(09-12-2019 02:52 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  If NMSU really is partnering with GCU, they're blind to GCU's issues in the eyes of most universities. GCU is still for-profit in reality; nothing has changed there except some paperwork. They're still banking millions off of low-quality online programs and being bankrolled by a for-profit corporation.

If NMSU is going to partner with anyone, it needs to be Seattle U. or Denver depending on the conference they're approaching. Seattle is the highest quality institution in the WAC, and Denver is the highest in the Summit. Both in big markets, for what that's worth. Seattle might generate some interest in the Big West, WCC, or Big Sky; Denver might generate some interest in the Big Sky and Southland.

The MWC isn't going to expand. They tried with Gonzaga, but no one else makes sense monetarily for now. As we move down the road and TV deals change, that might change as well, but that's the way things are for now. Even if the MWC were to need a full-member, I don't think NMSU is necessarily first in line despite the geographic fit. They had previously flirted with North Texas at some point, and UTEP might be interested. Hard to say since the MWC has fallen some with the loss of Utah, BYU, and TCU. Maybe the Texas schools choose to stay in CUSA with the Texas orientation.

As to the Sun Belt, they've already had a chance to keep NMSU. They knew they were dropping below 12 when they kicked out NMSU and Idaho. They've also previously had Denver as a member, and there's no way they're going to expand all the way to Phoenix for GCU. Unless they lose a member because of a shift higher up the chain, I just don't see them taking NMSU. NMSU would probably be pretty high up the list at this point for them in that situation; there's not many FCS schools with value left. James Madison is really about the only one, and they've been focused on CUSA or higher. Assuming JMU will lower their target, I think they're in before NMSU, but after that, NMSU seems like the best candidate for the Belt. They certainly seem stronger than the other oft-mentioned FCS candidates like Jacksonville St. and Eastern Kentucky. But that's only if they actually need a member, not just because they decide to proactively expand.

NMSU is actually probably the best fit for the Summit right now. They've lost Purdue Fort Wayne (the old IPFW) to the Horizon, leaving only Western Illinois east of the Mississippi. It's a big league stretching from North Dakota to Denver and Tulsa, but NMSU would add value to the league on the Olympic side of things. That would at least stabilize that side for NMSU. Then they're simply left choosing between football independence and hoping for some shakeup while being able to play big dollar buy games or dropping down to FCS like Idaho.

The best overall option seems to be the rumored (but highly unlikely imo) CUSA-Sun Belt swap to get both conferences into the best geographic alignment to control travel. If the western conference ended up with an odd number of members, that's NMSU's chance. Hard to say without knowing which way a few schools would break (mostly thinking Southern Miss, who could go either direction probably).

Simply put:
CUSA East ===> SBC
SBC West ===> CUSA
UTA + UALR => CUSA
CUSA =====> SWC 2.0