(11-08-2019 08:18 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-07-2019 10:55 PM)EagleNationRising Wrote:  

(11-04-2019 12:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-04-2019 11:23 AM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  Boise best chance for the NY6 game is to have a 2-loss AAC champ which has a really good chance of happening.

I think this is wishful thinking. The AAC is strong, it is likely to have four ranked teams in the CFP tomorrow.

So what that starts is a merry-go-round where one AAC team ahead of Boise loses, but are leap-frogged by the AAC team that beat the first AAC team.

It's like when #8 Georgia plays #6 Florida, and SEC-haters think "well now an SEC team is going to be knocked out of NY6 contention". And Georgia wins, and what happens is Georgia moves up to #6, Florida drops to #9, and basically the SEC is exactly where it was before the game.

The only way the AAC isn't getting the bid is if these top teams like Memphis and Navy and Cincy and SMU lose to *bad* AAC teams, not each other. Boise needs for upsets to happen - USF to beat Memphis, for example, or ECU to beat Cincy, which almost happened but didn't.

And that is unlikely.

All of this leapfrogging disregards the fact that if Boise’s ranking isn’t static. As long as they keep winning, their rank will rise as well. Every week that passes with Boise continuing to win will see a leapfrogging scenario harder and harder. You also have to consider P5 teams that go on a run these last few weeks. Even a small splash in the pool from some of those school will see them inexplicably hop into the rankings. Not to mention the teams that lose that are currently ranked in the 10-20 range. Those losses could actually widen the gap between Boise and the next AAC team, depending on where they drop in the rankings.

No question, the rankings are dynamic and now that the CFP is out we have a clearer picture.

But I don't see Boise rising much via attrition, as their schedule is weak. The CFP has a history of not rewarding rising by attrition much.

And with AAC teams all around them, I think leapfrogging is likely.

But we shall see.