(09-30-2013 08:09 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 07:59 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 07:47 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  Actually, why would ESPN want to let them out of it?

300 mil is chump change for owning the realignment keystone of an entire conference and preventing it from breaking apart and costing them billions

ESPN might allow/encourage the Big XII to break up IF they could be sure that the best teams end up in either the SEC or the ACC. The one conference they DON'T want getting the juicy pieces right now would be the Big Ten (at least until the new TV contract is signed).

I think ESPN would like Texas to the ACC, and OU and Kansas to the SEC. However as someone mentioned earlier, it's going to be an issue for OU to have Texas, OSU and Nebraska in three different conferences. That's why I think OU only has eyes for the B10 or P12. ESPN would be happy with Kansas and Oklahoma State with the SEC however that still leaves the B10 looking for a 16th - that might be UConn's hope against hope - OU and UConn to the B10, Kansas and OSU to the SEC, and Texas to the ACC.

That would leave the B12 with just 6 - TT, Baylor, TCU, Kansas State, Iowa State, West Va - then they could fill the 6 spots with Cincinatti, Houston, Tulane, SMU, Northern Illinois and Memphis

You could have a Texas Division:

TCU
TT
Baylor
SMU
Houston
Tulane

And a Mississippi Valley Division:

West Va
Cincy
Northern Illinois
Iowa State
Kansas State
Memphis

I like your solution here, but 8 Big 12 teams are going to have to be on board to end the GOR and I'm just not sold that Oklahoma without a contiguous AAU member would get into the Big 10.

Oklahoma is contiguous when we also get Kansas. Come on....ESPN holding those tier 3 rights does not stop Kansas from doing what they want to do. ESPN will sell those rights for a very nice profit. It is called short term investing.

(09-30-2013 07:59 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 07:45 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 07:41 PM)NJRedMan Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 07:30 PM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  Look for Texas to pull the plug on the LHN and get the hell out of the BigXII at the absolute soonest.

Why? It's free money for them. ESPN is the one stuck paying the bills. I'm sure ESPN would LOVE to shut it down themselves but are stuck in the contract.

Yeah, I agree. The LHN wont be pulled. In fact that is a major reason why they would move into the ACC should the Big 12 fold.

If Texas joins the ACC, the Longhorn Network will probably just become part of multi-faced ACC network. The LHN needs content, especially in the winter months. During the football season in Texas it would probably be 50% Texas, 15% ND, 15% FSU and 30 the other 13 schools. In the winter, it would be 50% Texas, 25% Duke and UNC, and 25% the other 13. - Something like that.

But why does Dodds retirement spur Texas to bolt the B12?

A much simpler solution would be for the existing full members of the ACC to get paid 1 million less a piece for the remaining duration of the LHN contract in order for it to immediately be shifted to an equal share ACCN. That way Texas gets its money, and the existing membership of the ACC essentially buy into their equal shares. With the boost in total TV revenue for the addition of Texas (let's say it was the same 2 million per team as N.D. and exactly what ESPN guarantees if there is no network) then all they would have to do is net only a 1 million dollar increase for the next 11 or 12 years and own their share of the network. Since we are dealing in plus money it essentially causes no overhead issues and would have to satisfy Texas. Then you would add onto that starting in 2015 or so the equal share profits from the ACC network portion of the contract.

I think its foolish to just say blindly that ESPN will always have Big Ten's tier 1 rights. Not with how good of a relationship they have with Fox already and how desperate fox is for content for FS1. Hell, I don't know that ESPN is the favorite even to retain the rights here in a few years...

(09-30-2013 08:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think its foolish to just say blindly that ESPN will always have Big Ten's tier 1 rights. Not with how good of a relationship they have with Fox already and how desperate fox is for content for FS1. Hell, I don't know that ESPN is the favorite even to retain the rights here in a few years...

Well one things for sure. After watching the FOX product this year they are going to have to pump some big bucks into it soon if they want it to survive and thrive. Everyone says ESPN made it from humble beginnings and that's true. But, ESPN was only competing with cumbersome Network sports packages that left a lot to be desired by the viewing public. That's quite a different climate than opening up with humble beginnings against a sports saturated industry that is ESPN / ABC. So IMO if they don't hit a home run soon like landing the Big 10 they run the risk of not making it too. And that is something each conference commissioner will have to take into consideration.

(09-30-2013 08:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think its foolish to just say blindly that ESPN will always have Big Ten's tier 1 rights. Not with how good of a relationship they have with Fox already and how desperate fox is for content for FS1. Hell, I don't know that ESPN is the favorite even to retain the rights here in a few years...

The Big Ten is not ran by idiots. Ditching ESPN for Fox would be foolish. It isn't going to happen. FOX made great partners for the Big Ten Network but other than that, the Big Ten and ESPN are on great terms and ESPN loves being able to have first choice of Big Ten match ups.

(09-30-2013 08:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 08:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think its foolish to just say blindly that ESPN will always have Big Ten's tier 1 rights. Not with how good of a relationship they have with Fox already and how desperate fox is for content for FS1. Hell, I don't know that ESPN is the favorite even to retain the rights here in a few years...

Well one things for sure. After watching the FOX product this year they are going to have to pump some big bucks into it soon if they want it to survive and thrive. Everyone says ESPN made it from humble beginnings and that's true. But, ESPN was only competing with cumbersome Network sports packages that left a lot to be desired by the viewing public. That's quite a different climate than opening up with humble beginnings against a sports saturated industry that is ESPN / ABC. So IMO if they don't hit a home run soon like landing the Big 10 they run the risk of not making it too. And that is something each conference commissioner will have to take into consideration.

Totally agree with you. Also wouldn't be shocked if you find the Big Ten shape it's deal like the Pac 12 where their own network even gets some top tier games. I don't think you're going to find it where ESPN/ABC gets what they have now- 38 games- that's for sure.

(09-30-2013 08:54 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 08:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think its foolish to just say blindly that ESPN will always have Big Ten's tier 1 rights. Not with how good of a relationship they have with Fox already and how desperate fox is for content for FS1. Hell, I don't know that ESPN is the favorite even to retain the rights here in a few years...

The Big Ten is not ran by idiots. Ditching ESPN for Fox would be foolish. It isn't going to happen. FOX made great partners for the Big Ten Network but other than that, the Big Ten and ESPN are on great terms and ESPN loves being able to have first choice of Big Ten match ups.

They're going to have to pay big time money to do that.... I just don't see them keeping all 41 games they currently have, that's for sure.

(09-30-2013 09:05 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 08:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 08:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think its foolish to just say blindly that ESPN will always have Big Ten's tier 1 rights. Not with how good of a relationship they have with Fox already and how desperate fox is for content for FS1. Hell, I don't know that ESPN is the favorite even to retain the rights here in a few years...

Well one things for sure. After watching the FOX product this year they are going to have to pump some big bucks into it soon if they want it to survive and thrive. Everyone says ESPN made it from humble beginnings and that's true. But, ESPN was only competing with cumbersome Network sports packages that left a lot to be desired by the viewing public. That's quite a different climate than opening up with humble beginnings against a sports saturated industry that is ESPN / ABC. So IMO if they don't hit a home run soon like landing the Big 10 they run the risk of not making it too. And that is something each conference commissioner will have to take into consideration.

Totally agree with you. Also wouldn't be shocked if you find the Big Ten shape it's deal like the Pac 12 where their own network even gets some top tier games. I don't think you're going to find it where ESPN/ABC gets what they have now- 38 games- that's for sure.

That's a very logical assumption. It will also help to eventually facilitate the attempts to get a partnership between the two solidified. As their business models get closer together and their conference policies against playing FCS schools synchronize it will become very advantageous for them to make such an alliance happen. Two huge markets brought into play by such scheduling will be a win win for both networks (PACN & Big10N).

You guys are hilarious. Texas is looking for a new AD, and all of a sudden the B12 is going to collapse - or simply let Texas walk off into the sunset. I'm going to enjoy looking back on this thread to see how close you guys are to reality...

(09-30-2013 09:25 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  You guys are hilarious. Texas is looking for a new AD, and all of a sudden the B12 is going to collapse - or simply let Texas walk off into the sunset. I'm going to enjoy looking back on this thread to see how close you guys are to reality...

We will too! The fact that nobody has a clue one way or the other what will really transpire is what keeps this entertaining.

But, then again, there are logical conclusions to each assumption. Get the assumptions correct and you just might figure it out. And everybody loves a mystery to try to solve.

(09-30-2013 09:25 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  You guys are hilarious. Texas is looking for a new AD, and all of a sudden the B12 is going to collapse - or simply let Texas walk off into the sunset. I'm going to enjoy looking back on this thread to see how close you guys are to reality...

For fairness sakes, we have been talking about this for awhile now Bit and you know that.

If the Big 12 is to collapse it wont be because of Texas seeking a new AD but a pending Big 12 collapse is much more likely to be the underlying cause of Texas seeking a new AD. Especially when you look at the timeline. Why else would Dodds wait until August of next year?

(09-30-2013 09:41 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 09:25 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  You guys are hilarious. Texas is looking for a new AD, and all of a sudden the B12 is going to collapse - or simply let Texas walk off into the sunset. I'm going to enjoy looking back on this thread to see how close you guys are to reality...

For fairness sakes, we have been talking about this for awhile now Bit and you know that.

If the Big 12 is to collapse it wont be because of Texas seeking a new AD but a pending Big 12 collapse is much more likely to be the underlying cause of Texas seeking a new AD. Especially when you look at the timeline. Why else would Dodds wait until August of next year?

Because he gets a $1 million bonus if he is still employed by then.
Because its the end of the fiscal year.
Because it gives Texas time to search for someone who might not want to leave in the middle of the year.
Because Division IV is going to be debated in January and he probably wants a say in that.
And he will be 75 next August.

(09-30-2013 10:17 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 09:41 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 09:25 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  You guys are hilarious. Texas is looking for a new AD, and all of a sudden the B12 is going to collapse - or simply let Texas walk off into the sunset. I'm going to enjoy looking back on this thread to see how close you guys are to reality...

For fairness sakes, we have been talking about this for awhile now Bit and you know that.

If the Big 12 is to collapse it wont be because of Texas seeking a new AD but a pending Big 12 collapse is much more likely to be the underlying cause of Texas seeking a new AD. Especially when you look at the timeline. Why else would Dodds wait until August of next year?

Because he gets a $1 million bonus if he is still employed by then.
Because its the end of the fiscal year.
Because it gives Texas time to search for someone who might not want to leave in the middle of the year.
Because Division IV is going to be debated in January and he probably wants a say in that.
And he will be 75 next August.

To the first point. He is staying on as Advisor for all the pay and fully envested privilages. He doesn't have to stay on till August of 2014 for that to happen. He could leave 6 months earlier and be an on staff Advisor to the Athletic Department for a year and six months and the end result is the same. They picked August for a very particular reason, in my opinion, and that will become more evident in the somewhat near future.

To your third point. He gets to be a shield for his friend Mack Brown by staying on this long. I do think that is part of it.

To your final point, I do believe you are also correct in that regard. He wants to have his say in how it is going to go but I don't think he wants to be around to Enact it. That will be a lot of work. He will get paid the same as he does now to simply Advise without having to do all the work. That is one hell of a nice friggin deal he is getting.

(09-30-2013 07:30 PM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  Look for Texas to pull the plug on the LHN and get the hell out of the BigXII at the absolute soonest.

Look for Texas to hire Tom Jurich.

(10-01-2013 12:17 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 07:30 PM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  Look for Texas to pull the plug on the LHN and get the hell out of the BigXII at the absolute soonest.

Look for Texas to hire Tom Jurich.

Him or Bob Bowlsby. Bowlsby was Stanford's athletics director prior to being the Big 12 commissioner. So, he's used to huge athletics departments that want to win in every sport they compete. Plus, they could probably pick the next Big12 commissioner and make him someone compatible with Texas's plans.

(10-01-2013 01:10 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(10-01-2013 12:17 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 07:30 PM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  Look for Texas to pull the plug on the LHN and get the hell out of the BigXII at the absolute soonest.

Look for Texas to hire Tom Jurich.

Him or Bob Bowlsby. Bowlsby was Stanford's athletics director prior to being the Big 12 commissioner. So, he's used to huge athletics departments that want to win in every sport they compete. Plus, they could probably pick the next Big12 commissioner and make him someone compatible with Texas's plans.

It's not going to be either one of those guys if Dodds is really going to be hanging around for a year after the new guy takes over. Neither one of those guys (or anyone else who already has a long accomplished career) would leave a good job for the "privilege" of having ol' DeLoss looking over his shoulder for a year.

(10-01-2013 01:43 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(10-01-2013 01:10 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(10-01-2013 12:17 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 07:30 PM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  Look for Texas to pull the plug on the LHN and get the hell out of the BigXII at the absolute soonest.

Look for Texas to hire Tom Jurich.

Him or Bob Bowlsby. Bowlsby was Stanford's athletics director prior to being the Big 12 commissioner. So, he's used to huge athletics departments that want to win in every sport they compete. Plus, they could probably pick the next Big12 commissioner and make him someone compatible with Texas's plans.

It's not going to be either one of those guys if Dodds is really going to be hanging around for a year after the new guy takes over. Neither one of those guys (or anyone else who already has a long accomplished career) would leave a good job for the "privilege" of having ol' DeLoss looking over his shoulder for a year.

If it's Bowlsby one would have to ask the question did he want to be the AD at Texas, or did he take the position understanding that there would not be a need of a conference commissioner of the Big 12 much longer and that such an offer was his to hold until Slive retires after realignment is over.

(09-30-2013 07:45 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 07:41 PM)NJRedMan Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 07:30 PM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  Look for Texas to pull the plug on the LHN and get the hell out of the BigXII at the absolute soonest.

Why? It's free money for them. ESPN is the one stuck paying the bills. I'm sure ESPN would LOVE to shut it down themselves but are stuck in the contract.

Yeah, I agree. The LHN wont be pulled. In fact that is a major reason why they would move into the ACC should the Big 12 fold.

TX is going to the PAC 12....

(10-01-2013 01:43 AM)Wedge Wrote:  Neither one of those guys (or anyone else who already has a long accomplished career) would leave a good job for the "privilege" of having ol' DeLoss looking over his shoulder for a year.

...or the boosters.