(02-06-2019 02:18 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Honestly---its not much different from the last 6 years. If at any time in the last 6 years ESPN wanted to engage with the AAC on a new deal--they could have. During that same time, the AAC could ONLY approach ESPN about purchasing its TV rights from 2020 onward. Yes, this is the specific period stated in the contract---but I wouldnt expect ESPN to place their best offer on the table until the very end of the month---and even then---ESPN may choose to see what their real competition is before doing so.

However, for ESPN, waiting is potentially much more risky this time around since the potential buyers all know the ratings track record of the inventory in question. If ESPN lets it go to the open market--my guess is will cost them more than they want to pay to get the entire package back. So...right now...they need to decide if they really want all of it. If they do---then they really need to put a hard to resist offer on the table before the end of the current exclusive negotiating period. If they do not want all of the AAC content--then they can afford to let it get to the open market without much risk that getting what they need at a reasonable cost will hurt financially. In other words, while they may pay more per game in a competetive bidding situation, its likely that buying only half the AAC inventory on the open market will be cheaper than the cost of buying it all during the exclusive marketing period. The downside for ESPN of taking that route is they will probably not get an unfettered choice of the top games.

Well, the bolded part is one reason why this 30-day period is different from the past 6 years - once it is over with, the AAC can field offers from other networks.

Another reason is Aresco's stance. Six years ago, Aresco basically rode out the 30 day exclusive ESPN period by demanding a huge contract that he knew ESPN wouldn't bite on. He was eager to go to market, thinking it would be a huge win for the Big East (we know how that turned out).

But so far, I have gotten the sense from his public comments that this time around, Aresco would like to re-sign with ESPN. He's not seeking to blow them off like he was in 2012, so again, that suggests that this 30-day window is the time when something might happen.

Bottom line: Given that Aresco wants an ESPN deal, and given that as you say, ESPN runs risks if it doesn't sign the AAC during this window, if a deal is NOT signed during this time, that bodes poorly for the AAC getting a high-end deal.