The LHN will give Texas an average of almost $18m per year from 2025-31, the final 6 years of the contract (it's on a 3% escalator, started just under $11m in 2012 and finishes above $19 in 2031). That means Texas would not feel any pinch should the Big 12 compensation be within $25m per year of the SEC and B1G. They could even handle a year or two $30m less.

But Oklahoma doesn't have that almost $20m per year cushion. A B12 contract $25-30m less per year means they would fall as much as $200m short of their SEC and B1G rivals over that 6 years stretch, and perhaps $250-300m over a decade. A $50m SoonerTV extension for that decade doesn't come close. The B12 Network deal the little 8 are getting that is maybe $1-2m per year after production costs wont do it either. The only way I think the B12 can help OU keep pace if for the little 8 to agree to no pay raise at all in the next contract and via unequal distribution the big raise all go to OU and Texas so they can keep pace with B1G and SEC revenue growth.

To me that is the real pressure point for realignment. The SEC and B1G it's about consolidation of what they have. For the ACC it's finding ways to boost the ACCN revenue higher than the typical 3% per year to handle the typical 20% bump you can expect others to get with the next round of contracts. So far the ACCN is growing much faster than 3%, although this year probably put a dent in that, and at some point soon it will plateau when it reaches most of it's potential base.

The B12 and P12 would be wise to align with each other to mutually support each other, since neither has enough audience alone. But ESPN seems to have deep hooks in the B12 and that will prevent that.

Where I can see a big shakeout is in 10 game conference schedules for some conferences and 9 for the rest. I think that Covid-19 situation has accelerated the timeline for that shift. Conference games are where more revenue can be had, where fans care more. I can honestly see Notre Dame, as their football contract runs out, fully joining the ACC and the ACC using that as away to get a contract boost. Either that or NBC or CBS will have to shell out a lot more money to keep the Irish Independent.

Besides Notre Dame for the ACC and Oklahoma for either the B1G or SEC, there is not school available this decade that improves any P5 conference media revenue (that is net revenue per member), and nobody else out there that anyone feels they have to have.

The 10 game schedule,greater revenue, perhaps expanded 8 team playoff that will add half a dozen schools to the three locks (so top recruits will distribute a bit better than know) will increase the gas from P5 to G5. Paying players, if they can figure out a way to do it without a title IX tax. I don't see how you can pay 60 football players and 10 basketball players without also paying 70 women --at many schools with 56% to 59% female student body, perhaps as many as 90 to 110 women-- the same level of money without running afoul of Title IX. (1) G5 schools will struggle even more to compete.

So I see an acceleration of current trends more than a great new shift.


Note:
(1) actually I do see a way: contracts that pay team players a share of gate receipts above production/operating costs. Women's sports mostly do not get any significant gate, so they would not get paid much. Men's Basketball and Football do have significant gate, so they might get decent checks. This might give UConn women an even bigger recruiting advantage.