(06-27-2019 01:38 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-27-2019 11:23 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(06-27-2019 11:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-27-2019 09:00 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(06-27-2019 08:26 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  Also the Navy AD would never spin or shade things in a manner favorable to his institutions.

He's certainly going to put the most positive spin on things as possible, but I highly doubt anything he said in that interview turns out to be factually inaccurate. ESPN having the contractual ability to renegotiate is not the same thing as having the ability to outright cancel the deal or just arbitrarily say we are slicing the deal in half. It means there will be a back and forth between the parties where they'll discuss different scenarios and they'll both have to sign off and agree to any changes. I'm sure if ESPN tries to argue something obviously stupid like losing UCONN takes away 40 million a year from the deal that there's some provision for mediation.

I haven't seen anyone claim that ESPN will try to CUT the per-school payout agreed to. I certainly haven't.

What i have combatted is the claim made by several AAC hacks that ESPN will in effect INCREASE the AAC per school payout by paying the same agreed on total money, but now divided 11 ways not 12.

It's one possible outcome of a renegotiation after you get raided. ESPN hasn't done that in the past, but they also haven't been dealing with a school that refuses to backfill if ESPN tells them to do so to keep the contract.

It is a possible outcome, but IMO a very unlikely one, as it implies that ESPN regards the AAC as more valuable without UConn than with them, which beggars belief. Heck, UConn is the AAC's biggest brand name, so if anything, the per-school payout is more likely to go down than up.

I agree with you. I guess it wasn't clear what I was responding to.

*ESPN cutting the contract by more than 1/12* is an unlikely but possible outcome. ESPN doesn't like to do that, presumably because it makes their other partners nervous. But in this case, ESPN could point to unreasonable league behavior justifying a hard line.

It would only happen if the AAC says "Get raided, get a raise!" and refuses ESPN's advice to backfill. Not even "pick someone else", (Bristol wants State but the AAC prefers Tech)--just stiffarm ESPN and provide 5 fewer home football games and a dozen fewer MBB games to televise.

Quote:That said, I think far and away the most likely outcome will be that if the AAC remains at 11, the total amount will be prorated such that ESPN keeps what would have been UConn's share, and the rest of the AAC schools receive the same payout they were scheduled to before UConn left.

Agreed. Provided the other conferences agree, and I expect that they will, at least for a trial period.