(12-02-2019 04:54 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  A couple of weeks ago I posted this research on my football blog, but the basic stats are largely unchanged by recent results:

1. Of the ACC's 6 P5 losses, 4 of them are to one team - current AP #16 Notre Dame. In addition, Pitt lost a close game at #9 Penn State, Duke lost their opener to #3 Alabama, and Miami was edged out by #11 Florida - a total of 7 losses to teams in the top 16. Add Boise State and ACC teams have played a total of 8 ranked non-conference opponents. Unfortunately, "close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades", and the ACC lost all 8 of those games. [Since then, ACC teams have lost to ranked Georgia and Florida; Also, Boise St and App. State have returned to the Top 25 in the interim].

2. By contrast, SEC teams have played just 5 ranked opponents out of conference - #3 Clemson, #6 Oregon, #16 Notre Dame, #18 Memphis and #22 Texas - posting a record of 3-2 against them - not bad, but a difference of just 3 wins is hardly the chasm some would claim. And remember: the ACC scheduled 8 OOC games against current top 25 teams, whereas the SEC only scheduled 5 [Since then the SEC played one more ranked non-conference opponent - Clemson - and lost again].

3. Boston College's home loss to Kansas [was embarrassing... probably contributed to them firing Steve Addazio. I think the only other "embarrassing" loss whas when Georgia Tech lost to The Citadel].

4. Home field advantage is also a big part of the SEC formula. Check out these tables of non-conference results by home/neutral/away:

SEC Wins Losses Win%
Home 30 7 81%
Neutral 4 1 80%
Away 1 4 20%

ACC Wins Losses Win%
Home 26 6 81%
Neutral 1 2 33%
Away 3 6 33%

Broken down this way we see that the ACC has the same win% as the SEC in terms of HOME non-conference games, and the ACC [was] actually a bit better in true AWAY game out-of-conference. However, the SEC pads its wins by playing MORE home games (37 for the SEC versus just 32 for the ACC - with 8 more home games [SEC went 7-1] and just 1 away game [SEC won it] remaining this season for the SEC, while the ACC has 4 more home [went 3-1] and 5 away [went 1-4] OOC games.

Where the SEC shines over the ACC is neutral site win%. The main reasons for this (IMO) are:
the locations: when SEC teams play neutral site games, the site is as close or closer to the SEC school than it is to the opponent's school. This was accentuated in the Oregon/Auburn game, for example.
the matchups: those 5 neutral-site games for the SEC involved Alabama vs. Duke, Auburn vs. Oregon, LSU vs. Texas, Florida vs. Miami and South Carolina vs. North Carolina. Before the season began, tell me which of those was the SEC team an underdog? (answer: none). So controlling the matchups in favor of the SEC is also a big part of it.

4. Quality of wins/losses
If we use my simple formula (P5 win = good win; G5/FCS loss = bad loss), we get this picture:

SEC (6 good wins - 7 bad losses, 46%)
Good Wins
+ LSU 45, Texas 38
+ Missouri 38, West Virginia 7
+ Auburn 27, Oregon 21
+ Florida 24, Miami (FL) 20
+ Alabama 42, Duke 3 *
+ Georgia 23, Notre Dame 17
Bad Losses
- Tennessee 26, BYU 29
- Mississippi 10, Memphis 15
- Missouri 31, Wyoming 37
- Arkansas 24, San Jose St 31
- Vanderbilt 10, UNLV 34
- Tennessee 30, Georgia St 38
- S. Carolina 15, App. State 20
* Yes, according to my rules Alabama's win over Duke is a "good" win.

ACC (3-4, 43%)
Good Wins
+ Boston Coll 30, Rutgers 16
+ N Carolina 24, S Carolina 20
+ Clemson 24, Texas A&M 10
Bad Losses
- Florida St 31, Boise St 36
- Georgia Tech 2, Temple 24
- N Carolina 31, Appalachian St 34
- Georgia Tech 24, Citadel 27
The ACC makes up for Alabama/Duke with BC/Rutgers (sort of - Rutgers is weaker than Duke but BC is not as strong as Alabama, so the relative mismatch is similar). Also, by my rules FSU/BYU and UNC/App State are both "bad" losses (despite both teams being ranked at one point or another). Besides all that, half of the bad losses this season belong to one team - Georgia Tech - who is rebuilding their offense entirely.

When we focus on just good wins/bad losses, we see that the SEC is 6/7, while the ACC is 3/4 (very close).

BOTTOM LINE: While the raw win% numbers do favor the SEC over the ACC, those numbers hide some significant differences in schedules such as...
(a) more and tougher P5 opponents for the ACC,
(b) more home games for the SEC, and
© favorable neutral-site match-ups for the SEC.

IS THE SEC BETTER THAN THE ACC IN FOOTBALL? YES, I THINK SO. IS IT "MILES" BETTER? NO, I DON'T THINK SO. IS THE SEC EVEN THE BEST COLLEGE FOOTBALL CONFERENCE THIS YEAR? IT'S HARD TO SAY SINCE SO MANY BIG TEN TEAMS DIDN'T PLAY ANYBODY OUT-OF-CONFERENCE, BUT I TEND TO THINK THEIRS IS THE BEST AT THE TOP (BUT ALSO THE WORST AT THE BOTTOM!)

Massey Composite:
1. Big 12 44.03
2. SEC 45.53
3. Big 10 48.17
4. Pac 12 50.14
5. ACC 59.15
6. AAC 59.52
7. MWC 74.82
8. SBC 81.13
9. Ind. 85.46
10. CUSA 91.09
11. MAC 93.46

Its quite possible the AAC could pass the ACC this weekend if Navy beats Army and Clemson beats UVA (wouldn't improve Clemson's spot much, but could knock UVA down).