Let's keep blaming Obama ... and Bush

Code:
Obama Economy Facts





Bam’s lousy economic record: Let’s just look at the facts, shall we? [1]



By Keith Hennessey



On the campaign trail, President Obama is talking about everything except his own economic record.  He attacks his predecessor — a man for whom I worked — as his advisers promise a return to Clinton-era economics.



Rather than hearing about the last two Presidents, voters may instead want the President to explain the economic realities of his own 18-month tenure and what he foresees for the next two years.  To further that understanding here are some facts.



At 9.5% [2], the unemployment rate is 1.8 percentage points higher [3] today than when the President took office.  There are 3.3 million fewer U.S. jobs [4] than there were in January 2009.  The U.S. economy has lost jobs in 12 of the 18 months [5] he has been office, including the last two months.



In early August of last year, the President declared [6] that, thanks in part to his policies, the U.S. economy was “pointed in the right direction.”  We have lost jobs in six of the 12 months since then [7], for a net decline of 52,000 jobs [8].  The 9.4% unemployment rate when he made this statement climbed to 10.1% and has since declined to 9.5% [9], still higher than it was last August.



The President signed into law an $862 billion stimulus law [10] and two health laws that will create $788 billion of new entitlements over the next decade [11].  Combine these with countless other smaller spending bills, several of which were labeled as emergencies and therefore not paid for, and the U.S. government is $2.5 trillion more in debt than on the day this President took office [12].  That’s $8,000 more debt for every American man, woman, and child [13].



Signed free trade agreements with allies Colombia [14], Panama [15], and Korea [16] have not been ratified by Congress because the President has not submitted them for approval.  For 18 months, all three have sat in his inbox.



That’s the past and present.  What, then, does the President have to offer a skeptical voter for the future?



Assuming his economic agenda is enacted into law, the Obama administration projects unemployment would average 9.0% over four years [17] of the President’s term.  If you assume he is re-elected, they project unemployment over his two terms would average 7.6% [18].



For comparison, unemployment during former President Bill Clinton’s tenure averaged 5.2% [19] and during President George W. Bush’s tenure it averaged 5.3% [19].  Former President Jimmy Carter’s unemployment rate averaged 6.5% [19].



Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner says the President is returning America to “the pro-growth tax and fiscal policies [20]” of the Clinton administration.  Yet the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates this administration would have the federal government spend more than 24% of the overall U.S. economy over his term [21], a government 25% larger than during the Clinton era [22].  Budget deficits would average 8.7% of the U.S. economy [23], compared to Clinton’s average 0.4% surplus [24].



The President proposes more government spending, higher tax rates and more debt [25] than his Democratic predecessor.



If Americans had devoted all their income from the beginning of 2009 to June 8 [26] of that year, they could have paid off the government debt inherited by this President from all his predecessors.  Under the President’s policies, if they were to try this in 2013, they’d have to work until Sept. 24 9 [27] .



While attention focused on taxpayer funds invested in big Wall Street banks, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac cost taxpayers $291 billion last year and will cost an additional $98 billion over the next decade [28].  The new financial reform law does not address these two firms, which continue to cost taxpayers about $2 billion each month [28].



If the President has his way, on Jan. 1, taxes on many successful small business owners will rise [29].  Investors will pay higher taxes on their capital gains and dividends [30], and some small businesses and family farms will once again be subject to death taxes [31].  This isn’t undoing tax cuts for the rich, it’s raising taxes on small businesses.



Tanning salons [32] and tobacco [33] are not the only new taxes Americans will face.  Drug companies [34], health plans [35] and medical device manufacturers [36] will charge higher prices as they pass new taxes on to their customers.  Health Savings Accounts will no longer be usable for tax-free purchases of over-the-counter medications [37].  Some workers will pay higher Medicare taxes [38], and some investors will pay a new 2.9% 3.8% tax [39].



Individuals and families who cannot afford health insurance will face a new tax [40], as will employers who cannot afford to provide their employees with health insurance [41].  The President proposes to tax charitable contributions for high-income donors [42], American firms competing with foreign firms overseas [43], and, indirectly, your electric bill [44].



These facts may explain why President Obama wants to talk about somebody else.





Backup and Sources



    * Bureau of Labor Statistics. [45]

    * Bureau of Labor Statistics. [45]

    * Bureau of Labor Statistics [46].  (Select More Formatting Options, then choose “Original Data Value” and Retrieve Data.

    * Bureau of Labor Statistics [47].

    * Presidential Rose Garden statement [48], August 7, 2009.

    * Bureau of Labor Statistics [47].

    * Bureau of Labor Statistics [46].  (Select More Formatting Options, then choose “Original Data Value” and Retrieve Data.)

    * Bureau of Labor Statistics. [45]

    * The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020, Appendix A [49].

    * Score of H.R. 4872 in a letter to Speaker Pelosi, Table 1 on page 5 [50].

    * TreasuryDirect. [51]

    * Census. [52]

    * U.S. Trade Representative. [53]

    * U.S. Trade Representative. [54]

    * U.S. Trade Representative. [55]

    * Mid-Session Review, Fiscal Year 2011 [56], Table 2 on page 9.

    * Mid-Session Review, Fiscal Year 2011 [56], Table 2 on page 9.

    * Bureau of Labor Statistics. [45]

    * Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner [57], Remarks as prepared for delivery at the Center for American Progress, August 4, 2010.

    * An Analysis of the President’s Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 2011, Table 1-2 on page 5 [58].

    * Comparing Obama Economics to Clinton economics [59].  Note this table shows a lower average for President Obama’s average spending because it uses the Administration’s more optimistic OMB projections.  For an apples-to-apples comparison here I’m using CBO numbers.

    * An Analysis of the President’s Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 2011, Table 1-2 on page 5 [58].

    * Comparing Obama Economics to Clinton economics [59], which uses data from OMB’s Historical Table 1.2. [60]

    * Comparing Obama Economics to Clinton economics [59].  Revenues/GDP are projected to be lower during President Obama’s term because of the weak economy, but beginning in 2013 the top income tax rate will be higher than during the Clinton Administration.

    * TreasuryDirect [51] and Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis. [61]

    * I made an error here – it should be September 9th rather than September 24th.  CBO projects debt held by the public at the end of CY 2012 = 11.579 T and projects 2013 GDP = 16.676 T.  Therefore debt / GDP = 69.44%, getting to September 9, 2013.

    * CBO’s Budgetary Treatment of Treatment of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac [62] (January 2010), Table 2 on page 8.

    * General Explanations of the Administration’s Fiscal Year 2011 Revenue Proposals [63], pp. 127-128.

    * Green Book [63],” p. 131.

    * Green Book [63],” p. i footnote 1.

    * Public Law 111-148 (H.R. 3590) [64], “Imposition of tax on indoor tanning services.”

    * Public Law 111-3 (H.R. 2) [65], “Increase in excise tax rate on tobacco products.”

    * Public Law 111-148 (H.R. 3590) [64], “Imposition of annual fee on branded prescription pharmaceutical manufacturers and importers.”

    * Public Law 111-148 (H.R. 3590) [64], “Imposition of annual fee on health insurance providers.”

    * Public Law 111-148 (H.R. 3590) [64], “Imposition of annual fee on medical device manufacturers and importers.”

    * Public Law 111-148 (H.R. 3590) [64], “Distributions for medicine qualified only if for prescribed drug or insulin.”

    * Public Law 111-148 (H.R. 3590) [64], “Additional hospital insurance tax on high-income taxpayers.”

    * Public Law 111-152 (H.R. 4872) [66], “Unearned income Medicare contribution.”

    * Public Law 111-148 (H.R. 3590) [64], “Shared Responsibility Payment” and “Amount of penalty.”

    * Public Law 111-148 (H.R. 3590) [64], “Shared responsibility for employers.”

    * Green Book [63],” p. 129.

    * Green Book [63],” throughout pp. 39-49.

    * The President’s Budget, FY 2011, Table S-2 [67], footnote 3 on p. 4.