CSNbbs
New Realignment Thread - Printable Version

+- CSNbbs (https://csnbbs.com)
+-- Forum: Active Boards (/forum-769.html)
+--- Forum: AACbbs (/forum-460.html)
+---- Forum: Members (/forum-401.html)
+----- Forum: Rice (/forum-444.html)
+----- Thread: New Realignment Thread (/thread-925473.html)



RE: New Realignment Thread - Ourland - 07-31-2023 10:10 PM

(07-31-2023 09:58 AM)markbrindley Wrote:  
(07-31-2023 09:52 AM)Ourland Wrote:  
(07-31-2023 09:38 AM)Almadenmike Wrote:  
(07-31-2023 08:04 AM)BillyD Wrote:  For what it's worth. AAC & MAC?

https://twitter.com/MACBarstool/status/1685708333003550723?t=A4v9aaBAavdn7uywVlo6cA&s=19

Yuck!!

Aresco would never go for that. Some of those schools might be applying for future membership, but they'll never get in.


Aresco should be working media contracts behind the scenes to bring on the rest of the PAC12 teams should the four corners teams and UW/UO leave. Currently, PAC12 teams have no exit fee to pay and no TV tie-in, so much easier than teams leaving AAC to go to the PAC12.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Maybe he is. That would be quite the development. BIG10 would have to be willing to swoop in for the kill.


RE: New Realignment Thread - Orange County Owl - 08-02-2023 03:01 PM

And ... here we go.

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-big-ten-has-begun-preliminary-talks-to-potentially-add-oregon-washington-cal-and-stanford-173934989.html


RE: New Realignment Thread - GoodOwl - 08-02-2023 08:29 PM

(08-02-2023 03:01 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  And ... here we go.

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-big-ten-has-begun-preliminary-talks-to-potentially-add-oregon-washington-cal-and-stanford-173934989.html

Well, Arizona, ASU and Utah so far seemed to have greeted the PAC-12 Apple TV streaming offer with a tepid response. While streaming may long-term be a bigger future for sports than it is today, seems several schools are taking the current situation as a signal to carefully mull their options of whether they want to stay together in the PAC12 at all.

Meanwhile, FSU (Florida, not Fresno State) is making noise about not wanting to stay in the ACC until GOR expires in 2036. A $30 million deficit every year to B1G and SEC schools appears to be a bridge too far for them to stomach that long. If the ACC suffers defections at the same time the PAC explodes and/or dies then Rice may have some opportunities to get with some of the left-overs. Is our new AD ready? Well, he's not here yet officially until the 14th...how up to speed on all this will he be?


New Realignment Thread - owl at the moon - 08-02-2023 09:08 PM

(08-02-2023 08:29 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  
(08-02-2023 03:01 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  And ... here we go.

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-big-ten-has-begun-preliminary-talks-to-potentially-add-oregon-washington-cal-and-stanford-173934989.html

Well, Arizona, ASU and Utah so far seemed to have greeted the PAC-12 Apple TV streaming offer with a tepid response. While streaming may long-term be a bigger future for sports than it is today, seems several schools are taking the current situation as a signal to carefully mull their options of whether they want to stay together in the PAC12 at all.

Meanwhile, FSU (Florida, not Fresno State) is making noise about not wanting to stay in the ACC until GOR expires in 2036. A $30 million deficit every year to B1G and SEC schools appears to be a bridge too far for them to stomach that long. If the ACC suffers defections at the same time the PAC explodes and/or dies then Rice may have some opportunities to get with some of the left-overs. Is our new AD ready? Well, he's not here yet officially until the 14th...how up to speed on all this will he be?


Tanner Gardner is the interim AD until McClelland’s start date.

Has the potential to be a fairly historic couple of weeks though 03-wink


RE: New Realignment Thread - Ourland - 08-02-2023 09:16 PM

It's a cautionary tale that Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah have gone silent. No statements of commitment since finding out the tv numbers. The silence is defening. I think they're all organizing the jump to the BIG12.


RE: New Realignment Thread - Almadenmike - 08-02-2023 09:27 PM

(08-02-2023 08:29 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  
(08-02-2023 03:01 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  And ... here we go.

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-big-ten-has-begun-preliminary-talks-to-potentially-add-oregon-washington-cal-and-stanford-173934989.html

Well, Arizona, ASU and Utah so far seemed to have greeted the PAC-12 Apple TV streaming offer with a tepid response. While streaming may long-term be a bigger future for sports than it is today, seems several schools are taking the current situation as a signal to carefully mull their options of whether they want to stay together in the PAC12 at all.

Meanwhile, FSU (Florida, not Fresno State) is making noise about not wanting to stay in the ACC until GOR expires in 2036. A $30 million deficit every year to B1G and SEC schools appears to be a bridge too far for them to stomach that long. If the ACC suffers defections at the same time the PAC explodes and/or dies then Rice may have some opportunities to get with some of the left-overs. Is our new AD ready? Well, he's not here yet officially until the 14th...how up to speed on all this will he be?

Here are links to 3 stories of note:

ESPN's report on the PAC-12's streaming deal with Apple:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38116124/sources-pac-12-leaders-presented-apple-streaming-deal

Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury) on the Big Ten's possible interest in Cal & Stanford, which would destroy the Pac-12: https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/08/02/report-stanford-cal-oregon-and-washington-under-consideration-for-membership-in-the-big-ten

Wilner's 10-point reaction/analysis to what little is known about the details of the Pac-12's media deal and the conference's prospects for survival: https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/08/02/pac-12-survival-the-downside-risks-potential-benefits-and-missing-pieces-within-an-apple-deal/

Perhaps most relevant to Rice's future standing in the coming sports media landscape is this:

Quote:9. The conference ... needs a 10th team in time for the 2024 football season. Will the targets change with a media contract that connects revenue to streaming subscriptions?

If the size of the fan base matters more than the size of the media market, perhaps San Diego State (undergraduate enrollment: approximately 31,000) is more advantageous than SMU (7,000).

Perhaps the conference would reconsider the merits of large schools with passionate followings, like Fresno State and Boise State, that have not been on the expansion radar.

Hopefully our large-market Houston location, excellent academic standing and a storied (if relatively ancient) athletic history/tradition will trump our relatively limited base of passionate, stream-subscribing fans.


RE: New Realignment Thread - Owl 69/70/75 - 08-02-2023 09:35 PM

Maybe streaming is the future way for Rice. They're not going to get into a league with a big TV deal. Not sure how much streaming would pay, but for a G5 conference it might be the best deal.


RE: New Realignment Thread - markbrindley - 08-02-2023 10:08 PM

(08-02-2023 09:35 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Maybe streaming is the future way for Rice. They're not going to get into a league with a big TV deal. Not sure how much streaming would pay, but for a G5 conference it might be the best deal.

The issue with streaming is that the guaranteed payout is significantly lower than a committed contract with one of the networks. As noted in the articles linked above, the guaranteed amount from Apple for the P12 is ~$20M/school, while the B12 is $30M+ and the B1G is $60M+ (for current members). Apple offered the P12 tiered incentives based on subscriptions sold that could easily surpass the $40M/school if the highest tiers are met.

Unfortunately, an athletic department has to be able to set a budget that they know will be delivered and can't depend on the potential upside, so P12 schools would basically be $10-20M behind the B12 in year one at a minimum.

Assuming Rice could get a guaranteed payout at AAC levels and tiered upside potential, it would probably be good for us. Not so much for those who can get B12, SEC, or B1G guaranteed payouts by moving to one of those conferences.

The only positive to the Apple deal for the P12 is that Apple was offering to pay off the Holiday Bowl and Comcast (?) debts as a part of the contract, but that would still leave each school with a deficit when it comes to operating budgets under the agreement.


RE: New Realignment Thread - Hambone10 - 08-03-2023 04:56 PM

(08-02-2023 10:08 PM)markbrindley Wrote:  
(08-02-2023 09:35 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Maybe streaming is the future way for Rice. They're not going to get into a league with a big TV deal. Not sure how much streaming would pay, but for a G5 conference it might be the best deal.

The issue with streaming is that the guaranteed payout is significantly lower than a committed contract with one of the networks.

I suggested streaming many years ago... in part to collect ANY revenue (as compared to CUSA's paltry numbers) but more as a way to connect alumni, donors and potentially attract new fans who aren't going to buy ESPN+ or another similar true sports feed, but MIGHT buy more of an academic feed that also includes some Track, Swimming, women's soccer, volleyball and Tennis, the MOB etc coverage or even Opera, art or theatre programming or even select lectures on top of people like us. Let athletics be the backbone of it, and then cut these other areas in on the revenues for producing content to drive viewers..... our own Owl Network... ON demand. Market Rice athletics to our people... and people who are like minded. Do this ON TOP of the TV deals.


RE: New Realignment Thread - westsidewolf1989 - 08-03-2023 06:00 PM

Big 10 presidents authorized the commissioner to explore adding Oregon and Washington. Stanford and Cal have to be hoping they will be able to tag along or they are going to be looking to the Mountain West/Big West conferences.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38129312/sources-big-ten-commissioner-explore-adding-oregon-washington


RE: New Realignment Thread - westsidewolf1989 - 08-03-2023 10:31 PM

Arizona basically heading to Big 12 as of tonight

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38130567/sources-arizona-deal-big-12-expected-finalized-soon


RE: New Realignment Thread - Almadenmike - 08-04-2023 10:49 AM

(08-03-2023 10:31 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  Arizona basically heading to Big 12 as of tonight

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38130567/sources-arizona-deal-big-12-expected-finalized-soon

Or maybe not!

Overnight and this morning, the fate of the Pac 12 has fallen, risen ... and fallen.

https://footballscoop.com/news/the-pac-12-may-survive-after-all
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/oregon-washington-to-big-ten-has-become-coin-toss-as-pac-12-makes-last-attempt-to-salvage-league/


RE: New Realignment Thread - Hambone10 - 08-04-2023 11:05 AM

If we had some revenue streaming, perhaps we could at least cover the cost of constantly re-branding our uniforms and fields, or buying team flags for our new conference mates.


RE: New Realignment Thread - Almadenmike - 08-04-2023 11:41 AM

(08-03-2023 04:56 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(08-02-2023 10:08 PM)markbrindley Wrote:  
(08-02-2023 09:35 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Maybe streaming is the future way for Rice. They're not going to get into a league with a big TV deal. Not sure how much streaming would pay, but for a G5 conference it might be the best deal.

The issue with streaming is that the guaranteed payout is significantly lower than a committed contract with one of the networks.

I suggested streaming many years ago... in part to collect ANY revenue (as compared to CUSA's paltry numbers) but more as a way to connect alumni, donors and potentially attract new fans who aren't going to buy ESPN+ or another similar true sports feed, but MIGHT buy more of an academic feed that also includes some Track, Swimming, women's soccer, volleyball and Tennis, the MOB etc coverage or even Opera, art or theatre programming or even select lectures on top of people like us. Let athletics be the backbone of it, and then cut these other areas in on the revenues for producing content to drive viewers..... our own Owl Network... ON demand. Market Rice athletics to our people... and people who are like minded. Do this ON TOP of the TV deals.

(08-04-2023 11:05 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  If we had some revenue streaming, perhaps we could at least cover the cost of constantly re-branding our uniforms and fields, or buying team flags for our new conference mates.

Does anyone know the number of Rice fans who already pay for Rice-related streaming-like media (e.g., CUSAtv, ESPNPlus...)?

With our small alumni/fan base, I fear that a streaming-based revenue system would put Rice at the very bottom, income-wise.

The cost of producing quality streaming events would be the same for everyone (although better-funded schools could produce higher-quality streams). But could Rice pull in enough subscription-paying viewers to yield millions in net revenue gain?


RE: New Realignment Thread - Hambone10 - 08-04-2023 12:37 PM

(08-04-2023 11:41 AM)Almadenmike Wrote:  Does anyone know the number of Rice fans who already pay for Rice-related streaming-like media (e.g., CUSAtv, ESPNPlus...)?

With our small alumni/fan base, I fear that a streaming-based revenue system would put Rice at the very bottom, income-wise.

The cost of producing quality streaming events would be the same for everyone (although better-funded schools could produce higher-quality streams). But could Rice pull in enough subscription-paying viewers to yield millions in net revenue gain?

For sports, I am convinced that the number is a rounding error to zero (not zero, but not financially viable)...

Which is why you need to include parents and family of athletes, especially non-revs or even club sports.... AND ESPECIALLY non-sports related content like Opera or Theatre or even the occasional lecture.

The idea being that we may not get someone to pay to watch... but we still may be able to monetize it tangentially.

And really, we may not get anyone to pay for much of anything.... but we may be able to build a base of eyeballs and clicks that we can monetize through side-ads...

We probably have lots of parents who attend one or two track meets, who hear about results from their kids hours later... who might be happy to pay a few dollars to watch more of their kids races... and now they see a lecture series that they think is interesting... etc and vice versa.

I think the 'base' we are missing is the med center doctor or international oil executive or engineer who attended an Ivy or a school without big sports who might be interested in something academic that we promote, who then sees a track or opera or rugby or soccer event that they say hey... I might stop by and watch that or at least watch the stream... and suddenly we have a new 'affinity' member.

Getting eyeballs because you're good is the way that everyone is trying to get eyeballs.... and while we can do that, we're not likely to beat a lot of teams like that without spending a whole lot more. Getting eyeballs because you have an affinity is a 'different' way of doing that. UT and most flagship schools try and do it through the whole 'state pride' thing... and we can't do that... but perhaps we can do it through other means.

God, why does that sound like the speech Lewis gives at the end of "Revenge of the Nerds'? Or Sidney White at the end of THAT movie?


RE: New Realignment Thread - markbrindley - 08-04-2023 01:08 PM

(08-04-2023 12:37 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(08-04-2023 11:41 AM)Almadenmike Wrote:  Does anyone know the number of Rice fans who already pay for Rice-related streaming-like media (e.g., CUSAtv, ESPNPlus...)?

With our small alumni/fan base, I fear that a streaming-based revenue system would put Rice at the very bottom, income-wise.

The cost of producing quality streaming events would be the same for everyone (although better-funded schools could produce higher-quality streams). But could Rice pull in enough subscription-paying viewers to yield millions in net revenue gain?

For sports, I am convinced that the number is a rounding error to zero (not zero, but not financially viable)...

Which is why you need to include parents and family of athletes, especially non-revs or even club sports.... AND ESPECIALLY non-sports related content like Opera or Theatre or even the occasional lecture.

The idea being that we may not get someone to pay to watch... but we still may be able to monetize it tangentially.

And really, we may not get anyone to pay for much of anything.... but we may be able to build a base of eyeballs and clicks that we can monetize through side-ads...

We probably have lots of parents who attend one or two track meets, who hear about results from their kids hours later... who might be happy to pay a few dollars to watch more of their kids races... and now they see a lecture series that they think is interesting... etc and vice versa.

I think the 'base' we are missing is the med center doctor or international oil executive or engineer who attended an Ivy or a school without big sports who might be interested in something academic that we promote, who then sees a track or opera or rugby or soccer event that they say hey... I might stop by and watch that or at least watch the stream... and suddenly we have a new 'affinity' member.

Getting eyeballs because you're good is the way that everyone is trying to get eyeballs.... and while we can do that, we're not likely to beat a lot of teams like that without spending a whole lot more. Getting eyeballs because you have an affinity is a 'different' way of doing that. UT and most flagship schools try and do it through the whole 'state pride' thing... and we can't do that... but perhaps we can do it through other means.

God, why does that sound like the speech Lewis gives at the end of "Revenge of the Nerds'? Or Sidney White at the end of THAT movie?

As an additive plan to TV money, it may work. As a standalone plan, you are probably talking hundreds to low thousands in subscribers even if you take in every fan and family member/friend.


RE: New Realignment Thread - Hambone10 - 08-04-2023 01:25 PM

(08-04-2023 01:08 PM)markbrindley Wrote:  As an additive plan to TV money, it may work. As a standalone plan, you are probably talking hundreds to low thousands in subscribers even if you take in every fan and family member/friend.

Absolutely.

Again, I brought it up first when we were in CUSA with iirc, 200k/yr for the whole package with very few of our games (and none of the non-premier games) available.

Purely an add-on... just a way to try and build a fan/affinity base


RE: New Realignment Thread - Almadenmike - 08-04-2023 01:37 PM

(08-04-2023 10:49 AM)Almadenmike Wrote:  
(08-03-2023 10:31 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  Arizona basically heading to Big 12 as of tonight

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38130567/sources-arizona-deal-big-12-expected-finalized-soon

Or maybe not!

Overnight and this morning, the fate of the Pac 12 has fallen, risen ... and fallen.

https://footballscoop.com/news/the-pac-12-may-survive-after-all
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/oregon-washington-to-big-ten-has-become-coin-toss-as-pac-12-makes-last-attempt-to-salvage-league/

And now, the Pac 12's future has apparently falling further!

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/38134021/big-ten-set-send-invites-oregon-washington-sources-say

This article's sources say "Oregon and Washington are finalizing a deal to join the Big Ten. ... The schools are expected to formally apply for membership Friday... and a Big Ten vote is expected to take place this evening. ...

Arizona has applied to and been admitted to the Big 12 ... although that deal has yet to be finalized. And conversations between the Big 12 and Utah and Arizona State ramped up on Friday."


RE: New Realignment Thread - Orange County Owl - 08-04-2023 01:43 PM

Pac 12 is done ... likely down to four schools within 24 hours. Guess there's a way outside chance that Big 12 tells ASU and Utah to take a hike (for slow playing them until this morning) ... but not likely. Arizona has been aggressively pursuing Big 12. Going forward ...

Wazzu and Oregon St likely to end up in some sort of MWC mix.

Cal and Stanford have very interesting decisions and arguably existential crises. I'm sure independence is tempting but that's a crazy complicated thing to pull together by next July (including TV/media rights). Remember, all of these moves are for NEXT FALL!


RE: New Realignment Thread - erice - 08-04-2023 02:00 PM

(08-04-2023 01:43 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  Cal and Stanford have very interesting decisions and arguably existential crises. I'm sure independence is tempting but that's a crazy complicated thing to pull together by next July (including TV/media rights). Remember, all of these moves are for NEXT FALL!

Welcome to the curb, Cal & Stanford. Almost 30 years later, I can tell you, it only gets worse.

Others have mentioned that the prospects, today, for some sort of Magnolia* conference are better than ever (even if still fairly low). Might be, but I wonder if our athletic performance on and off the field over the years has been so poor that we won't merit consideration for membership. It would suck if we miss that ship.


*Is it still "Magnolia" if Stanford's in?