PAC 12 revenue payouts for 2022 were 37 million.

ACC revenue payouts for 2022 were 37.9 million plus bowl and playoff money and tourney creds.

The SEC payouts were 49.9 but will jump closer to 75 by 2024.

What are the Options?

ESPN could move 4 ACC schools to the SEC and create a 20 team conference.

Let's assume that the schools most anxious to make more are Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina. Or that they are Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia.

In either case the ACC is reduced to 10 full member schools and Notre Dame as a partial.

Notre Dame requires games in Georgia, Florida, and might like them in Louisiana and Texas.

ESPN knows it needs late night games and preferably games with decent content.

ESPN could create two 20 team conferences, dominate content, elevate payouts for the ACCN in which they split profits, which means it's not a cash outlay, and they could nearly double the reach of the ACCN if they picked up the 10 PAC 12 schools and merged them with the ACC.

ACC:

California, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State

Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Stanford, Utah

Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, Wake Forest

Use the escalator clause for the ACC contract and establish 38 million as the payout for all. Since FOX pays half of the PAC 12 contract now, the total cost to ESPN would be 190 million for the PAC move. For the 4 ACC schools moving to the SEC the total cost would be 37 million each or 154 million.

The SEC:

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State

Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Clemson, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia

ESPN creates two 20 member Power Conferences which suck the oxygen out of further realignment.

The Big 12 expands from the Moutain West and AAC to create the 4th Conference.

The Big 10 and FOX have no place to go and stay at 16.

The ACC increases its total revenue by adding the in state subscription rate for the ACCN to Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon, Utah, and Washington. They only lose South Carolina's 5 million from the footprint in this move.

They essentially get the PAC 12 for what their full rate is now. They increase inventory which reduces cost, they make interest in the ACC national which reduces cost via advertising, and the ACC and PAC share an academic standing which is strong but not exclusive like the Big 10's.

ESPN for what likely would wind up being a total cash outlay of 150 million after the value of added inventory, enhanced markets, and in the SEC enhanced content vs content games are subtracted, and the added market reach of each subscription network (ACCN & SECN) are subtracted would be the cheapest dominance ESPN could possibly buy.

They would control 40 schools plus 1 and half of the Big 12 when it came time for votes on the postseason and the possible new hoops tourney. And considering their haul of the expanded playoff would be around 750 million a year 150 million for control, the highest volume of content, and tremendous reach and branding would seem to be a no brainer.

The split East and West Coast divisions provide plenty of local play for non revenue sports and revenue sports and cuts the number of cross country games way down.

The SEC dominates the SE for football and the ACC dominates for basketball and the two compliment each other quite well.

Should ESPN pick up Notre Dame's T1 there are ample games for the Irish to play out West, in the Deep South and at home with interesting schedules to stimulate attendance and donations.

I see a lot of potential in this.

It is one way ESPN could essentially end realignment for the foreseeable future.

(06-12-2023 01:53 AM)JRsec Wrote:  PAC 12 revenue payouts for 2022 were 37 million.

ACC revenue payouts for 2022 were 37.9 million plus bowl and playoff money and tourney creds.

The SEC payouts were 49.9 but will jump closer to 75 by 2024.

What are the Options?

ESPN could move 4 ACC schools to the SEC and create a 20 team conference.

Let's assume that the schools most anxious to make more are Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina. Or that they are Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia.

In either case the ACC is reduced to 10 full member schools and Notre Dame as a partial.

Notre Dame requires games in Georgia, Florida, and might like them in Louisiana and Texas.

ESPN knows it needs late night games and preferably games with decent content.

ESPN could create two 20 team conferences, dominate content, elevate payouts for the ACCN in which they split profits, which means it's not a cash outlay, and they could nearly double the reach of the ACCN if they picked up the 10 PAC 12 schools and merged them with the ACC.

ACC:

California, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State

Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Stanford, Utah

Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, Wake Forest

Use the escalator clause for the ACC contract and establish 38 million as the payout for all. Since FOX pays half of the PAC 12 contract now, the total cost to ESPN would be 190 million for the PAC move. For the 4 ACC schools moving to the SEC the total cost would be 37 million each or 154 million.

The SEC:

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State

Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Clemson, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia

ESPN creates two 20 member Power Conferences which suck the oxygen out of further realignment.

The Big 12 expands from the Moutain West and AAC to create the 4th Conference.

The Big 10 and FOX have no place to go and stay at 16.

The ACC increases its total revenue by adding the in state subscription rate for the ACCN to Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon, Utah, and Washington. They only lose South Carolina's 5 million from the footprint in this move.

They essentially get the PAC 12 for what their full rate is now. They increase inventory which reduces cost, they make interest in the ACC national which reduces cost via advertising, and the ACC and PAC share an academic standing which is strong but not exclusive like the Big 10's.

ESPN for what likely would wind up being a total cash outlay of 150 million after the value of added inventory, enhanced markets, and in the SEC enhanced content vs content games are subtracted, and the added market reach of each subscription network (ACCN & SECN) are subtracted would be the cheapest dominance ESPN could possibly buy.

They would control 40 schools plus 1 and half of the Big 12 when it came time for votes on the postseason and the possible new hoops tourney. And considering their haul of the expanded playoff would be around 750 million a year 150 million for control, the highest volume of content, and tremendous reach and branding would seem to be a no brainer.

The split East and West Coast divisions provide plenty of local play for non revenue sports and revenue sports and cuts the number of cross country games way down.

The SEC dominates the SE for football and the ACC dominates for basketball and the two compliment each other quite well.

Should ESPN pick up Notre Dame's T1 there are ample games for the Irish to play out West, in the Deep South and at home with interesting schedules to stimulate attendance and donations.

I see a lot of potential in this.

It is one way ESPN could essentially end realignment for the foreseeable future.

I think Oregon and Washington wouldn't join and would do whatever it took to get into the B1G. I would move Stanford and add San Diego St. in a pod with Cal, OSU, and WSU. Then have the 4C schools with SMU (adding the state of Texas or at least DFW).

Also, I think the B1G looks at going to 20 so they probably try for ND and 1 or 2 ACC schools (depending on ND) so I think the ACC will have to add a USF to backfill unless they can get Big 12 schools to join (I would assume WVU is the top option followed by UCF).

(06-12-2023 06:28 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  

(06-12-2023 01:53 AM)JRsec Wrote:  PAC 12 revenue payouts for 2022 were 37 million.

ACC revenue payouts for 2022 were 37.9 million plus bowl and playoff money and tourney creds.

The SEC payouts were 49.9 but will jump closer to 75 by 2024.

What are the Options?

ESPN could move 4 ACC schools to the SEC and create a 20 team conference.

Let's assume that the schools most anxious to make more are Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina. Or that they are Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia.

In either case the ACC is reduced to 10 full member schools and Notre Dame as a partial.

Notre Dame requires games in Georgia, Florida, and might like them in Louisiana and Texas.

ESPN knows it needs late night games and preferably games with decent content.

ESPN could create two 20 team conferences, dominate content, elevate payouts for the ACCN in which they split profits, which means it's not a cash outlay, and they could nearly double the reach of the ACCN if they picked up the 10 PAC 12 schools and merged them with the ACC.

ACC:

California, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State

Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Stanford, Utah

Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, Wake Forest

Use the escalator clause for the ACC contract and establish 38 million as the payout for all. Since FOX pays half of the PAC 12 contract now, the total cost to ESPN would be 190 million for the PAC move. For the 4 ACC schools moving to the SEC the total cost would be 37 million each or 154 million.

The SEC:

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State

Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Clemson, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia

ESPN creates two 20 member Power Conferences which suck the oxygen out of further realignment.

The Big 12 expands from the Moutain West and AAC to create the 4th Conference.

The Big 10 and FOX have no place to go and stay at 16.

The ACC increases its total revenue by adding the in state subscription rate for the ACCN to Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon, Utah, and Washington. They only lose South Carolina's 5 million from the footprint in this move.

They essentially get the PAC 12 for what their full rate is now. They increase inventory which reduces cost, they make interest in the ACC national which reduces cost via advertising, and the ACC and PAC share an academic standing which is strong but not exclusive like the Big 10's.

ESPN for what likely would wind up being a total cash outlay of 150 million after the value of added inventory, enhanced markets, and in the SEC enhanced content vs content games are subtracted, and the added market reach of each subscription network (ACCN & SECN) are subtracted would be the cheapest dominance ESPN could possibly buy.

They would control 40 schools plus 1 and half of the Big 12 when it came time for votes on the postseason and the possible new hoops tourney. And considering their haul of the expanded playoff would be around 750 million a year 150 million for control, the highest volume of content, and tremendous reach and branding would seem to be a no brainer.

The split East and West Coast divisions provide plenty of local play for non revenue sports and revenue sports and cuts the number of cross country games way down.

The SEC dominates the SE for football and the ACC dominates for basketball and the two compliment each other quite well.

Should ESPN pick up Notre Dame's T1 there are ample games for the Irish to play out West, in the Deep South and at home with interesting schedules to stimulate attendance and donations.

I see a lot of potential in this.

It is one way ESPN could essentially end realignment for the foreseeable future.

I think Oregon and Washington wouldn't join and would do whatever it took to get into the B1G. I would move Stanford and add San Diego St. in a pod with Cal, OSU, and WSU. Then have the 4C schools with SMU (adding the state of Texas or at least DFW).

Also, I think the B1G looks at going to 20 so they probably try for ND and 1 or 2 ACC schools (depending on ND) so I think the ACC will have to add a USF to backfill unless they can get Big 12 schools to join (I would assume WVU is the top option followed by UCF).

I certainly think a planned moved to merge the PAC and ACC would light a fire under a few PAC schools to move to the Big 10, but the merger can be done without opening the ACC GOR. Therefore even if the Big 10 wanted a couple of ACC schools not named Notre Dame, I don't think they could get them for a while.

Also, when moves like that happen only the schools involved could tip off the Big Ten. They would be under NDAs and could face some liability. So negotiating would not be in their best interest. A flat offer from the Big Ten would be. It's sets up a fascinating dynamic legally. Whereas in house at ESPN, it doesn't. They are already contractually involved with the SEC, ACC and PAC 12.

It's probably not what I would have done if I were made College Football Czar, But there's no question in my mind this would be a good solution for the PAC, ACC and ESPN.

If the ACC wanted to keep an 8 game league schedule, they could easily play every team in their division plus four out of five from the other division and have the PAC do the same. Any crossover games between the two coasts could be considered OOC, and not every school need have such a game. The cross country travel would be truly minimal. An 8 game schedule gives the PAC schools a chance to play USCLA OOC with some regularity.

The ACC teams get Notre Dame every other year, and the Irish can play Stanford as well as USC every year with one of them always on Black Friday. The Irish still have Miami and Atlanta and can supplement with SEC teams and B1G teams to have a compelling national schedule.

If the SEC stays with an 8 game league schedule, UNC can still play Duke and NC State annually OOC, Virginia has VT and Duke, FSU still has Miami, Louisville has Kentucky, and Georgia Tech keeps Georgia. Each of the four SEC divisions is topped by a perennial Top 10 team.

There's a lot to like here.

We may see the ACC involved with several PAC schools, depending on Colorado and the Big 12 and if the B1G tries to move out west again. As to which PAC schools that ESPN would try to involve.....well we'll just leave that up to ESPN as long as Cal is not one of them.

JR’s model could work but I see the same flaw as GoBuckeyes and that’s the possibility that if ESPN/the ACC approached Oregon and Washington with the idea they’d find some back channel way to tip off the Big 10 and use it to leverage Big 10 invites.

Would the ACC still see value in subbing out 4 of their best brands for 6-8 PAC 10 properties? Possibly.

The other thing to consider is the fact that ESPN hasn’t shown a lot of interest in the PAC 10 as a property, aside from a willingness to pay a small sum for late night content. I see the implications this could have for the ACCN and how that could be a big net positive for the Mouse.

Essentially, with a ten team western division and a ten team eastern division, this new entity could for all practical purposes be two conferences sharing a common network and a common administration. What it wouldn't do, which these two now enjoy as separate conferences, is guarantee both of them a berth in an expanded CFP.

I would suggest that the CFP could go to 16 teams, with each of the P4 guaranteed two bids designated by the conferences, with the rest of the field selected at-large by a committee. This would probably require that CCG's be eliminated, so there would need to be a way to divide the CFP revenue in a way that ensures that the P4 conferences be made whole for giving up their exclusive tournament.

(06-13-2023 06:59 AM)ken d Wrote:  Essentially, with a ten team western division and a ten team eastern division, this new entity could for all practical purposes be two conferences sharing a common network and a common administration. What it wouldn't do, which these two now enjoy as separate conferences, is guarantee both of them a berth in an expanded CFP.

I would suggest that the CFP could go to 16 teams, with each of the P4 guaranteed two bids designated by the conferences, with the rest of the field selected at-large by a committee. This would probably require that CCG's be eliminated, so there would need to be a way to divide the CFP revenue in a way that ensures that the P4 conferences be made whole for giving up their exclusive tournament.

I don't see the CCG's going away. The SEC earns 70 million on theirs. I can see an expansion to 16 with the CFP. The expanded 12 team CFP has projected a revenue of 2.5 billion. If half of that goes to the conferences representing at most 72 schools, it will NET each university another 18 million dollars whether they play in it or not. It should NET FOX and ESPN if they split the coverage, 750 million in profits per year each.

What the expanded CFP will mean is that no conference will be having Conference Semi Finals. Each will find a way to place their two best teams against each other in the CCG and keep things as they are.

I also wanted to tell you Ken that the initial proposal of this OP isn't predicated specifically on the sets of 4 schools listed. It could be any mix of 4 ACC schools and it would work the same way. I could see Duke, UNC, UVa and FSU as easily as any of them. I don't think the SEC would want Duke per se, but if that's what it took to land UNC and since the two Virginia schools are almost a wash, I could see that as well, especially if ESPN was protecting its holdings.

(06-13-2023 11:09 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 06:59 AM)ken d Wrote:  Essentially, with a ten team western division and a ten team eastern division, this new entity could for all practical purposes be two conferences sharing a common network and a common administration. What it wouldn't do, which these two now enjoy as separate conferences, is guarantee both of them a berth in an expanded CFP.

I would suggest that the CFP could go to 16 teams, with each of the P4 guaranteed two bids designated by the conferences, with the rest of the field selected at-large by a committee. This would probably require that CCG's be eliminated, so there would need to be a way to divide the CFP revenue in a way that ensures that the P4 conferences be made whole for giving up their exclusive tournament.

I don't see the CCG's going away. The SEC earns 70 million on theirs. I can see an expansion to 16 with the CFP. The expanded 12 team CFP has projected a revenue of 2.5 billion. If half of that goes to the conferences representing at most 72 schools, it will NET each university another 18 million dollars whether they play in it or not. It should NET FOX and ESPN if they split the coverage, 750 million in profits per year each.

What the expanded CFP will mean is that no conference will be having Conference Semi Finals. Each will find a way to place their two best teams against each other in the CCG and keep things as they are.

I also wanted to tell you Ken that the initial proposal of this OP isn't predicated specifically on the sets of 4 schools listed. It could be any mix of 4 ACC schools and it would work the same way. I could see Duke, UNC, UVa and FSU as easily as any of them. I don't think the SEC would want Duke per se, but if that's what it took to land UNC and since the two Virginia schools are almost a wash, I could see that as well, especially if ESPN was protecting its holdings.

I might push back a little if the B1G and SEC proposed this idea (slightly off topic) for 2026. 8 auto-bids + 8 at-large

B1G and SEC get 2 auto bids each as P2 conferences

4 auto bids for top 4 conference champs from M3+G5

Top 4 conference champs get a double bye (probably to Rose, Cotton, Sugar, Orange Bowls)

Remaining 2 champs + B1G & SEC runners-up get a single bye (likely on campus)

Top 8 at-large participate play in 1st round on campus


This opens up conference semis to the B1G and SEC with 2 winners playing for a CFP spot and at least a single bye, additional revenue, and additional 4 at-larges

G5 champs still have a chance to qualify for CFP, maybe a 2nd champ via. at-large or weak M3 champ

M3 conferences get nearly guaranteed spot (gives the PAC some incentive to try to survive), and a chance at multiple bids, they can do conference semis, but it risks their top team(s) missing the championship

ND now has 8 at-large spots to qualify instead of 4 or 6

CCGs remain relevant for conferences and everyone makes additional money with another round of the CFP without cannibalizing games like a normal 16 team bracket would.

Seems like a win-win-win-win.

(06-13-2023 07:58 PM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 11:09 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 06:59 AM)ken d Wrote:  Essentially, with a ten team western division and a ten team eastern division, this new entity could for all practical purposes be two conferences sharing a common network and a common administration. What it wouldn't do, which these two now enjoy as separate conferences, is guarantee both of them a berth in an expanded CFP.

I would suggest that the CFP could go to 16 teams, with each of the P4 guaranteed two bids designated by the conferences, with the rest of the field selected at-large by a committee. This would probably require that CCG's be eliminated, so there would need to be a way to divide the CFP revenue in a way that ensures that the P4 conferences be made whole for giving up their exclusive tournament.

I don't see the CCG's going away. The SEC earns 70 million on theirs. I can see an expansion to 16 with the CFP. The expanded 12 team CFP has projected a revenue of 2.5 billion. If half of that goes to the conferences representing at most 72 schools, it will NET each university another 18 million dollars whether they play in it or not. It should NET FOX and ESPN if they split the coverage, 750 million in profits per year each.

What the expanded CFP will mean is that no conference will be having Conference Semi Finals. Each will find a way to place their two best teams against each other in the CCG and keep things as they are.

I also wanted to tell you Ken that the initial proposal of this OP isn't predicated specifically on the sets of 4 schools listed. It could be any mix of 4 ACC schools and it would work the same way. I could see Duke, UNC, UVa and FSU as easily as any of them. I don't think the SEC would want Duke per se, but if that's what it took to land UNC and since the two Virginia schools are almost a wash, I could see that as well, especially if ESPN was protecting its holdings.

I might push back a little if the B1G and SEC proposed this idea (slightly off topic) for 2026. 8 auto-bids + 8 at-large

B1G and SEC get 2 auto bids each as P2 conferences

4 auto bids for top 4 conference champs from M3+G5

Top 4 conference champs get a double bye (probably to Rose, Cotton, Sugar, Orange Bowls)

Remaining 2 champs + B1G & SEC runners-up get a single bye (likely on campus)

Top 8 at-large participate play in 1st round on campus


This opens up conference semis to the B1G and SEC with 2 winners playing for a CFP spot and at least a single bye, additional revenue, and additional 4 at-larges

G5 champs still have a chance to qualify for CFP, maybe a 2nd champ via. at-large or weak M3 champ

M3 conferences get nearly guaranteed spot (gives the PAC some incentive to try to survive), and a chance at multiple bids, they can do conference semis, but it risks their top team(s) missing the championship

ND now has 8 at-large spots to qualify instead of 4 or 6

CCGs remain relevant for conferences and everyone makes additional money with another round of the CFP without cannibalizing games like a normal 16 team bracket would.

Seems like a win-win-win-win.

I like the way you are thinking about this and a few other things you've posted. I just believe that pay for play and what will likely follow with a hoops separation from the NCAA, will lead to a clear upper tier of no more than 3 conferences and possibly 2 functioning as leagues.

In that world if we move to a 16 team playoff more Conference playoff rounds would be simply included in the playoff structure, like with the AFC and NFC. I'm thinking 48 to 56 schools in two leagues. If we have more there will be 3 conferences.

Does ESPN have the time slots to do this (i.e. the A&P portion-they will find slots to expand the SEC to 20)? Maybe on ESPN2 and ESPNU, but where is the ad revenue to generate a big enough payment?

(06-13-2023 10:05 PM)bullet Wrote:  Does ESPN have the time slots to do this (i.e. the A&P portion-they will find slots to expand the SEC to 20)? Maybe on ESPN2 and ESPNU, but where is the ad revenue to generate a big enough payment?

It's simple math Bullet. Each SEC T1 game is worth 28 million to ESPN/ABC. If Florida State creates a minimum of 3 T1 games vs an SEC schedule and FSU/UF is one of them then they pay their way in. The same is true for Clemson and the Clemson/South Carolina game is almost as solid for the Tigers. Put Clemson against Georgia or Auburn and you have another. Put Clemson against FSU and you have a third. Ditto for Miami if they are included. Miami vs Florida and Miami vs FSU would be two.

Realistically each will generate 5 more T1 games in the SEC so ESPN should be able to clear over 60 million on each of them in the SEC.

North Carolina brings nearly 11 million viewers and Virginia nearly 9 million. They don't have to make the cut on content value. if you just take the two they provide enough T2 material plus the added money to the SECN to make it worth the additions. And in a good year UNC vs Clemson, vs FSU, vs Georgia, vs Tennessee would produce plenty of T1 material to pay their way. And that doesn't include hoops value for the two.

I seldom bring this up because frankly the value increases for the ACC and SEC with the suggested layout of schools and the subsequent format covers the price of ~340 to 350 million. The added West Coast markets doubles the output of the ACCN. Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State vs each other and ACC brands are worth what they are being paid now, roughly 38 million. The money for the conference is made up on the ACCN payouts. That lineup could hit 11-12 million a year or an increase of 5 million over where the ACCN is now per school.

ESPN has 40 key schools tied up which gives them leverage over future postseason play and a leg up on FOX which can't be made up. It also can be made up with fewer lower tier contracts handed out, and fewer overall contracts to manage. For a company valued in the billions this is cheap for the what they gain.

But the value is easily there for Clemson, Florida State, or Miami, and for North Carolina. Virginia would be the push but it allows ESPN to double dip that market with the SECN and ACCN and do the same in North Carolina. So, 20 million approaching 21 million households covered by two subscription fee T3 networks.

I'm not sure where a projection of $2.5 billion for a 12 team CFP is coming from, but I don't believe it. I'd be surprised if it pays half that amount. That being said, it's still a lot of money. Going to 16 wouldn't increase the payout pro rata - the additional games wouldn't be worth as much as the first 12. And a 16 team playoff that doesn't have a long weekend (like Thanksgiving) means there would be 8 games competing against each other for eyeballs in the first round, possibly four of which would be projected to be uncompetitive (depending on how many autobids there are).

It also means that the finalists will have played 17 games, which means there will likely be some pushback from presidents. Even though that blowback would be overridden, there will likely have to be some other compromises made to throw them a bone.

If it were up to me, I would rather see conference semifinals where revenue isn't shared, playing down to an 8 team quarterfinal round with revenue shared widely.

(06-14-2023 07:49 AM)ken d Wrote:  I'm not sure where a projection of $2.5 billion for a 12 team CFP is coming from, but I don't believe it. I'd be surprised if it pays half that amount. That being said, it's still a lot of money. Going to 16 wouldn't increase the payout pro rata - the additional games wouldn't be worth as much as the first 12. And a 16 team playoff that doesn't have a long weekend (like Thanksgiving) means there would be 8 games competing against each other for eyeballs in the first round, possibly four of which would be projected to be uncompetitive (depending on how many autobids there are).

It also means that the finalists will have played 17 games, which means there will likely be some pushback from presidents. Even though that blowback would be overridden, there will likely have to be some other compromises made to throw them a bone.

If it were up to me, I would rather see conference semifinals where revenue isn't shared, playing down to an 8 team quarterfinal round with revenue shared widely.

The estimate was given by some industry experts when they were talking about it and it was considered a lowball estimate. They spoke of it as how the pot would be treated. 50% of NET profits to the Networks involved and 50% to conferences involved. I don't care if you believe it our not. Just the SEC CCG brings 70 million. The Super Bowl generates 16.5 billion in revenue nationally for that 1 game. Almost half a billion in advertising. And that game is OTA delivered by a network.

Whether we have 12 or 16 schools Ken doesn't impact the number of weekends extra college football at it's highest level is offered. It's still four weekends either way. While I agree that 2 more games on Week #1 won't bring in top dollar, they will still generate significant revenue. Disney will be paying the SEC 28 million for each T1 game in the regular season. Now consider that the playoff games would generate a little bit more than the regular season SEC games which are regional in nature but with national appeal, and imagine how many would tune in for a playoff game between say Michigan State and Texas A&M in Week #1. 35-40 million for those each of those first round games would be a conservative estimate. So, 320 million on Week #1. Think 75 million on Week #2 which would be another 300 million. Now think in terms of 125 million for week #3 for each game. 250 million more. Now think of the game being worth 350 million more. That's 1.17 billion to the conferences involved. Let's say there are 72 schools. That's 16.25 million each and that's NET. So 18 million each was not off much from that when based on the gross estimates.

There is your impetus for a breakaway upper tier of 3 conferences each of which would receive an equal distribution of the funds. The 2 million each participant makes would be an insignificant amount compared to the conference total. Just like it was with the BCS and current CFP.

The per school figure tossed out by the think tank was 20 million per school in conference distributions, but then their projected field was 64 teams.

(06-13-2023 10:37 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 10:05 PM)bullet Wrote:  Does ESPN have the time slots to do this (i.e. the A&P portion-they will find slots to expand the SEC to 20)? Maybe on ESPN2 and ESPNU, but where is the ad revenue to generate a big enough payment?

It's simple math Bullet. Each SEC T1 game is worth 28 million to ESPN/ABC. If Florida State creates a minimum of 3 T1 games vs an SEC schedule and FSU/UF is one of them then they pay their way in. The same is true for Clemson and the Clemson/South Carolina game is almost as solid for the Tigers. Put Clemson against Georgia or Auburn and you have another. Put Clemson against FSU and you have a third. Ditto for Miami if they are included. Miami vs Florida and Miami vs FSU would be two.

Realistically each will generate 5 more T1 games in the SEC so ESPN should be able to clear over 60 million on each of them in the SEC.

North Carolina brings nearly 11 million viewers and Virginia nearly 9 million. They don't have to make the cut on content value. if you just take the two they provide enough T2 material plus the added money to the SECN to make it worth the additions. And in a good year UNC vs Clemson, vs FSU, vs Georgia, vs Tennessee would produce plenty of T1 material to pay their way. And that doesn't include hoops value for the two.

I seldom bring this up because frankly the value increases for the ACC and SEC with the suggested layout of schools and the subsequent format covers the price of ~340 to 350 million. The added West Coast markets doubles the output of the ACCN. Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State vs each other and ACC brands are worth what they are being paid now, roughly 38 million. The money for the conference is made up on the ACCN payouts. That lineup could hit 11-12 million a year or an increase of 5 million over where the ACCN is now per school.

ESPN has 40 key schools tied up which gives them leverage over future postseason play and a leg up on FOX which can't be made up. It also can be made up with fewer lower tier contracts handed out, and fewer overall contracts to manage. For a company valued in the billions this is cheap for the what they gain.

But the value is easily there for Clemson, Florida State, or Miami, and for North Carolina. Virginia would be the push but it allows ESPN to double dip that market with the SECN and ACCN and do the same in North Carolina. So, 20 million approaching 21 million households covered by two subscription fee T3 networks.

Oh I see it for the SEC 20. I just don't see it for the Atlantic & Pacific 20. Both will be less than they are now and the conference networks are steadily declining in value. And they will be stuck mostly on ESPN2 and ESPNU.

The interesting thing about the latest SEC deal is the former CBS "game of the week" is worth as much as the rest of the non-SEC network games combined. There is a geometric scale on the value of games. 4 million viewers is worth way more than double 2 million viewers.

(06-15-2023 08:02 AM)bullet Wrote:  The interesting thing about the latest SEC deal is the former CBS "game of the week" is worth as much as the rest of the non-SEC network games combined. There is double 2 million viewers.

ESPN paid an arm and a leg to wrangle that game away from CBS, but it did help the SEC to stay competitive with the B1G and keep the conference from getting wandering eyes.

I think the best course would be a best of the rest with Big 12/Pac 10/ACC merger.

Oregon
Washington
Arizona
Colorado
BYU
Kansas
Oklahoma State
TCU
Texas Tech
UVA
UNC
Florida State
Miami
Clemson
West Virginia
Georgia Tech

Wouldn't quite be a P2 but it's not far off.

(06-15-2023 11:17 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-15-2023 08:02 AM)bullet Wrote:  The interesting thing about the latest SEC deal is the former CBS "game of the week" is worth as much as the rest of the non-SEC network games combined. There is double 2 million viewers.

ESPN paid an arm and a leg to wrangle that game away from CBS, but it did help the SEC to stay competitive with the B1G and keep the conference from getting wandering eyes.

ESPN is setting up their long game and using the SEC as a proxy. If they shift North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, and Miami to the SEC all they have to do is wait.

There is no way the Big 10 elite can stand up to that lineup. Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin will eventually come knocking and the League will be born. Notre Dame and USC will take it 28. Then ESPN can pick up 4 major market adds and they are done. Washington, Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado would be the kinds of markets they would need to make the League national in every regard.

Arizona State, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oregon, Southern California, Texas, Washington

Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Virginia

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Miami, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee


Now you have a mix of programs which hit the major markets and contains all of the champions of the past 25 years or so.

You have 16 games to market every Saturday in the Fall and ESPN essentially brokers those out to ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX and ESPN airs the late games on ESPN and ESPN2 and airs T2 material during the day so as not to compete directly with what they broker. The could get the 4 OTA networks to bid on games each week and if both took 2 that leaves ESPN 8 more to use for themselves, or market another way or on another day.

It could work.

I doubt it's possible to have ACC schools free to move to the SEC but assume that no ACC schools nor PAC schools could move to the B1G. That seems to be a gigantic legal mess to open up the contracts to make that possible.

This would mean the Big XII's next media deal is worth $0, because there's enough SEC inventory for all of ABC/ESPN, and the ACC inventory would be partially on ABC/ESPN (for the big games if they existed) and then on FOX/FS1 also.

Hard to see Kansas not included in that revamped ACC somehow. This super league is excluding a lot of key basketball schools.

The B1G elite are still not going to care. They'll have better network exposure and access to CFP spots by staying in the B1G, since those are going to be largely guaranteed for them.

If there's ever a super conference, Vanderbilt is simply not going to be in it. Nor will there be two Mississippi schools or have Illinois completely excluded as a state.

I also don't think the super powerful schools are going to allow ESPN to be puppeteering everything. They don't need ESPN to broker for them, at that point they would be a mini-NFL and ESPN would be their last choice, just like how the NFL treats ABC/ESPN.

Last, I can understand how this is better for ESPN if I squint, but I can't see how this is better for the soon-to-be 16 SEC members. Destroying regionality for what purpose?