(11-03-2013 01:25 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 01:04 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Baylor will jump Ohio State if they win their upcoming games.
Oregon will stay ahead of Florida State if they win out as well.

The real question will be whether or not Baylor jumps Florida State.

If Oregon loses and Baylor runs through their upcoming schedule then what about Baylor jumping into the second spot? Definitely possible.

I just don't see it. I don't see the poll voters giving Baylor any respect. I see a lot of poll voters in that scenario having 1 Alabama, 2 FSU, 3 Ohio St, 4 Baylor.

Coaches give them more respect than the writers. The coaches poll is very flawed, but the writers are idiots.

Baylor right now is 267 votes behind in Harris and 127 votes back in the coaches. Those are huge gaps. I just don't see poll voters if 2/3 of Alabama, Oregon, FSU win out allowing Baylor or Ohio St to crash the party.

And bit- Miami already played Florida and beat them. Not sure what you are talking about there.

LOL this is funny and pathetic at the same time. A number of schools that could be the best but only 2 will have a chance.

(11-03-2013 05:38 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  LOL this is funny and pathetic at the same time. A number of schools that could be the best but only 2 will have a chance.

yeah the way this is shaping up would be a perfect scenario for next year. Would love Alabama/Baylor or Ohio St and Oregon/FSU.

I wonder if Baylor loses if you see Swofford/Delaney try to get the playoff somehow this year. I don't know how you would do it but man it'd be great.

(11-03-2013 04:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Baylor right now is 267 votes behind in Harris and 127 votes back in the coaches. Those are huge gaps. I just don't see poll voters if 2/3 of Alabama, Oregon, FSU win out allowing Baylor or Ohio St to crash the party.

And bit- Miami already played Florida and beat them. Not sure what you are talking about there.

I got mixed up. FSU plays Florida at the end of the season, not Miami.

However, if - by some miracle - Florida upsets FSU, all bets go out the window.

(11-03-2013 06:14 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 04:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Baylor right now is 267 votes behind in Harris and 127 votes back in the coaches. Those are huge gaps. I just don't see poll voters if 2/3 of Alabama, Oregon, FSU win out allowing Baylor or Ohio St to crash the party.

And bit- Miami already played Florida and beat them. Not sure what you are talking about there.

I got mixed up. FSU plays Florida at the end of the season, not Miami.

However, if - by some miracle - Florida upsets FSU, all bets go out the window.

if Florida upsets FSU and Oregon has lost, it's a battle with Ohio St and Baylor, with Baylor to me having the upper hand.

(11-03-2013 06:14 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 04:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Baylor right now is 267 votes behind in Harris and 127 votes back in the coaches. Those are huge gaps. I just don't see poll voters if 2/3 of Alabama, Oregon, FSU win out allowing Baylor or Ohio St to crash the party.

And bit- Miami already played Florida and beat them. Not sure what you are talking about there.

I got mixed up. FSU plays Florida at the end of the season, not Miami.

However, if - by some miracle - Florida upsets FSU, all bets go out the window.

Actually, FSU will play Miami again in the ACC championship in Charlotte unless Miami finds a way to lose to VT AND Duke. I know nothing is impossible, but the chances of Miami losing to a team that can't score as well as to Duke is mind-boggling. Miami should be 11-1 and ranked about 10th-12th when they meet in December, if Miami losses one to VT or Duke, they would be 10-2 and ranked about 15th-18th.

My money is also on ASU in the Pac 12 South, and Oregon should beat Stanford, setting up an ASU/Oregon match for the P12 championship.

(11-03-2013 06:43 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 06:14 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 04:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Baylor right now is 267 votes behind in Harris and 127 votes back in the coaches. Those are huge gaps. I just don't see poll voters if 2/3 of Alabama, Oregon, FSU win out allowing Baylor or Ohio St to crash the party.

And bit- Miami already played Florida and beat them. Not sure what you are talking about there.

I got mixed up. FSU plays Florida at the end of the season, not Miami.

However, if - by some miracle - Florida upsets FSU, all bets go out the window.

Actually, FSU will play Miami again in the ACC championship in Charlotte unless Miami finds a way to lose to VT AND Duke. I know nothing is impossible, but the chances of Miami losing to a team that can't score as well as to Duke is mind-boggling. Miami should be 11-1 and ranked about 10th-12th when they meet in December, if Miami losses one to VT or Duke, they would be 10-2 and ranked about 15th-18th.

My money is also on ASU in the Pac 12 South, and Oregon should beat Stanford, setting up an ASU/Oregon match for the P12 championship.

um, actually if Miami loses to VT, and VT wins out(vs Maryand and Virginia)- no matter what Miami does VT is the champ- best case Miami is 6-2, but to do that, they have to beat Duke) Head to head takes over... Similarly if Miami lost to Duke, and Duke wins out, Duke would have the head to head tiebreaker as long as Clemson beats Georgia Tech.

(11-03-2013 06:43 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 06:14 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 04:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Baylor right now is 267 votes behind in Harris and 127 votes back in the coaches. Those are huge gaps. I just don't see poll voters if 2/3 of Alabama, Oregon, FSU win out allowing Baylor or Ohio St to crash the party.

And bit- Miami already played Florida and beat them. Not sure what you are talking about there.

I got mixed up. FSU plays Florida at the end of the season, not Miami.

However, if - by some miracle - Florida upsets FSU, all bets go out the window.

Actually, FSU will play Miami again in the ACC championship in Charlotte unless Miami finds a way to lose to VT AND Duke. I know nothing is impossible, but the chances of Miami losing to a team that can't score as well as to Duke is mind-boggling. Miami should be 11-1 and ranked about 10th-12th when they meet in December, if Miami losses one to VT or Duke, they would be 10-2 and ranked about 15th-18th.

My money is also on ASU in the Pac 12 South, and Oregon should beat Stanford, setting up an ASU/Oregon match for the P12 championship.

You root for the ACC and didn't see any of Miami vs. UNC or Wake Forest? Miami can lose to anyone and probably will find a way to lose one of their last 4.

(11-03-2013 06:43 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 06:14 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 04:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Baylor right now is 267 votes behind in Harris and 127 votes back in the coaches. Those are huge gaps. I just don't see poll voters if 2/3 of Alabama, Oregon, FSU win out allowing Baylor or Ohio St to crash the party.

And bit- Miami already played Florida and beat them. Not sure what you are talking about there.

I got mixed up. FSU plays Florida at the end of the season, not Miami.

However, if - by some miracle - Florida upsets FSU, all bets go out the window.

Actually, FSU will play Miami again in the ACC championship in Charlotte unless Miami finds a way to lose to VT AND Duke. I know nothing is impossible, but the chances of Miami losing to a team that can't score as well as to Duke is mind-boggling. Miami should be 11-1 and ranked about 10th-12th when they meet in December, if Miami losses one to VT or Duke, they would be 10-2 and ranked about 15th-18th.

My money is also on ASU in the Pac 12 South, and Oregon should beat Stanford, setting up an ASU/Oregon match for the P12 championship.

Miami would only have to lose to VT, not both VT and Duke. That would give both schools 2 conference losses, with VT winning head to head, giving the Hokies the tie breaker. The Hokies also have the head to head tie breaker on GT, which eliminates any 3 way scenario.

(11-03-2013 07:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 06:43 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 06:14 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 04:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Baylor right now is 267 votes behind in Harris and 127 votes back in the coaches. Those are huge gaps. I just don't see poll voters if 2/3 of Alabama, Oregon, FSU win out allowing Baylor or Ohio St to crash the party.

And bit- Miami already played Florida and beat them. Not sure what you are talking about there.

I got mixed up. FSU plays Florida at the end of the season, not Miami.

However, if - by some miracle - Florida upsets FSU, all bets go out the window.

Actually, FSU will play Miami again in the ACC championship in Charlotte unless Miami finds a way to lose to VT AND Duke. I know nothing is impossible, but the chances of Miami losing to a team that can't score as well as to Duke is mind-boggling. Miami should be 11-1 and ranked about 10th-12th when they meet in December, if Miami losses one to VT or Duke, they would be 10-2 and ranked about 15th-18th.

My money is also on ASU in the Pac 12 South, and Oregon should beat Stanford, setting up an ASU/Oregon match for the P12 championship.

You root for the ACC and didn't see any of Miami vs. UNC or Wake Forest? Miami can lose to anyone and probably will find a way to lose one of their last 4.

I don't think VT can beat Maryland after what I saw at BC. So no, I don't see VT beating Miami, nor Maryland. VT has almost no offense.

Miami got UNC's best shot of the season, and WF had a good offensive team until the lost their best player to the collar bone break at Syracuse this week.

Against FBS teams Miami is averaging 30 points a game. VT is averaging 18. Against teams with winning records, VT is averaging 13 points and Miami is averaging 29.5. I suppose Miami could lay down, but I think they face a tougher game with Duke, than VT, because VT can barely score.

(11-03-2013 01:33 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 01:26 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Its unlikely Baylor gets to the NCG unless at least two of Alabama, Florida State, and Oregon lose. And even then, its going to be a tough pick between them and Ohio State. Their schedule doesn't match up favorably. They have some crazy blowouts on their resume. But they have beaten exactly two teams with winning records. One is Louisiana Monroe (5-4). The other is Buffalo (who is leading the MAC east - the weak MAC division). Hardly something to hang a Natl Championship Game Berth on.

it would be very easy for Baylor to jump Ohio St. You don't realize how pathetic Ohio St's schedule is. The schedule right now has 1 team that will be in the BCS top 25 this week. 1. Baylor has likely 4 as of tonight(assuming Texas gets in the top 25). While not sure about Texas Tech or Texas long term being in the top 25- they are the 3rd/4th wins on the schedule. By comparison, those would be equal to Penn St and Iowa on the Ohio St schedule. Oklahoma a better win than Wisconsin, and Oklahoma St a better win than Michigan.

What you fail to understand is that Baylor has played 6 really bad teams and WVU. Just about anything improves their SOS. And the Big 12 is done with out of conference games, so its a zero sum situation. Any losses by Big 12 teams don't hurt their Big 12 SOS.
Now some computers weight higher ranked teams heavier so there could be some negative in computer rankings, but that's marginal. Baylor's strength of schedule will go up tremendously. And they have 5 games left while Ohio St. has 3 and most schools have 4. That will work to their benefit in the computers.

As for the pollsters, Baylor plays #10 OU this week. And the others all have some respect. The same can't be said about most of their first 7 opponents. If Baylor beats those good opponents, people will start paying attention to things like them winning 70-13 over Buffalo while Ohio St. beat them 40-20.

If both go unbeaten, they will get close to FSU. Don't know if they will catch them, but its possible.

Baylor isn't competing with Ohio State though. It's FSU.

Alabama, FSU, and Oregon all have 5 games left(to include the CCG). Have to factor in that 13th game...

I just don't see Baylor getting real close at all.

(11-03-2013 07:36 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 07:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 06:43 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 06:14 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 04:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Baylor right now is 267 votes behind in Harris and 127 votes back in the coaches. Those are huge gaps. I just don't see poll voters if 2/3 of Alabama, Oregon, FSU win out allowing Baylor or Ohio St to crash the party.

And bit- Miami already played Florida and beat them. Not sure what you are talking about there.

I got mixed up. FSU plays Florida at the end of the season, not Miami.

However, if - by some miracle - Florida upsets FSU, all bets go out the window.

Actually, FSU will play Miami again in the ACC championship in Charlotte unless Miami finds a way to lose to VT AND Duke. I know nothing is impossible, but the chances of Miami losing to a team that can't score as well as to Duke is mind-boggling. Miami should be 11-1 and ranked about 10th-12th when they meet in December, if Miami losses one to VT or Duke, they would be 10-2 and ranked about 15th-18th.

My money is also on ASU in the Pac 12 South, and Oregon should beat Stanford, setting up an ASU/Oregon match for the P12 championship.

You root for the ACC and didn't see any of Miami vs. UNC or Wake Forest? Miami can lose to anyone and probably will find a way to lose one of their last 4.

I don't think VT can beat Maryland after what I saw at BC. So no, I don't see VT beating Miami, nor Maryland. VT has almost no offense.

Miami got UNC's best shot of the season, and WF had a good offensive team until the lost their best player to the collar bone break at Syracuse this week.

Against FBS teams Miami is averaging 30 points a game. VT is averaging 18. Against teams with winning records, VT is averaging 13 points and Miami is averaging 29.5. I suppose Miami could lay down, but I think they face a tougher game with Duke, than VT, because VT can barely score.

Just found out that Miami's great RB Duke Johnson broke his ankle against FSU. Miami might lay an egg now.

(11-03-2013 09:16 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 07:36 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 07:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 06:43 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 06:14 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  I got mixed up. FSU plays Florida at the end of the season, not Miami.

However, if - by some miracle - Florida upsets FSU, all bets go out the window.

Actually, FSU will play Miami again in the ACC championship in Charlotte unless Miami finds a way to lose to VT AND Duke. I know nothing is impossible, but the chances of Miami losing to a team that can't score as well as to Duke is mind-boggling. Miami should be 11-1 and ranked about 10th-12th when they meet in December, if Miami losses one to VT or Duke, they would be 10-2 and ranked about 15th-18th.

My money is also on ASU in the Pac 12 South, and Oregon should beat Stanford, setting up an ASU/Oregon match for the P12 championship.

You root for the ACC and didn't see any of Miami vs. UNC or Wake Forest? Miami can lose to anyone and probably will find a way to lose one of their last 4.

I don't think VT can beat Maryland after what I saw at BC. So no, I don't see VT beating Miami, nor Maryland. VT has almost no offense.

Miami got UNC's best shot of the season, and WF had a good offensive team until the lost their best player to the collar bone break at Syracuse this week.

Against FBS teams Miami is averaging 30 points a game. VT is averaging 18. Against teams with winning records, VT is averaging 13 points and Miami is averaging 29.5. I suppose Miami could lay down, but I think they face a tougher game with Duke, than VT, because VT can barely score.

Just found out that Miami's great RB Duke Johnson broke his ankle against FSU. Miami might lay an egg now.

Dallas Crawford is more than capable of shouldering the load. He ran for 137 yards against us and had more TD's this year than Duke.

(11-03-2013 09:03 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 01:33 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 01:26 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Its unlikely Baylor gets to the NCG unless at least two of Alabama, Florida State, and Oregon lose. And even then, its going to be a tough pick between them and Ohio State. Their schedule doesn't match up favorably. They have some crazy blowouts on their resume. But they have beaten exactly two teams with winning records. One is Louisiana Monroe (5-4). The other is Buffalo (who is leading the MAC east - the weak MAC division). Hardly something to hang a Natl Championship Game Berth on.

it would be very easy for Baylor to jump Ohio St. You don't realize how pathetic Ohio St's schedule is. The schedule right now has 1 team that will be in the BCS top 25 this week. 1. Baylor has likely 4 as of tonight(assuming Texas gets in the top 25). While not sure about Texas Tech or Texas long term being in the top 25- they are the 3rd/4th wins on the schedule. By comparison, those would be equal to Penn St and Iowa on the Ohio St schedule. Oklahoma a better win than Wisconsin, and Oklahoma St a better win than Michigan.

What you fail to understand is that Baylor has played 6 really bad teams and WVU. Just about anything improves their SOS. And the Big 12 is done with out of conference games, so its a zero sum situation. Any losses by Big 12 teams don't hurt their Big 12 SOS.
Now some computers weight higher ranked teams heavier so there could be some negative in computer rankings, but that's marginal. Baylor's strength of schedule will go up tremendously. And they have 5 games left while Ohio St. has 3 and most schools have 4. That will work to their benefit in the computers.

As for the pollsters, Baylor plays #10 OU this week. And the others all have some respect. The same can't be said about most of their first 7 opponents. If Baylor beats those good opponents, people will start paying attention to things like them winning 70-13 over Buffalo while Ohio St. beat them 40-20.

If both go unbeaten, they will get close to FSU. Don't know if they will catch them, but its possible.

So Baylor's crummy schedule somehow helps their case?...Not buying it.

Besides there is the issue of incumbency. FSU and Oregon are sitting there. Baylor has to make a case to knock them off. FSU demolished Clemson and Miami. I don't think the human voters are going to push Baylor above FSU because Baylor beats OU. Or Okla State. Or a currently unranked Texas that owns losses to a middling BYU team and a not good Ole Miss team (both by blowouts).

Then there is the Big XII tax. Texas' awful OOC schedule and subsequent strength in conference play has drug the conference down in national perception. And if Oregon beats Stanford, no way Baylor catches them either.

(11-03-2013 09:16 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Baylor isn't competing with Ohio State though. It's FSU.

Alabama, FSU, and Oregon all have 5 games left(to include the CCG). Have to factor in that 13th game...

I just don't see Baylor getting real close at all.

Baylor has ZERO chance of passing FSU, Oregon, or Alabama.

The only race right now is Oregon vs FSU for #2, and Oregon has about a 90% chance of winning that should they both remain unbeaten.

(11-03-2013 10:43 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 09:03 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 01:33 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 01:26 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Its unlikely Baylor gets to the NCG unless at least two of Alabama, Florida State, and Oregon lose. And even then, its going to be a tough pick between them and Ohio State. Their schedule doesn't match up favorably. They have some crazy blowouts on their resume. But they have beaten exactly two teams with winning records. One is Louisiana Monroe (5-4). The other is Buffalo (who is leading the MAC east - the weak MAC division). Hardly something to hang a Natl Championship Game Berth on.

it would be very easy for Baylor to jump Ohio St. You don't realize how pathetic Ohio St's schedule is. The schedule right now has 1 team that will be in the BCS top 25 this week. 1. Baylor has likely 4 as of tonight(assuming Texas gets in the top 25). While not sure about Texas Tech or Texas long term being in the top 25- they are the 3rd/4th wins on the schedule. By comparison, those would be equal to Penn St and Iowa on the Ohio St schedule. Oklahoma a better win than Wisconsin, and Oklahoma St a better win than Michigan.

What you fail to understand is that Baylor has played 6 really bad teams and WVU. Just about anything improves their SOS. And the Big 12 is done with out of conference games, so its a zero sum situation. Any losses by Big 12 teams don't hurt their Big 12 SOS.
Now some computers weight higher ranked teams heavier so there could be some negative in computer rankings, but that's marginal. Baylor's strength of schedule will go up tremendously. And they have 5 games left while Ohio St. has 3 and most schools have 4. That will work to their benefit in the computers.

As for the pollsters, Baylor plays #10 OU this week. And the others all have some respect. The same can't be said about most of their first 7 opponents. If Baylor beats those good opponents, people will start paying attention to things like them winning 70-13 over Buffalo while Ohio St. beat them 40-20.

If both go unbeaten, they will get close to FSU. Don't know if they will catch them, but its possible.

So Baylor's crummy schedule somehow helps their case?...Not buying it.

Besides there is the issue of incumbency. FSU and Oregon are sitting there. Baylor has to make a case to knock them off. FSU demolished Clemson and Miami. I don't think the human voters are going to push Baylor above FSU because Baylor beats OU. Or Okla State. Or a currently unranked Texas that owns losses to a middling BYU team and a not good Ole Miss team (both by blowouts).

Then there is the Big XII tax. Texas' awful OOC schedule and subsequent strength in conference play has drug the conference down in national perception. And if Oregon beats Stanford, no way Baylor catches them either.

Baylor's weak schedule so far is why they are so low in the computer polls now and why pollsters are skeptical. They will go up dramatically in the computer polls if they keep winning and will get some respect from the pollsters.

Exactly, bullet.

(11-04-2013 10:50 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 09:16 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Baylor isn't competing with Ohio State though. It's FSU.

Alabama, FSU, and Oregon all have 5 games left(to include the CCG). Have to factor in that 13th game...

I just don't see Baylor getting real close at all.

Baylor has ZERO chance of passing FSU, Oregon, or Alabama.

The only race right now is Oregon vs FSU for #2, and Oregon has about a 90% chance of winning that should they both remain unbeaten.

It's not ZERO chance, dude. It may be a small chance. But it's greater than ZERO. If Oregon loses at Stanford, the chance rises considerably, as long as Baylor handles their end of it.

(11-04-2013 11:40 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  Exactly, bullet.

(11-04-2013 10:50 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 09:16 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Baylor isn't competing with Ohio State though. It's FSU.

Alabama, FSU, and Oregon all have 5 games left(to include the CCG). Have to factor in that 13th game...

I just don't see Baylor getting real close at all.

Baylor has ZERO chance of passing FSU, Oregon, or Alabama.

The only race right now is Oregon vs FSU for #2, and Oregon has about a 90% chance of winning that should they both remain unbeaten.

It's not ZERO chance, dude. It may be a small chance. But it's greater than ZERO. If Oregon loses at Stanford, the chance rises considerably, as long as Baylor handles their end of it.

My ZERO prediction is based on Oregon winning out, of course. If they lose, than an unbeaten Baylor would surely pass them.

And of course i don't mean "zero" in some technical/mathematical sense. Obviously, it's not impossible for Baylor to pass one of those three if they all win out. Was just trying to convey a sense of how VERY unlikely it is, and it is.