(12-27-2019 06:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-27-2019 05:54 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(12-27-2019 05:37 PM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  College football: FBS conferences with fewer than 12 members now able to hold championship game

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/artic...-able-hold

The rule chance was passed for the sole purpose of allowing the Big XII to have conference champion ship game without having to expand beyond the 10 members they had in 2012.

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For the AAC, however, these newer rules don't permit the AAC to have a CCG unless there are two unbalanced divisions (6 and 5 teams), or unless that AAC were to play a full round robin conference schedule.

That's why it was necessary to obtain a two year waiver.

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The conference must choose one of these options:

1) 6 and 5 team divisions

2) play a full round robin schedule

3) add a 12th team soon enough - - to come on board BEFORE the expiration of 2 year waiver period (presumably the 2021 FB season).

4) Pin their hopes for a CCG game on an extension of the 2 year waiver or an additional rule change.

5) Don't play a CCG game for an indefinite period.

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Options 4 and 5 appear quite unlikely.

Options 1 and 2 are disagreeable to the AAC schools & Commissioner.

That leaves option 3 as the best way to move forward.

Option 3 would have the added benefit of expanding the conference's viewership and recruiting footprints into a new metropolitan (or national with AF) region.

Option 3 would also be an insurance policy to keep the conference at a minimum of 10 teams even if 2 AAC teams are raided by 2026.

Further, option 3 would strengthen the recruiting and viewership profile of the AAC in BB and FB, which will be weakened as a consequence of having the second lowest number of schools among the P6 conferences.

Three is the preferred option---BUT ONLY if there is a school that can be added that enhances the AAC brand...and we all know who those 3 or 4 schools are.

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Agreed.

However, the conference will be faced with a hard deadline, assuming no waiver extension or rule change beyond 2021. Specifically, (unless the AAC were to resume East and West Divisional play with 6 and 5 team divisions in 2022) a new FB member would need to be added for the 2022 season for an official 2022 CCG game to be played.

In order to accomplish that, an initial short list - - of schools that meet AAC criteria and express interest in FB membership - - would probably need to be prepared within the next 12-16 months (by Jan 1 to May 1, 2021), and the addition of a 12th FB school would need to be agreed upon and formalized early enough to reschedule the games for the 2022 FB season.

--Realistically, a 12th member would probably need to be selected by ~ December 31, 2021, if not earlier, in order to make the necessary arrangements for the 2022 conference schedule.

Bearing these time constraints in mind, Commissioner Aresco would have to begin initiating contacts with each of the potential and conceivable conference FB schools within the next 6-10 months, so that he can begin to identify the set of schools that could be included on an initial short list.

Aresco's widest possible "fishing net" would probably include no more than 7 or 8 conceivable additions (top candidates (any of AFA, SDSU, CSU, Boise, BYU that might express interest) plus another 2-3 wild cards that could possibly meet the AAC criteria in a year or two (another MWC, or possibly a Buffalo, Marshall, Independent, etc.).

To assemble a final short list, more extensive discussions and examinations would probably need to take place, including consultations with ESPN in a winnowing process between January and August, 2021.

Assuming that the final decision about a 12th FB member would need to be made between June and December, 2021 - - in time to finalize the details and get to work on rescheduling the 2022 season - - the final short list of 2-3 schools should be prepared by September 1, 2021, if not sooner.


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If this kind of estimated timetable is even broadly accurate, Commissioner Aresco's stated position of not initiating contacts with potential AAC members would have to be modified quite soon, unless the conference would prefer to resume East/West divisional play with 6 and 5 members beyond the 2021 season. The other options are either unacceptable or too uncertain to rely on.

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In this context, it would be surprising if the AAC schools haven't already been having some fairly detailed conversations about potential candidates that might belong on a short list. The process may be more advanced than some would assume.

In addition, it can be conjectured (or hoped) that Aresco has already had some initial conversations with conceivable candidates, among the non-P5 schools that he invited to contact him if they had any interest in exploring AAC membership.

The bottom line is that Aresco and the AAC can't remain aloof and disinterested in searching for a 12th FB member for too much longer, unless they are willing to live with the adverse consequences of continuing with only 11 FB schools in 2020, 2021, and beyond.