(01-16-2019 10:01 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-16-2019 09:11 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  

(01-15-2019 01:11 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-14-2019 11:30 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  I think people seriously underestimate the possibility of just one (at least technically). I rooting for little change and 5 but if you start to get big moves again, the way to maximize at least short term value is to have a single negociater with the networks. This only works if the conferences are close to equal in value but if you start talking enough moves it might be worth it to the powers that be.

Note: again, I don't want this, but I find it more likely than 3 and maybe even 4.

It will never be just one. It's much more likely to become 2 working together closely. But I agree that leverage will be the motivator.

If one, it's for TV only. Basically I would see it as a massive pooling of rights to get max dollar. Within that one setup league you would end up with conferences and divisions that would probably use current conference names and be at least similar to what we see now (although if you ever get the 4×16 people talk about, I think this is the only way).

I don't think this is the most likely end point as several things would have to fall right to get us there but think it's a bigger possibility than most imagine. [b]If you ever get to the point there are only 3 major conferences[/b], I think it is the next step that would be jumped to if you ever get all 3 TV rights to be of similar value. Might be jumping forward more than date here admittedly, but can see same forces pushing is there as got us here.

All that said, I still think 5 is most likely in 2026 and am rooting for no mjaor changes.

Frankly, I confess to being a little surprised that nobody voted for three power conferences. I voted for five because I believe most schools are where they need or want to be already. That, and because I am rooting for a setup in which the game of musical chairs that is the four team CFP is far more interesting if there are more players (power conferences) than chairs.

I see no path to expansion for the PAC 12 that makes sense, or would be agreeable to all the people who would have to vote for it. The media partners are not going to abandon everyone west of the Rockies, so they will remain a power conference in perpetuity.

Of the other four, the SEC and B1G would surely survive, and they are culturally distinct enough from each other that I don't really see them as partners. But I do think there could be movement away from the Big XII and the ACC toward the two giants. If that were to happen, the remnants of those two conferences would still be pretty good - just not good enough to command top dollar for their product.

I could see a scenario in which the three power conference champions, each determined by a four team Conference Championship tournament, would advance to a four team CFP. The fourth team in that tournament would be the winner of a four team tournament involving the four highest ranked teams from the rest of the FBS.

In this scenario all 130 schools theoretically have a path to claim a national championship. This may be unlikely, but IMO no more so than some of the other proposals posted here.

SEC and ACC contracts go to the mid-30s. I don't expect much realignment before then. It will also take a while for the transition away from the current cable model.

If there is a power 3, it may mean 6 power conferences in three groups. West Group-Pac 12 and Big 12. South Group-SEC + ACC Atlantic +WVU + maybe a couple AAC schools. North Group-Big 10 + ACC Coastal + ND + maybe a couple AAC schools.