Tier 3 and 4 will initially be made up of the remainder of the FCS schools. Rather than dividing the schools into two tiers to start with, this division will occur over several seasons as lower-performing schools will be relegated to the fourth tier.

The groups are based on existing conferences placed in groups of roughly equal size. With 118 schools, 8 groups will average 14.75 teams. Our groups range in size from 12 to 19.

Northwestern Group


A total of 12 teams: Big Sky(8), Summit(3), Pioneer(1). The Big Sky had 4 schools (Eastern Washington, Montana, Montana State, and Weber State) placed in the second tier, as did the MVFC (Illinois State, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, and Northern Iowa). To replace these, the remaining Summit League members along with San Diego were placed in the group. In general the Pioneer League schools were separated geographically.

Midwest Group


A total of 17 schools (4 MVC/MVFC members; 1 Horizon/MVFC member, 6 OVC members, and 6 midwestern Pioneer League teams).

Southwest Group


A total of 14 schools, 7 from the WAC and 7 from the Southland. This could evolve from the current horizontal arrangement to a vertical arrangement, with the better teams in Tier 2, and the weaker teams in Tier 3.

South Central Group


The 12-team SWAC forms this group.

Northeast I Group


17 teams, 8 from the NEC, 6 from the MEAC, 2 northeastern Big South (Robert Morris and Bryant), and 1 Pioneer (Marist).

Northeast II Group


15 schools, 8 from the Ivies, and 7 from the Patriot. I'm assuming that the Ivies would participate in the pyramid. If not they would just be moved into a non-participating section. The SWAC might participate. They would be able to play 12 regular season games and also be bowl-eligible.

Southeast Group


10 schools: SoCon 8, ASUN 5, Big South 3 (southeastern Gardner-Webb, Campbell, Charleston Southern), Pioneer 3 (southeastern Davidson, Stetson, Presbyterian).

Atlantic Group


12 schools all in the CAA.

This will be a simulation of the Pacific Group

Pacific Group


The number is the Sagarin rating for each school. The difference between two ratings is the mean expected point spread at a neutral site. The home team is given a +3 point bonus.

In this simulation, I assumed that there would be a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 11 points. A team that is an 11 point favorite would be expected to cover 50% of the time, but win 84% of the time (that is, about 1/3 of the time, they would win by less than 11 points, but still win).

I used a 9-team schedule from the UIL, assigning the schools to the team numbers with the following constraint:

Rival schools should be scheduled against each the final week of the season. In this case the rivals are Oregon-Oregon State, Cal-Stanford, USC-UCLA, and Arizona-Arizona State. Washington is by itself (Washington State was assigned to another group).

One feature of this 9-team schedule is that each school plays home and away on alternating weeks. Because of the odd-number of teams all schools play four home and four away.

There can still be bias with this schedule. For example, Oregon hosts both UCLA and Arizona State. In close games, the home field advantage has the most effect. An away game at Arizona would be preferred. For example, Oregon at Arizona would still be a 17-point favorite.

In real life, the schedule would be assigned based on preserving alternating home and away games as much as possible. For example, USC will play at UCLA in 2024. Assuming this new competition begins in 2025 at the time of the new alignments, then it would be preferred that UCLA play at USC (the game has alternated since UCLA moved to the Rose Bowl in 1982).

There are 4! 2^4 = 384 possible schedules. It would be a simple exercise in brute force computer power to find the best alternating schedule.

Week 1


Arizona gets the upset in Seattle, while UCLA goes in to Eugene and knocks off co-favorite Oregon.


Week 2


Arizona State beats UCLA at the Rose Bowl to establish the Sun Devils as the early season favorites. Washington loses in Corvallis, placing them firmly in the relegation zone.


Week 3


Arizona State out in the lead for the playoff spot as Oregon and UCLA chase. Cal and Washington both drop a 3rd game.


Week 4


Washington wins battle of winless teams at Berkeley. Arizona State, Oregon, and UCLA continue winning ways.


Week 5


USC goes to Tempe as 10-point underdogs and knocks Arizona State from the ranks of the unbeaten. Cal gets first win against Arizona.


Week 6


Arizona State takes care of business against Oregon. Four teams with only two wins. Who can win another to avoid relegation zone?


Week 7


Oregon loses at Washington, effectively knocking them out of the title chase. If Arizona State and UCLA win out, the Sun Devils hold the tie-breaker based on their win over the Bruins in Week 2.


Week 8


Oregon State defeats USC, clinching playoff berths for Arizona State and UCLA. Arizona State defeated UCLA and will get top playoff berth if they remain tied. Arizona has clinched relegation zone. Cal faces must win against Stanford to avoid relegation.


Week 9


California wins final game to escape relegation. Arizona State and UCLA qualify for playoffs. Oregon State and Arizona to pro/rel playoffs.


Standings are with tie-breakers applied. Previous weeks, ties were alphabetized.

1,2. Arizona State 1st by virtue of win over UCLA, 2nd.
3. Oregon 3rd best record.
4. USC 4th best record.
5,6. Washington and Cal 2-1 vs. 4-way tie. Washington 5th beat Cal 6th.
7,8. Stanford and OSU 1-2 in 4-way tie. Stanford 7th beat Oregon State 7th.

Western Group


Utah and Iowa State are the pre-season favorites, with Kansas State, Boise State, and BYU a chance to contend. Kansas is an overwhelming favorite to relegate, with Colorado likely to join them.

Week 9


When teams have monotonic strength A > B > C > ..., and there are no upsets, then the standings will follow the same monotonic order, 8 > 7 > 6 > ...

This can still occur when there are one or more small upsets. If C upsets B, they will simply swap places in the standing. Since C beat B we can't even be sure that C isn't better than B (a conclusion that B is the stronger team would have to look at how convincing other scores were - did B play A closer, or defeat D more convincingly.

Only when there is more disruption, in this case WSU beat K-State, K-State beat Boise State, and Boise State beat WSU, forming a cycle do we get standings ties. Though WSU was perceived to be weaker than BYU, its win in the battle of the Cougars placed it clearly higher in the standings.

For playoff purposes we don't have to resolve the third-place tie. Because there was a cycle, Boise State, Kansas State, and Washington State were 1-1 in head-to-head competition, we have to compare their performance against the other teams. Obviously, they are tied at 4-2 against common opponents.

All three lost to #1 Utah and #2 Iowa State, while all three defeated #6 BYU, #7 San Diego State, #8 Colorado, and #9 Kansas.

The tie had to broken by point difference in head-to-head games.

WSU defeated K-State by +9.
K-State defeated Boise State by +10,
and Boise State defeated WSU by +12.

Boise State +12-10 = +2 is 3rd.
K-State +10-9 = +1 is 4th.
WSU +9 - 12 = -3 is 5th.

Depending on how the rules were written, WSU could have been 4th. Once Boise State was determined to be 3rd, the ranking of K-State and WSU could have reverted head-to-head. But in this case, the rule was explicit that once you go to point difference, all tied teams are ranked.

An interesting feature of this result was that Boise State and Washington State played in Week 9. Boise State would know that they needed to win by at least +12 to take third place. This could have affected their strategy and tactics beyond those needed to win the game (e.g. why did they go for 2 after the TD).

Midwest Group


Wisconsin is favored with Minnesota, Purdue, and Iowa expected to contend for second. Indiana and Northwest may face relegation.


Wisconsin drops first two to Illinois and Louisville, then runs off six straight to go from last to first including back-to-back wins over Iowa and Purdue. Iowa defeated Purdue to take the second playoff spot.

Louisville defeated Nebraska to finish 7th and avoid the relegation zone.

Northeast Group


Ohio State and Michigan top this group. Can Notre Dame hang with the big dogs. Rutgers and Navy fight to avoid relegation. Rivals pairings are: Michigan-Ohio State; Michigan State-Notre Dame; Pitt-Penn State; and Rutgers-Maryland, with Navy odd man out.


This group almost finished monotonically, with only a Penn State win over Notre Dame spoiling the sequence.

The key game turned to be in Week 2, when Notre Dame went into Columbus a 9-point underdog, and came out a 10-point victor. That same week Michigan went into Penn State a 5-point favorite, and came out happy with a 7-point win.

In Week 4, Penn State, gave Michigan and Ohio State hope by knocking off Notre Dame at home, upsetting the Irish by 4, when they were 3-point underdogs.

In Week 5, Notre Dame took care of business against Michigan, as one-point favorites in South Bend, winning by 6.

Through Week 7, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Penn State were tied at 5-1, with two games remaining for each.

Week 8 saw Ohio State go into State College nine point favorites and win by 30, leaving Michigan, Notre Dame, and Ohio State tied at 6-1.

Week 9 had Ohio State favored by seven hosting Michigan and Notre Dame favored by four at Michigan Stadium. The winner of Ohio State-Michigan would not only secure bragging rights, but a playoff berth. The Buckeyes would also get a top seed if Michigan State could defeat Notre Dame. At the other end of the table, Maryland would go in to Rutgers, with 7th place and avoiding relegation on the line. The Terrapins were favored by three.

Ohio State won by 10 gaining the second playoff berth, as Notre Dame won by 17 to secure the group championship. Rutgers upended Maryland to avoid relegation territory. Maryland took home the State of Delaware trophy by losing the game.

Southwest Group


OU, OSU, and Baylor are pre-season favorites, as TCU seeks to avoid relegation. Rivals week pairings are: OU-OSU, UT-TAMU, Baylor-TCU, and UH-Texas Tech, with LSU getting the bye.

The season gets off with bang as Baylor and OU face off in Norman. Baylor the 5-point underdog comes out with a 3-point win. Meanwhile OSU travels to Lubbock where they are 10-point favorites, but are beaten by 16. So after Week one two of the three pre-season favorites are 0-1.

In Week 5, unbeaten Baylor travels to Stillwater as 5 point underdogs. OSU clings to a one-point win.

After Week 6, Baylor, OU, OSU, and A&M are tied at 4-1. All have had their bye week, so all three face 3 more games.

In Week 7, Oklahoma travels to LSU, who are 8-point underdogs. The Tigers pull off the upset of the season with an overtime win. Meanwhile A&M travels to Stillwater as 8-point underdogs. The Cowboys shoot down A&M's title hopes with a 6-point win. Baylor and OSU are atop the league standings at 5-1, with OSU holding the tie-breaker.

Bedlam in Week 9 as OU heads up to Stillwater. Home-field give OSU the three-point edge, and OSU comes out with the 4-point win.


OSU and Baylor tie for first with the Cowboys winning the tie-breaker based on their Week 5 win over the Bears. Oklahoma finishes third, two games back after losing to both the top 2 and LSU. LSU's overtime win over OU is their sole win of the season. Texas joins LSU in the relegation zone. The Longhorns get some consolation by defeating A&M in the season finale at Darrel K. Royal-Memorial Stadium.

Central Group


Cincinnati and Ole Miss are preseason favorites, while Missouri and Memphis are likely candidates for relegation.

The wheels begin to fall off for the Bearcats in week two, as they went into Columbia 14 point favorites, and left down by four.

In Week 4, Mississippi goes into Cincinnati 5 point underdogs in the game penciled in as being for the group title. Mississippi gets an east 15-point win. Meanwhile Missouri notches their second upset as Tennessee visits Columbia as 5-point favorites, but the Tigers come up with a 4 point win over the Vols.

Week 6 sees another upset in Columbia as Kentucky travels to face Missouri who are 8-point underdogs, but sees the Tigers come up on top with a two-point win.

Week 7, Missouri is a 9 point underdog at Mississippi State but comes away an overtime winner in Starkville. Cincinnati crosses the Ohio River to face Kentucky in Lexington as two point favorites. The Tigers win by 9, giving the Bearcats their third loss.

In Week 8, Missouri gains their fifth upset win as they host West Virginia as two point underdogs but come out 8 point winners.

Two teams slated for opposite ends of the standings end up tied 5-3, with Missouri gaining third place by virtue of their week two win over Cincinnati.

Southeast Group


Georgia and Alabama are big favorites in this group, with Georgia Tech expected to finish last. The other six will be contending for third through eighth.

The title was decided in Week 1 when Alabama traveled to Athens as 7 point underdogs. Georgia did not cover, but held on for a four point win. The two teams cruised through the remainder of the schedule.

Georgia Tech's sole win was in Week 7 when Florida visited Georgia Tech. The Gators were seven point favorites but lost by 9.

The four-way tie for fifth at 3-5 was decided by tie-breakers. FSU and South Carolina were 2-1 in games among the four, with FSU beating South Carolina. UCF and Auburn were 1-2, and UCF defeated Auburn, pushing the Tigers into the 8th place relegation zone.

Atlantic Group


Clemson is the favorite to win the group, while Duke is waiting for basketball season to start.

The standings are almost monotonic, and would be monotonic except for Boston College's win over Virginia. This pattern can happen even when there are "upsets", where a team predicted to win loses. Let's say that A is favored to beat B, and A and B are favored to beat all other teams in the league. Then if B beats A, then they will be swapped in the standings.

Since team B was closer in perceived strength to team A than any other, they had a greater probability of pulling an upset: a one-point underdog has an almost 50% probability of winning, a 35-point underdog almost no chance.

In this case we can say Wake Forest performed better than Clemson, even though Clemson was the "better" team. This might not be too different than what happened in 2021, where Clemson lost an OT game to NC State, and also lost to Pitt. Clemson easily defeated Wake. Wake also lost to North Carolina - but that was not treated as a conference game.

In Week 4, Clemson went to Wake Forest as three point underdogs. Wake Forest came out 7 point winners in a game that would eventually prove decisive for the title.

North Carolina had a disastrous season losing to Virginia Tech, Boston College, and Syracuse at home when they were a TD favorite in each game. In the game against Boston College the Tar Heels not only failed to cover they lost by 17.

The final week rivals games had title and relegation ramifications.

NC State was a one-point underdog at Wake Forest. If the Wolfpack won there would be a 3-way time among Wake Forest, Clemson, and NC State. Since each would have beaten one of the other two and lost to the other, the tie-breaker would have been record against the other teams in order of finish. But all three of the leaders had defeated every other team in the group.

The next tie-breaker would be point differential in games between the three teams. If NC State won by five or less, then Wake Forest would win the title, and Clemson would be in the playoffs.

If NC State won by six, they would displace Clemson in the playoff. If NC State won by seven or eight, they would win the title, and Wake Forest would be in the playoffs.

If NC State won by nine or more then Clemson would take Wake Forest's place in the playoffs.

Wake Forest simplified the calculation by defeating the Wolfpack by 13.

North Carolina played at Duke, with both teams winless in group play, and Mack Brown's job rumored to be on the chopping block. The Tar Heels were 15 point favorites and came away 36-point winners taking out their season frustrations on the beleaguered Blue Devils.