market will be enough for another Power conference to take them.


None of the above.

These schools would all have to be able to generate a full TV share for themselves, plus give the other 14 conference schools a nice big TV money raise, before they would get a P5 invitation.

None of the listed schools have that ability.

That's the short view, which fails to take into account an institution's ability to grow into a situation and flourish. It's the same narrow thinking shared by our foolish, self-absorbed politicians, those who think the world revolves around them and the two-year election cycle. Dialing for dollars may work for them, but not for the rest of us, because our nation's principal rivals are playing the long game while we dither. Some things just take longer.

"But each of us will get a smaller piece of the pie," you say. Perhaps true at the outset, but then everyone will garner an even bigger slice when the next media contract is signed, because the new whole is larger than the sum of its parts.

Yes, but which schools will actually grow? We don't know.

In 1980, no one could have guessed that a school that had admitted its first male only 30 years ago (Florida State) and a small private school that had almost shut down its football program due to a lack of popularity (Miami) would dominate college football for the next decade.

In 1976, no one could have guessed that an R2 school that is 2nd in its small, poor state that had never won anything (Louisville) would win 2 national titles in basketball & use its basketball money to hire Howard Schnellenberger and be in the Fiesta Bowl within 15 years.

You don't pick a wife in the 8th grade - you wait to see who matures into the best fit. That's especially true when you're the only logical option (like the Big 12 is for Boise, CSU, Houston, and Memphis).
Cincinnati followed by Houston, Colorado State and BYU. Cincinnati is perhaps the most solid addition. They’re basically an ACC school with the G5 name tag.

The rest lack one or two of many things like academics, brand, low endowments, weak support and power leagues don’t really like to be associated with directional schools (and no, USC and Northwestern don’t count).
If it's the Big 12 expansion, UCF is going to be the number #1 target. We are the 2nd largest school in the nation. Our budget is set to top $70 million next year. The Florida tv plus access to the recruiting location. Already one of the top attendance schools available.
(01-21-2020 03:30 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-21-2020 02:16 PM)colohank Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-21-2020 01:38 PM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-21-2020 11:46 AM)Garrettabc Wrote: [ -> ]Assuming that the P5 stays intact and looking to expand beyond what it is now. My picks in order:

1 Colorado State - gotta believe the Big12 will look to at least expand to 12 and they are the most ideal choice being in the region and bringing a new media market.

2 Cinci - been making huge strides on the football scene for the last 12 years (maybe longer). I think both the Big12 and ACC would and should take a hard look.

3 USF - I think an extra Florida team in the ACC would not be a bad thing. The academic snobs in the ACC would prefer USF over UCF and their big stadium over a small UCF stadium when FSU, Clemson, Miami, VT, ND come to play. Also would be a decent filler if something happens to FSU.

4 UCF - the Big12 might decide that getting into Florida is the way to go. In that case you go with UCF with their athletic success in football and to a lesser extent basketball.

5 Memphis - for many of the same reasons as Cinci, but with a shorter recent history of football excellence than Cinci.

6 UConn - it’s possible and a total long shot, but the BigTen could decide that another traditionally good basketball school (with a really good women’s program) is something they want especially if football starts to dip in popularity and basketball rises, which at that point it may not matter much if their football stinks (but could improve after 10 years).

7 Houston - If the SEC strikes out poaching the other P5s, then I think it’s logical you expand again toward Texas. UH also fills in the area between College Station and Baton Rouge.

8 Navy/Army/Air Force - I actually like these academies as a football only member and that is kind of the problem, none of the P5s seem interested now in extending an invite as a football only, doubt it happens 10 years from now.

9 Boise St. - same problem as the academies and a geographic outlier for both the Big12 and Pac. Times could change and they could be a real option because their football is so well respected.

10 Tulane - they are on a good recent trajectory in football and basketball, but are playing catch-up to some other names on the list. I’ll assume they stay the course, but barring a Memphis/UCF type of run, I just don’t think their academics and the Louisiana market will be enough for another Power conference to take them.


None of the above.

These schools would all have to be able to generate a full TV share for themselves, plus give the other 14 conference schools a nice big TV money raise, before they would get a P5 invitation.

None of the listed schools have that ability.

That's the short view, which fails to take into account an institution's ability to grow into a situation and flourish. It's the same narrow thinking shared by our foolish, self-absorbed politicians, those who think the world revolves around them and the two-year election cycle. Dialing for dollars may work for them, but not for the rest of us, because our nation's principal rivals are playing the long game while we dither. Some things just take longer.

"But each of us will get a smaller piece of the pie," you say. Perhaps true at the outset, but then everyone will garner an even bigger slice when the next media contract is signed, because the new whole is larger than the sum of its parts.

Yes, but which schools will actually grow? We don't know.

In 1980, no one could have guessed that a school that had admitted its first male only 30 years ago (Florida State) and a small private school that had almost shut down its football program due to a lack of popularity (Miami) would dominate college football for the next decade.

In 1976, no one could have guessed that an R2 school that is 2nd in its small, poor state that had never won anything (Louisville) would win 2 national titles in basketball & use its basketball money to hire Howard Schnellenberger and be in the Fiesta Bowl within 15 years.

You don't pick a wife in the 8th grade - you wait to see who matures into the best fit. That's especially true when you're the only logical option (like the Big 12 is for Boise, CSU, Houston, and Memphis).

Louisville was in the final 4 in 1975. It was very nearly an all Kentucky title game, but John Wooden pulled out his magic one last time, squeaking out an OT win vs. UL, announcing his retirement and winning in the final against UK. Their basketball success was not a surprise.
Big 12 Cincy, BYU, UCF, USF, Air Force
Pac 12 Houston
the rest none
(01-21-2020 03:30 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-21-2020 02:16 PM)colohank Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-21-2020 01:38 PM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-21-2020 11:46 AM)Garrettabc Wrote: [ -> ]Assuming that the P5 stays intact and looking to expand beyond what it is now. My picks in order:

1 Colorado State - gotta believe the Big12 will look to at least expand to 12 and they are the most ideal choice being in the region and bringing a new media market.

2 Cinci - been making huge strides on the football scene for the last 12 years (maybe longer). I think both the Big12 and ACC would and should take a hard look.

3 USF - I think an extra Florida team in the ACC would not be a bad thing. The academic snobs in the ACC would prefer USF over UCF and their big stadium over a small UCF stadium when FSU, Clemson, Miami, VT, ND come to play. Also would be a decent filler if something happens to FSU.

4 UCF - the Big12 might decide that getting into Florida is the way to go. In that case you go with UCF with their athletic success in football and to a lesser extent basketball.

5 Memphis - for many of the same reasons as Cinci, but with a shorter recent history of football excellence than Cinci.

6 UConn - it’s possible and a total long shot, but the BigTen could decide that another traditionally good basketball school (with a really good women’s program) is something they want especially if football starts to dip in popularity and basketball rises, which at that point it may not matter much if their football stinks (but could improve after 10 years).

7 Houston - If the SEC strikes out poaching the other P5s, then I think it’s logical you expand again toward Texas. UH also fills in the area between College Station and Baton Rouge.

8 Navy/Army/Air Force - I actually like these academies as a football only member and that is kind of the problem, none of the P5s seem interested now in extending an invite as a football only, doubt it happens 10 years from now.

9 Boise St. - same problem as the academies and a geographic outlier for both the Big12 and Pac. Times could change and they could be a real option because their football is so well respected.

10 Tulane - they are on a good recent trajectory in football and basketball, but are playing catch-up to some other names on the list. I’ll assume they stay the course, but barring a Memphis/UCF type of run, I just don’t think their academics and the Louisiana market will be enough for another Power conference to take them.


None of the above.

These schools would all have to be able to generate a full TV share for themselves, plus give the other 14 conference schools a nice big TV money raise, before they would get a P5 invitation.

None of the listed schools have that ability.

That's the short view, which fails to take into account an institution's ability to grow into a situation and flourish. It's the same narrow thinking shared by our foolish, self-absorbed politicians, those who think the world revolves around them and the two-year election cycle. Dialing for dollars may work for them, but not for the rest of us, because our nation's principal rivals are playing the long game while we dither. Some things just take longer.

"But each of us will get a smaller piece of the pie," you say. Perhaps true at the outset, but then everyone will garner an even bigger slice when the next media contract is signed, because the new whole is larger than the sum of its parts.

Yes, but which schools will actually grow? We don't know.

In 1980, no one could have guessed that a school that had admitted its first male only 30 years ago (Florida State) and a small private school that had almost shut down its football program due to a lack of popularity (Miami) would dominate college football for the next decade.

In 1976, no one could have guessed that an R2 school that is 2nd in its small, poor state that had never won anything (Louisville) would win 2 national titles in basketball & use its basketball money to hire Howard Schnellenberger and be in the Fiesta Bowl within 15 years.

You don't pick a wife in the 8th grade - you wait to see who matures into the best fit. That's especially true when you're the only logical option (like the Big 12 is for Boise, CSU, Houston, and Memphis).
Nobody would have a D3 startup in 1979 playing in 3 NY6 bowls within 40 years either, but we did (UCF)
People way overestimate the importance of media markets for G5 leagues and underestimate their importance for P5 leagues. Media markets are everything when your conference has their own TV network and acquiring a new member can get subscriptions for the network in that new member's metro area. I mean, the Big Ten didn't bring in Mryland and Rutgers to help out football and basketball.

IMO Boise, BYU, and probably Colorado State have no shot.

Houston's problem is that the Houston market almost surely already has the conference networks for the SEC and Big 12 so neither conference will invite them (maybe the ACC would?)

Similar issue with Orlando and Tampa with the ACC and SEC.

In fact, any non-P5 team that shares a State with a P5 team can probably forget about being in that P5 team's conference and can count on being a geographic outlier in any P5 league they're in.
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