(11-28-2021 08:17 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Notre Dame is in unless Alabama, Michigan, and Cincinnati all win. Alabama is in with a loss so long as either Michigan or Cincinnati lose. If Michigan and Cincinnati BOTH lose, it looks like OK State, Iowa, and even Michigan might still get that 4th spot. There is also an 8% chance the above is deviated from due to a blowout here or there.

100% Georgia (100%)
100% 12-1 Alabama (25%)
100% 12-1 Michigan (77%)
100% 13-0 Cincinnati (79%)
84% 11-1 Notre Dame (100%)
39% 11-2 Alabama (74%)
8% 11-2 Michigan (22%)
4% 12-1 OK State (61%)
0% 11-2 Iowa (22%)

Overall Playoff %
1) 100% Georgia
2) 84% Notre Dame
3) 79.33% Cincinnati
4) 79.08% Michigan
5) 54.84% Alabama
6) 2.68% OK State
7) 0.07% Iowa

Top G5 Champ %
1) 79.33% Cincinnati
2) 15.18% San Diego St
3) 5.23% Houston
4) 0.26% UTSA

And here are the updated numbers going into the CCGs. OK State has a ~95% chance of getting in if one of Alabama, Cincy, or Michigan lose. Notre Dame is next in line, ~75% of the time. Alabama needs 2 of OK State, Cincy, and Michigan to lose, though there is a 25% chance they stay above Notre Dame if they play Georgia close.

100% (12-0)+L Georgia (26%)
100% (12-0)+W Georgia (73%)
100% (11-1)+W Alabama (26%)
100% (11-1)+W Michigan (79%)
100% (12-0)+W Cincinnati (81%)
80% (11-1)+W OK State (65%)
35% (11-1)+L Alabama (73%)
32% (11-1) Notre Dame (100%)
1% (11-1)+L Michigan (20%)
1% (10-2) Ohio St (100%)
0% (10-2) Ole Miss (100%)
Can only argue that Baylor not Ole Miss should be vying with Ohio State and Michigan for that chaos spot.