(07-21-2020 10:56 AM)tkgrrett Wrote:  

(07-21-2020 10:48 AM)aardWolf Wrote:  

(07-21-2020 10:42 AM)tkgrrett Wrote:  

(07-21-2020 10:37 AM)aardWolf Wrote:  

(07-21-2020 10:21 AM)tkgrrett Wrote:  Go read the actual source for that data, you will notice that the notes say that there is a 1-8 week lag in reporting. Whatever screenshot that is is from 7/11. Cumulative deaths have already increased to over 2.1K in that week. Any data after mid-May in that chart is incomplete.

Here is source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

The chart came from the same source, but they haven't updated it since July 11. So, you're saying we'll see a May spike in the chart after they update it?

You dont need the chart... go look at the actual table data, its updated weekly. It already shows the reported deaths increasing since that snapshot.

The data is based on reported cause on death certificates from county coroners. Its pretty obvious there will massive be reporting lag (CDC says 1-8 weeks).

I'm honestly pursuing this... not just trying to argue. I'm looking at the very top chart on the link that was posted.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Column 2 (All Deaths involving COVID-19) shows a pretty clear peak on April 18th, then it consistently drops after that. I understand your point that it takes a while for the deaths to get reported, but there is NO increase after April 18th. Which date do you consider no longer valid?

Not arguing about a peak.. just using May 9th as point of reference im saying two things:

1) 11K deaths in a week is still a lot even if its on a downswing

2) Deaths are not an independent measure, they are an outcome of cases. If cases rise by a lot, there remains a chance deaths to start rising again. This may not be tghe case with younger, healthier people making up many new cases but we honestly dont know yet. If Texas and Florida continues to report 90-150 deaths per day then basic math tells you when that reporting lag hits the database it could impact numbers

Ok.. I get where you're coming from. Just thought there was some increase in there that I was missing. If it comes, it hasn't made it to the reporting yet.