(09-13-2021 08:39 PM)chargeradio Wrote: What saved the Old Big East/American was the BCS. It wasn't going to go away because there was a contract to fill. Navy also was alter to join in 2015. I think this would have likely been the American for 2013:
Rutgers
Connecticut
Temple
UCF
USF
Memphis
SMU
Houston
East Carolina (joining in 2013 instead of 2014)
Tulane (joining in 2013 instead of 2014)
Tulsa replaces Rutgers in 2014.
Navy joins in 2015, but this now gives the American 11 teams. Likely they take Marshall, Buffalo, or Northern Illinois. C-USA would fill Marshall's spot from the Sun Belt (providing permanent football only status for NMSU in the SBC). The MAC would likely still have UMass for football only even today.
You're missing the loss resulting from UMD going to the Big Ten. The ACC either takes from the AAC, or they take from the Big 12, which in turn takes from the AAC. Although I suppose the ACC could simply choose not to replace UMD. Here's my stab at a potential timeline:
Big East FB 2012 (9+1): Houston, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, SMU, Syracuse, Temple*, UCF, UConn, USF
* Temple is a FB-only affiliate if the C7 (and thus Villanova) are still with the FB schools
AAC 2013 (11): East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, Rutgers, SMU, Temple, Tulane, Tulsa, UCF, UConn, USF
Rutgers to Big Ten
Houston to Big 12 (to replace Louisville, which replaces Maryland in the ACC)
AAC 2014 (11): East Carolina, Marshall(?), Memphis, Rice(?), SMU, Temple, Tulane, Tulsa, UCF, UConn, USF
AAC 2015 (12)
East Division: East Carolina, Marshall(?), Temple, UCF, UConn, USF
West Division: Memphis, Navy*, Rice(?), SMU, Tulane, Tulsa
I don't know if the ACC would really have taken UConn, for fear that Clemson and FSU would revolt. But if the new Big 12 members sign on to a grant of rights like the one the conference signed in 2012 in our timeline, then the ACC can't take from there either. Faced with no palatable options, maybe the ACC does actually stand pat at 13 FB members, plus non-FB ND.
For the AAC, this means they retain Houston either instead of UConn or instead of Rice.