(12-23-2020 11:16 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Well considering the levels of instability right now at Boise State (no athletic director, no football head coach and budget issues), I think it is unlikely any move gets made in the near-term.

Yes, which to me again suggests AAC caution. Why is Boise suddenly eager to make overtures? You don't do that from a position of perceived strength, and there's zero evidence Boise was interested in the AAC over the past seven years.

But now, with thing in disarray, they are interested. As someone else said, Boise is looking to the AAC to pull some chestnuts out of their fires for them.

(12-23-2020 11:30 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-23-2020 11:16 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Well considering the levels of instability right now at Boise State (no athletic director, no football head coach and budget issues), I think it is unlikely any move gets made in the near-term.

Yes, which to me again suggests AAC caution. Why is Boise suddenly eager to make overtures? You don't do that from a position of perceived strength, and there's zero evidence Boise was interested in the AAC over the past seven years.

But now, with thing in disarray, they are interested. As someone else said, Boise is looking to the AAC to pull some chestnuts out of their fires for them.

Simple. The circumstances that led to them returning to the MW have changed. They went back to the MW because the conference offered them a special deal that made it financially logical for them to return. That deal was supposed to be permanent. The MW has now made it clear that the special deal will not be permanent and will sunset at the end of the current media deal (5 season from now).

The MW is no longer the most financially lucrative option for the Broncos. Its that simple. Throw in that there is friction over how the deal was pulled behind closed doors---and the feeling by Boise that too many MW teams arent that committed to football---and its easy to see why the Broncos might feel its now in their best interests to join the AAC "P6" movement--which is really just a step toward the original nationwide "best of the rest" concept the Big East was shooting for in 2011.

(12-23-2020 12:12 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Simple. The circumstances that led them returning to the MW have changed. They went back to the MW because the conference offered them a special deal that made it financially logical for them to return. That deal was supposed to be permanent. The MW has now made it clear that the special deal will not be permanent and will sunset at the end of the current media deal (5 season from now).

The MW is no longer the most financially lucrative option for the Broncos. Its that simple. Throw in that there is friction over how the deal was pulled behind closed doors---and the feeling by Boise that too many MW teams arent that committed to football---and its easy to see why the Broncos might feel its now in their best interests to join the AAC "P6" movement--which is really just a step toward the original nationwide "best of the rest" concept the Big East was shooting for in 2011.

Good points. I would add that ithe AAC's ability to qualify for the NY6 bowl four years in a row and 5 of 7 has gotten their attention as well. I believe Boise last appeared in the NY6 in 2014. I also give kudos to our Commissioner and to the league presidents for not having an "itchy trigger finger" to immediately add a program once UConn made it known they were leaving. It really gives our league a position of strength, in particular if Boise is in fact interested in joining.

Ok guys here is the future. I see texas and Florida st go to SEC. I see Cincinnati Notre dame and Ucf go acc. Oklahoma Oklahoma st Kansas Texas tech to pac 12 Iowa st and west virginia to big 10 and TCU Baylor Kansas st Houston SMU Colorado state byu Memphis boise state UNLV San Diego st Tulsa to try and do a new big 12 and then you will see odu Charlotte marshall southern miss app st uab all get a shot at a watered down aac and maybe you will finally see north Dakota st in mountain west, maybe with Montana Just guessing. I think army will stay independent

Oh and Wichita state will go big east

P5 power play and big 12 has short end of stick

(12-23-2020 01:55 PM)jaybird44 Wrote:  Ok guys here is the future. I see texas and Florida st go to SEC. I see Cincinnati Notre dame and Ucf go acc. Oklahoma Oklahoma st Kansas Texas tech to pac 12 Iowa st and west virginia to big 10 and TCU Baylor Kansas st Houston SMU Colorado state byu Memphis boise state UNLV San Diego st Tulsa to try and do a new big 12 and then you will see odu Charlotte marshall southern miss app st uab all get a shot at a watered down aac and maybe you will finally see north Dakota st in mountain west, maybe with Montana Just guessing. I think army will stay independent

West Virginia to the Big Ten is as likely as Lehigh University to the NFL. The Big Ten would never let WVU in for academic reasons.

(12-23-2020 02:13 PM)UConnHusky Wrote:  

(12-23-2020 01:55 PM)jaybird44 Wrote:  Ok guys here is the future. I see texas and Florida st go to SEC. I see Cincinnati Notre dame and Ucf go acc. Oklahoma Oklahoma st Kansas Texas tech to pac 12 Iowa st and west virginia to big 10 and TCU Baylor Kansas st Houston SMU Colorado state byu Memphis boise state UNLV San Diego st Tulsa to try and do a new big 12 and then you will see odu Charlotte marshall southern miss app st uab all get a shot at a watered down aac and maybe you will finally see north Dakota st in mountain west, maybe with Montana Just guessing. I think army will stay independent

West Virginia to the Big Ten is as likely as Lehigh University to the NFL. The Big Ten would never let WVU in for academic reasons.

Beat me to it. That’s why they didn’t get the ACC nod also.

(12-23-2020 01:08 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(12-22-2020 08:45 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  For the millionth time, schools get moved up not conferences. The cartel with ESPN’s blessing will take one or two schools perhaps three and call it a day.

The American will never be a power conference. That doesn’t mean there’s not hot properties like Cincinnati that one day might be part of a power conference. Until then it’s the best G5 conference in the CFP era just like the MWC was in the BCS era.

Yes. If any non-power conference gets too good, the power schools will take the top couple of schools to prevent more competitors from moving up.

They did it in 1977. The WAC became very respectable, with Arizona State, Arizona, and BYU having ranked teams in the previous 3 years and several other solid programs like Utah and Colorado State. The PAC swooped in and took Arizona and ASU to stop it.

They failed to do it in 1992. They allowed the Big East to elevate the profile of minor programs Virginia Tech and Rutgers (and to a lesser extent, West Virginia). The lower-tier power schools only belatedly realized what a mistake this was.

The ACC tried and failed to correct this error in 2003 because Syracuse wisely refused to budge. This move only served to elevate previously minor programs in Cincinnati, Louisville, USF, and UConn.

They cut off the heads of two conferences in 2011. The MWC was demoted by taking TCU and Utah. Five Big East schools were demoted by picking off the top 3 programs, (although the next year two of the schools left behind were taken for other reasons).

The lesson: if you want to gain entry into a top conference, you better boost up your conference mates. But make sure you're still at the top of your conference or else you'll get left behind.

I have to say that I agree with the Captain. Historically, whenever another program or conference starts to demonstrate that they can perform on par with the elites they either get co-opted into the club piecemeal, dissecting and eliminating the threat.

I’d argue that some other earlier expansion (Colorado and Oklahoma St to the Big 8 and TTU and Houston to the SWC) fit the same pattern.

1989-1992 was all about solidifying the lucrative programs into their own tier.

Big East football came into being because the ACC and Big Ten weren’t aggressive enough in their Northeastern expansion strategy. Historically good programs Miami, Pitt, Cuse, and arguably WVU were supplemented by some historically lack luster programs (BC, Rutgers, Temple, and VT).

The folding of the SWC was the realization that the big public schools were being held back by the weaker privates.

At the end of the Early 90s realignment the top tier was 67 schools.

The SWC folding in 1996 saw that number fall to 63. (Hou, TCU, SMU, Rice out)

The ACC raid on the Big East brought the number up to 66. (Temple out, USF, Cincy, L’ville, and UConn in)

The 2010-2013 moves saw the number shift to 65 (TCU returned, Utah was elevated, Cincinnati, USF, and UConn were all booted after their brief stay in the club that began less than a decade prior)

For Boise State and for the AAC as a whole, there's really no reason to engage in a partnership at this date.

The reason is that the Big 12 might very well fall apart within the next 4 years. If that happens then we will see more titanic reverberations. And they will be a little hard to predict.

(12-23-2020 02:28 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I have to say that I agree with the Captain. Historically, whenever another program or conference starts to demonstrate that they can perform on par with the elites they either get co-opted into the club piecemeal, dissecting and eliminating the threat.

I’d argue that some other earlier expansion (Colorado and Oklahoma St to the Big 8 and TTU and Houston to the SWC) fit the same pattern.

1989-1992 was all about solidifying the lucrative programs into their own tier.

Big East football came into being because the ACC and Big Ten weren’t aggressive enough in their Northeastern expansion strategy. Historically good programs Miami, Pitt, Cuse, and arguably WVU were supplemented by some historically lack luster programs (BC, Rutgers, Temple, and VT).

The folding of the SWC was the realization that the big public schools were being held back by the weaker privates.

At the end of the Early 90s realignment the top tier was 67 schools.

The SWC folding in 1996 saw that number fall to 63. (Hou, TCU, SMU, Rice out)

The ACC raid on the Big East brought the number up to 66. (Temple out, USF, Cincy, L’ville, and UConn in)

The 2010-2013 moves saw the number shift to 65 (TCU returned, Utah was elevated, Cincinnati, USF, and UConn were all booted after their brief stay in the club that began less than a decade prior)

Colorado, OK State, and Houston all left their respective conferences and went Independent before joining another league. There wasn’t a conspiracy from the stronger conferences to destroy the Skyline or MVC, or any other of those smaller regional conferences.

You’ve just given an overview of some movement, where’s the conspiracy? Why isn’t Boise State in the Pac 12 or Big XII if they’re such a threat? Cincinnati in the Big 10? Memphis in the SEC? ECU in the ACC?

Because you guys aren’t looking at what actually happened, which I explained earlier.

(12-23-2020 12:12 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-23-2020 11:30 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-23-2020 11:16 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Well considering the levels of instability right now at Boise State (no athletic director, no football head coach and budget issues), I think it is unlikely any move gets made in the near-term.

Yes, which to me again suggests AAC caution. Why is Boise suddenly eager to make overtures? You don't do that from a position of perceived strength, and there's zero evidence Boise was interested in the AAC over the past seven years.

But now, with thing in disarray, they are interested. As someone else said, Boise is looking to the AAC to pull some chestnuts out of their fires for them.

Simple. The circumstances that led to them returning to the MW have changed. They went back to the MW because the conference offered them a special deal that made it financially logical for them to return. That deal was supposed to be permanent. The MW has now made it clear that the special deal will not be permanent and will sunset at the end of the current media deal (5 season from now).

The MW is no longer the most financially lucrative option for the Broncos. Its that simple. Throw in that there is friction over how the deal was pulled behind closed doors---and the feeling by Boise that too many MW teams arent that committed to football---and its easy to see why the Broncos might feel its now in their best interests to join the AAC "P6" movement--which is really just a step toward the original nationwide "best of the rest" concept the Big East was shooting for in 2011.

I'm not against taking advantage of a "fire sale". Maybe Boise's MW woes are just a great chance for the AAC to nab them on the cheap. That's possible. But it's also possible that Boise is Cold Product, and the apparent sale price is actually over-priced.

The MW has made it clear they no longer think Boise is worth what they were getting, so much so that they brazenly tried to end the deal right now in clear defiance of the terms of the 2012 agreement. So it's kind of like if someone comes looking to you for a job and has some great credentials, but then you ask what happened at their last job and they say they got fired. You have to wonder why they got fired.

Boise is getting fired from the MW.

(12-23-2020 03:21 PM)esayem Wrote:  Colorado, OK State, and Houston all left their respective conferences and went Independent before joining another league. There wasn’t a conspiracy from the stronger conferences to destroy the Skyline or MVC, or any other of those smaller regional conferences.

Colorado's last season as a football independent was 1909, long before they joined the Skyline/MSAC or the Big 6/7/8. Colorado State was a football independent for several years before joining the WAC in 1968.

At any rate, the Skyline/MSAC seems like it was a somewhat informal grouping whose membership fluctuated quite a bit, sometimes from year to year. You can see the fluctuations in membership by scrolling through the season-by-season football standings here: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/con...s/skyline/

There were many college athletic conferences that were unstable before the 1970s, so there isn't much point in comparing 1950s movement between conferences to 2020.

(12-23-2020 03:21 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(12-23-2020 02:28 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I have to say that I agree with the Captain. Historically, whenever another program or conference starts to demonstrate that they can perform on par with the elites they either get co-opted into the club piecemeal, dissecting and eliminating the threat.

I’d argue that some other earlier expansion (Colorado and Oklahoma St to the Big 8 and TTU and Houston to the SWC) fit the same pattern.

1989-1992 was all about solidifying the lucrative programs into their own tier.

Big East football came into being because the ACC and Big Ten weren’t aggressive enough in their Northeastern expansion strategy. Historically good programs Miami, Pitt, Cuse, and arguably WVU were supplemented by some historically lack luster programs (BC, Rutgers, Temple, and VT).

The folding of the SWC was the realization that the big public schools were being held back by the weaker privates.

At the end of the Early 90s realignment the top tier was 67 schools.

The SWC folding in 1996 saw that number fall to 63. (Hou, TCU, SMU, Rice out)

The ACC raid on the Big East brought the number up to 66. (Temple out, USF, Cincy, L’ville, and UConn in)

The 2010-2013 moves saw the number shift to 65 (TCU returned, Utah was elevated, Cincinnati, USF, and UConn were all booted after their brief stay in the club that began less than a decade prior)

Colorado, OK State, and Houston all left their respective conferences and went Independent before joining another league. There wasn’t a conspiracy from the stronger conferences to destroy the Skyline or MVC, or any other of those smaller regional conferences.

You’ve just given an overview of some movement, where’s the conspiracy? Why isn’t Boise State in the Pac 12 or Big XII if they’re such a threat? Cincinnati in the Big 10? Memphis in the SEC? ECU in the ACC?

Because you guys aren’t looking at what actually happened, which I explained earlier.

I dont think he ever said it was a "conspiracy". I think he was just saying what the pattern was---which is essentially a tendency for the top layer of college football to become a smaller and more exclusive after each round of realignment.

(12-23-2020 02:40 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  For Boise State and for the AAC as a whole, there's really no reason to engage in a partnership at this date.

The reason is that the Big 12 might very well fall apart within the next 4 years. If that happens then we will see more titanic reverberations. And they will be a little hard to predict.

Very true. If a big realignment occurs in 2024, the AAC could find 5 of its best members moving to the Big 12 and then the disparity between the AAC and MWC would be less pronounced, if not in favor of the MWC.

The first part of this article is essentially lays out exactly why its an absolutely automatic "yes" for the AAC to add Boise as a "football only" member of they are interested. The below line pretty much sums it up.

Most Group of 5 schools — heck, many Power 5 ones as well — spend decades and untold millions looking to establish what Boise did long ago: tradition, culture, identity, brand. It would fair to say Boise State is the Notre Dame of the Group of 5.



https://footballscoop.com/news/bryan-har...from-here/

(12-23-2020 03:21 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(12-23-2020 02:28 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I have to say that I agree with the Captain. Historically, whenever another program or conference starts to demonstrate that they can perform on par with the elites they either get co-opted into the club piecemeal, dissecting and eliminating the threat.

I’d argue that some other earlier expansion (Colorado and Oklahoma St to the Big 8 and TTU and Houston to the SWC) fit the same pattern.

1989-1992 was all about solidifying the lucrative programs into their own tier.

Big East football came into being because the ACC and Big Ten weren’t aggressive enough in their Northeastern expansion strategy. Historically good programs Miami, Pitt, Cuse, and arguably WVU were supplemented by some historically lack luster programs (BC, Rutgers, Temple, and VT).

The folding of the SWC was the realization that the big public schools were being held back by the weaker privates.

At the end of the Early 90s realignment the top tier was 67 schools.

The SWC folding in 1996 saw that number fall to 63. (Hou, TCU, SMU, Rice out)

The ACC raid on the Big East brought the number up to 66. (Temple out, USF, Cincy, L’ville, and UConn in)

The 2010-2013 moves saw the number shift to 65 (TCU returned, Utah was elevated, Cincinnati, USF, and UConn were all booted after their brief stay in the club that began less than a decade prior)

Colorado, OK State, and Houston all left their respective conferences and went Independent before joining another league. There wasn’t a conspiracy from the stronger conferences to destroy the Skyline or MVC, or any other of those smaller regional conferences.

You’ve just given an overview of some movement, where’s the conspiracy? Why isn’t Boise State in the Pac 12 or Big XII if they’re such a threat? Cincinnati in the Big 10? Memphis in the SEC? ECU in the ACC?

Because you guys aren’t looking at what actually happened, which I explained earlier.

You’re incorrect regarding Colorado—they didn’t have an Independent phase. While not a conspiracy to weaken another conference, it does show that when the P conferences saw a rising competitor they’ve co-opted them.

The establishment sees the mid 60s as the sweet spot for the size of the upper crust. Had the 2005-2012 remained in the BCS club and the MWC ascended into that level, bolstered by Utah, BYU, TCU, and let’s say hypothetically Boise St was added too, we’re not looking at 67 big time schools, we’re looking at 77.

There’s no conspiracy but there certainly is a level of comfort among the big leagues as to how many major programs should be and we’ve seen roughly the same number of schools in a 7 conference system, a 6 conference system, and most recently a 5 conference system. It’s all about the placement of the tent pole programs and if we see the Big 12’s tent poles decide to move to where there’s more money we will likely witness the birth of a 4 conference system.

Conferences that feel vulnerable have a tendency to bite of the heads of their nascent competitors and the apex predator conferences will cherry pick when they see an opportunity. It’s the nature of conference realignment.

Yes, my mistake with Colorado. I must have been thinking of another program. Most programs back then left their conference to become an Independent when they outgrew it: West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Memphis, Cincinnati, ECU, North Texas, the list goes on.

But to say on-field success was/is the whole reason for expansion or leaving a conference is naive. The addition of CCG’s has been the single most powerful driver of expansion the last thirty years. So much so that every single FBS conference has one!

(12-23-2020 02:13 PM)UConnHusky Wrote:  

(12-23-2020 01:55 PM)jaybird44 Wrote:  Ok guys here is the future. I see texas and Florida st go to SEC. I see Cincinnati Notre dame and Ucf go acc. Oklahoma Oklahoma st Kansas Texas tech to pac 12 Iowa st and west virginia to big 10 and TCU Baylor Kansas st Houston SMU Colorado state byu Memphis boise state UNLV San Diego st Tulsa to try and do a new big 12 and then you will see odu Charlotte marshall southern miss app st uab all get a shot at a watered down aac and maybe you will finally see north Dakota st in mountain west, maybe with Montana Just guessing. I think army will stay independent

West Virginia to the Big Ten is as likely as Lehigh University to the NFL. The Big Ten would never let WVU in for academic reasons.

Normally I would agree with you but money rules everything and brother that's all it's about. If Lehigh had the money, the nfl would listen lol. Seriously it's all about the benjamins

(12-23-2020 01:57 PM)jaybird44 Wrote:  Oh and Wichita state will go big east

Wichita State fits the Big East as much as the Saw franchise with Disney.