(06-19-2012 05:52 AM)BRtransplant Wrote: (06-18-2012 06:39 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: Ok..USM and ECU are grabbed up in the next round. Who wants to leave the Sun Belt in that case for CUSA? I'm not sure anyone should leave the Sun Belt in that case except FAU. Does anyone want to bust the travel budget to play Rice, Tulane, UAB, FIU, UNT, UTSA, UNCC, UTEP, Tulsa, Old Dominion, Marshall, and La Tech? Of the 12 teams likely left in the CUSA after a further nBE raid, who is left to justify leaving? And it gets even worse if the MWC takes Tulsa.
UTSA doesn't have a FBS schedule this year. UNCC won't be up and running till 2017. UAB is a disaster. Tulane and Rice aren't moving in the right direction. UNT hasn't had a winning season in 6 years. FIU has had two winning seasons - ever. UTEP hasn't had a winning season in years. Old Dominion is a move up. La Tech, while having a good season last year, has hardly been much to covet recently. Marshall is a good program - in a faraway and difficult to reach place for all except WKU and MTSU.
Unless the Big East and/or MWC poach UTSA or UNT (which I don't see), I don't see a CUSA (without USM/ECU and possibly Tulsa) having much to offer. Do you really think a conference like that is going to hold onto 6 bowl tie ins? Or have much to sell to the TV networks? I just see a lot of travel in the most likely CUSA expansion scenario.
Of course, its possible that CUSA tries to damage the Belt irrespective of a raid by the nBE/MWC by going after MTSU and/or WKU. That would not be good. But I think that the lower money per institution is going to drive opposition by many of the existing schools to avoid further dilution.
In other words, we are good for the next year. And in the most likely CUSA expansion scenario, we're probably good as well.
MT to CUSA is all but a sure thing in the next round of realignment. The question will be whether or not CUSA opts to take either of FAU or WKU. Both have attributes that would make them attractive, and both would accept in a heartbeat.
If a bid were extended today, both would (and should accept). But without USM and ECU? Or without USM, ECU, and Tulsa? Why would they? The would be opening themselves up to massive new travel costs to play with
1) Rice - 1 winning season in the last 10 years. Truly awful football and gets no coverage in their home market. They play in an old stadium that is a fifth full for conference games.
2) UTSA - Moveup. Lost to a D-III school last year. Supposedly FBS this year, but....they play 4 non-FBS teams this year. MTSU will be flying to this game.
3) UTEP - 1 winning season in the last 6 years. Have fun with the flight to El Paso.
4) Tulane - no recent winning seasons. Plays in an old facility that they never fill. Ever. The city of New Orleans just told them 'no' to their plans for an OCS. 8 hour drive or a flight.
5) UAB - A dumpster fire of a program. Old, empty, stadium. Doesn't even control their own Athletic Department. UAB is an easy drive from Murfreesboro, though.
6) FIU - Plays in a tiny stadium. 2 winning seasons - ever. MTSU will be flying to this game.
7) Marshall - Good - not great - program. Reasonably close to MTSU.
8) ODU - Has no stadium, no FBS schedule, and wont be in FBS for a few years. Another flight for MTSU
9) UNCC - Wont even be Bowl eligible till 2016 or so. Another flight.
10) La Tech - Decent program (They went to a bowl game twice in the last 10 years). No market (No Shreveport doesn't count). MTSU will likely drive this one (as commercial flights aren't really much here).
11) North Texas - 0 winning seasons in the last 6 years. New stadium. Virtually ignored in the DFW media (after the Cowboys, SMU, TCU, Baylor - just as close to parts of the metroplex as Denton), UT, OU, and Texas A&M).
Why would anyone want to leave the Belt for a conference that looks like this? A CUSA that looks like this isn't going to qualify for (much less retain) 6 bowl tie ins or any TV contract worth much.
CUSA made a huge mistake taking UTSA, Charlotte and ODU in the last round. They should have taken WKU, and MTSU. However, if CUSA gets raided, they shouldn't assume that they can just pick whomever they want from the Belt. Because the Belt is no worse than that potential CUSA, which is perhaps just one year away.