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Poll: How many power conferences will there be in 2026?
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Poll: How many power conferences will there be in 2026?
(01-15-2019 06:43 PM)ArQ Wrote:  
(01-15-2019 05:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Kansas and Oklahoma join the Big Ten.

Texas leverages the remaining 7 to let them take their FB Independent and remain an Olympic member of the Big 12 in exchange for 5 OOC FB games per year.

The Big 12 adds 3 from: Houston, Cincy, UCF, and USF.

I think Kansas and Oklahoma would rather go to SEC. And SEC has higher picking order than B1G.

B1G then adds Iowa State and Kansas State.

Texas goes independent like Notre Dame. Their Olympics sports goes to either B1G or ACC.

The remaining pieces go to PAC16. I think PAC will add Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor and Texas Tech. Houston has the chance to replace Baylor here.

West Virginia has no choice but going to AAC. If PAC16 picks Houston, Baylor will go to C-USA.

I'm going to strongly disagree with you here. The Big Ten has a lot of selling points including academics and a West Division where Oklahoma should be an annual contender.

The SEC would give them a much tougher division to win and if they should go there Oklahoma St, not Kansas, would be their dancing partner because unlike the Big Ten, the SEC would be accepting of the less academically prestigious institution and allow the Sooner's to possibly keep their instate rival.

K St doesn't have the academics to go to the Big Ten and while Iowa St does it is widely believed the Big Ten has no interest in them.

The PAC 12 doesn't just need to be in Texas they need the University of Texas. They don't have the cache to get them and the other schools just don't have enough appeal and the CA schools will be picky about academics.
01-15-2019 08:55 PM
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AntiG Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Poll: How many power conferences will there be in 2026?
(01-15-2019 07:44 PM)ICThawk Wrote:  
(01-15-2019 06:43 PM)ArQ Wrote:  
(01-15-2019 05:50 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Kansas and Oklahoma join the Big Ten.

Texas leverages the remaining 7 to let them take their FB Independent and remain an Olympic member of the Big 12 in exchange for 5 OOC FB games per year.

The Big 12 adds 3 from: Houston, Cincy, UCF, and USF.

I think Kansas and Oklahoma would rather go to SEC. And SEC has higher picking order than B1G.

B1G then adds Iowa State and Kansas State.

Texas goes independent like Notre Dame. Their Olympics sports goes to either B1G or ACC.

The remaining pieces go to PAC16. I think PAC will add Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor and Texas Tech. Houston has the chance to replace Baylor here.

West Virginia has no choice but going to AAC. If PAC16 picks Houston, Baylor will go to C-USA.

I don't see a rationale why the B1G would add ISU and/or KSU. Iowa State just "duplicates" Iowa (and it's in a "small" state population wise) and K-State's academics would be less than impressive (or acceptable) to the B1G, not to mention it is in a "small" state as well. I'm not even sure the B1G would take KU and it's AAU! I think it's far more likely the B1G would decide to "wait" for the 2035 era when ACC teams MIGHT be available, depending on the ACCN's success, or the lack thereof.

Exactly. B1G is not looking to expand unless it is for a franchise player type (Oklahoma, Texas, Notre Dame amongst non-locked down schools in the geographical vicinity).

As far as preference, OU leadership has been leaking their desire for the B1G for years, as has KU. Not sure if the B1G wants KU as #16 if they only plan to get to 16.
01-15-2019 10:20 PM
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Pablo Hoo84 Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Poll: How many power conferences will there be in 2026?
To maximize revenues, the P5 hires a football czar who convinces the conferences to restructure. All conferences have 16 teams, all teams must play at least 10 regular season games against fellow Power teams & at least 8 conference games must be played to be eligible for the conference championship. Only conference champions are eligible for the playoffs.

The current conference structures are used to maintain some semblance of regionalism and tradition. Unfortunately, the B12 must be dissolved...but all its members get a landing spot. The school with lowest economic value is relegated...this creates problems for the Cougars of WSU. No conference is really happy with their lot, but everyone makes more money.

New Power 4:
Northern Conference = current BIG plus ISU & KS. Additions are AAU brands with geographic continuity. The lack of football prowess of the additions is over-ridden by the guarantee that the conference champion will make the playoffs. Ohio State and Michigan understand that this gives them greater access to high profile games.

Western Conference = current PAC less WSU, plus TX, Bay, TT, OK & KSt. Folks in Austin get to keep friends and rivals. The left coast gets serious football with passionate fan bases. Oklahoma sees continued daylight toward CFP participation. California schools understand that they have hit the jackpot by getting the two biggest brands. Huskies are mad about WSU, but their influence in the new larger conference is diminished.

Eastern Conference = ACC plus Notre Dame and WVU. ACC academic schools don’t want WVU, but Louisville already broke the ice...need for greater revenue trumps ivory tower theories of scholar athletes. ND uses the conference champion criteria for CFP as its rationale for acquiescence...interestingly, ND and Michigan have comparable thinking.

Southern Conference = SEC plus TCU and OkSt. SEC gets to keep its prized conference championship game while it simultaneously becomes a CFP quarterfinal. The additions mean that both Dallas and Houston MSAs are now their territory. Obviously, the arrogant souls hate the notion that other leagues get automatic qualifiers...they convince the czar to stipulate that conference champions must have 3 or fewer losses to make the playoffs (opening the door for an at large bid...read ESPN pimping for the Tide/Dawgs/Tigers/Gators).
01-15-2019 10:51 PM
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ohio1317 Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Poll: How many power conferences will there be in 2026?
(01-15-2019 01:11 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-14-2019 11:30 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  I think people seriously underestimate the possibility of just one (at least technically). I rooting for little change and 5 but if you start to get big moves again, the way to maximize at least short term value is to have a single negociater with the networks. This only works if the conferences are close to equal in value but if you start talking enough moves it might be worth it to the powers that be.

Note: again, I don't want this, but I find it more likely than 3 and maybe even 4.

It will never be just one. It's much more likely to become 2 working together closely. But I agree that leverage will be the motivator.

If one, it's for TV only. Basically I would see it as a massive pooling of rights to get max dollar. Within that one setup league you would end up with conferences and divisions that would probably use current conference names and be at least similar to what we see now (although if you ever get the 4×16 people talk about, I think this is the only way).

I don't think this is the most likely end point as several things would have to fall right to get us there but think it's a bigger possibility than most imagine. If you ever get to the point there are only 3 major conferences, I think it is the next step that would be jumped to if you ever get all 3 TV rights to be of similar value. Might be jumping forward more than date here admittedly, but can see same forces pushing is there as got us here.

All that said, I still think 5 is most likely in 2026 and am rooting for no mjaor changes.
01-16-2019 09:11 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Poll: How many power conferences will there be in 2026?
(01-16-2019 09:11 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  
(01-15-2019 01:11 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-14-2019 11:30 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  I think people seriously underestimate the possibility of just one (at least technically). I rooting for little change and 5 but if you start to get big moves again, the way to maximize at least short term value is to have a single negociater with the networks. This only works if the conferences are close to equal in value but if you start talking enough moves it might be worth it to the powers that be.

Note: again, I don't want this, but I find it more likely than 3 and maybe even 4.

It will never be just one. It's much more likely to become 2 working together closely. But I agree that leverage will be the motivator.

If one, it's for TV only. Basically I would see it as a massive pooling of rights to get max dollar. Within that one setup league you would end up with conferences and divisions that would probably use current conference names and be at least similar to what we see now (although if you ever get the 4×16 people talk about, I think this is the only way).

I don't think this is the most likely end point as several things would have to fall right to get us there but think it's a bigger possibility than most imagine. [b]If you ever get to the point there are only 3 major conferences[/b], I think it is the next step that would be jumped to if you ever get all 3 TV rights to be of similar value. Might be jumping forward more than date here admittedly, but can see same forces pushing is there as got us here.

All that said, I still think 5 is most likely in 2026 and am rooting for no mjaor changes.

Frankly, I confess to being a little surprised that nobody voted for three power conferences. I voted for five because I believe most schools are where they need or want to be already. That, and because I am rooting for a setup in which the game of musical chairs that is the four team CFP is far more interesting if there are more players (power conferences) than chairs.

I see no path to expansion for the PAC 12 that makes sense, or would be agreeable to all the people who would have to vote for it. The media partners are not going to abandon everyone west of the Rockies, so they will remain a power conference in perpetuity.

Of the other four, the SEC and B1G would surely survive, and they are culturally distinct enough from each other that I don't really see them as partners. But I do think there could be movement away from the Big XII and the ACC toward the two giants. If that were to happen, the remnants of those two conferences would still be pretty good - just not good enough to command top dollar for their product.

I could see a scenario in which the three power conference champions, each determined by a four team Conference Championship tournament, would advance to a four team CFP. The fourth team in that tournament would be the winner of a four team tournament involving the four highest ranked teams from the rest of the FBS.

In this scenario all 130 schools theoretically have a path to claim a national championship. This may be unlikely, but IMO no more so than some of the other proposals posted here.
01-16-2019 10:01 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Poll: How many power conferences will there be in 2026?
If Oklahoma were to join the Big 10 West, they could possibly play Nebraska and Texas every year. I’m not sure they would be able to keep OK St., unless of course they were to be shunned by Texas. That last point may be very important in their decision making process. Hard to believe The Lone Star Showdown is no more.
01-16-2019 10:21 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Poll: How many power conferences will there be in 2026?
(01-16-2019 10:21 AM)esayem Wrote:  If Oklahoma were to join the Big 10 West, they could possibly play Nebraska and Texas every year. I’m not sure they would be able to keep OK St., unless of course they were to be shunned by Texas. That last point may be very important in their decision making process. Hard to believe The Lone Star Showdown is no more.

In my mind, the movement that results in an AQ3 (I hate the "power" designation) would go like this.

Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech and Louisville go to the SEC East. Missouri and Vanderbilt move to the West.

Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas all go to the B1G West. Both SEC and B1G have 18 members, and play an 8 game round robin within their division. Crossovers are treated like OOC games - some permanent rivals, some rotating.

Most true rivals are now in the same conference or division.
01-16-2019 10:48 AM
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esayem Offline
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RE: Poll: How many power conferences will there be in 2026?
(01-16-2019 10:48 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-16-2019 10:21 AM)esayem Wrote:  If Oklahoma were to join the Big 10 West, they could possibly play Nebraska and Texas every year. I’m not sure they would be able to keep OK St., unless of course they were to be shunned by Texas. That last point may be very important in their decision making process. Hard to believe The Lone Star Showdown is no more.

In my mind, the movement that results in an AQ3 (I hate the "power" designation) would go like this.

Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech and Louisville go to the SEC East. Missouri and Vanderbilt move to the West.

Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas all go to the B1G West. Both SEC and B1G have 18 members, and play an 8 game round robin within their division. Crossovers are treated like OOC games - some permanent rivals, some rotating.

Most true rivals are now in the same conference or division.

Well, you've complicated the SEC because Tennessee plays both Vanderbilt and Alabama yearly. If anything, the SEC teams WANT to see each other more. There was a lot of hype around the Tennessee-Auburn game, for instance.

I think five conferences is better than less, although the best set-up was in the 80's because the power was more spread out:

Power
ACC
SEC
Power Eastern/Southern Independents + Notre Dame
Big Ten
Big 8
SWC
Pac 10

Major
Major Independents
WAC

Mid-Major
Big West
MAC
Mid-Major Independents

Of course, trimming the fat off the SWC and joining ranks with the Big 8, and creating the Big East out of Independents without Penn State and FSU created six Power Conferences.

IMO, six or seven power conferences would be ideal because of the opportunity to create more frequent marquee OOC match-ups like Clemson-Georgia, UNC-Tennessee and UNC-SC (personal favs), Penn State-Alabama, GT-Auburn, etc.
01-16-2019 11:32 AM
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toddjnsn Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Poll: How many power conferences will there be in 2026?
Sorry AAC, you are and always will be -- G5. :)
01-16-2019 07:25 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Poll: How many power conferences will there be in 2026?
(01-16-2019 10:01 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-16-2019 09:11 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  
(01-15-2019 01:11 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-14-2019 11:30 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  I think people seriously underestimate the possibility of just one (at least technically). I rooting for little change and 5 but if you start to get big moves again, the way to maximize at least short term value is to have a single negociater with the networks. This only works if the conferences are close to equal in value but if you start talking enough moves it might be worth it to the powers that be.

Note: again, I don't want this, but I find it more likely than 3 and maybe even 4.

It will never be just one. It's much more likely to become 2 working together closely. But I agree that leverage will be the motivator.

If one, it's for TV only. Basically I would see it as a massive pooling of rights to get max dollar. Within that one setup league you would end up with conferences and divisions that would probably use current conference names and be at least similar to what we see now (although if you ever get the 4×16 people talk about, I think this is the only way).

I don't think this is the most likely end point as several things would have to fall right to get us there but think it's a bigger possibility than most imagine. [b]If you ever get to the point there are only 3 major conferences[/b], I think it is the next step that would be jumped to if you ever get all 3 TV rights to be of similar value. Might be jumping forward more than date here admittedly, but can see same forces pushing is there as got us here.

All that said, I still think 5 is most likely in 2026 and am rooting for no mjaor changes.

Frankly, I confess to being a little surprised that nobody voted for three power conferences. I voted for five because I believe most schools are where they need or want to be already. That, and because I am rooting for a setup in which the game of musical chairs that is the four team CFP is far more interesting if there are more players (power conferences) than chairs.

I see no path to expansion for the PAC 12 that makes sense, or would be agreeable to all the people who would have to vote for it. The media partners are not going to abandon everyone west of the Rockies, so they will remain a power conference in perpetuity.

Of the other four, the SEC and B1G would surely survive, and they are culturally distinct enough from each other that I don't really see them as partners. But I do think there could be movement away from the Big XII and the ACC toward the two giants. If that were to happen, the remnants of those two conferences would still be pretty good - just not good enough to command top dollar for their product.

I could see a scenario in which the three power conference champions, each determined by a four team Conference Championship tournament, would advance to a four team CFP. The fourth team in that tournament would be the winner of a four team tournament involving the four highest ranked teams from the rest of the FBS.

In this scenario all 130 schools theoretically have a path to claim a national championship. This may be unlikely, but IMO no more so than some of the other proposals posted here.

I’m not necessarily saying UT would go for it, but what kind of support among PAC12 membership would you expect for a UT+Rice combo?

I think UT is better off with the status quo. But if OU bolted and maybe one more, this seems like an option potentially interesting to the current PAC12 and one that might check a lot, or even all of the boxes.
01-16-2019 07:31 PM
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dunstvangeet Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Poll: How many power conferences will there be in 2026?
(01-16-2019 07:31 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  I’m not necessarily saying UT would go for it, but what kind of support among PAC12 membership would you expect for a UT+Rice combo?

I think UT is better off with the status quo. But if OU bolted and maybe one more, this seems like an option potentially interesting to the current PAC12 and one that might check a lot, or even all of the boxes.
Frankly, the PAC-12 wants a total of 4 teams, not two, which would make realigning to a nice east-west alignment (old PAC-8, others), with Texas being the eastern population center to offset the California Population there.

Texas, Rice, Oklahoma and Kansas would be absolutely awesome as a 4-some over to the PAC-12.

That would make 4 easy pods for rivalries: Northwest, California, Four Corners and Southwest.
01-16-2019 08:23 PM
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Jjoey52 Offline
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Poll: How many power conferences will there be in 2026?
Conference size will decrease not increase in the future, look for the ACC to split then, and another P conference to form. Large conferences are unwieldy, and the tv pots are split too many ways.


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01-16-2019 09:39 PM
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RE: Poll: How many power conferences will there be in 2026?
(01-16-2019 09:39 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  Conference size will decrease not increase in the future, look for the ACC to split then, and another P conference to form. Large conferences are unwieldy, and the tv pots are split too many ways.


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But the question was, "How many POWER conferences?" Not how many total conferences.

I still think it shrinks to maybe 2, with no P5 conference having the same membership as it does now. The also-rans in the current P5 will be relegated to G5 status.
01-17-2019 03:42 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Poll: How many power conferences will there be in 2026?
(01-16-2019 08:23 PM)dunstvangeet Wrote:  
(01-16-2019 07:31 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  I’m not necessarily saying UT would go for it, but what kind of support among PAC12 membership would you expect for a UT+Rice combo?

I think UT is better off with the status quo. But if OU bolted and maybe one more, this seems like an option potentially interesting to the current PAC12 and one that might check a lot, or even all of the boxes.
Frankly, the PAC-12 wants a total of 4 teams, not two, which would make realigning to a nice east-west alignment (old PAC-8, others), with Texas being the eastern population center to offset the California Population there.

Texas, Rice, Oklahoma and Kansas would be absolutely awesome as a 4-some over to the PAC-12.

That would make 4 easy pods for rivalries: Northwest, California, Four Corners and Southwest.

A major problem with this scenario is that the Four Corners pod would not want to add the Southwest pod. Without the Four Corners schools, you don't have the votes to add the others.

You could possibly trick them into agreeing to expansion if you established a zipper alignment that allowed each of the Four Corners schools to have a division mate in both the LA and Bay area of California. But once they allow the new schools in, they no longer have the votes to prevent the PAC from reneging on the zipper arrangement and aligning east-west in the future.
01-17-2019 08:43 AM
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RE: Poll: How many power conferences will there be in 2026?
(01-17-2019 08:43 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-16-2019 08:23 PM)dunstvangeet Wrote:  
(01-16-2019 07:31 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  I’m not necessarily saying UT would go for it, but what kind of support among PAC12 membership would you expect for a UT+Rice combo?

I think UT is better off with the status quo. But if OU bolted and maybe one more, this seems like an option potentially interesting to the current PAC12 and one that might check a lot, or even all of the boxes.
Frankly, the PAC-12 wants a total of 4 teams, not two, which would make realigning to a nice east-west alignment (old PAC-8, others), with Texas being the eastern population center to offset the California Population there.

Texas, Rice, Oklahoma and Kansas would be absolutely awesome as a 4-some over to the PAC-12.

That would make 4 easy pods for rivalries: Northwest, California, Four Corners and Southwest.

A major problem with this scenario is that the Four Corners pod would not want to add the Southwest pod. Without the Four Corners schools, you don't have the votes to add the others.

You could possibly trick them into agreeing to expansion if you established a zipper alignment that allowed each of the Four Corners schools to have a division mate in both the LA and Bay area of California. But once they allow the new schools in, they no longer have the votes to prevent the PAC from reneging on the zipper arrangement and aligning east-west in the future.

Going with four 4-team pods and keeping the 9-game conference schedule can permit all non-California schools to play an average of 2 California schools per year. You can even skew the schedule so that each school in the Northwest and Mountain pods plays each California school a bit more frequently (5 years out of 8 instead of 4 out of 8) at the expense of the Northwest and Mountain schools playing cross-pod less frequently (2 years out of 8 instead of 4 out of 8).
(This post was last modified: 01-17-2019 09:13 AM by Nerdlinger.)
01-17-2019 09:04 AM
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Post: #56
RE: Poll: How many power conferences will there be in 2026?
(01-16-2019 08:23 PM)dunstvangeet Wrote:  
(01-16-2019 07:31 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  I’m not necessarily saying UT would go for it, but what kind of support among PAC12 membership would you expect for a UT+Rice combo?

I think UT is better off with the status quo. But if OU bolted and maybe one more, this seems like an option potentially interesting to the current PAC12 and one that might check a lot, or even all of the boxes.
Frankly, the PAC-12 wants a total of 4 teams, not two, which would make realigning to a nice east-west alignment (old PAC-8, others), with Texas being the eastern population center to offset the California Population there.

Texas, Rice, Oklahoma and Kansas would be absolutely awesome as a 4-some over to the PAC-12.

I agree that PAC12 will like to add four schools. But Kansas is too eastern and Rice is too small. Also Texas likes Texas Tech as its partner. I would say the four schools should be Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Nevada.
01-17-2019 09:33 AM
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Post: #57
RE: Poll: How many power conferences will there be in 2026?
(01-16-2019 10:01 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-16-2019 09:11 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  
(01-15-2019 01:11 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-14-2019 11:30 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  I think people seriously underestimate the possibility of just one (at least technically). I rooting for little change and 5 but if you start to get big moves again, the way to maximize at least short term value is to have a single negociater with the networks. This only works if the conferences are close to equal in value but if you start talking enough moves it might be worth it to the powers that be.

Note: again, I don't want this, but I find it more likely than 3 and maybe even 4.

It will never be just one. It's much more likely to become 2 working together closely. But I agree that leverage will be the motivator.

If one, it's for TV only. Basically I would see it as a massive pooling of rights to get max dollar. Within that one setup league you would end up with conferences and divisions that would probably use current conference names and be at least similar to what we see now (although if you ever get the 4×16 people talk about, I think this is the only way).

I don't think this is the most likely end point as several things would have to fall right to get us there but think it's a bigger possibility than most imagine. [b]If you ever get to the point there are only 3 major conferences[/b], I think it is the next step that would be jumped to if you ever get all 3 TV rights to be of similar value. Might be jumping forward more than date here admittedly, but can see same forces pushing is there as got us here.

All that said, I still think 5 is most likely in 2026 and am rooting for no mjaor changes.

Frankly, I confess to being a little surprised that nobody voted for three power conferences. I voted for five because I believe most schools are where they need or want to be already. That, and because I am rooting for a setup in which the game of musical chairs that is the four team CFP is far more interesting if there are more players (power conferences) than chairs.

I see no path to expansion for the PAC 12 that makes sense, or would be agreeable to all the people who would have to vote for it. The media partners are not going to abandon everyone west of the Rockies, so they will remain a power conference in perpetuity.

Of the other four, the SEC and B1G would surely survive, and they are culturally distinct enough from each other that I don't really see them as partners. But I do think there could be movement away from the Big XII and the ACC toward the two giants. If that were to happen, the remnants of those two conferences would still be pretty good - just not good enough to command top dollar for their product.

I could see a scenario in which the three power conference champions, each determined by a four team Conference Championship tournament, would advance to a four team CFP. The fourth team in that tournament would be the winner of a four team tournament involving the four highest ranked teams from the rest of the FBS.

In this scenario all 130 schools theoretically have a path to claim a national championship. This may be unlikely, but IMO no more so than some of the other proposals posted here.

SEC and ACC contracts go to the mid-30s. I don't expect much realignment before then. It will also take a while for the transition away from the current cable model.

If there is a power 3, it may mean 6 power conferences in three groups. West Group-Pac 12 and Big 12. South Group-SEC + ACC Atlantic +WVU + maybe a couple AAC schools. North Group-Big 10 + ACC Coastal + ND + maybe a couple AAC schools.
01-17-2019 11:20 AM
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