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Who'd have been next in line for the OBE/AAC in the Great Realignment?
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #1
Who'd have been next in line for the OBE/AAC in the Great Realignment?
Suppose that the Big 12 did actually expand back to 12 for the 2012 season, scooping up Cincinnati and Louisville in addition to TCU and WVU. This leaves the Big East rather shorthanded from a FB perspective, with just Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, UConn, and USF.

The Big East likely invites the same replacement schools as they did in our timeline, and probably in the same order, just sooner. ND follows Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC; the C7 break off; Rutgers and Maryland head to the Big Ten; the ACC plucks Louisville away from the Big 12 after just a couple seasons; the Big 12 helps itself to another AAC school (Houston?); and we're left with an AAC that's short of the magic number 12 by two schools even after picking up Tulsa and having Navy join as FB-only.

Assuming the AAC does still want a CCG and is operating under the old 12-school minimum for a divisional split, who else do they add?

Rice is an obvious choice, especially if Houston is tapped by the Big 12, though I don't know if Rice would have been interested in upping its game. (A relevant question for today too.) Beyond that, though, I really don't know.
(This post was last modified: 09-13-2021 07:29 PM by Nerdlinger.)
09-13-2021 07:28 PM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #2
RE: Who'd have been next in line for the OBE/AAC in the Great Realignment?
(09-13-2021 07:28 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Suppose that the Big 12 did actually expand back to 12 for the 2012 season, scooping up Cincinnati and Louisville in addition to TCU and WVU. This leaves the Big East rather shorthanded from a FB perspective, with just Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, UConn, and USF.

The Big East likely invites the same replacement schools as they did in our timeline, and probably in the same order, just sooner. ND follows Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC; the C7 break off; Rutgers and Maryland head to the Big Ten; the ACC plucks Louisville away from the Big 12 after just a couple seasons; the Big 12 helps itself to another AAC school (Houston?); and we're left with an AAC that's short of the magic number 12 by two schools even after picking up Tulsa and having Navy join as FB-only.

Assuming the AAC does still want a CCG and is operating under the old 12-school minimum for a divisional split, who else do they add?

Rice is an obvious choice, especially if Houston is tapped by the Big 12, though I don't know if Rice would have been interested in upping its game. (A relevant question for today too.) Beyond that, though, I really don't know.

Honestly, I think the Big East disbands as a football entity had Cincinnati and Louisville been invited to the Big 12 at the same time as WVU.

Pitt and Syracuse already had invitations out, they were just waiting out the 27 months.

ND and the Catholic 7 weren’t going to bring in 5 more full members to accommodate UConn, Rutgers, and USF. I think those 3 have to scramble to schedule as independents until Big Ten expansion and its fall out rescue Rutgers (B10) and UConn (ACC). Only USF ends up getting a demotion to C-USA.
09-13-2021 07:40 PM
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whittx Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Who'd have been next in line for the OBE/AAC in the Great Realignment?
(09-13-2021 07:28 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Suppose that the Big 12 did actually expand back to 12 for the 2012 season, scooping up Cincinnati and Louisville in addition to TCU and WVU. This leaves the Big East rather shorthanded from a FB perspective, with just Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, UConn, and USF.

The Big East likely invites the same replacement schools as they did in our timeline, and probably in the same order, just sooner. ND follows Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC; the C7 break off; Rutgers and Maryland head to the Big Ten; the ACC plucks Louisville away from the Big 12 after just a couple seasons; the Big 12 helps itself to another AAC school (Houston?); and we're left with an AAC that's short of the magic number 12 by two schools even after picking up Tulsa and having Navy join as FB-only.

Assuming the AAC does still want a CCG and is operating under the old 12-school minimum for a divisional split, who else do they add?

Rice is an obvious choice, especially if Houston is tapped by the Big 12, though I don't know if Rice would have been interested in upping its game. (A relevant question for today too.) Beyond that, though, I really don't know.
We are assuming FB focus so Southern Miss would be one. Maybe LA Tech ?
09-13-2021 08:04 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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RE: Who'd have been next in line for the OBE/AAC in the Great Realignment?
(09-13-2021 08:04 PM)whittx Wrote:  
(09-13-2021 07:28 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Suppose that the Big 12 did actually expand back to 12 for the 2012 season, scooping up Cincinnati and Louisville in addition to TCU and WVU. This leaves the Big East rather shorthanded from a FB perspective, with just Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, UConn, and USF.

The Big East likely invites the same replacement schools as they did in our timeline, and probably in the same order, just sooner. ND follows Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC; the C7 break off; Rutgers and Maryland head to the Big Ten; the ACC plucks Louisville away from the Big 12 after just a couple seasons; the Big 12 helps itself to another AAC school (Houston?); and we're left with an AAC that's short of the magic number 12 by two schools even after picking up Tulsa and having Navy join as FB-only.

Assuming the AAC does still want a CCG and is operating under the old 12-school minimum for a divisional split, who else do they add?

Rice is an obvious choice, especially if Houston is tapped by the Big 12, though I don't know if Rice would have been interested in upping its game. (A relevant question for today too.) Beyond that, though, I really don't know.
We are assuming FB focus so Southern Miss would be one. Maybe LA Tech ?

Well, they were also still in the "marketz" mindset.
09-13-2021 08:15 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Who'd have been next in line for the OBE/AAC in the Great Realignment?
(09-13-2021 08:04 PM)whittx Wrote:  
(09-13-2021 07:28 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Suppose that the Big 12 did actually expand back to 12 for the 2012 season, scooping up Cincinnati and Louisville in addition to TCU and WVU. This leaves the Big East rather shorthanded from a FB perspective, with just Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, UConn, and USF.

The Big East likely invites the same replacement schools as they did in our timeline, and probably in the same order, just sooner. ND follows Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC; the C7 break off; Rutgers and Maryland head to the Big Ten; the ACC plucks Louisville away from the Big 12 after just a couple seasons; the Big 12 helps itself to another AAC school (Houston?); and we're left with an AAC that's short of the magic number 12 by two schools even after picking up Tulsa and having Navy join as FB-only.

Assuming the AAC does still want a CCG and is operating under the old 12-school minimum for a divisional split, who else do they add?

Rice is an obvious choice, especially if Houston is tapped by the Big 12, though I don't know if Rice would have been interested in upping its game. (A relevant question for today too.) Beyond that, though, I really don't know.
We are assuming FB focus so Southern Miss would be one. Maybe LA Tech ?

IIRC, this was around when Southern Miss destroyed Houston, who was ranked #6 I believe, in CUSA CCG on ABC. They were a hot name at the time, but I can’t see their location/budget getting in a very urban-centric league. LA Tech was also good (fringe top-25) around 2012, but same issue.

I’d bet Rice and Marshall here. UAB was pre-Bill Clark. Georgia St, Charlotte, ODU, UTSA, etc weren’t viable options yet.
09-13-2021 08:23 PM
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RE: Who'd have been next in line for the OBE/AAC in the Great Realignment?
What saved the Old Big East/American was the BCS. It wasn't going to go away because there was a contract to fill. Navy also was alter to join in 2015. I think this would have likely been the American for 2013:

Rutgers
Connecticut
Temple
UCF
USF
Memphis
SMU
Houston
East Carolina (joining in 2013 instead of 2014)
Tulane (joining in 2013 instead of 2014)

Tulsa replaces Rutgers in 2014.

Navy joins in 2015, but this now gives the American 11 teams. Likely they take Marshall, Buffalo, or Northern Illinois. C-USA would fill Marshall's spot from the Sun Belt (providing permanent football only status for NMSU in the SBC). The MAC would likely still have UMass for football only even today.

Alternatively, if C-USA had not rushed to fill all the vacancies, it merges with the Big East, the C-7 splits and takes the name, and C-USA has a BCS AQ for 2013:


C-USA West:
Memphis, SMU, Houston, Tulsa, UTEP, Rice, Tulane, USM

C-USA East:
Rutgers, East Carolina, Marshall, UAB, UConn, Temple, UCF, USF

C-USA would play with 13 in 2014, then Navy joins the West and USM moves to the East in 2015 (and then UAB drops and adds back football).

Without losing four members to C-USA in 2013, and one in 2014, the Sun Belt looks a lot different:

West - North Texas, Arkansas State, Louisiana, ULM, USA, Troy
East - FAU, FIU, Georgia State, WKU, MTSU, Georgia Southern (2014)

The WAC holds on to Louisiana Tech, UTSA, and Texas State. They along with NMSU rebuild a primarily southern conference:

WAC - NMSU, Texas State, UTSA, Louisiana Tech, App State, Coastal Carolina, Old Dominion, Charlotte, Idaho (football only)

Idaho eventually bugs out. The WAC expands to 12 with Eastern Kentucky, Jacksonville (AL) State, Missouri State, and UT-Arlington.
09-13-2021 08:39 PM
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BigEastMike Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Who'd have been next in line for the OBE/AAC in the Great Realignment?
(09-13-2021 07:28 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Suppose that the Big 12 did actually expand back to 12 for the 2012 season, scooping up Cincinnati and Louisville in addition to TCU and WVU. This leaves the Big East rather shorthanded from a FB perspective, with just Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, UConn, and USF.

The Big East likely invites the same replacement schools as they did in our timeline, and probably in the same order, just sooner. ND follows Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC; the C7 break off; Rutgers and Maryland head to the Big Ten; the ACC plucks Louisville away from the Big 12 after just a couple seasons; the Big 12 helps itself to another AAC school (Houston?); and we're left with an AAC that's short of the magic number 12 by two schools even after picking up Tulsa and having Navy join as FB-only.

Assuming the AAC does still want a CCG and is operating under the old 12-school minimum for a divisional split, who else do they add?

Rice is an obvious choice, especially if Houston is tapped by the Big 12, though I don't know if Rice would have been interested in upping its game. (A relevant question for today too.) Beyond that, though, I really don't know.

I don't think Louisville leaves the Big XII for the ACC then and the ACC takes UConn. USF and the members already invited continue on and the two extra members are probably UAB and Marshall.
09-13-2021 09:05 PM
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templefootballfan Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Who'd have been next in line for the OBE/AAC in the Great Realignment?
Louv was never in B-12
09-13-2021 09:33 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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RE: Who'd have been next in line for the OBE/AAC in the Great Realignment?
(09-13-2021 08:39 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  What saved the Old Big East/American was the BCS. It wasn't going to go away because there was a contract to fill. Navy also was alter to join in 2015. I think this would have likely been the American for 2013:

Rutgers
Connecticut
Temple
UCF
USF
Memphis
SMU
Houston
East Carolina (joining in 2013 instead of 2014)
Tulane (joining in 2013 instead of 2014)

Tulsa replaces Rutgers in 2014.

Navy joins in 2015, but this now gives the American 11 teams. Likely they take Marshall, Buffalo, or Northern Illinois. C-USA would fill Marshall's spot from the Sun Belt (providing permanent football only status for NMSU in the SBC). The MAC would likely still have UMass for football only even today.

You're missing the loss resulting from UMD going to the Big Ten. The ACC either takes from the AAC, or they take from the Big 12, which in turn takes from the AAC. Although I suppose the ACC could simply choose not to replace UMD. Here's my stab at a potential timeline:

Big East FB 2012 (9+1): Houston, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, SMU, Syracuse, Temple*, UCF, UConn, USF

* Temple is a FB-only affiliate if the C7 (and thus Villanova) are still with the FB schools

AAC 2013 (11): East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, Rutgers, SMU, Temple, Tulane, Tulsa, UCF, UConn, USF

Rutgers to Big Ten
Houston to Big 12 (to replace Louisville, which replaces Maryland in the ACC)

AAC 2014 (11): East Carolina, Marshall(?), Memphis, Rice(?), SMU, Temple, Tulane, Tulsa, UCF, UConn, USF

AAC 2015 (12)
East Division: East Carolina, Marshall(?), Temple, UCF, UConn, USF
West Division: Memphis, Navy*, Rice(?), SMU, Tulane, Tulsa

I don't know if the ACC would really have taken UConn, for fear that Clemson and FSU would revolt. But if the new Big 12 members sign on to a grant of rights like the one the conference signed in 2012 in our timeline, then the ACC can't take from there either. Faced with no palatable options, maybe the ACC does actually stand pat at 13 FB members, plus non-FB ND.

For the AAC, this means they retain Houston either instead of UConn or instead of Rice.
(This post was last modified: 09-13-2021 10:29 PM by Nerdlinger.)
09-13-2021 10:28 PM
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RE: Who'd have been next in line for the OBE/AAC in the Great Realignment?
(09-13-2021 08:39 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  Idaho eventually bugs out. The WAC expands to 12 with Eastern Kentucky, Jacksonville (AL) State, Missouri State, and UT-Arlington.
03-drunk
09-14-2021 04:35 PM
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