(06-12-2022 12:00 PM)pvk75 Wrote: Maybe beating this into the ground, but IMO we're seeing the veil on something else lifted a bit. And it may have a bigger effect on "our" NIU MBB specifically than the transfer portal does generally. So, well ...
Anyway, I get all that, Big Red, and as usual it's a good analysis. But I was looking at something else. Let's call it office "culture."
As HuskieDave pointed out (and I did not consider) two assistants and the DofO leave in one year. IMO, that has to do with $ and internal policy, pressure and relationships. It smells a lot like "hell, this isn't what I signed up for" with a little bit of "you gotta be kidding me" mixed in. I also expect some "ok, let's monetize this thing!" in anything STF does. The MBB situation has that written all over it. Not a good situation for a new HC and staff.
Maybe that's an indication of where the frustration comes from ... that, and the way o-o-c scheduling is shaping up ... "here we go again." I go right back to that Baker question about home games and Burno's answer.
Contrast that with Carlsen's answer. She was eager to say that NIU opens at Notre Dame and then hosts DePaul right away. In the vast majority of cases, there is no wbb payday. You negotiate your way into a game at ND -- hey, it's ND, sportsfans -- and you're happy to pay your own way. And DePaul is the back half of a home-and-home.
Can/can't wait to see what the MBB o-o-c sked looks like.
Note: Not to make this too much longer, but I invite you to visit the Toledo forum (yes, I know, it's Toledo). They just got a new AD, who actually responded to a forum request for a sit-down with the die-hards. See the thread "New AD to meet with ..." and find post #16 by UofToledoFans, with numbered details of what they discussed. Now compare that to what you/we know about STF. 'Nuff said.
(Tnx to HUSKIEFOOTBALLFAN for the video post.)
Regarding the Toledo AD. First of all, that is a great thing for them. I would also temper expectations as this is a new AD and let's see how that interaction is 5, 10, 15 years down the road. First year people do a lot of things and then some of those things often erode slowly over time. Slowly enough that you don't realize at first its eroding and then all of a sudden, you have a bunch of unhappy, small donors or whatever.
Or maybe it's all kumbaya and whatever. Time will tell but they seem and should be excited about the recognition.
As for our mbb team. I'm almost through a really interesting article on The Athletic about the portal and it's effect on mens bb. They're taking a pretty in-depth look at it from the past two years (basically the years that include the free transfer year and the NIL deals) and how guys have performed going high-major to high-major, mid/low-major up a level and all kinds of things. Some really good quotes from Matt Painter and some other un-named sources (assistant coaches and whatnot) and, unsurprisingly, the vast majority of guys moving up a level see their minutes and production drop.
They are pretty honest that they lie to guys because they want a guy who they think will be a good #8 depth piece but they tell him he's going to start and whatnot because, otherwise, you wouldn't be able to convince him to come over.
The do think there might be a correction of sorts coming as the guys with the extra year of covid eligibity will be through the system in two years so you're going to see about 300 or so fewer grad transfers. Plus, you'll have that many more horror stories that may dissuade some guys, but ultimately, you still have guys who refuse to believe the reality and coaches/agents/boosters/etc who will always be on the other end trying to convince them it's for their best when it may not be.
They also said the guys who get hurt the most is high school seniors. Basically, if you're a high major and you want to fill out your roster, you're way better off going after the guy with 2 years of college experience over a HS player because you can always recruit them from the transfer portal down the road.
Although, they did say the best bet a future pro talent is going to come from HS as, most of them didn't see many future pros in the portal. It's mostly depth pieces.
Another thing they questioned was the guys (like a Tyler Cochran) who go from low/mid-major to low/mid-major. They said you might see a slight bump in production but often you don't because there's typically a learning curve and guys are coached differently and they have different teammates so the success or production they showed at the first school, doesn't always translate to the next school.
There also seemed to be some confusion over these guys who are in the portal a 2nd time and are assuming they're going to just transfer again without the year penalty. And...that so far, the NCAA has been allowing it for some reason, but they're thinking if the NCAA ever starts to impose the year penalty again, that will quash a lot of it. But again, they don't seem to understand what is happening and it's only reinforcing and encouraging guys to jump from team to team to team.
They think it hurts their development and the players are worse off for it.
Anyway, that was long and I didn't realize I was going to rehash that much of it but it's a pretty interesting read.
I just had to read it and always keep schools like NIU in the back of my mind and see how this effects the lower level/successful programs and how increasingly harder it is for them to dig themselves out.
I wouldn't be surprised, if things don't change, that neither Williams nor Amos finish their careers at NIU. They're probably the two highest profile guys we have and Williams had a great year last year. If he follows that up, he's sure as gone. And Amos will probably be looking at NIU as a stepping stone as well.
But that's the environment the NCAA has created and programs as NIU are the most helpless to combat it.