(07-09-2019 08:24 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote: I'm factoring in CFP expansion with at least x2 CFP money AND renegotiating upwards with ESPN to the 25-30 million range.
I'm factoring in the fact that if the first happens, there still won't be any incremental growth to it due to UConn and partner (whomever they may be) being a FB-only associate, so it's still a hard "no" on sharing that with FB-only associates who do not expand on it in any way.
"Renegotiating with ESPN" to add $25m-$30m only results in editing the observation that it is absurd to believe that adding UConn and any other actually available school will add more than 300% to the ESPN deal to the observation that it's also absurd to believe that it will add more than 200% to the ESPN deal.
Quote: Longer term potential. We'll have to see how the MWC's numbers come in first.
Quote: Could ESPN consider a renegotiation w/ expansion and mull it over for a year or two to finally say "sure your contract is up in a couple of years anyways" The only way a UConn deal makes any sense if ESPN is willing to pay up $$$.
You are making the tail wag the dog in your argument ... if the only way a UConn deal makes any sense is if ESPN is willing to pay up $$$, then the only non-fantasy based conclusion
on your premises the deal simply doesn't make any sense. Which would be fine ... there's no reason to believe that every conceivable deal makes sense.
Quote: This idea that UConn would join for no money and that the MAC would not get an increase with ESPN that you float doesn't make sense for anyone involved.
It costs money and for some schools also costs games in other sports to put together an independent schedule. You have to pay for games, you have to put together multi-sport agreements that your other programs would rather not do (or else they would already be scheduling those games), and you get next to nothing from the CFP pool. Now the more independent schools there are, the easier it gets, but it's still nowhere near as easy as it was when I was in college.
There are now enough independent schools that UConn could probably do fine with a three game scheduling agreement similar to what Army once had with the MAC. Even if UConn can get it's FB program on the mend, it still may be a few years yet before the limited access to bowl games is an actual factor.
As to what is in it for the MAC ... that depends on what the offer from UConn and partner is. If they can't put together a package that gets 2/3 of MAC Presidents behind the package, then the answer is simply no.
But it's not going to be driven by a 200%+ increase in media money from ESPN, negotiated halfway through a decade long contract extension.