(09-20-2016 07:08 PM)bullitt_60 Wrote:  

(09-20-2016 06:52 PM)panama Wrote:  

(09-20-2016 02:12 PM)bullitt_60 Wrote:  

(09-20-2016 01:02 PM)JCGSU Wrote:  

(09-20-2016 09:26 AM)bullitt_60 Wrote:  We're also on the downward slope of a baby boom too. I've seen many articles over the past couple years talking about lower enrollment numbers... well, yeah, there's less people!

There is not less people lol Also the state of Georgia and the south in general is only growing in population. For GA anyway it is not a bunch of baby boomers moving here to retire either.

There are less people in the college age group now than there were 5 years ago, hence the reduction in college applications. The total population is exponential growth while birth rates are cyclical. Here is a graph that helps explain:



See the peak around 1990? That's what I'm talking about. We've seen a decline of around 3% year-over-year of 18 year olds over the past five years. Oddly enough, there has been a decline of college applicants of about 3% year-over-year over the past 5 years. Note that these are big, round numbers that account for the entire US, not regions, etc. There is another peak around 2008, which is part of what Eagle22 is referencing with the 2025 goal.

In this case I used the term "baby boom" to refer to a peak in birth rates not the generation "Baby Boomers".

There are not less college aged people IN GA.

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I was speaking nationally, but yes, Georgia's population growth rate is about .5% higher than the national average and I have no idea about that age group specifically. That's more math that I've signed up for but even if there is growth there, it has slowed.

I would say there is some validity in counting the Baby Boomers as a factor. The Greatest Generation (my parents) had less kids than their parents but there were more of them to begin with (My dad had 9 siblings, mom 3, my FIL had 8 and my MIL had 6). Whereas most of those people had 2/3 (larger families were not the norm any longer) because they wanted to provide better for the children they had. Boomers also had 2/3 (gen X) that are having 1/2. (millenials).

Look at it this way:
When I was 17 (1973) the population of kids 0-17 was 68.8 million but the US population was 211.9 million (32%)
In 2016 the population of kids 0-17 is 73.7 million but the US population is +/- 323 million (23%)
So, yes, even though the population is growing, the numbers of children, by percentage, is going down and, therefore, the percentage of available college aged students is on a decline.

This page shows the statistical decline until 2050.
This is not a total numbers decline but it shows that the number of children being born is statistically/by percentage lower than previous generations.
http://www.childstats.gov/AMERICASCHILDR...s/pop1.asp

(I hope some of you can follow my brain here)