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A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - Printable Version

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RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - XLance - 09-18-2020 07:05 AM

(09-15-2020 03:21 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 04:50 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(09-13-2020 09:22 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(09-11-2020 12:57 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(09-10-2020 05:57 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I love it! The college game in the SEC is very strong and we make money on baseball. The Southern ACC schools and the Big 12 and some of the West Coast schools could form a very nice association. And when I said the money was in the tournament it's because it too is controlled by the NCAA who doles out a little to the 64 schools who make the field, but nothing like they could make by holding their own tournament and splitting the TV money. We already monetize the regular season and Conference Tournament pretty well. So it's the tourney money that would put it over the top for more schools.

It's still one of the most relaxing ways to spend a Spring afternoon.

Oddly, the first college sports event I attended was a baseball game. Way, way back in the 60s when I was a kid I went to a UK-LSU game in Lexington.

Same for me. Used to go to Alabama baseball games as a kid on occasion. I was in high school before I ever went to a football or basketball game.

The recent growth of youth "Travel Baseball" has been huge.
When municipalities almost killed youth baseball when they instituted participation baseball.......every kid that wanted to play made some team.
Youth soccer was king here in Greensboro.
When I was coaching baseball, there were several years when 1/3 of my team would miss games to try out for a soccer team. It didn't make for good relations with their parents, who seemed to have an odd understanding of commitment.
Now the shoe is on the other foot. Travel ball plays in the spring and fall......and the better athletes are now playing baseball on a scale not seen since late '50 and early '60s.
Complexes are being built, tournaments are being held, youth baseball is attracting great athletes, which in turn is attracting attention to the college game.
https://www.ripkenbaseball.com/myrtle-beach-facilities
https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1AOHY_enUS715US716&source=univ&tbm=isch&q=cal+ripken+experience+pictures&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi2_9DDrujrAhWkuVkKHehEAWQQsAR6BAgKEAE&biw=1137&bih=754

Baseball and women's softball are the next "big thing" in collegiate athletic television broadcasting.

And moving the season would help draw attention.

Not having to compete with March Madness or the latter schedules of Winter sports should help baseball and softball with ratings and attendance.

The shrinking of the minor leagues is going to help too. More quality ball players in the college ranks and fewer communities with a local team to watch.

https://www.axios.com/minor-league-baseball-contraction-affiliate-status-c982331a-ae6a-4f5f-8eca-b902eb2c153a.html

This is the perfect opportunity for collegiate baseball to fill in the gap created by the shrinking minor league systems.
The down side would be the eventual elimination of collegiate summer league baseball whose seasons are already shortened to no more than 6-8 weeks.
If the trend continues for first semester exams to be over by Thanksgiving, the College calendars will kill off those leagues by themselves because students will have to return to campus earlier in August.


RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - XLance - 09-23-2020 05:11 AM

What we will see with future realignment is; inventory management for the networks.
Moving schools into positions so that TV schedules for each region of the country can be maximized.
It may be years before college football fans return in full numbers. Many season ticket holders (especially older ones) may not ever return.
TV revenue (even though reduced) will become more important. Stadium sizes will be reduced. Coaching salaries that were cut this year, will not return to the rapid growth we have seen over the last 20 years.
The west coast as a major force is done and in several years won't even be counted among the P5.

The real danger of the next 3-5 years is that the networks (ESPN/FOX) will not be willing to invest in college sports without more guarantees of reliable inventory.
This year's actions of the B1G and the PAC have permanently damaged their future value.


RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - schmolik - 09-23-2020 05:39 AM

(09-23-2020 05:11 AM)XLance Wrote:  What we will see with future realignment is; inventory management for the networks.
Moving schools into positions so that TV schedules for each region of the country can be maximized.
It may be years before college football fans return in full numbers. Many season ticket holders (especially older ones) may not ever return.
TV revenue (even though reduced) will become more important. Stadium sizes will be reduced. Coaching salaries that were cut this year, will not return to the rapid growth we have seen over the last 20 years.
The west coast as a major force is done and in several years won't even be counted among the P5.

The real danger of the next 3-5 years is that the networks (ESPN/FOX) will not be willing to invest in college sports without more guarantees of reliable inventory.
This year's actions of the B1G and the PAC have permanently damaged their future value.

Once the Big Ten starts playing games and fans start watching, FOX and ESPN will forget the B1G initially canceled the season. You think people are going to boycott Big Ten games because "they didn't want to play in August?" Last Saturday FOX was all over the Big Ten talking about their schedule. They released every game, every week. You could have copied down Rutgers' entire schedule if you wanted to! If Big Ten ratings are higher than Big 12 and ACC ratings this season like I expect they will, the networks will still pay for the Big Ten in the future. Remember who owns a majority share in the Big Ten Network? FOX. I'm sure they'll still be giving us a decent pay day. You can't say that about the Big 12 or Pac 12. Assuming it is played, I expect Michigan-Ohio State to outdraw every ACC game this year.

What if games get canceled because of COVID-19? It's not like that's not happening in the ACC (Virginia-Virginia Tech, Notre Dame-Wake Forest were at least postponed) or Big 12 (two Baylor Big Noon games were off).


RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - Fighting Muskie - 09-23-2020 01:31 PM

Inventory management is a great word for it. The networks want to concentrate the big brands into fewer conferences to cut down on their total payouts.

I don’t see the COVID debacle permanently hurting the Big Ten but the PAC 12 is a declining property and I think this year will hasten that decline. The question is will they hold tight and decline together or will their more valuable members seek independence or membership in another conference to keep competing at a high level.


RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - schmolik - 09-23-2020 02:40 PM

(09-23-2020 01:31 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Inventory management is a great word for it. The networks want to concentrate the big brands into fewer conferences to cut down on their total payouts.

I don’t see the COVID debacle permanently hurting the Big Ten but the PAC 12 is a declining property and I think this year will hasten that decline. The question is will they hold tight and decline together or will their more valuable members seek independence or membership in another conference to keep competing at a high level.

Some other conference has to want the Pac-12 members. On paper, UCLA, USC, Cal, and or Stanford would be valuable. Maybe they would be as football only. Try asking the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, or (gasp) ACC women's volleyball teams to LA or San Fran for games. Geographically maybe Colorado and/or the Arizona schools get a look. The California schools will be in play because California is California. Oregon has good football and that will be a factor but the geography is terrible. Washington's football isn't as good as Oregon and geography's worse than Oregon although Seattle is a bigger market than Portland.


RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - Fighting Muskie - 09-23-2020 06:41 PM

(09-23-2020 02:40 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(09-23-2020 01:31 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Inventory management is a great word for it. The networks want to concentrate the big brands into fewer conferences to cut down on their total payouts.

I don’t see the COVID debacle permanently hurting the Big Ten but the PAC 12 is a declining property and I think this year will hasten that decline. The question is will they hold tight and decline together or will their more valuable members seek independence or membership in another conference to keep competing at a high level.

Some other conference has to want the Pac-12 members. On paper, UCLA, USC, Cal, and or Stanford would be valuable. Maybe they would be as football only. Try asking the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, or (gasp) ACC women's volleyball teams to LA or San Fran for games. Geographically maybe Colorado and/or the Arizona schools get a look. The California schools will be in play because California is California. Oregon has good football and that will be a factor but the geography is terrible. Washington's football isn't as good as Oregon and geography's worse than Oregon although Seattle is a bigger market than Portland.

If they start breaking ranks, I see them splitting among the Big Ten and Big 12, with the rest rebuilding as a tweener conference or merging into the MWC.

6-8 could approach the Big 12 about a partial merger or a few cream of the crop programs with AAU membership get on the line with the Big Ten.


RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - XLance - 09-25-2020 04:50 AM

(09-23-2020 02:40 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(09-23-2020 01:31 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Inventory management is a great word for it. The networks want to concentrate the big brands into fewer conferences to cut down on their total payouts.

I don’t see the COVID debacle permanently hurting the Big Ten but the PAC 12 is a declining property and I think this year will hasten that decline. The question is will they hold tight and decline together or will their more valuable members seek independence or membership in another conference to keep competing at a high level.

Some other conference has to want the Pac-12 members. On paper, UCLA, USC, Cal, and or Stanford would be valuable. Maybe they would be as football only. Try asking the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, or (gasp) ACC women's volleyball teams to LA or San Fran for games. Geographically maybe Colorado and/or the Arizona schools get a look. The California schools will be in play because California is California. Oregon has good football and that will be a factor but the geography is terrible. Washington's football isn't as good as Oregon and geography's worse than Oregon although Seattle is a bigger market than Portland.

Why?
After what we have seen this year.....nobody wants to deal with PAC schools or travel to the west coast.


RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - Thiefery - 09-25-2020 09:36 AM

(09-25-2020 04:50 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(09-23-2020 02:40 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(09-23-2020 01:31 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Inventory management is a great word for it. The networks want to concentrate the big brands into fewer conferences to cut down on their total payouts.

I don’t see the COVID debacle permanently hurting the Big Ten but the PAC 12 is a declining property and I think this year will hasten that decline. The question is will they hold tight and decline together or will their more valuable members seek independence or membership in another conference to keep competing at a high level.

Some other conference has to want the Pac-12 members. On paper, UCLA, USC, Cal, and or Stanford would be valuable. Maybe they would be as football only. Try asking the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, or (gasp) ACC women's volleyball teams to LA or San Fran for games. Geographically maybe Colorado and/or the Arizona schools get a look. The California schools will be in play because California is California. Oregon has good football and that will be a factor but the geography is terrible. Washington's football isn't as good as Oregon and geography's worse than Oregon although Seattle is a bigger market than Portland.

Why?
After what we have seen this year.....nobody wants to deal with PAC schools or travel to the west coast.

AZ, UT probably are the most enticing for the Big12.. think SC goes independent before it thinks about the Big12 (although it could get a monster deal for it's tier3)


RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - JRsec - 09-25-2020 11:18 AM

(09-25-2020 09:36 AM)Thiefery Wrote:  
(09-25-2020 04:50 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(09-23-2020 02:40 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(09-23-2020 01:31 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Inventory management is a great word for it. The networks want to concentrate the big brands into fewer conferences to cut down on their total payouts.

I don’t see the COVID debacle permanently hurting the Big Ten but the PAC 12 is a declining property and I think this year will hasten that decline. The question is will they hold tight and decline together or will their more valuable members seek independence or membership in another conference to keep competing at a high level.

Some other conference has to want the Pac-12 members. On paper, UCLA, USC, Cal, and or Stanford would be valuable. Maybe they would be as football only. Try asking the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, or (gasp) ACC women's volleyball teams to LA or San Fran for games. Geographically maybe Colorado and/or the Arizona schools get a look. The California schools will be in play because California is California. Oregon has good football and that will be a factor but the geography is terrible. Washington's football isn't as good as Oregon and geography's worse than Oregon although Seattle is a bigger market than Portland.

Why?
After what we have seen this year.....nobody wants to deal with PAC schools or travel to the west coast.

AZ, UT probably are the most enticing for the Big12.. think SC goes independent before it thinks about the Big12 (although it could get a monster deal for it's tier3)

When you look a the metrics there are 4 PAC 12 schools that add to the bottom line of the Big 12: Stanford, Washington, U.C.L.A., and U.S.C. Arizona Sate has he better program numbers and Arizona the better academics, but both are among the most subsidized of the P5. Utah's athletic department has run into some significant red ink issues. Snatching the L.A. schools would definitely help, but probably isn't likely as a pair. U.S.C. could make the jump, but U.C.L.A. as a California state school would probably have oodles of red tape preventing them. And I doubt U.S.C. will come by themselves, but it at least is possible.

So if I'm the Big 12 I would concentrate on U.S.C., test the waters on Stanford and keep B.Y.U. as a back up. I get the issues with B.Y.U. but they add content value, some national appeal, add to the attendance average, and are well funded.


RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - Hokie Mark - 09-25-2020 11:47 AM

(09-25-2020 11:18 AM)JRsec Wrote:  When you look a the metrics there are 4 PAC 12 schools that add to the bottom line of the Big 12: Stanford, Washington, U.C.L.A., and U.S.C. Arizona Sate has he better program numbers and Arizona the better academics, but both are among the most subsidized of the P5. Utah's athletic department has run into some significant red ink issues. Snatching the L.A. schools would definitely help, but probably isn't likely as a pair. U.S.C. could make the jump, but U.C.L.A. as a California state school would probably have oodles of red tape preventing them. And I doubt U.S.C. will come by themselves, but it at least is possible.

So if I'm the Big 12 I would concentrate on U.S.C., test the waters on Stanford and keep B.Y.U. as a back up. I get the issues with B.Y.U. but they add content value, some national appeal, add to the attendance average, and are well funded.

I have to think if ESPN is going to bankroll a change like that, they would also find a new home for WVU (they would prefer ACC but would agree to SEC). In that case the Big XII adds an odd number of teams - either 3 or 5. USC and Stanford are no brainers, plus one of the Arizona schools most likely. I think Washington and Oregon are also offered (but not Wash. St. or Oregon St.). Utah and Colorado are secondary targets, IMO.


RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - JRsec - 09-25-2020 12:29 PM

(09-25-2020 11:47 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(09-25-2020 11:18 AM)JRsec Wrote:  When you look a the metrics there are 4 PAC 12 schools that add to the bottom line of the Big 12: Stanford, Washington, U.C.L.A., and U.S.C. Arizona Sate has he better program numbers and Arizona the better academics, but both are among the most subsidized of the P5. Utah's athletic department has run into some significant red ink issues. Snatching the L.A. schools would definitely help, but probably isn't likely as a pair. U.S.C. could make the jump, but U.C.L.A. as a California state school would probably have oodles of red tape preventing them. And I doubt U.S.C. will come by themselves, but it at least is possible.

So if I'm the Big 12 I would concentrate on U.S.C., test the waters on Stanford and keep B.Y.U. as a back up. I get the issues with B.Y.U. but they add content value, some national appeal, add to the attendance average, and are well funded.

I have to think if ESPN is going to bankroll a change like that, they would also find a new home for WVU (they would prefer ACC but would agree to SEC). In that case the Big XII adds an odd number of teams - either 3 or 5. USC and Stanford are no brainers, plus one of the Arizona schools most likely. I think Washington and Oregon are also offered (but not Wash. St. or Oregon St.). Utah and Colorado are secondary targets, IMO.

Mark look at the Revenue and Attendance numbers. There are only 4 schools that add to the Big 12's bottom line. Would ESPN agree to pay more than fair market value for 1 or 2 schools to make this happen? Maybe.

What ESPN can't do is force either the SEC or ACC to take WVU. That said WVU adds to the ACC's bottom line. It does not add to the SEC bottom line and when the day comes that ESPN no longer pays us, that detail will matter immensely when negotiating with another carrier.

For the sake of argument let's just assume somebody takes care of WVU. The adds from the PAC that profit ESPN the most are definitely the 4 I listed first with UW being 2nd to 3rd in all statistical categories in the PAC 12. Add Stanford and the 2 Los Angeles schools and you account for significant % of the PAC 12 Value.

I do see some Value in adding Oregon. When it comes to Cal not so much, and when it comes to Utah, Colorado, Arizona and Arizona State you run into other issues. If you take 1 Arizona school you likely have to take both. If you take Utah you are leaving the more valuable brand B.Y.U. still on the sidelines of the new upper tier. Colorado is really only valuable as a bridge, and who knows if the PAC breaks up the Big 10 might really be interested in the Colorado market, especially if the result is that Texas and Oklahoma now have a much more stable conference.

Let's assume that we are all simply going to move to 15. Notre Dame becomes the 15th for the ACC, Colorado becomes the 15th for the Big 10, the 4 aforementioned along with Oregon and the 2 Arizona schools are shoehorned into the Big 12, Vanderbilt drops down to a partial and the SEC adds T.C.U. and WVU.

I don't think that ever happens but you would have a P4 of 60 schools plus a partial. The SEC takes WVU but gets T.C.U. which gives them a presence in DFW which is what they want as one of their goals, and gives them a full private to keep FOI issues down.

Big 12:
California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

ACC:
Boston College, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Wake Forest

SEC:
Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State
Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, South Carolina, West Virginia
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, T.C.U., Texas A&M
* Vanderbilt

B1G:
Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Indiana, Maryland, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers


RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - XLance - 09-25-2020 02:13 PM

(09-25-2020 11:18 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(09-25-2020 09:36 AM)Thiefery Wrote:  
(09-25-2020 04:50 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(09-23-2020 02:40 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(09-23-2020 01:31 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Inventory management is a great word for it. The networks want to concentrate the big brands into fewer conferences to cut down on their total payouts.

I don’t see the COVID debacle permanently hurting the Big Ten but the PAC 12 is a declining property and I think this year will hasten that decline. The question is will they hold tight and decline together or will their more valuable members seek independence or membership in another conference to keep competing at a high level.

Some other conference has to want the Pac-12 members. On paper, UCLA, USC, Cal, and or Stanford would be valuable. Maybe they would be as football only. Try asking the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, or (gasp) ACC women's volleyball teams to LA or San Fran for games. Geographically maybe Colorado and/or the Arizona schools get a look. The California schools will be in play because California is California. Oregon has good football and that will be a factor but the geography is terrible. Washington's football isn't as good as Oregon and geography's worse than Oregon although Seattle is a bigger market than Portland.

Why?
After what we have seen this year.....nobody wants to deal with PAC schools or travel to the west coast.

AZ, UT probably are the most enticing for the Big12.. think SC goes independent before it thinks about the Big12 (although it could get a monster deal for it's tier3)

When you look a the metrics there are 4 PAC 12 schools that add to the bottom line of the Big 12: Stanford, Washington, U.C.L.A., and U.S.C. Arizona Sate has he better program numbers and Arizona the better academics, but both are among the most subsidized of the P5. Utah's athletic department has run into some significant red ink issues. Snatching the L.A. schools would definitely help, but probably isn't likely as a pair. U.S.C. could make the jump, but U.C.L.A. as a California state school would probably have oodles of red tape preventing them. And I doubt U.S.C. will come by themselves, but it at least is possible.

So if I'm the Big 12 I would concentrate on U.S.C., test the waters on Stanford and keep B.Y.U. as a back up. I get the issues with B.Y.U. but they add content value, some national appeal, add to the attendance average, and are well funded.

If I am the Big 12, I'm spending all of my time trying to convince Oklahoma to join up with ESPN. Then I will rely on the Mouse to help me.
Some possibilities may involve moving a few schools round to produce better penetration in some markets while providing stability for the Big 12.


RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - XLance - 09-25-2020 02:21 PM

(09-25-2020 11:47 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(09-25-2020 11:18 AM)JRsec Wrote:  When you look a the metrics there are 4 PAC 12 schools that add to the bottom line of the Big 12: Stanford, Washington, U.C.L.A., and U.S.C. Arizona Sate has he better program numbers and Arizona the better academics, but both are among the most subsidized of the P5. Utah's athletic department has run into some significant red ink issues. Snatching the L.A. schools would definitely help, but probably isn't likely as a pair. U.S.C. could make the jump, but U.C.L.A. as a California state school would probably have oodles of red tape preventing them. And I doubt U.S.C. will come by themselves, but it at least is possible.

So if I'm the Big 12 I would concentrate on U.S.C., test the waters on Stanford and keep B.Y.U. as a back up. I get the issues with B.Y.U. but they add content value, some national appeal, add to the attendance average, and are well funded.

I have to think if ESPN is going to bankroll a change like that, they would also find a new home for WVU (they would prefer ACC but would agree to SEC). In that case the Big XII adds an odd number of teams - either 3 or 5. USC and Stanford are no brainers, plus one of the Arizona schools most likely. I think Washington and Oregon are also offered (but not Wash. St. or Oregon St.). Utah and Colorado are secondary targets, IMO.

The PAC and the west coast are now toxic.
None of the Americans in the central part of the US will want to have anything to do with the pacific coast. GODlessness doesn't play well in Texas and Oklahoma.


RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - RocketCitySooner - 09-25-2020 03:06 PM

(09-25-2020 02:21 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(09-25-2020 11:47 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(09-25-2020 11:18 AM)JRsec Wrote:  When you look a the metrics there are 4 PAC 12 schools that add to the bottom line of the Big 12: Stanford, Washington, U.C.L.A., and U.S.C. Arizona Sate has he better program numbers and Arizona the better academics, but both are among the most subsidized of the P5. Utah's athletic department has run into some significant red ink issues. Snatching the L.A. schools would definitely help, but probably isn't likely as a pair. U.S.C. could make the jump, but U.C.L.A. as a California state school would probably have oodles of red tape preventing them. And I doubt U.S.C. will come by themselves, but it at least is possible.

So if I'm the Big 12 I would concentrate on U.S.C., test the waters on Stanford and keep B.Y.U. as a back up. I get the issues with B.Y.U. but they add content value, some national appeal, add to the attendance average, and are well funded.

I have to think if ESPN is going to bankroll a change like that, they would also find a new home for WVU (they would prefer ACC but would agree to SEC). In that case the Big XII adds an odd number of teams - either 3 or 5. USC and Stanford are no brainers, plus one of the Arizona schools most likely. I think Washington and Oregon are also offered (but not Wash. St. or Oregon St.). Utah and Colorado are secondary targets, IMO.

The PAC and the west coast are now toxic.
None of the Americans in the central part of the US will want to have anything to do with the pacific coast. GODlessness doesn't play well in Texas and Oklahoma.

Now toxic? Some of us have been saying for a couple of years that the California/West Coast schools are toxic. Glad to see more people are recognizing this. I only wish one very prolific poster on another board would recognize the toxicity of the west coast.


RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - TerryD - 09-26-2020 12:14 AM

(08-30-2020 01:24 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(08-29-2020 07:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-29-2020 07:09 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(08-29-2020 05:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-25-2020 10:04 AM)schmolik Wrote:  OK let's go really fantasy here. The SEC can take anyone they want from any conference (Notre Dame included). Who's on their wish list? Assume no baggage required (Texas won't require Texas Tech, Oklahoma won't require Oklahoma State, etc). How many teams would they take? How about Oklahoma, Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, and Notre Dame? If the SEC could get all six of them, would they still want to get Clemson and Florida State if they could get them too? Those are the three Big 12 properties in which ESPN would be most interested to have 100% of the rights.

They would go to 16 with Texas, Oklahoma, and Florida State.

Fixed it for you, Bullet. FSU is right on up there with Texas and Oklahoma. Clemson will only be taken if UofSC can't schedule Clemson OOC anymore.

ESPN wants to play happy family with the SEC and ACC. They will not permit the SEC to take from the ACC. Should Vanderbilt ever decide to become a partial or step down the SEC could easily move to 16 full members again with Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas with the Jayhawks coming in for a Kentucky rival. ESPN would be most interested in acquiring the rights to those three brands. So Bullet is correct the two top preferences are Texas and Oklahoma to 16. Vanderbilt is the only SEC school that might waffle on pay for play. So if they seek less of a role to play Kansas is the next choice, IMO.

For the time being JR ,(I really hate this new update to my phone!!)but once pay for play goes through, I'm thinking it's going to be like the Old Wild West when it comes to sports rights when the ACC's grant of rights expires. New content companies will challenge ESPN for sports rights and I am sure that the SEC will listen, whether or not the Mouse likes it. If the SEC grabs both Oklahoma & Texas, the Big Ten will calmly bide their time until the ACC GOR is up. If ESPN is wise, they will steer either Oklahoma or Texas to the Big Ten, and not let the SEC take both or ESPN will be looking at a Pandora's Box in the future!!

(09-18-2020 07:05 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:21 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 04:50 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(09-13-2020 09:22 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(09-11-2020 12:57 AM)bullet Wrote:  Oddly, the first college sports event I attended was a baseball game. Way, way back in the 60s when I was a kid I went to a UK-LSU game in Lexington.

Same for me. Used to go to Alabama baseball games as a kid on occasion. I was in high school before I ever went to a football or basketball game.

The recent growth of youth "Travel Baseball" has been huge.
When municipalities almost killed youth baseball when they instituted participation baseball.......every kid that wanted to play made some team.
Youth soccer was king here in Greensboro.
When I was coaching baseball, there were several years when 1/3 of my team would miss games to try out for a soccer team. It didn't make for good relations with their parents, who seemed to have an odd understanding of commitment.
Now the shoe is on the other foot. Travel ball plays in the spring and fall......and the better athletes are now playing baseball on a scale not seen since late '50 and early '60s.
Complexes are being built, tournaments are being held, youth baseball is attracting great athletes, which in turn is attracting attention to the college game.
https://www.ripkenbaseball.com/myrtle-beach-facilities
https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1AOHY_enUS715US716&source=univ&tbm=isch&q=cal+ripken+experience+pictures&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi2_9DDrujrAhWkuVkKHehEAWQQsAR6BAgKEAE&biw=1137&bih=754

Baseball and women's softball are the next "big thing" in collegiate athletic television broadcasting.

And moving the season would help draw attention.

Not having to compete with March Madness or the latter schedules of Winter sports should help baseball and softball with ratings and attendance.

The shrinking of the minor leagues is going to help too. More quality ball players in the college ranks and fewer communities with a local team to watch.

https://www.axios.com/minor-league-baseball-contraction-affiliate-status-c982331a-ae6a-4f5f-8eca-b902eb2c153a.html

This is the perfect opportunity for collegiate baseball to fill in the gap created by the shrinking minor league systems.
The down side would be the eventual elimination of collegiate summer league baseball whose seasons are already shortened to no more than 6-8 weeks.
If the trend continues for first semester exams to be over by Thanksgiving, the College calendars will kill off those leagues by themselves because students will have to return to campus earlier in August.

The Appy League is being converted to a wooden bat collegiate summer league.

The official announcement will be made next Tuesday.

I am pissed as a Pirates fan who moved an hour and half away from Bristol (home of the BriBucs), but happy as a baseball fan that the league is not being totally shitcanned.



"The Appalachian League isn’t going away, it’s just going to have a different look.

Major League Baseball and USA Baseball will hold a joint video news conference Tuesday to announce a new format for the league. The plan calls for the nation’s top rising college freshmen and sophomores to take part in wooden-bat play.

MLB and USA Baseball will be in communication with the NCAA to ensure athlete eligibility requirements are met."



https://www.timesnews.net/sports/appy-league-to-return-as-collegiate-wooden-bat-league/article_192bd5f8-ff79-11ea-a717-53b2b52b90af.html


RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - XLance - 09-26-2020 08:36 AM

(09-26-2020 12:14 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(08-30-2020 01:24 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(08-29-2020 07:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-29-2020 07:09 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(08-29-2020 05:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  They would go to 16 with Texas, Oklahoma, and Florida State.

Fixed it for you, Bullet. FSU is right on up there with Texas and Oklahoma. Clemson will only be taken if UofSC can't schedule Clemson OOC anymore.

ESPN wants to play happy family with the SEC and ACC. They will not permit the SEC to take from the ACC. Should Vanderbilt ever decide to become a partial or step down the SEC could easily move to 16 full members again with Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas with the Jayhawks coming in for a Kentucky rival. ESPN would be most interested in acquiring the rights to those three brands. So Bullet is correct the two top preferences are Texas and Oklahoma to 16. Vanderbilt is the only SEC school that might waffle on pay for play. So if they seek less of a role to play Kansas is the next choice, IMO.

For the time being JR ,(I really hate this new update to my phone!!)but once pay for play goes through, I'm thinking it's going to be like the Old Wild West when it comes to sports rights when the ACC's grant of rights expires. New content companies will challenge ESPN for sports rights and I am sure that the SEC will listen, whether or not the Mouse likes it. If the SEC grabs both Oklahoma & Texas, the Big Ten will calmly bide their time until the ACC GOR is up. If ESPN is wise, they will steer either Oklahoma or Texas to the Big Ten, and not let the SEC take both or ESPN will be looking at a Pandora's Box in the future!!

(09-18-2020 07:05 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:21 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 04:50 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(09-13-2020 09:22 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Same for me. Used to go to Alabama baseball games as a kid on occasion. I was in high school before I ever went to a football or basketball game.

The recent growth of youth "Travel Baseball" has been huge.
When municipalities almost killed youth baseball when they instituted participation baseball.......every kid that wanted to play made some team.
Youth soccer was king here in Greensboro.
When I was coaching baseball, there were several years when 1/3 of my team would miss games to try out for a soccer team. It didn't make for good relations with their parents, who seemed to have an odd understanding of commitment.
Now the shoe is on the other foot. Travel ball plays in the spring and fall......and the better athletes are now playing baseball on a scale not seen since late '50 and early '60s.
Complexes are being built, tournaments are being held, youth baseball is attracting great athletes, which in turn is attracting attention to the college game.
https://www.ripkenbaseball.com/myrtle-beach-facilities
https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1AOHY_enUS715US716&source=univ&tbm=isch&q=cal+ripken+experience+pictures&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi2_9DDrujrAhWkuVkKHehEAWQQsAR6BAgKEAE&biw=1137&bih=754

Baseball and women's softball are the next "big thing" in collegiate athletic television broadcasting.

And moving the season would help draw attention.

Not having to compete with March Madness or the latter schedules of Winter sports should help baseball and softball with ratings and attendance.

The shrinking of the minor leagues is going to help too. More quality ball players in the college ranks and fewer communities with a local team to watch.

https://www.axios.com/minor-league-baseball-contraction-affiliate-status-c982331a-ae6a-4f5f-8eca-b902eb2c153a.html

This is the perfect opportunity for collegiate baseball to fill in the gap created by the shrinking minor league systems.
The down side would be the eventual elimination of collegiate summer league baseball whose seasons are already shortened to no more than 6-8 weeks.
If the trend continues for first semester exams to be over by Thanksgiving, the College calendars will kill off those leagues by themselves because students will have to return to campus earlier in August.

The Appy League is being converted to a wooden bat collegiate summer league.

The official announcement will be made next Tuesday.

I am pissed as a Pirates fan who moved an hour and half away from Bristol (home of the BriBucs), but happy as a baseball fan that the league is not being totally shitcanned.



"The Appalachian League isn’t going away, it’s just going to have a different look.

Major League Baseball and USA Baseball will hold a joint video news conference Tuesday to announce a new format for the league. The plan calls for the nation’s top rising college freshmen and sophomores to take part in wooden-bat play.

MLB and USA Baseball will be in communication with the NCAA to ensure athlete eligibility requirements are met."



https://www.timesnews.net/sports/appy-league-to-return-as-collegiate-wooden-bat-league/article_192bd5f8-ff79-11ea-a717-53b2b52b90af.html

Terry, you should be able to get to Greensboro in under two hours to be able to see the Pirate's class A team play in a stadium that could easily pass for a AA or AAA facility.
I'll even buy you a Grasshopper's hat and several local beers (I am partial to Red Oak https://www.redoakbrewery.com/).


RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - TerryD - 09-26-2020 08:59 AM

(08-30-2020 01:24 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(08-29-2020 07:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-29-2020 07:09 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(08-29-2020 05:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-25-2020 10:04 AM)schmolik Wrote:  OK let's go really fantasy here. The SEC can take anyone they want from any conference (Notre Dame included). Who's on their wish list? Assume no baggage required (Texas won't require Texas Tech, Oklahoma won't require Oklahoma State, etc). How many teams would they take? How about Oklahoma, Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, and Notre Dame? If the SEC could get all six of them, would they still want to get Clemson and Florida State if they could get them too? Those are the three Big 12 properties in which ESPN would be most interested to have 100% of the rights.

They would go to 16 with Texas, Oklahoma, and Florida State.

Fixed it for you, Bullet. FSU is right on up there with Texas and Oklahoma. Clemson will only be taken if UofSC can't schedule Clemson OOC anymore.

ESPN wants to play happy family with the SEC and ACC. They will not permit the SEC to take from the ACC. Should Vanderbilt ever decide to become a partial or step down the SEC could easily move to 16 full members again with Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas with the Jayhawks coming in for a Kentucky rival. ESPN would be most interested in acquiring the rights to those three brands. So Bullet is correct the two top preferences are Texas and Oklahoma to 16. Vanderbilt is the only SEC school that might waffle on pay for play. So if they seek less of a role to play Kansas is the next choice, IMO.

For the time being JR ,(I really hate this new update to my phone!!)but once pay for play goes through, I'm thinking it's going to be like the Old Wild West when it comes to sports rights when the ACC's grant of rights expires. New content companies will challenge ESPN for sports rights and I am sure that the SEC will listen, whether or not the Mouse likes it. If the SEC grabs both Oklahoma & Texas, the Big Ten will calmly bide their time until the ACC GOR is up. If ESPN is wise, they will steer either Oklahoma or Texas to the Big Ten, and not let the SEC take both or ESPN will be looking at a Pandora's Box in the future!!

(09-26-2020 08:36 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(09-26-2020 12:14 AM)TerryD Wrote:  
(08-30-2020 01:24 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(08-29-2020 07:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-29-2020 07:09 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  Fixed it for you, Bullet. FSU is right on up there with Texas and Oklahoma. Clemson will only be taken if UofSC can't schedule Clemson OOC anymore.

ESPN wants to play happy family with the SEC and ACC. They will not permit the SEC to take from the ACC. Should Vanderbilt ever decide to become a partial or step down the SEC could easily move to 16 full members again with Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas with the Jayhawks coming in for a Kentucky rival. ESPN would be most interested in acquiring the rights to those three brands. So Bullet is correct the two top preferences are Texas and Oklahoma to 16. Vanderbilt is the only SEC school that might waffle on pay for play. So if they seek less of a role to play Kansas is the next choice, IMO.

For the time being JR ,(I really hate this new update to my phone!!)but once pay for play goes through, I'm thinking it's going to be like the Old Wild West when it comes to sports rights when the ACC's grant of rights expires. New content companies will challenge ESPN for sports rights and I am sure that the SEC will listen, whether or not the Mouse likes it. If the SEC grabs both Oklahoma & Texas, the Big Ten will calmly bide their time until the ACC GOR is up. If ESPN is wise, they will steer either Oklahoma or Texas to the Big Ten, and not let the SEC take both or ESPN will be looking at a Pandora's Box in the future!!

(09-18-2020 07:05 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(09-15-2020 03:21 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(09-14-2020 04:50 AM)XLance Wrote:  The recent growth of youth "Travel Baseball" has been huge.
When municipalities almost killed youth baseball when they instituted participation baseball.......every kid that wanted to play made some team.
Youth soccer was king here in Greensboro.
When I was coaching baseball, there were several years when 1/3 of my team would miss games to try out for a soccer team. It didn't make for good relations with their parents, who seemed to have an odd understanding of commitment.
Now the shoe is on the other foot. Travel ball plays in the spring and fall......and the better athletes are now playing baseball on a scale not seen since late '50 and early '60s.
Complexes are being built, tournaments are being held, youth baseball is attracting great athletes, which in turn is attracting attention to the college game.
https://www.ripkenbaseball.com/myrtle-beach-facilities
https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1AOHY_enUS715US716&source=univ&tbm=isch&q=cal+ripken+experience+pictures&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi2_9DDrujrAhWkuVkKHehEAWQQsAR6BAgKEAE&biw=1137&bih=754

Baseball and women's softball are the next "big thing" in collegiate athletic television broadcasting.

And moving the season would help draw attention.

Not having to compete with March Madness or the latter schedules of Winter sports should help baseball and softball with ratings and attendance.

The shrinking of the minor leagues is going to help too. More quality ball players in the college ranks and fewer communities with a local team to watch.

https://www.axios.com/minor-league-baseball-contraction-affiliate-status-c982331a-ae6a-4f5f-8eca-b902eb2c153a.html

This is the perfect opportunity for collegiate baseball to fill in the gap created by the shrinking minor league systems.
The down side would be the eventual elimination of collegiate summer league baseball whose seasons are already shortened to no more than 6-8 weeks.
If the trend continues for first semester exams to be over by Thanksgiving, the College calendars will kill off those leagues by themselves because students will have to return to campus earlier in August.

The Appy League is being converted to a wooden bat collegiate summer league.

The official announcement will be made next Tuesday.

I am pissed as a Pirates fan who moved an hour and half away from Bristol (home of the BriBucs), but happy as a baseball fan that the league is not being totally shitcanned.



"The Appalachian League isn’t going away, it’s just going to have a different look.

Major League Baseball and USA Baseball will hold a joint video news conference Tuesday to announce a new format for the league. The plan calls for the nation’s top rising college freshmen and sophomores to take part in wooden-bat play.

MLB and USA Baseball will be in communication with the NCAA to ensure athlete eligibility requirements are met."



https://www.timesnews.net/sports/appy-league-to-return-as-collegiate-wooden-bat-league/article_192bd5f8-ff79-11ea-a717-53b2b52b90af.html

Terry, you should be able to get to Greensboro in under two hours to be able to see the Pirate's class A team play in a stadium that could easily pass for a AA or AAA facility.
I'll even buy you a Grasshopper's hat and several local beers (I am partial to Red Oak https://www.redoakbrewery.com/).

I have attended Grasshoppers games in 2018 and 2019.

Its a two and a half hour drive. Greensboro has a beautiful stadium.

I am greedy, though.

When I moved here, I was happy to see one Pirates affiliate one and half hours away at Bristol and another two and a half hours away in Greensboro.

Now, the greedy MLB bastards took one away.

The mega millions they were making was not enough, apparently.

The ba$tards. They just took away minor league ball from a whole lot of towns.


RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - XLance - 09-28-2020 04:54 AM

(09-25-2020 03:06 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  
(09-25-2020 02:21 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(09-25-2020 11:47 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(09-25-2020 11:18 AM)JRsec Wrote:  When you look a the metrics there are 4 PAC 12 schools that add to the bottom line of the Big 12: Stanford, Washington, U.C.L.A., and U.S.C. Arizona Sate has he better program numbers and Arizona the better academics, but both are among the most subsidized of the P5. Utah's athletic department has run into some significant red ink issues. Snatching the L.A. schools would definitely help, but probably isn't likely as a pair. U.S.C. could make the jump, but U.C.L.A. as a California state school would probably have oodles of red tape preventing them. And I doubt U.S.C. will come by themselves, but it at least is possible.

So if I'm the Big 12 I would concentrate on U.S.C., test the waters on Stanford and keep B.Y.U. as a back up. I get the issues with B.Y.U. but they add content value, some national appeal, add to the attendance average, and are well funded.

I have to think if ESPN is going to bankroll a change like that, they would also find a new home for WVU (they would prefer ACC but would agree to SEC). In that case the Big XII adds an odd number of teams - either 3 or 5. USC and Stanford are no brainers, plus one of the Arizona schools most likely. I think Washington and Oregon are also offered (but not Wash. St. or Oregon St.). Utah and Colorado are secondary targets, IMO.

The PAC and the west coast are now toxic.
None of the Americans in the central part of the US will want to have anything to do with the pacific coast. GODlessness doesn't play well in Texas and Oklahoma.

Now toxic? Some of us have been saying for a couple of years that the California/West Coast schools are toxic. Glad to see more people are recognizing this. I only wish one very prolific poster on another board would recognize the toxicity of the west coast.

The voice of reason from an Oklahoma fan living in Alabama.
The only PAC school I see moving east would be Colorado, rejoining the Big 12.
Southern Cal may make some noises, but to join a conference as a single entity two time zones away just won't work.
Plus.......USC chose Carol Folt as their President who is as woke as she could be. I don't see the folks that chose her to abandon their focus and adopt a Texas/Oklahoma mindset.

Yes the only way anything could/would take place would be if it were bankrolled by ESPN.


RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - TerryD - 09-28-2020 09:50 AM

(08-30-2020 01:24 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(08-29-2020 07:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-29-2020 07:09 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(08-29-2020 05:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-25-2020 10:04 AM)schmolik Wrote:  OK let's go really fantasy here. The SEC can take anyone they want from any conference (Notre Dame included). Who's on their wish list? Assume no baggage required (Texas won't require Texas Tech, Oklahoma won't require Oklahoma State, etc). How many teams would they take? How about Oklahoma, Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, and Notre Dame? If the SEC could get all six of them, would they still want to get Clemson and Florida State if they could get them too? Those are the three Big 12 properties in which ESPN would be most interested to have 100% of the rights.

They would go to 16 with Texas, Oklahoma, and Florida State.

Fixed it for you, Bullet. FSU is right on up there with Texas and Oklahoma. Clemson will only be taken if UofSC can't schedule Clemson OOC anymore.

ESPN wants to play happy family with the SEC and ACC. They will not permit the SEC to take from the ACC. Should Vanderbilt ever decide to become a partial or step down the SEC could easily move to 16 full members again with Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas with the Jayhawks coming in for a Kentucky rival. ESPN would be most interested in acquiring the rights to those three brands. So Bullet is correct the two top preferences are Texas and Oklahoma to 16. Vanderbilt is the only SEC school that might waffle on pay for play. So if they seek less of a role to play Kansas is the next choice, IMO.

For the time being JR ,(I really hate this new update to my phone!!)but once pay for play goes through, I'm thinking it's going to be like the Old Wild West when it comes to sports rights when the ACC's grant of rights expires. New content companies will challenge ESPN for sports rights and I am sure that the SEC will listen, whether or not the Mouse likes it. If the SEC grabs both Oklahoma & Texas, the Big Ten will calmly bide their time until the ACC GOR is up. If ESPN is wise, they will steer either Oklahoma or Texas to the Big Ten, and not let the SEC take both or ESPN will be looking at a Pandora's Box in the future!!

(09-28-2020 04:54 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(09-25-2020 03:06 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  
(09-25-2020 02:21 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(09-25-2020 11:47 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(09-25-2020 11:18 AM)JRsec Wrote:  When you look a the metrics there are 4 PAC 12 schools that add to the bottom line of the Big 12: Stanford, Washington, U.C.L.A., and U.S.C. Arizona Sate has he better program numbers and Arizona the better academics, but both are among the most subsidized of the P5. Utah's athletic department has run into some significant red ink issues. Snatching the L.A. schools would definitely help, but probably isn't likely as a pair. U.S.C. could make the jump, but U.C.L.A. as a California state school would probably have oodles of red tape preventing them. And I doubt U.S.C. will come by themselves, but it at least is possible.

So if I'm the Big 12 I would concentrate on U.S.C., test the waters on Stanford and keep B.Y.U. as a back up. I get the issues with B.Y.U. but they add content value, some national appeal, add to the attendance average, and are well funded.

I have to think if ESPN is going to bankroll a change like that, they would also find a new home for WVU (they would prefer ACC but would agree to SEC). In that case the Big XII adds an odd number of teams - either 3 or 5. USC and Stanford are no brainers, plus one of the Arizona schools most likely. I think Washington and Oregon are also offered (but not Wash. St. or Oregon St.). Utah and Colorado are secondary targets, IMO.

The PAC and the west coast are now toxic.
None of the Americans in the central part of the US will want to have anything to do with the pacific coast. GODlessness doesn't play well in Texas and Oklahoma.

Now toxic? Some of us have been saying for a couple of years that the California/West Coast schools are toxic. Glad to see more people are recognizing this. I only wish one very prolific poster on another board would recognize the toxicity of the west coast.

The voice of reason from an Oklahoma fan living in Alabama.
The only PAC school I see moving east would be Colorado, rejoining the Big 12.
Southern Cal may make some noises, but to join a conference as a single entity two time zones away just won't work.
Plus.......USC chose Carol Folt as their President who is as woke as she could be. I don't see the folks that chose her to abandon their focus and adopt a Texas/Oklahoma mindset.

Yes the only way anything could/would take place would be if it were bankrolled by ESPN.

This is the only thing that has mattered in conference realignment since 2010 and the only relevant thing in any realignment in the future, not whether "woke" (whatever the hell that means) or not, whether liberal or conservative, whether Pacific, Central or Eastern time zones.

If the networks will pay for a move, it will likely happen (assuming the schools want to move at all).


RE: A Sober Look at the Potential Realignment of 2024 - Thiefery - 09-28-2020 12:00 PM

I just don't want BYU in the Big 12.. we already have Baylor, TCU