I've always thought that one of the strongest forces when it comes to realignment decisions is inertia. College presidents almost always lean toward the status quo in the absence of a compelling reason not to. The only reason compelling enough to move is generally money. Not just some money. Not "I hope more money". But lots of money and very little uncertainty that it will come your way.

For schools like UT and OU, they already have a lot of money, and are raking it in where they are now. Unless a major bump is assured up front, it's going to be hard to move them. Only the SEC and B1G have the ability to do that. And it's going to take someone like ESPN or Fox (or maybe both) committing to give it to them before anything happens.

So which one steps up, and which conference do they offer the deal to first? And with what conditions?