(06-15-2023 06:43 PM)BeepBeepJeep Wrote:  It could work.

I doubt it's possible to have ACC schools free to move to the SEC but assume that no ACC schools nor PAC schools could move to the B1G. That seems to be a gigantic legal mess to open up the contracts to make that possible.

This would mean the Big XII's next media deal is worth $0, because there's enough SEC inventory for all of ABC/ESPN, and the ACC inventory would be partially on ABC/ESPN (for the big games if they existed) and then on FOX/FS1 also.

Hard to see Kansas not included in that revamped ACC somehow. This super league is excluding a lot of key basketball schools.

The B1G elite are still not going to care. They'll have better network exposure and access to CFP spots by staying in the B1G, since those are going to be largely guaranteed for them.

If there's ever a super conference, Vanderbilt is simply not going to be in it. Nor will there be two Mississippi schools or have Illinois completely excluded as a state.

I also don't think the super powerful schools are going to allow ESPN to be puppeteering everything. They don't need ESPN to broker for them, at that point they would be a mini-NFL and ESPN would be their last choice, just like how the NFL treats ABC/ESPN.

Last, I can understand how this is better for ESPN if I squint, but I can't see how this is better for the soon-to-be 16 SEC members. Destroying regionality for what purpose?

The whole point to the dissolution of the Conference is that it will not dissolve ESPN's rights under the contract and the ACC Offices would exist until that was fulfilled. But it does put the ball in ESPN's court to organize the pieces as it sees fit. The could easily choose to pay 4 ACC schools pro rata in the SEC and as long as they paid the remaining ACC schools the contracted amount plus escalators for the duration of the contract. ESPN still holds the rights, it's the conference which is essentially defunct and simply wrapping up business. So there are better possibilities for this than you might assume. I don't think Notre Dame would have an issue going wherever they wished because the exit fee, which would be applicable to the 4 departing to the SEC as well, are workable, especially if paid in installments annually to the remaining schools. If ESPN agreed to wave their rights to any of the remaining full ACC members they could be freed to move to a FOX held property, but I would think negotiations would be in order. But to be clear ESPN will hold those rights until 2036.

(06-15-2023 11:38 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-15-2023 11:17 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-15-2023 08:02 AM)bullet Wrote:  The interesting thing about the latest SEC deal is the former CBS "game of the week" is worth as much as the rest of the non-SEC network games combined. There is double 2 million viewers.

ESPN paid an arm and a leg to wrangle that game away from CBS, but it did help the SEC to stay competitive with the B1G and keep the conference from getting wandering eyes.

ESPN is setting up their long game and using the SEC as a proxy. If they shift North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami to the SEC all they have to do is wait.

There is no way the Big 10 elite can stand up to that lineup. Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin will eventually come knocking and the League will be born. Notre Dame and USC will take it 28. Then ESPN can pick up 4 major market adds and they are done. Washington, Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado would be the kinds of markets they would need to make the League national in every regard.

Arizona State, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Southern California, Texas, Washington

Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Virginia

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee


Now you have a mix of programs which hit the major markets and contains all of the champions of the past 25 years or so.

You have 16 games to market every Saturday in the Fall and ESPN essentially brokers those out to ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and ESPN airs the late games on ESPN and ESPN2 and airs T2 material during the day so as not to compete directly with what they broker. The could get the 4 OTA networks to bid on games each week and if both took 2 that leaves ESPN 8 more to use for themselves, or market another way or on another day.

You have too many of the wrong players listed JR. Your list should include:
Miami, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Clemson, Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas, LSU, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, USC, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Iowa, Notre Dame, BYU/Virginia Tech.

I'm not sure you could actually find another 4 teams to get to a 4 X 8 that really should be there. Ole Miss....maybe, perhaps if you go that far down you could add South Carolina but you're scraping the bottom of the football barrel.

(06-12-2023 01:53 AM)JRsec Wrote:  PAC 12 revenue payouts for 2022 were 37 million.

ACC revenue payouts for 2022 were 37.9 million plus bowl and playoff money and tourney creds.

The SEC payouts were 49.9 but will jump closer to 75 by 2024.

What are the Options?

ESPN could move 4 ACC schools to the SEC and create a 20 team conference.

Let's assume that the schools most anxious to make more are Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina. Or that they are Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia.

In either case the ACC is reduced to 10 full member schools and Notre Dame as a partial.

Notre Dame requires games in Georgia, Florida, and might like them in Louisiana and Texas.

ESPN knows it needs late night games and preferably games with decent content.

ESPN could create two 20 team conferences, dominate content, elevate payouts for the ACCN in which they split profits, which means it's not a cash outlay, and they could nearly double the reach of the ACCN if they picked up the 10 PAC 12 schools and merged them with the ACC.

ACC:

California, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State

Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Stanford, Utah

Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, Wake Forest

Use the escalator clause for the ACC contract and establish 38 million as the payout for all. Since FOX pays half of the PAC 12 contract now, the total cost to ESPN would be 190 million for the PAC move. For the 4 ACC schools moving to the SEC the total cost would be 37 million each or 154 million.

The SEC:

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State

Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Clemson, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia

ESPN creates two 20 member Power Conferences which suck the oxygen out of further realignment.

The Big 12 expands from the Moutain West and AAC to create the 4th Conference.

The Big 10 and FOX have no place to go and stay at 16.

The ACC increases its total revenue by adding the in state subscription rate for the ACCN to Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon, Utah, and Washington. They only lose South Carolina's 5 million from the footprint in this move.

They essentially get the PAC 12 for what their full rate is now. They increase inventory which reduces cost, they make interest in the ACC national which reduces cost via advertising, and the ACC and PAC share an academic standing which is strong but not exclusive like the Big 10's.

ESPN for what likely would wind up being a total cash outlay of 150 million after the value of added inventory, enhanced markets, and in the SEC enhanced content vs content games are subtracted, and the added market reach of each subscription network (ACCN & SECN) are subtracted would be the cheapest dominance ESPN could possibly buy.

They would control 40 schools plus 1 and half of the Big 12 when it came time for votes on the postseason and the possible new hoops tourney. And considering their haul of the expanded playoff would be around 750 million a year 150 million for control, the highest volume of content, and tremendous reach and branding would seem to be a no brainer.

The split East and West Coast divisions provide plenty of local play for non revenue sports and revenue sports and cuts the number of cross country games way down.

The SEC dominates the SE for football and the ACC dominates for basketball and the two compliment each other quite well.

Should ESPN pick up Notre Dame's T1 there are ample games for the Irish to play out West, in the Deep South and at home with interesting schedules to stimulate attendance and donations.

I see a lot of potential in this.

It is one way ESPN could essentially end realignment for the foreseeable future.

About the Big 12 expanding with the MWC and AAC........why would they do that? The networks are not gonna suddenly pay close to $32 million for each new G5 school just to create a 4th conference.........and the Big 12 schools will not take on more schools to dilute any pay. Most likely, they would just sit out that round of realignment.

(06-15-2023 11:38 AM)JRsec Wrote:  ESPN is setting up their long game and using the SEC as a proxy. If they shift North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami to the SEC all they have to do is wait.

There is no way the Big 10 elite can stand up to that lineup. Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin will eventually come knocking and the League will be born. Notre Dame and USC will take it 28. Then ESPN can pick up 4 major market adds and they are done. Washington, Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado would be the kinds of markets they would need to make the League national in every regard.

Arizona State, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Southern California, Texas, Washington

Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Virginia

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee

Now you have a mix of programs which hit the major markets and contains all of the champions of the past 25 years or so.

You have 16 games to market every Saturday in the Fall and ESPN essentially brokers those out to ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and ESPN airs the late games on ESPN and ESPN2 and airs T2 material during the day so as not to compete directly with what they broker. The could get the 4 OTA networks to bid on games each week and if both took 2 that leaves ESPN 8 more to use for themselves, or market another way or on another day.

1. That may very well be ESPN's long-term plan.

2. At that point, College Football will be indistinguishable from Semi-Pro Football. It will be NFL-Lite, which begs the question: why not just watch the NFL? College Football, as we know it, is dying/dead.

Long live College Football!

(06-19-2023 01:41 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-15-2023 11:38 AM)JRsec Wrote:  ESPN is setting up their long game and using the SEC as a proxy. If they shift North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami to the SEC all they have to do is wait.

There is no way the Big 10 elite can stand up to that lineup. Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin will eventually come knocking and the League will be born. Notre Dame and USC will take it 28. Then ESPN can pick up 4 major market adds and they are done. Washington, Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado would be the kinds of markets they would need to make the League national in every regard.

Arizona State, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Southern California, Texas, Washington

Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Virginia

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee

Now you have a mix of programs which hit the major markets and contains all of the champions of the past 25 years or so.

You have 16 games to market every Saturday in the Fall and ESPN essentially brokers those out to ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and ESPN airs the late games on ESPN and ESPN2 and airs T2 material during the day so as not to compete directly with what they broker. The could get the 4 OTA networks to bid on games each week and if both took 2 that leaves ESPN 8 more to use for themselves, or market another way or on another day.

1. That may very well be ESPN's long-term plan.

2. At that point, College Football will be indistinguishable from Semi-Pro Football. It will be NFL-Lite, which begs the question: why not just watch the NFL? College Football, as we know it, is dying/dead.

Long live College Football!

Boiling frogs.

(06-19-2023 01:41 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-15-2023 11:38 AM)JRsec Wrote:  ESPN is setting up their long game and using the SEC as a proxy. If they shift North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami to the SEC all they have to do is wait.

There is no way the Big 10 elite can stand up to that lineup. Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin will eventually come knocking and the League will be born. Notre Dame and USC will take it 28. Then ESPN can pick up 4 major market adds and they are done. Washington, Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado would be the kinds of markets they would need to make the League national in every regard.

Arizona State, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Southern California, Texas, Washington

Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Virginia

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee

Now you have a mix of programs which hit the major markets and contains all of the champions of the past 25 years or so.

You have 16 games to market every Saturday in the Fall and ESPN essentially brokers those out to ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and ESPN airs the late games on ESPN and ESPN2 and airs T2 material during the day so as not to compete directly with what they broker. The could get the 4 OTA networks to bid on games each week and if both took 2 that leaves ESPN 8 more to use for themselves, or market another way or on another day.

1. That may very well be ESPN's long-term plan.

2. At that point, College Football will be indistinguishable from Semi-Pro Football. It will be NFL-Lite, which begs the question: why not just watch the NFL? College Football, as we know it, is dying/dead.

Long live College Football!

It's not collapsing at the Top Mark. It's collapsing at the base. It began a couple of decades ago when older high school coaches who knew how to teach fundamentals retired. The winning programs in college then were those who spent all Spring teaching techniques that should have been learned in high school. The college game finally mirrored the high school game as younger coaches gave in to placing all of the fastest and most agile players on offense and trying to outscore the competition. Younger fans liked more action so rules on blocking and pass protection and interference changed to accommodate their likes. The champions then became those who actually put a solid defense on the field to match their offense. But with fewer truly elite and trained athletes coming in offenses continued to be emphasized over defense. You'll not now with the portal most of those transferring, not all, but most are offensive skill position players who are seeking recognition with playing time to up their draft status.

College football is consolidating because the level of play has actually been declining amid those high scores.

What you see isn't killing college football. It's actually trying to preserve it, just in proportionate size to the current levels of elite players.

This is why I fully expect to see a pay for play level, an amateur level of some kind with some kind of payment for student work hours for practice and game time, and likely a level in between which is also professional but doesn't pay as much. In other words 1A, 2A, and 3A leagues from which the NFL will continue to seek replenishment.

(06-19-2023 06:13 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-19-2023 01:41 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-15-2023 11:38 AM)JRsec Wrote:  ESPN is setting up their long game and using the SEC as a proxy. If they shift North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami to the SEC all they have to do is wait.

There is no way the Big 10 elite can stand up to that lineup. Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin will eventually come knocking and the League will be born. Notre Dame and USC will take it 28. Then ESPN can pick up 4 major market adds and they are done. Washington, Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado would be the kinds of markets they would need to make the League national in every regard.

Arizona State, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Southern California, Texas, Washington

Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Virginia

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee

Now you have a mix of programs which hit the major markets and contains all of the champions of the past 25 years or so.

You have 16 games to market every Saturday in the Fall and ESPN essentially brokers those out to ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and ESPN airs the late games on ESPN and ESPN2 and airs T2 material during the day so as not to compete directly with what they broker. The could get the 4 OTA networks to bid on games each week and if both took 2 that leaves ESPN 8 more to use for themselves, or market another way or on another day.

1. That may very well be ESPN's long-term plan.

2. At that point, College Football will be indistinguishable from Semi-Pro Football. It will be NFL-Lite, which begs the question: why not just watch the NFL? College Football, as we know it, is dying/dead.

Long live College Football!

It's not collapsing at the Top Mark. It's collapsing at the base. It began a couple of decades ago when older high school coaches who knew how to teach fundamentals retired. The winning programs in college then were those who spent all Spring teaching techniques that should have been learned in high school. The college game finally mirrored the high school game as younger coaches gave in to placing all of the fastest and most agile players on offense and trying to outscore the competition. Younger fans liked more action so rules on blocking and pass protection and interference changed to accommodate their likes. The champions then became those who actually put a solid defense on the field to match their offense. But with fewer truly elite and trained athletes coming in offenses continued to be emphasized over defense. You'll not now with the portal most of those transferring, not all, but most are offensive skill position players who are seeking recognition with playing time to up their draft status.

College football is consolidating because the level of play has actually been declining amid those high scores.

What you see isn't killing college football. It's actually trying to preserve it, just in proportionate size to the current levels of elite players.

This is why I fully expect to see a pay for play level, an amateur level of some kind with some kind of payment for student work hours for practice and game time, and likely a level in between which is also professional but doesn't pay as much. In other words 1A, 2A, and 3A leagues from which the NFL will continue to seek replenishment.

it's unfortunate that the game will change to accommodate the players. We'll start to see more 7 on 7 type games and the evolution of "flag football" which will eventually become a varsity sport as mothers continue to keep their children from playing football.

What you have said about the game is true, but the current game can not survive if it is not played competitively on a national basis.

(06-19-2023 07:42 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-19-2023 06:13 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-19-2023 01:41 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-15-2023 11:38 AM)JRsec Wrote:  ESPN is setting up their long game and using the SEC as a proxy. If they shift North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami to the SEC all they have to do is wait.

There is no way the Big 10 elite can stand up to that lineup. Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin will eventually come knocking and the League will be born. Notre Dame and USC will take it 28. Then ESPN can pick up 4 major market adds and they are done. Washington, Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado would be the kinds of markets they would need to make the League national in every regard.

Arizona State, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Southern California, Texas, Washington

Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Virginia

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee

Now you have a mix of programs which hit the major markets and contains all of the champions of the past 25 years or so.

You have 16 games to market every Saturday in the Fall and ESPN essentially brokers those out to ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and ESPN airs the late games on ESPN and ESPN2 and airs T2 material during the day so as not to compete directly with what they broker. The could get the 4 OTA networks to bid on games each week and if both took 2 that leaves ESPN 8 more to use for themselves, or market another way or on another day.

1. That may very well be ESPN's long-term plan.

2. At that point, College Football will be indistinguishable from Semi-Pro Football. It will be NFL-Lite, which begs the question: why not just watch the NFL? College Football, as we know it, is dying/dead.

Long live College Football!

It's not collapsing at the Top Mark. It's collapsing at the base. It began a couple of decades ago when older high school coaches who knew how to teach fundamentals retired. The winning programs in college then were those who spent all Spring teaching techniques that should have been learned in high school. The college game finally mirrored the high school game as younger coaches gave in to placing all of the fastest and most agile players on offense and trying to outscore the competition. Younger fans liked more action so rules on blocking and pass protection and interference changed to accommodate their likes. The champions then became those who actually put a solid defense on the field to match their offense. But with fewer truly elite and trained athletes coming in offenses continued to be emphasized over defense. You'll not now with the portal most of those transferring, not all, but most are offensive skill position players who are seeking recognition with playing time to up their draft status.

College football is consolidating because the level of play has actually been declining amid those high scores.

What you see isn't killing college football. It's actually trying to preserve it, just in proportionate size to the current levels of elite players.

This is why I fully expect to see a pay for play level, an amateur level of some kind with some kind of payment for student work hours for practice and game time, and likely a level in between which is also professional but doesn't pay as much. In other words 1A, 2A, and 3A leagues from which the NFL will continue to seek replenishment.

it's unfortunate that the game will change to accommodate the players. We'll start to see more 7 on 7 type games and the evolution of "flag football" which will eventually become a varsity sport as mothers continue to keep their children from playing football.

What you have said about the game is true, but the current game can not survive if it is not played competitively on a national basis.

It will be national, just national in a select way. That's what ESPN and FOX are borrowing from the NFL. Some will be in because they bring a market, but most because they have historical value and are annually competitive.

(06-19-2023 07:46 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-19-2023 07:42 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-19-2023 06:13 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-19-2023 01:41 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-15-2023 11:38 AM)JRsec Wrote:  ESPN is setting up their long game and using the SEC as a proxy. If they shift North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami to the SEC all they have to do is wait.

There is no way the Big 10 elite can stand up to that lineup. Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin will eventually come knocking and the League will be born. Notre Dame and USC will take it 28. Then ESPN can pick up 4 major market adds and they are done. Washington, Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado would be the kinds of markets they would need to make the League national in every regard.

Arizona State, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Southern California, Texas, Washington

Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Virginia

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee

Now you have a mix of programs which hit the major markets and contains all of the champions of the past 25 years or so.

You have 16 games to market every Saturday in the Fall and ESPN essentially brokers those out to ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and ESPN airs the late games on ESPN and ESPN2 and airs T2 material during the day so as not to compete directly with what they broker. The could get the 4 OTA networks to bid on games each week and if both took 2 that leaves ESPN 8 more to use for themselves, or market another way or on another day.

1. That may very well be ESPN's long-term plan.

2. At that point, College Football will be indistinguishable from Semi-Pro Football. It will be NFL-Lite, which begs the question: why not just watch the NFL? College Football, as we know it, is dying/dead.

Long live College Football!

It's not collapsing at the Top Mark. It's collapsing at the base. It began a couple of decades ago when older high school coaches who knew how to teach fundamentals retired. The winning programs in college then were those who spent all Spring teaching techniques that should have been learned in high school. The college game finally mirrored the high school game as younger coaches gave in to placing all of the fastest and most agile players on offense and trying to outscore the competition. Younger fans liked more action so rules on blocking and pass protection and interference changed to accommodate their likes. The champions then became those who actually put a solid defense on the field to match their offense. But with fewer truly elite and trained athletes coming in offenses continued to be emphasized over defense. You'll not now with the portal most of those transferring, not all, but most are offensive skill position players who are seeking recognition with playing time to up their draft status.

College football is consolidating because the level of play has actually been declining amid those high scores.

What you see isn't killing college football. It's actually trying to preserve it, just in proportionate size to the current levels of elite players.

This is why I fully expect to see a pay for play level, an amateur level of some kind with some kind of payment for student work hours for practice and game time, and likely a level in between which is also professional but doesn't pay as much. In other words 1A, 2A, and 3A leagues from which the NFL will continue to seek replenishment.

it's unfortunate that the game will change to accommodate the players. We'll start to see more 7 on 7 type games and the evolution of "flag football" which will eventually become a varsity sport as mothers continue to keep their children from playing football.

What you have said about the game is true, but the current game can not survive if it is not played competitively on a national basis.

It will be national, just national in a select way. That's what ESPN and FOX are borrowing from the NFL. Some will be in because they bring a market, but most because they have historical value and are annually competitive.

Agreed.
It will become like college baseball, but the consolidation and collapse will happen at a much more accelerated rate (than baseball) because the pool of players will shrink at a more rapid rate.

(06-19-2023 06:13 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-19-2023 01:41 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-15-2023 11:38 AM)JRsec Wrote:  ESPN is setting up their long game and using the SEC as a proxy. If they shift North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami to the SEC all they have to do is wait.

There is no way the Big 10 elite can stand up to that lineup. Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin will eventually come knocking and the League will be born. Notre Dame and USC will take it 28. Then ESPN can pick up 4 major market adds and they are done. Washington, Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado would be the kinds of markets they would need to make the League national in every regard.

Arizona State, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Southern California, Texas, Washington

Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Virginia

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee

Now you have a mix of programs which hit the major markets and contains all of the champions of the past 25 years or so.

You have 16 games to market every Saturday in the Fall and ESPN essentially brokers those out to ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and ESPN airs the late games on ESPN and ESPN2 and airs T2 material during the day so as not to compete directly with what they broker. The could get the 4 OTA networks to bid on games each week and if both took 2 that leaves ESPN 8 more to use for themselves, or market another way or on another day.

1. That may very well be ESPN's long-term plan.

2. At that point, College Football will be indistinguishable from Semi-Pro Football. It will be NFL-Lite, which begs the question: why not just watch the NFL? College Football, as we know it, is dying/dead.

Long live College Football!

It's not collapsing at the Top Mark. It's collapsing at the base. It began a couple of decades ago when older high school coaches who knew how to teach fundamentals retired. The winning programs in college then were those who spent all Spring teaching techniques that should have been learned in high school. The college game finally mirrored the high school game as younger coaches gave in to placing all of the fastest and most agile players on offense and trying to outscore the competition. Younger fans liked more action so rules on blocking and pass protection and interference changed to accommodate their likes. The champions then became those who actually put a solid defense on the field to match their offense. But with fewer truly elite and trained athletes coming in offenses continued to be emphasized over defense. You'll not now with the portal most of those transferring, not all, but most are offensive skill position players who are seeking recognition with playing time to up their draft status.

College football is consolidating because the level of play has actually been declining amid those high scores.

What you see isn't killing college football. It's actually trying to preserve it, just in proportionate size to the current levels of elite players.

This is why I fully expect to see a pay for play level, an amateur level of some kind with some kind of payment for student work hours for practice and game time, and likely a level in between which is also professional but doesn't pay as much. In other words 1A, 2A, and 3A leagues from which the NFL will continue to seek replenishment.

As to your list of the 32 teams, I would only suggest one tweak. I would have picked Wisconsin instead of Iowa. The Badgers' performance has been much better on the field and their state's population is almost twice Iowa's.

And, I'm not convinced that, if this were to become a professional league excluding all the other FBS schools, that Notre Dame would opt to play in it. I assume the 36 excluded schools who currently play in P5 conferences would continue to play football, and they would play for what would be considered a national championship of some sort. That might be enough for the Irish.

(06-20-2023 12:29 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-19-2023 06:13 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-19-2023 01:41 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-15-2023 11:38 AM)JRsec Wrote:  ESPN is setting up their long game and using the SEC as a proxy. If they shift North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami to the SEC all they have to do is wait.

There is no way the Big 10 elite can stand up to that lineup. Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin will eventually come knocking and the League will be born. Notre Dame and USC will take it 28. Then ESPN can pick up 4 major market adds and they are done. Washington, Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado would be the kinds of markets they would need to make the League national in every regard.

Arizona State, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Southern California, Texas, Washington

Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Virginia

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee

Now you have a mix of programs which hit the major markets and contains all of the champions of the past 25 years or so.

You have 16 games to market every Saturday in the Fall and ESPN essentially brokers those out to ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and ESPN airs the late games on ESPN and ESPN2 and airs T2 material during the day so as not to compete directly with what they broker. The could get the 4 OTA networks to bid on games each week and if both took 2 that leaves ESPN 8 more to use for themselves, or market another way or on another day.

1. That may very well be ESPN's long-term plan.

2. At that point, College Football will be indistinguishable from Semi-Pro Football. It will be NFL-Lite, which begs the question: why not just watch the NFL? College Football, as we know it, is dying/dead.

Long live College Football!

It's not collapsing at the Top Mark. It's collapsing at the base. It began a couple of decades ago when older high school coaches who knew how to teach fundamentals retired. The winning programs in college then were those who spent all Spring teaching techniques that should have been learned in high school. The college game finally mirrored the high school game as younger coaches gave in to placing all of the fastest and most agile players on offense and trying to outscore the competition. Younger fans liked more action so rules on blocking and pass protection and interference changed to accommodate their likes. The champions then became those who actually put a solid defense on the field to match their offense. But with fewer truly elite and trained athletes coming in offenses continued to be emphasized over defense. You'll not now with the portal most of those transferring, not all, but most are offensive skill position players who are seeking recognition with playing time to up their draft status.

College football is consolidating because the level of play has actually been declining amid those high scores.

What you see isn't killing college football. It's actually trying to preserve it, just in proportionate size to the current levels of elite players.

This is why I fully expect to see a pay for play level, an amateur level of some kind with some kind of payment for student work hours for practice and game time, and likely a level in between which is also professional but doesn't pay as much. In other words 1A, 2A, and 3A leagues from which the NFL will continue to seek replenishment.

As to your list of the 32 teams, I would only suggest one tweak. I would have picked Wisconsin instead of Iowa. The Badgers' performance has been much better on the field and their state's population is almost twice Iowa's.

And, I'm not convinced that, if this were to become a professional league excluding all the other FBS schools, that Notre Dame would opt to play in it. I assume the 36 excluded schools who currently play in P5 conferences would continue to play football, and they would play for what would be considered a national championship of some sort. That might be enough for the Irish.

Wisconsin may well be a better replacement for Iowa and your suggestion of a different tier with a championship of their own is viable with or without the Irish.

(06-20-2023 01:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-20-2023 12:29 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-19-2023 06:13 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-19-2023 01:41 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(06-15-2023 11:38 AM)JRsec Wrote:  ESPN is setting up their long game and using the SEC as a proxy. If they shift North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami to the SEC all they have to do is wait.

There is no way the Big 10 elite can stand up to that lineup. Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin will eventually come knocking and the League will be born. Notre Dame and USC will take it 28. Then ESPN can pick up 4 major market adds and they are done. Washington, Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado would be the kinds of markets they would need to make the League national in every regard.

Arizona State, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Southern California, Texas, Washington

Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Virginia

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee

Now you have a mix of programs which hit the major markets and contains all of the champions of the past 25 years or so.

You have 16 games to market every Saturday in the Fall and ESPN essentially brokers those out to ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and ESPN airs the late games on ESPN and ESPN2 and airs T2 material during the day so as not to compete directly with what they broker. The could get the 4 OTA networks to bid on games each week and if both took 2 that leaves ESPN 8 more to use for themselves, or market another way or on another day.

1. That may very well be ESPN's long-term plan.

2. At that point, College Football will be indistinguishable from Semi-Pro Football. It will be NFL-Lite, which begs the question: why not just watch the NFL? College Football, as we know it, is dying/dead.

Long live College Football!

It's not collapsing at the Top Mark. It's collapsing at the base. It began a couple of decades ago when older high school coaches who knew how to teach fundamentals retired. The winning programs in college then were those who spent all Spring teaching techniques that should have been learned in high school. The college game finally mirrored the high school game as younger coaches gave in to placing all of the fastest and most agile players on offense and trying to outscore the competition. Younger fans liked more action so rules on blocking and pass protection and interference changed to accommodate their likes. The champions then became those who actually put a solid defense on the field to match their offense. But with fewer truly elite and trained athletes coming in offenses continued to be emphasized over defense. You'll not now with the portal most of those transferring, not all, but most are offensive skill position players who are seeking recognition with playing time to up their draft status.

College football is consolidating because the level of play has actually been declining amid those high scores.

What you see isn't killing college football. It's actually trying to preserve it, just in proportionate size to the current levels of elite players.

This is why I fully expect to see a pay for play level, an amateur level of some kind with some kind of payment for student work hours for practice and game time, and likely a level in between which is also professional but doesn't pay as much. In other words 1A, 2A, and 3A leagues from which the NFL will continue to seek replenishment.

As to your list of the 32 teams, I would only suggest one tweak. I would have picked Wisconsin instead of Iowa. The Badgers' performance has been much better on the field and their state's population is almost twice Iowa's.

And, I'm not convinced that, if this were to become a professional league excluding all the other FBS schools, that Notre Dame would opt to play in it. I assume the 36 excluded schools who currently play in P5 conferences would continue to play football, and they would play for what would be considered a national championship of some sort. That might be enough for the Irish.

Wisconsin may well be a better replacement for Iowa and your suggestion of a different tier with a championship of their own is viable with or without the Irish.

What your top tier does is leave four viable power conferences (relative to the G5), with the benefit of not really having any truly dominant teams. That championship would be wide open and competitive, and those schools have enough fans to keep it commercially viable.

It would never draw the big bucks, but if all the schools in that tier have similar resources it doesn't matter that they have less than the super league. They all did fine before the goose started laying golden eggs, and they will be fine again, and so will their fans.

What that super conference would leave behind are four viable conferences that are still far ahead of the G5 in both on field strength and market value. They would be, with teams listed in order of their 10 year Sagarin Median Strength Rating (MSR):

Big Ten (average MSR 71)
Michigan St, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, Illinois, Rutgers

ACC (average MSR 73)
Louisville, Pitt, Virginia Tech, NC State, Georgia Tech, Duke, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College

PAC (average MSR 74)
Utah, Stanford, UCLA, Washington St, Arizona, Cal, San Diego St, Oregon St, Fresno St

Big 12 (average MSR 75)
Oklahoma State, TCU, Kansas St, Baylor, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Iowa St, UCF, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas

***************************************************************

I added SDSU and Fresno St to get the PAC to nine members for an 8 game conference round robin. No other changes are suggested for the rest of the P4, though that doesn't mean they wouldn't realign in the future.

By contrast, the MSR for the Super League would be 81 and the highest rated G5 conference (the MWC) would be 63.

***************************************************************

For any of this to happen soon, the S1 (which is basically an expanded SEC) would probably have to give a disproportionate share of future CFP revenues to the P4 to compensate them for exit fees and GoR releases. How disproportionate that would have to be to prevent multiple very expensive and divisive lawsuits is a matter for negotiation. But if this is inevitable, why wait until later to make it happen?

My problem with all this is the "if this could happen soon" part. Without that caveat, I have a very hard time seeing a path to that final outcome, namely a single Super SEC of 32 teams. It leaves too many schools severely damaged to the point where litigation would be inevitable and prolonged.

That isn't to say the SEC won't expand, and even try to attract all the top football programs under its roof. I just don't see the Big Ten capitulating and ceding its best programs to the SEC.

(06-22-2023 08:07 AM)ken d Wrote:  My problem with all this is the "if this could happen soon" part. Without that caveat, I have a very hard time seeing a path to that final outcome, namely a single Super SEC of 32 teams. It leaves too many schools severely damaged to the point where litigation would be inevitable and prolonged.

That isn't to say the SEC won't expand, and even try to attract all the top football programs under its roof. I just don't see the Big Ten capitulating and ceding its best programs to the SEC.

There would be no litigation Ken. Once you are at a new contract period literally anything can happen, and legally. Forcing constraint is what is not legal. Forcing constraint is what the Supreme Court ruled against in 1983. Forcing constraint is what the Alston case was about. And forcing constraint is what the pending Johnson case is about. If Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State or anyone else determines that being part of the something else is in their best interest that is what will happen.

USC and UCLA left. Texas and Oklahoma left. There is a trend here with a definite pattern and reasoning. And there has been no litigation. Why? Because teams of lawyers have looked at administrators and told them you will lose. Do you want to throw good money after bad?

(06-22-2023 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 08:07 AM)ken d Wrote:  My problem with all this is the "if this could happen soon" part. Without that caveat, I have a very hard time seeing a path to that final outcome, namely a single Super SEC of 32 teams. It leaves too many schools severely damaged to the point where litigation would be inevitable and prolonged.

That isn't to say the SEC won't expand, and even try to attract all the top football programs under its roof. I just don't see the Big Ten capitulating and ceding its best programs to the SEC.

There would be no litigation Ken. Once you are at a new contract period literally anything can happen, and legally. Forcing constraint is what is not legal. Forcing constraint is what the Supreme Court ruled against in 1983. Forcing constraint is what the Alston case was about. And forcing constraint is what the pending Johnson case is about. If Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State or anyone else determines that being part of the something else is in their best interest that is what will happen.

USC and UCLA left. Texas and Oklahoma left. There is a trend here with a definite pattern and reasoning. And there has been no litigation. Why? Because teams of lawyers have looked at administrators and told them you will lose. Do you want to throw good money after bad?

You say "Once you are at a new contract period literally anything can happen, and legally." I agree with that. But that isn't what I would call "soon". Soon to me is the next two or three years. Soon is before all those contracts expire. When will the new Big Ten contract expire? The 32 team SEC super conference leaves ten B1G schools (including UCLA) behind. They aren't going quietly or cheaply.

(06-22-2023 12:48 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 08:07 AM)ken d Wrote:  My problem with all this is the "if this could happen soon" part. Without that caveat, I have a very hard time seeing a path to that final outcome, namely a single Super SEC of 32 teams. It leaves too many schools severely damaged to the point where litigation would be inevitable and prolonged.

That isn't to say the SEC won't expand, and even try to attract all the top football programs under its roof. I just don't see the Big Ten capitulating and ceding its best programs to the SEC.

There would be no litigation Ken. Once you are at a new contract period literally anything can happen, and legally. Forcing constraint is what is not legal. Forcing constraint is what the Supreme Court ruled against in 1983. Forcing constraint is what the Alston case was about. And forcing constraint is what the pending Johnson case is about. If Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State or anyone else determines that being part of the something else is in their best interest that is what will happen.

USC and UCLA left. Texas and Oklahoma left. There is a trend here with a definite pattern and reasoning. And there has been no litigation. Why? Because teams of lawyers have looked at administrators and told them you will lose. Do you want to throw good money after bad?

You say "Once you are at a new contract period literally anything can happen, and legally." I agree with that. But that isn't what I would call "soon". Soon to me is the next two or three years. Soon is before all those contracts expire. When will the new Big Ten contract expire? The 32 team SEC super conference leaves ten B1G schools (including UCLA) behind. They aren't going quietly or cheaply.

2030. The only contract in question that matters is the ACC's. Can you or can't you dissolve, and would ESPN cover those left behind for the duration of the contract at the contracted rate? No damage financially, no damages. Exit fees? Yes. Damages? No. The Herculean part of that is not some schools moving, and not exit fees. The tough part is working it so that ESPN covers those left behind for the duration. That would mean that the departing schools still needed to be able to honor their contract with ESPN. That would indicate the SEC and it would likely mean that the negotiated part would be incremental increases which bring those schools up to the SEC contracted rates. Nothing is impossible, just improbable, unless consensus is reached.

Access and no loss of revenue for the contracted period. No sudden cash layout for ESPN, Exit fees paid in full, and the SEC being convinced that profitability would be there beyond the contracted period of time for each school taken.

If we are talking 2 to 4 it's likely the profitability remains beyond the contracted period of the SEC. It's also likely that ESPN could backfill from the PAC 12 and sculpt a product worthy of the current payouts. And it is likely then that the new ACC would be a healthier option for a P3 than the Big 12, which should help it further grow with brands like T.C.U., Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State, schools who have a higher valuation than the 6th best school in the current ACC.

Then you wait and see what happens in 2030. If the Big 10 upper tier jumps the rest can roll in with the ACC. Then you have the two tiers you were speaking of earlier.

The true downside is for the ACC to wait until 2032-4 to start rethinking its position, because at that point you won't have one. You become the PAC 12 all over again. That's when FSU jumps, when UNC rethinks their future in terms of nothing but Woad Blue, when Miami gains traction as a market for someone besides the SEC, and if still viable Clemson is taken. Beyond that nada. The Big 10 if it survives and the SEC will be looking at diminishing returns if a super league has not been formed and will have no incentive to add.

The worst possible future for anyone not in the 16 member Big 10 and SEC will be to get to 2036 without having moved. Whatever the number of schools in the Big 10 and SEC by 2036 will be their number moving forward. The financial impetus for further consolidation will have expired. And between now and then for any school who does decide to move there will be a $440 million dollar upside and as much security as any school will have beyond 2036.

(06-22-2023 12:48 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 08:07 AM)ken d Wrote:  My problem with all this is the "if this could happen soon" part. Without that caveat, I have a very hard time seeing a path to that final outcome, namely a single Super SEC of 32 teams. It leaves too many schools severely damaged to the point where litigation would be inevitable and prolonged.

That isn't to say the SEC won't expand, and even try to attract all the top football programs under its roof. I just don't see the Big Ten capitulating and ceding its best programs to the SEC.

There would be no litigation Ken. Once you are at a new contract period literally anything can happen, and legally. Forcing constraint is what is not legal. Forcing constraint is what the Supreme Court ruled against in 1983. Forcing constraint is what the Alston case was about. And forcing constraint is what the pending Johnson case is about. If Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State or anyone else determines that being part of the something else is in their best interest that is what will happen.

USC and UCLA left. Texas and Oklahoma left. There is a trend here with a definite pattern and reasoning. And there has been no litigation. Why? Because teams of lawyers have looked at administrators and told them you will lose. Do you want to throw good money after bad?

You say "Once you are at a new contract period literally anything can happen, and legally." I agree with that. But that isn't what I would call "soon". Soon to me is the next two or three years. Soon is before all those contracts expire. When will the new Big Ten contract expire? The 32 team SEC super conference leaves ten B1G schools (including UCLA) behind. They aren't going quietly or cheaply.

There's also 0 chance that the top tier Big Ten schools, who are the exact ones that empowered Delaney to tell ESPN to pound sand and just aligned on an NFL style deal, then jump into a conference that's basically ESPN's puppet in this scenario in order to make essentially the same money in a super conference they'll never have a chance at winning? Let's be real, they'll take their once a decade national title and inflated regular season records and ride that until they gravy train ends.

(06-22-2023 04:35 PM)BeepBeepJeep Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 12:48 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 08:07 AM)ken d Wrote:  My problem with all this is the "if this could happen soon" part. Without that caveat, I have a very hard time seeing a path to that final outcome, namely a single Super SEC of 32 teams. It leaves too many schools severely damaged to the point where litigation would be inevitable and prolonged.

That isn't to say the SEC won't expand, and even try to attract all the top football programs under its roof. I just don't see the Big Ten capitulating and ceding its best programs to the SEC.

There would be no litigation Ken. Once you are at a new contract period literally anything can happen, and legally. Forcing constraint is what is not legal. Forcing constraint is what the Supreme Court ruled against in 1983. Forcing constraint is what the Alston case was about. And forcing constraint is what the pending Johnson case is about. If Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State or anyone else determines that being part of the something else is in their best interest that is what will happen.

USC and UCLA left. Texas and Oklahoma left. There is a trend here with a definite pattern and reasoning. And there has been no litigation. Why? Because teams of lawyers have looked at administrators and told them you will lose. Do you want to throw good money after bad?

You say "Once you are at a new contract period literally anything can happen, and legally." I agree with that. But that isn't what I would call "soon". Soon to me is the next two or three years. Soon is before all those contracts expire. When will the new Big Ten contract expire? The 32 team SEC super conference leaves ten B1G schools (including UCLA) behind. They aren't going quietly or cheaply.

There's also 0 chance that the top tier Big Ten schools, who are the exact ones that empowered Delaney to tell ESPN to pound sand and just aligned on an NFL style deal, then jump into a conference that's basically ESPN's puppet in this scenario in order to make essentially the same money in a super conference they'll never have a chance at winning? Let's be real, they'll take their once a decade national title and inflated regular season records and ride that until they gravy train ends.

And yet there have been talks between the SEC and some of those schools. There are some rather large stadia that need filling in a few Big 10 locations.

(06-22-2023 01:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 12:48 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 10:51 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-22-2023 08:07 AM)ken d Wrote:  My problem with all this is the "if this could happen soon" part. Without that caveat, I have a very hard time seeing a path to that final outcome, namely a single Super SEC of 32 teams. It leaves too many schools severely damaged to the point where litigation would be inevitable and prolonged.

That isn't to say the SEC won't expand, and even try to attract all the top football programs under its roof. I just don't see the Big Ten capitulating and ceding its best programs to the SEC.

There would be no litigation Ken. Once you are at a new contract period literally anything can happen, and legally. Forcing constraint is what is not legal. Forcing constraint is what the Supreme Court ruled against in 1983. Forcing constraint is what the Alston case was about. And forcing constraint is what the pending Johnson case is about. If Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State or anyone else determines that being part of the something else is in their best interest that is what will happen.

USC and UCLA left. Texas and Oklahoma left. There is a trend here with a definite pattern and reasoning. And there has been no litigation. Why? Because teams of lawyers have looked at administrators and told them you will lose. Do you want to throw good money after bad?

You say "Once you are at a new contract period literally anything can happen, and legally." I agree with that. But that isn't what I would call "soon". Soon to me is the next two or three years. Soon is before all those contracts expire. When will the new Big Ten contract expire? The 32 team SEC super conference leaves ten B1G schools (including UCLA) behind. They aren't going quietly or cheaply.

2030. The only contract in question that matters is the ACC's. Can you or can't you dissolve, and would ESPN cover those left behind for the duration of the contract at the contracted rate? No damage financially, no damages. Exit fees? Yes. Damages? No. The Herculean part of that is not some schools moving, and not exit fees. The tough part is working it so that ESPN covers those left behind for the duration. That would mean that the departing schools still needed to be able to honor their contract with ESPN. That would indicate the SEC and it would likely mean that the negotiated part would be incremental increases which bring those schools up to the SEC contracted rates. Nothing is impossible, just improbable, unless consensus is reached.

Access and no loss of revenue for the contracted period. No sudden cash layout for ESPN, Exit fees paid in full, and the SEC being convinced that profitability would be there beyond the contracted period of time for each school taken.

If we are talking 2 to 4 it's likely the profitability remains beyond the contracted period of the SEC. It's also likely that ESPN could backfill from the PAC 12 and sculpt a product worthy of the current payouts. And it is likely then that the new ACC would be a healthier option for a P3 than the Big 12, which should help it further grow with brands like T.C.U., Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State, schools who have a higher valuation than the 6th best school in the current ACC.

Then you wait and see what happens in 2030. If the Big 10 upper tier jumps the rest can roll in with the ACC. Then you have the two tiers you were speaking of earlier.

The true downside is for the ACC to wait until 2032-4 to start rethinking its position, because at that point you won't have one. You become the PAC 12 all over again. That's when FSU jumps, when UNC rethinks their future in terms of nothing but Woad Blue, when Miami gains traction as a market for someone besides the SEC, and if still viable Clemson is taken. Beyond that nada. The Big 10 if it survives and the SEC will be looking at diminishing returns if a super league has not been formed and will have no incentive to add.

The worst possible future for anyone not in the 16 member Big 10 and SEC will be to get to 2036 without having moved. Whatever the number of schools in the Big 10 and SEC by 2036 will be their number moving forward. The financial impetus for further consolidation will have expired. And between now and then for any school who does decide to move there will be a $440 million dollar upside and as much security as any school will have beyond 2036.

The "damages" to some of the left behinds come in the form of "lack of association".
Take Wake Forest as an example. They have been successful at the gate knowing they had Clemson/Florida State/NC State in rotation at home every year and increased play with Carolina.
Taking match-ups with Florida State, Clemson, Miami and Carolina off of any future schedules with the Deacs would create a measurable deficit before 2036, for which they will sue. ESPN might be able to make the media rights the same through 2036, but to say there are no damages is