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ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
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TodgeRodge Offline
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Post: #21
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 10:13 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 09:55 AM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  also people keep talking about UConn is about to give up $7 million per year, but that is almost certainly not true because all of these TV deals scale so a TV deal that averages $6.9 million over 12 (long) years is not immediately going to pay out $6,9 million per year and then do so for the next 12 years

Underrated point. And the same is likely true of the Big East-Fox contract, which is entering the back half. The first years of the AAC contract are probably pretty close to the last years of the Big East contract.

But don't worry, Big East skeptics, contracts eventually end. Maybe our old deal was as inflated as you thought, and we take a haircut when it's over.

I was not even thinking of the Big East deal entering the back half and thus paying above average....I knew it was at that point, but I was not thinking about that comparison specifically as well since really UConn will not be much of a participant for a couple of years......but it does mean that from a renegotiation stand point the Big East will not be starting with an asking price of "the average", but rather they will want to start with an asking price of "final years + raise" .......which if that happens makes the UConn move suddenly look a lot better especially if it is a 6 or 7 year deal and not a 12 year one.....more so if UConn can get their SNY deal in order

it is interesting that there is still so much friction between the Big East and AAC even though almost no teams in the current AAC had much of anything to do with the Basketball Big East teams, but with this UConn move it looks like that friction is only going to get fanned up to a little fire at least for a few years
(This post was last modified: 06-27-2019 10:23 AM by TodgeRodge.)
06-27-2019 10:22 AM
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jwawker Offline
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Post: #22
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 10:22 AM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 10:13 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 09:55 AM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  also people keep talking about UConn is about to give up $7 million per year, but that is almost certainly not true because all of these TV deals scale so a TV deal that averages $6.9 million over 12 (long) years is not immediately going to pay out $6,9 million per year and then do so for the next 12 years

Underrated point. And the same is likely true of the Big East-Fox contract, which is entering the back half. The first years of the AAC contract are probably pretty close to the last years of the Big East contract.

But don't worry, Big East skeptics, contracts eventually end. Maybe our old deal was as inflated as you thought, and we take a haircut when it's over.

I was not even thinking of the Big East deal entering the back half and thus paying above average....I knew it was at that point, but I was not thinking about that comparison specifically as well since really UConn will not be much of a participant for a couple of years......but it does mean that from a renegotiation stand point the Big East will not be starting with an asking price of "the average", but rather they will want to start with an asking price of "final years + raise" .......which if that happens makes the UConn move suddenly look a lot better especially if it is a 6 or 7 year deal and not a 12 year one.....more so if UConn can get their SNY deal in order

it is interesting that there is still so much friction between the Big East and AAC even though almost no teams in the current AAC had much of anything to do with the Basketball Big East teams, but with this UConn move it looks like that friction is only going to get fanned up to a little fire at least for a few years

Yes. I don't see an AAC - Big East Basketball Challenge happening anytime soon, that's for sure.
06-27-2019 10:37 AM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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Post: #23
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-26-2019 09:26 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 08:53 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  If the AAC is smart they will use this opportunity to get their inventory off of espn+, and sell it to the NFL Network. They may make a little less money, but at least their content would be on a linear network, and not relegated to the invisible realm of streaming.

This wouldn’t be an open market situation. This is just a reopening of the compensation portion of the contract based on a change in the membership triggered by the contracts composition clause. It’s basically just a contingency clause built into an agreement. It’s not an opportunity for the AAC to bring in other bidders. I’m sure there is some sort of remedy if the two sides can’t reach a satisfactory agreement during the “fair negotiations”—-likely some sort of mediation or formula based adjustment.

That is too bad. I don't think most programs in the AAC are going to enjoy it if some of their meaningful game are relegated to streaming.
06-27-2019 10:46 AM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #24
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 09:00 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 08:26 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 07:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 07:22 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  Sports Business Journal’s John Ourand reports in latest newsletter that ESPN now has the right to renegotiate the terms of the 12-year, $1 billion deal it signed with the conference back in March. Ourand writes that ESPN has a clause in the contract that allows it to open up the deal if a school left the conference.

This makes perfect sense, and I posted this link earlier this morning.

But don't expect sensible replies - i got about four replies from AAC fanboys saying that this story is trumped by the Navy AD's vague tweet in response to a vague question about UConn leaving and revenue distribution.

Apparently, the Navy AD Knows All, LOL. 07-coffee3

Also the Navy AD would never spin or shade things in a manner favorable to his institutions.

He's certainly going to put the most positive spin on things as possible, but I highly doubt anything he said in that interview turns out to be factually inaccurate. ESPN having the contractual ability to renegotiate is not the same thing as having the ability to outright cancel the deal or just arbitrarily say we are slicing the deal in half. It means there will be a back and forth between the parties where they'll discuss different scenarios and they'll both have to sign off and agree to any changes. I'm sure if ESPN tries to argue something obviously stupid like losing UCONN takes away 40 million a year from the deal that there's some provision for mediation.

I haven't seen anyone claim that ESPN will try to CUT the per-school payout agreed to. I certainly haven't.

What i have combatted is the claim made by several AAC hacks that ESPN will in effect INCREASE the AAC per school payout by paying the same agreed on total money, but now divided 11 ways not 12.
(This post was last modified: 06-27-2019 11:10 AM by quo vadis.)
06-27-2019 11:10 AM
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johnbragg Online
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Post: #25
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 10:37 AM)jwawker Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 10:22 AM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 10:13 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 09:55 AM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  also people keep talking about UConn is about to give up $7 million per year, but that is almost certainly not true because all of these TV deals scale so a TV deal that averages $6.9 million over 12 (long) years is not immediately going to pay out $6,9 million per year and then do so for the next 12 years

Underrated point. And the same is likely true of the Big East-Fox contract, which is entering the back half. The first years of the AAC contract are probably pretty close to the last years of the Big East contract.

But don't worry, Big East skeptics, contracts eventually end. Maybe our old deal was as inflated as you thought, and we take a haircut when it's over.

I was not even thinking of the Big East deal entering the back half and thus paying above average....I knew it was at that point, but I was not thinking about that comparison specifically as well since really UConn will not be much of a participant for a couple of years......but it does mean that from a renegotiation stand point the Big East will not be starting with an asking price of "the average", but rather they will want to start with an asking price of "final years + raise" .......which if that happens makes the UConn move suddenly look a lot better especially if it is a 6 or 7 year deal and not a 12 year one.....more so if UConn can get their SNY deal in order

it is interesting that there is still so much friction between the Big East and AAC even though almost no teams in the current AAC had much of anything to do with the Basketball Big East teams, but with this UConn move it looks like that friction is only going to get fanned up to a little fire at least for a few years

Yes. I don't see an AAC - Big East Basketball Challenge happening anytime soon, that's for sure.

That's not really due to friction, that's due to the fact that it isn't a good match for us. There are 4-6 good matchups, half of which get played anyway, then it gets pretty dicey

Xavier-Cincinnati
Temple-Villanova
UConn-Providence
Wichita-Creighton (should happen anyway)
Then maybe you can put together one matchup that people would want to see. It's not (just) that we're above you--your fanbases don't care much about our schools, either. If Tulane beats DePaul or USF beats St John's, are you excited? Do you even notice?
06-27-2019 11:21 AM
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johnbragg Online
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Post: #26
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 11:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 09:00 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 08:26 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 07:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 07:22 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  Sports Business Journal’s John Ourand reports in latest newsletter that ESPN now has the right to renegotiate the terms of the 12-year, $1 billion deal it signed with the conference back in March. Ourand writes that ESPN has a clause in the contract that allows it to open up the deal if a school left the conference.

This makes perfect sense, and I posted this link earlier this morning.

But don't expect sensible replies - i got about four replies from AAC fanboys saying that this story is trumped by the Navy AD's vague tweet in response to a vague question about UConn leaving and revenue distribution.

Apparently, the Navy AD Knows All, LOL. 07-coffee3

Also the Navy AD would never spin or shade things in a manner favorable to his institutions.

He's certainly going to put the most positive spin on things as possible, but I highly doubt anything he said in that interview turns out to be factually inaccurate. ESPN having the contractual ability to renegotiate is not the same thing as having the ability to outright cancel the deal or just arbitrarily say we are slicing the deal in half. It means there will be a back and forth between the parties where they'll discuss different scenarios and they'll both have to sign off and agree to any changes. I'm sure if ESPN tries to argue something obviously stupid like losing UCONN takes away 40 million a year from the deal that there's some provision for mediation.

I haven't seen anyone claim that ESPN will try to CUT the per-school payout agreed to. I certainly haven't.

What i have combatted is the claim made by several AAC hacks that ESPN will in effect INCREASE the AAC per school payout by paying the same agreed on total money, but now divided 11 ways not 12.

It's one possible outcome of a renegotiation after you get raided. ESPN hasn't done that in the past, but they also haven't been dealing with a school that refuses to backfill if ESPN tells them to do so to keep the contract.
06-27-2019 11:23 AM
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Tigersmoke4 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 11:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 09:00 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 08:26 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 07:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 07:22 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  Sports Business Journal’s John Ourand reports in latest newsletter that ESPN now has the right to renegotiate the terms of the 12-year, $1 billion deal it signed with the conference back in March. Ourand writes that ESPN has a clause in the contract that allows it to open up the deal if a school left the conference.

This makes perfect sense, and I posted this link earlier this morning.

But don't expect sensible replies - i got about four replies from AAC fanboys saying that this story is trumped by the Navy AD's vague tweet in response to a vague question about UConn leaving and revenue distribution.

Apparently, the Navy AD Knows All, LOL. 07-coffee3

Also the Navy AD would never spin or shade things in a manner favorable to his institutions.

He's certainly going to put the most positive spin on things as possible, but I highly doubt anything he said in that interview turns out to be factually inaccurate. ESPN having the contractual ability to renegotiate is not the same thing as having the ability to outright cancel the deal or just arbitrarily say we are slicing the deal in half. It means there will be a back and forth between the parties where they'll discuss different scenarios and they'll both have to sign off and agree to any changes. I'm sure if ESPN tries to argue something obviously stupid like losing UCONN takes away 40 million a year from the deal that there's some provision for mediation.

I haven't seen anyone claim that ESPN will try to CUT the per-school payout agreed to. I certainly haven't.

What i have combatted is the claim made by several AAC hacks that ESPN will in effect INCREASE the AAC per school payout by paying the same agreed on total money, but now divided 11 ways not 12.

Really?? You've "combated " AAC fanboys for believing the comments of the Navy AD over you and your excessive need to hate all things American. Truth be told no one actually knows what the AAC and ESPN are pow wowing about right now. I think anyone with an iota of common sense would err on the side of an actual conference AD over some predictable maniacal broken record . The real question is WTF difference does it make to you. Me personally I can say I don't give a fart about what happens to UCONN and the NBE, but I also can say that I'm happy that they are back together . If the union proves fruitful great and if it doesn't sorry for you, nothing more and nothing less. 07-coffee3
06-27-2019 11:32 AM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #28
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 10:04 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 09:00 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 08:26 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 07:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 07:22 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  Sports Business Journal’s John Ourand reports in latest newsletter that ESPN now has the right to renegotiate the terms of the 12-year, $1 billion deal it signed with the conference back in March. Ourand writes that ESPN has a clause in the contract that allows it to open up the deal if a school left the conference.

This makes perfect sense, and I posted this link earlier this morning.

But don't expect sensible replies - i got about four replies from AAC fanboys saying that this story is trumped by the Navy AD's vague tweet in response to a vague question about UConn leaving and revenue distribution.

Apparently, the Navy AD Knows All, LOL. 07-coffee3

Also the Navy AD would never spin or shade things in a manner favorable to his institutions.

He's certainly going to put the most positive spin on things as possible, but I highly doubt anything he said in that interview turns out to be factually inaccurate.

Agreed. He's not going to flat out lie. "AAC divides the contract by 11 instead of 12, everybody goes to Sizzler" is almost certainly one option that the current contract provides for, if ESPN is amenable to that. AAC can certainly suggest that to ESPN.

Quote:ESPN having the contractual ability to renegotiate is not the same thing as having the ability to outright cancel the deal or just arbitrarily say we are slicing the deal in half. It means there will be a back and forth between the parties where they'll discuss different scenarios and they'll both have to sign off and agree to any changes.

Yes. And ESPN doesn't have a history of slashing these deals mid-contract, in situations where they probably could. It's not worth the pennies to them, considering the damage it does to their relationships with other leagues.

But I don't think other leagues would get the jitters at ESPN saying "The AAC per school payout stays the same with the loss of UConn." Either ESPN mandates a replacement of UConn (a warm body so that the AAC meets the numbers of games specified in the contract) or ESPN leans on the AAC to reduce the contract amounts by 1/12.

If the AAC isn't amenable to that (not gonna happen, but if), *THEN* Espn might start using the full power of their legal ability to renegotiate the deal. Partially because ESPN can say to other leagues, it was the AAC that was unreasonable here, not Bristol. You don't get raided and then get a RAISE on a contract that hasn't come into effect yet.

Quote:I'm sure if ESPN tries to argue something obviously stupid like losing UCONN takes away 40 million a year from the deal that there's some provision for mediation.

Probably so. And I don't think ESPN does that, unless the AAC spits in ESPN's face (expecting a per-school raise for getting raided).

OR, if not a mediation provision, conditions where one side can void the deal if there's an impasse.

The Navy AD never actually said the contract will stay the exact same and just divide it 11 ways instead of 12. His quotes were

"The ratio of interest by ESPN on the AAC, it was overwhelming in football. … I don’t think losing UConn is going to affect us to any degree of any significance.”

Navy AD Gladchuk: "It means there’s one less distribution to make. It means we get a little more of the revenue sharing. Anyone that comes in has got to be a plus rather than a fiscal detriment.”

"I don’t think we bring in anybody that doesn’t add value. That’ll be my vote. I don’t think we fill to fill. I have no interest in that.

In the first quote he didn't say he doesn't think the TV deal will change at all, just that he doesn't think it will affect the league to any significant degree (likely meaning decreasing the payout per team). The second quote about the 1 less distribution to make I think he's actually referring to the league distributions as a whole and not just the TV deal (although to be fair it's not super clear). That's not wrong the G5 pool along with tournament credits and every other league distribution would go up with 1 less team to give it to. The third quote is just the likely truth, and probably the way ESPN feels as well. I don't think they particularly have the urge to have the AAC add a team just because unless they bring value.
06-27-2019 12:44 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #29
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 12:44 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 10:04 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 09:00 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 08:26 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 07:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  This makes perfect sense, and I posted this link earlier this morning.

But don't expect sensible replies - i got about four replies from AAC fanboys saying that this story is trumped by the Navy AD's vague tweet in response to a vague question about UConn leaving and revenue distribution.

Apparently, the Navy AD Knows All, LOL. 07-coffee3

Also the Navy AD would never spin or shade things in a manner favorable to his institutions.

He's certainly going to put the most positive spin on things as possible, but I highly doubt anything he said in that interview turns out to be factually inaccurate.

Agreed. He's not going to flat out lie. "AAC divides the contract by 11 instead of 12, everybody goes to Sizzler" is almost certainly one option that the current contract provides for, if ESPN is amenable to that. AAC can certainly suggest that to ESPN.

Quote:ESPN having the contractual ability to renegotiate is not the same thing as having the ability to outright cancel the deal or just arbitrarily say we are slicing the deal in half. It means there will be a back and forth between the parties where they'll discuss different scenarios and they'll both have to sign off and agree to any changes.

Yes. And ESPN doesn't have a history of slashing these deals mid-contract, in situations where they probably could. It's not worth the pennies to them, considering the damage it does to their relationships with other leagues.

But I don't think other leagues would get the jitters at ESPN saying "The AAC per school payout stays the same with the loss of UConn." Either ESPN mandates a replacement of UConn (a warm body so that the AAC meets the numbers of games specified in the contract) or ESPN leans on the AAC to reduce the contract amounts by 1/12.

If the AAC isn't amenable to that (not gonna happen, but if), *THEN* Espn might start using the full power of their legal ability to renegotiate the deal. Partially because ESPN can say to other leagues, it was the AAC that was unreasonable here, not Bristol. You don't get raided and then get a RAISE on a contract that hasn't come into effect yet.

Quote:I'm sure if ESPN tries to argue something obviously stupid like losing UCONN takes away 40 million a year from the deal that there's some provision for mediation.

Probably so. And I don't think ESPN does that, unless the AAC spits in ESPN's face (expecting a per-school raise for getting raided).

OR, if not a mediation provision, conditions where one side can void the deal if there's an impasse.

The Navy AD never actually said the contract will stay the exact same and just divide it 11 ways instead of 12. His quotes were

"The ratio of interest by ESPN on the AAC, it was overwhelming in football. … I don’t think losing UConn is going to affect us to any degree of any significance.”

Navy AD Gladchuk: "It means there’s one less distribution to make. It means we get a little more of the revenue sharing. Anyone that comes in has got to be a plus rather than a fiscal detriment.”

"I don’t think we bring in anybody that doesn’t add value. That’ll be my vote. I don’t think we fill to fill. I have no interest in that.

In the first quote he didn't say he doesn't think the TV deal will change at all, just that he doesn't think it will affect the league to any significant degree (likely meaning decreasing the payout per team). The second quote about the 1 less distribution to make I think he's actually referring to the league distributions as a whole and not just the TV deal (although to be fair it's not super clear). That's not wrong the G5 pool along with tournament credits and every other league distribution would go up with 1 less team to give it to. The third quote is just the likely truth, and probably the way ESPN feels as well. I don't think they particularly have the urge to have the AAC add a team just because unless they bring value.

Good analysis. 04-cheers
06-27-2019 01:07 PM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #30
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 11:23 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 11:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 09:00 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 08:26 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 07:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  This makes perfect sense, and I posted this link earlier this morning.

But don't expect sensible replies - i got about four replies from AAC fanboys saying that this story is trumped by the Navy AD's vague tweet in response to a vague question about UConn leaving and revenue distribution.

Apparently, the Navy AD Knows All, LOL. 07-coffee3

Also the Navy AD would never spin or shade things in a manner favorable to his institutions.

He's certainly going to put the most positive spin on things as possible, but I highly doubt anything he said in that interview turns out to be factually inaccurate. ESPN having the contractual ability to renegotiate is not the same thing as having the ability to outright cancel the deal or just arbitrarily say we are slicing the deal in half. It means there will be a back and forth between the parties where they'll discuss different scenarios and they'll both have to sign off and agree to any changes. I'm sure if ESPN tries to argue something obviously stupid like losing UCONN takes away 40 million a year from the deal that there's some provision for mediation.

I haven't seen anyone claim that ESPN will try to CUT the per-school payout agreed to. I certainly haven't.

What i have combatted is the claim made by several AAC hacks that ESPN will in effect INCREASE the AAC per school payout by paying the same agreed on total money, but now divided 11 ways not 12.

It's one possible outcome of a renegotiation after you get raided. ESPN hasn't done that in the past, but they also haven't been dealing with a school that refuses to backfill if ESPN tells them to do so to keep the contract.

It is a possible outcome, but IMO a very unlikely one, as it implies that ESPN regards the AAC as more valuable without UConn than with them, which beggars belief. Heck, UConn is the AAC's biggest brand name, so if anything, the per-school payout is more likely to go down than up.

That said, I think far and away the most likely outcome will be that if the AAC remains at 11, the total amount will be prorated such that ESPN keeps what would have been UConn's share, and the rest of the AAC schools receive the same payout they were scheduled to before UConn left.
06-27-2019 01:38 PM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #31
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 11:32 AM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 11:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 09:00 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 08:26 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 07:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  This makes perfect sense, and I posted this link earlier this morning.

But don't expect sensible replies - i got about four replies from AAC fanboys saying that this story is trumped by the Navy AD's vague tweet in response to a vague question about UConn leaving and revenue distribution.

Apparently, the Navy AD Knows All, LOL. 07-coffee3

Also the Navy AD would never spin or shade things in a manner favorable to his institutions.

He's certainly going to put the most positive spin on things as possible, but I highly doubt anything he said in that interview turns out to be factually inaccurate. ESPN having the contractual ability to renegotiate is not the same thing as having the ability to outright cancel the deal or just arbitrarily say we are slicing the deal in half. It means there will be a back and forth between the parties where they'll discuss different scenarios and they'll both have to sign off and agree to any changes. I'm sure if ESPN tries to argue something obviously stupid like losing UCONN takes away 40 million a year from the deal that there's some provision for mediation.

I haven't seen anyone claim that ESPN will try to CUT the per-school payout agreed to. I certainly haven't.

What i have combatted is the claim made by several AAC hacks that ESPN will in effect INCREASE the AAC per school payout by paying the same agreed on total money, but now divided 11 ways not 12.

Really?? You've "combated " AAC fanboys for believing the comments of the Navy AD over you and your excessive need to hate all things American. Truth be told no one actually knows what the AAC and ESPN are pow wowing about right now. I think anyone with an iota of common sense would err on the side of an actual conference AD over some predictable maniacal broken record . The real question is WTF difference does it make to you. Me personally I can say I don't give a fart about what happens to UCONN and the NBE, but I also can say that I'm happy that they are back together . If the union proves fruitful great and if it doesn't sorry for you, nothing more and nothing less. 07-coffee3

I probably have more interest in this situation than just about anyone here, because I support two schools, one in the Big East and one in the AAC.

Believe me, I *wish* the hack/fanboy interpretation of the Navy AD's off-the-cuff vague comments were more reliable than an article in Sports Business Journal, as USF would then benefit, but I can't.

Especially when the SBJ article is on the side of common sense. 07-coffee3
06-27-2019 01:41 PM
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Post: #32
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 01:07 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 12:44 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 10:04 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 09:00 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 08:26 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  Also the Navy AD would never spin or shade things in a manner favorable to his institutions.

He's certainly going to put the most positive spin on things as possible, but I highly doubt anything he said in that interview turns out to be factually inaccurate.

Agreed. He's not going to flat out lie. "AAC divides the contract by 11 instead of 12, everybody goes to Sizzler" is almost certainly one option that the current contract provides for, if ESPN is amenable to that. AAC can certainly suggest that to ESPN.

Quote:ESPN having the contractual ability to renegotiate is not the same thing as having the ability to outright cancel the deal or just arbitrarily say we are slicing the deal in half. It means there will be a back and forth between the parties where they'll discuss different scenarios and they'll both have to sign off and agree to any changes.

Yes. And ESPN doesn't have a history of slashing these deals mid-contract, in situations where they probably could. It's not worth the pennies to them, considering the damage it does to their relationships with other leagues.

But I don't think other leagues would get the jitters at ESPN saying "The AAC per school payout stays the same with the loss of UConn." Either ESPN mandates a replacement of UConn (a warm body so that the AAC meets the numbers of games specified in the contract) or ESPN leans on the AAC to reduce the contract amounts by 1/12.

If the AAC isn't amenable to that (not gonna happen, but if), *THEN* Espn might start using the full power of their legal ability to renegotiate the deal. Partially because ESPN can say to other leagues, it was the AAC that was unreasonable here, not Bristol. You don't get raided and then get a RAISE on a contract that hasn't come into effect yet.

Quote:I'm sure if ESPN tries to argue something obviously stupid like losing UCONN takes away 40 million a year from the deal that there's some provision for mediation.

Probably so. And I don't think ESPN does that, unless the AAC spits in ESPN's face (expecting a per-school raise for getting raided).

OR, if not a mediation provision, conditions where one side can void the deal if there's an impasse.

The Navy AD never actually said the contract will stay the exact same and just divide it 11 ways instead of 12. His quotes were

"The ratio of interest by ESPN on the AAC, it was overwhelming in football. … I don’t think losing UConn is going to affect us to any degree of any significance.”

Navy AD Gladchuk: "It means there’s one less distribution to make. It means we get a little more of the revenue sharing. Anyone that comes in has got to be a plus rather than a fiscal detriment.”

"I don’t think we bring in anybody that doesn’t add value. That’ll be my vote. I don’t think we fill to fill. I have no interest in that.

In the first quote he didn't say he doesn't think the TV deal will change at all, just that he doesn't think it will affect the league to any significant degree (likely meaning decreasing the payout per team). The second quote about the 1 less distribution to make I think he's actually referring to the league distributions as a whole and not just the TV deal (although to be fair it's not super clear). That's not wrong the G5 pool along with tournament credits and every other league distribution would go up with 1 less team to give it to. The third quote is just the likely truth, and probably the way ESPN feels as well. I don't think they particularly have the urge to have the AAC add a team just because unless they bring value.

Good analysis. 04-cheers

In a whole bunch of words, he's basically saying what I've been saying - that the Navy AD's comments are too vague for fanboys to have latched on to them as meaning that the total ESPN payout will remain the same, and everyone will now get a raise because it is being divided 11 ways not 12.

The fanboy interpretation may in fact prove to be correct and the 11 remainders may in fact get this "raise", but these vague comments by one AD is not solid evidence to support it, and it defies common sense.
(This post was last modified: 06-27-2019 01:45 PM by quo vadis.)
06-27-2019 01:44 PM
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slhNavy91 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 01:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 11:32 AM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 11:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 09:00 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 08:26 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  Also the Navy AD would never spin or shade things in a manner favorable to his institutions.

He's certainly going to put the most positive spin on things as possible, but I highly doubt anything he said in that interview turns out to be factually inaccurate. ESPN having the contractual ability to renegotiate is not the same thing as having the ability to outright cancel the deal or just arbitrarily say we are slicing the deal in half. It means there will be a back and forth between the parties where they'll discuss different scenarios and they'll both have to sign off and agree to any changes. I'm sure if ESPN tries to argue something obviously stupid like losing UCONN takes away 40 million a year from the deal that there's some provision for mediation.

I haven't seen anyone claim that ESPN will try to CUT the per-school payout agreed to. I certainly haven't.

What i have combatted is the claim made by several AAC hacks that ESPN will in effect INCREASE the AAC per school payout by paying the same agreed on total money, but now divided 11 ways not 12.

Really?? You've "combated " AAC fanboys for believing the comments of the Navy AD over you and your excessive need to hate all things American. Truth be told no one actually knows what the AAC and ESPN are pow wowing about right now. I think anyone with an iota of common sense would err on the side of an actual conference AD over some predictable maniacal broken record . The real question is WTF difference does it make to you. Me personally I can say I don't give a fart about what happens to UCONN and the NBE, but I also can say that I'm happy that they are back together . If the union proves fruitful great and if it doesn't sorry for you, nothing more and nothing less. 07-coffee3

I probably have more interest in this situation than just about anyone here, because I support two schools, one in the Big East and one in the AAC.

Believe me, I *wish* the hack/fanboy interpretation of the Navy AD's off-the-cuff vague comments were more reliable than an article in Sports Business Journal, as USF would then benefit, but I can't.

Especially when the SBJ article is on the side of common sense. 07-coffee3

Do you mean the SBJ article that said "The fact that ESPN included the clause in its contract does not mean that the network definitely will open up the deal, which goes into effect with the 2020-21 season. After all, football is the main driver of these media deals, and UConn’s football performance over the last decade has been awful...Sources told me that ESPN will wait and see how -- and if -- the AAC fills the spot vacated by UConn." ? Because that's what Ourand said.
(This post was last modified: 06-27-2019 01:49 PM by slhNavy91.)
06-27-2019 01:48 PM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #34
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 01:48 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 11:32 AM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 11:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 09:00 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  He's certainly going to put the most positive spin on things as possible, but I highly doubt anything he said in that interview turns out to be factually inaccurate. ESPN having the contractual ability to renegotiate is not the same thing as having the ability to outright cancel the deal or just arbitrarily say we are slicing the deal in half. It means there will be a back and forth between the parties where they'll discuss different scenarios and they'll both have to sign off and agree to any changes. I'm sure if ESPN tries to argue something obviously stupid like losing UCONN takes away 40 million a year from the deal that there's some provision for mediation.

I haven't seen anyone claim that ESPN will try to CUT the per-school payout agreed to. I certainly haven't.

What i have combatted is the claim made by several AAC hacks that ESPN will in effect INCREASE the AAC per school payout by paying the same agreed on total money, but now divided 11 ways not 12.

Really?? You've "combated " AAC fanboys for believing the comments of the Navy AD over you and your excessive need to hate all things American. Truth be told no one actually knows what the AAC and ESPN are pow wowing about right now. I think anyone with an iota of common sense would err on the side of an actual conference AD over some predictable maniacal broken record . The real question is WTF difference does it make to you. Me personally I can say I don't give a fart about what happens to UCONN and the NBE, but I also can say that I'm happy that they are back together . If the union proves fruitful great and if it doesn't sorry for you, nothing more and nothing less. 07-coffee3

I probably have more interest in this situation than just about anyone here, because I support two schools, one in the Big East and one in the AAC.

Believe me, I *wish* the hack/fanboy interpretation of the Navy AD's off-the-cuff vague comments were more reliable than an article in Sports Business Journal, as USF would then benefit, but I can't.

Especially when the SBJ article is on the side of common sense. 07-coffee3

Do you mean the SBJ article that said "The fact that ESPN included the clause in its contract does not mean that the network definitely will open up the deal, which goes into effect with the 2020-21 season. After all, football is the main driver of these media deals, and UConn’s football performance over the last decade has been awful...Sources told me that ESPN will wait and see how -- and if -- the AAC fills the spot vacated by UConn."

Yes, that article. I don't know if ESPN will decide to "renegotiate" the AAC deal or not. I suspect not, as UConn leaving doesn't change anything substantive that was already agreed on by ESPN and the AAC. The only difference is that one of the 12 schools is now gone, so the deal will just be adjusted such that ESPN will now be paying 11 schools $7m a year rather than 12 schools $7m a year.

If the AAC does decide to add a 12th team, then that might complicate things, as ESPN might decide that the 12th team is worth more, or less, than UConn was. But I doubt any team willing to join the AAC would vary by much in value, so again, no need for a full-blown renegotiation.
(This post was last modified: 06-27-2019 01:54 PM by quo vadis.)
06-27-2019 01:50 PM
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johnbragg Online
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Post: #35
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 01:38 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 11:23 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 11:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 09:00 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 08:26 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  Also the Navy AD would never spin or shade things in a manner favorable to his institutions.

He's certainly going to put the most positive spin on things as possible, but I highly doubt anything he said in that interview turns out to be factually inaccurate. ESPN having the contractual ability to renegotiate is not the same thing as having the ability to outright cancel the deal or just arbitrarily say we are slicing the deal in half. It means there will be a back and forth between the parties where they'll discuss different scenarios and they'll both have to sign off and agree to any changes. I'm sure if ESPN tries to argue something obviously stupid like losing UCONN takes away 40 million a year from the deal that there's some provision for mediation.

I haven't seen anyone claim that ESPN will try to CUT the per-school payout agreed to. I certainly haven't.

What i have combatted is the claim made by several AAC hacks that ESPN will in effect INCREASE the AAC per school payout by paying the same agreed on total money, but now divided 11 ways not 12.

It's one possible outcome of a renegotiation after you get raided. ESPN hasn't done that in the past, but they also haven't been dealing with a school that refuses to backfill if ESPN tells them to do so to keep the contract.

It is a possible outcome, but IMO a very unlikely one, as it implies that ESPN regards the AAC as more valuable without UConn than with them, which beggars belief. Heck, UConn is the AAC's biggest brand name, so if anything, the per-school payout is more likely to go down than up.

I agree with you. I guess it wasn't clear what I was responding to.

*ESPN cutting the contract by more than 1/12* is an unlikely but possible outcome. ESPN doesn't like to do that, presumably because it makes their other partners nervous. But in this case, ESPN could point to unreasonable league behavior justifying a hard line.

It would only happen if the AAC says "Get raided, get a raise!" and refuses ESPN's advice to backfill. Not even "pick someone else", (Bristol wants State but the AAC prefers Tech)--just stiffarm ESPN and provide 5 fewer home football games and a dozen fewer MBB games to televise.

Quote:That said, I think far and away the most likely outcome will be that if the AAC remains at 11, the total amount will be prorated such that ESPN keeps what would have been UConn's share, and the rest of the AAC schools receive the same payout they were scheduled to before UConn left.

Agreed. Provided the other conferences agree, and I expect that they will, at least for a trial period.
(This post was last modified: 06-27-2019 01:56 PM by johnbragg.)
06-27-2019 01:55 PM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #36
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 01:44 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:07 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 12:44 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The Navy AD never actually said the contract will stay the exact same and just divide it 11 ways instead of 12. His quotes were

"The ratio of interest by ESPN on the AAC, it was overwhelming in football. … I don’t think losing UConn is going to affect us to any degree of any significance.”

Navy AD Gladchuk: "It means there’s one less distribution to make. It means we get a little more of the revenue sharing. Anyone that comes in has got to be a plus rather than a fiscal detriment.”

"I don’t think we bring in anybody that doesn’t add value. That’ll be my vote. I don’t think we fill to fill. I have no interest in that.

In the first quote he didn't say he doesn't think the TV deal will change at all, just that he doesn't think it will affect the league to any significant degree (likely meaning decreasing the payout per team). The second quote about the 1 less distribution to make I think he's actually referring to the league distributions as a whole and not just the TV deal (although to be fair it's not super clear). That's not wrong the G5 pool along with tournament credits and every other league distribution would go up with 1 less team to give it to. The third quote is just the likely truth, and probably the way ESPN feels as well. I don't think they particularly have the urge to have the AAC add a team just because unless they bring value.

Good analysis. 04-cheers

In a whole bunch of words, he's basically saying what I've been saying - that the Navy AD's comments are too vague for fanboys to have latched on to them as meaning that the total ESPN payout will remain the same, and everyone will now get a raise because it is being divided 11 ways not 12.

The fanboy interpretation may in fact prove to be correct and the 11 remainders may in fact get this "raise", but these vague comments by one AD is not solid evidence to support it, and it defies common sense.

If you want to get really technical I do expect everyone to get a slight "raise" from this move. Not from the TV deal staying the exact same and splitting it 11 ways, but from the TV deal staying on a pro-rated version pretty much the same per team and then splitting the rest of the distributions to 1 less team. Not gonna be some gigantic windfall or anything, but not going to be any real harm either.
06-27-2019 01:56 PM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #37
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 01:56 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:44 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:07 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 12:44 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The Navy AD never actually said the contract will stay the exact same and just divide it 11 ways instead of 12. His quotes were

"The ratio of interest by ESPN on the AAC, it was overwhelming in football. … I don’t think losing UConn is going to affect us to any degree of any significance.”

Navy AD Gladchuk: "It means there’s one less distribution to make. It means we get a little more of the revenue sharing. Anyone that comes in has got to be a plus rather than a fiscal detriment.”

"I don’t think we bring in anybody that doesn’t add value. That’ll be my vote. I don’t think we fill to fill. I have no interest in that.

In the first quote he didn't say he doesn't think the TV deal will change at all, just that he doesn't think it will affect the league to any significant degree (likely meaning decreasing the payout per team). The second quote about the 1 less distribution to make I think he's actually referring to the league distributions as a whole and not just the TV deal (although to be fair it's not super clear). That's not wrong the G5 pool along with tournament credits and every other league distribution would go up with 1 less team to give it to. The third quote is just the likely truth, and probably the way ESPN feels as well. I don't think they particularly have the urge to have the AAC add a team just because unless they bring value.

Good analysis. 04-cheers

In a whole bunch of words, he's basically saying what I've been saying - that the Navy AD's comments are too vague for fanboys to have latched on to them as meaning that the total ESPN payout will remain the same, and everyone will now get a raise because it is being divided 11 ways not 12.

The fanboy interpretation may in fact prove to be correct and the 11 remainders may in fact get this "raise", but these vague comments by one AD is not solid evidence to support it, and it defies common sense.

If you want to get really technical I do expect everyone to get a slight "raise" from this move. Not from the TV deal staying the exact same and splitting it 11 ways, but from the TV deal staying on a pro-rated version pretty much the same per team and then splitting the rest of the distributions to 1 less team. Not gonna be some gigantic windfall or anything, but not going to be any real harm either.

I agree with that, which is why I've been careful to say the ESPN money will remain the same per-school. But yes, unless the AAC goes to 12, it stands to reason that stuff like bowl money will now be split fewer ways, meaning more money per school, though as you say not that much.
06-27-2019 02:02 PM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #38
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
The other thing is who seriously believes that if ESPN tells the AAC to add (insert whatever school that would accept the offer that ESPN wants) to keep the deal the same that the AAC is gonna say no? My only contention is I don't think ESPN is going to want to pay the same rate for anyone that would be an obvious yes. I suspect ESPN would rather pay a prorated amount for less inventory than the same amount to add ODU/UAB/Buffallo/whoever else. Which doesn't in any way go against anything the Navy AD said, that he doesn't believe the league will bring in anybody that doesn't add value.
06-27-2019 02:07 PM
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Post: #39
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 01:56 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:44 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:07 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 12:44 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The Navy AD never actually said the contract will stay the exact same and just divide it 11 ways instead of 12. His quotes were

"The ratio of interest by ESPN on the AAC, it was overwhelming in football. … I don’t think losing UConn is going to affect us to any degree of any significance.”

Navy AD Gladchuk: "It means there’s one less distribution to make. It means we get a little more of the revenue sharing. Anyone that comes in has got to be a plus rather than a fiscal detriment.”

"I don’t think we bring in anybody that doesn’t add value. That’ll be my vote. I don’t think we fill to fill. I have no interest in that.

In the first quote he didn't say he doesn't think the TV deal will change at all, just that he doesn't think it will affect the league to any significant degree (likely meaning decreasing the payout per team). The second quote about the 1 less distribution to make I think he's actually referring to the league distributions as a whole and not just the TV deal (although to be fair it's not super clear). That's not wrong the G5 pool along with tournament credits and every other league distribution would go up with 1 less team to give it to. The third quote is just the likely truth, and probably the way ESPN feels as well. I don't think they particularly have the urge to have the AAC add a team just because unless they bring value.

Good analysis. 04-cheers

In a whole bunch of words, he's basically saying what I've been saying - that the Navy AD's comments are too vague for fanboys to have latched on to them as meaning that the total ESPN payout will remain the same, and everyone will now get a raise because it is being divided 11 ways not 12.

The fanboy interpretation may in fact prove to be correct and the 11 remainders may in fact get this "raise", but these vague comments by one AD is not solid evidence to support it, and it defies common sense.

If you want to get really technical I do expect everyone to get a slight "raise" from this move. Not from the TV deal staying the exact same and splitting it 11 ways, but from the TV deal staying on a pro-rated version pretty much the same per team and then splitting the rest of the distributions to 1 less team. Not gonna be some gigantic windfall or anything, but not going to be any real harm either.

Thats what Im thinking---but that amount is not going to be huge. The difference will only be about $300-400K per team.
06-27-2019 02:11 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #40
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 02:07 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The other thing is who seriously believes that if ESPN tells the AAC to add (insert whatever school that would accept the offer that ESPN wants) to keep the deal the same that the AAC is gonna say no? My only contention is I don't think ESPN is going to want to pay the same rate for anyone that would be an obvious yes. I suspect ESPN would rather pay a prorated amount for less inventory than the same amount to add ODU/UAB/Buffallo/whoever else. Which doesn't in any way go against anything the Navy AD said, that he doesn't believe the league will bring in anybody that doesn't add value.

Which is where the negotaition will begin. If ESPN wants another team, they will need to pay 7 million for the school in order for things to break even for the current membership. If they arent willing to pay---then cut our pay by 7 million and lets move on with 11. Balls in ESPN's court.
06-27-2019 02:13 PM
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