(03-25-2013 11:21 AM)Football Junky Wrote: (03-25-2013 11:07 AM)TerryD Wrote: (03-25-2013 10:37 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote: (03-25-2013 10:20 AM)TerryD Wrote: (03-25-2013 10:07 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote: Terry, you avoided the question. You admit you are in the minority on the realignment issue and we know what you think or hope will happen.
So assuming the majority are correct and realignment continues with the poaching of the ACC and as a result Notre Dame has to join a conference......the question is, which conference will they want to join?.
BTW I stand by my original statement, (that some of you Notre Damer's took exception to) that "IF" Notre Dame ever joins a conference it wil be the Big 10..... because in that event I believe their only choices will be The BIG, SEC, Big12 or PAC.
I didn't avoid the question. I said that ND will either remain an independent affiliated with the ACC or will join the ACC as a full member.
I think that will be the case no matter what happens with expansion.
I believe that ND made its choice, twice. The first time last September when it announced it was moving to the ACC and again a couple of weeks ago when it announced it was moving there this coming July.
I think that those were pretty clear indications of ND's long term intentions.
Now, if you are limiting ND's only choices to the Big 12, the Big Ten, the SEC or the Pac 12, then my best guess is that the Irish will team up with its buddy, Texas.
The question was based on the premis, that as most seem to believe, the ACC will be poached and no longer a power conference.
So your answer is, you think the Irish would join the Big12.
That is interesting. Thanks.
No, you misunderstand my answer or I misunderstood your question.
My answer to the question as illustrated by the highlighted portion of your post (a weakened but not destroyed ACC) is that ND will remain an independent and be affiliated with the ACC.
If the ACC is totally destroyed, gonzo.....out of existence entirely...then my opinion is that ND will team up with Texas as a counterweight to an expanded Big Ten.
As great as that would be from a ratings standpoint for the Big12, I just don’t see that happening. Much of this thread implies a future around an FBS or follow-on league with 60 -80 or so members. I think this is a false assumption. As a result so is the assumption that these realignment actions will force another school to take any particular specific action.
Couple of thoughts about power conferences in general:
Currently we have about 35 bowl games in FBS requiring 70 teams. Previous posters have pointed out that the math requires a significant number of teams to eliminate enough sub-performers in any given season to get the remaining 70 teams. If you use a reasonable ratio of say 60% make it to a bowl that gets you into to the 115-120 team number (Note: FBS had 120 teams in 2012). Never mind the every changing demography that drives increased enrolment and resources to schools in the southwest such as UTEP, SDSU makes the likelihood of more large schools NOT less a likely scenario.
What you say has truth in it. It has logic behind it. But your false assumption is that this is being done for the sake of college football elites. It most certainly is not. The desire of the BCS and the playoff it will morph into is to achieve better post season ratings by having teams from large alumni bases with national appeal playing in a format manipulated to boost ratings from the East coast to the West and from the North to the South. It has noting to do with football.
Conference realignment has nothing to little to do with football either. It has been, is, and will continue to be about the takeover of schools as sports property for the networks. Any assumption that it is about anything else will simply be a flawed assumption.
The only reason that schools are willing to listen now, and that realignment is happening now, is because we are in some kind of economic distress best defined as a protracted recession but not quite a depression, but God forbid we actually name it because some political party or corporate interest group would have to deal with it as a reality then and it might panic the public.
It is the intersection of declining state revenue streams that are causing deep state cuts for the funding of higher education coupled with the lure of television revenue promised in some cases for a decade and a half that are driving realignment and the timing is no accident. One of the oldest ploys in a hostile takeover is to make your offers during times of your object of desire's lowest liquidity. And that's now.
60 - 70 teams are what the Networks want. No patsies are what the Networks want. No play out of an upper division is what the Networks want. They want the best product, with none of the slow sku's to stock their lineup with. They want every game every week to have a high national interest. They want brand name against brand name and they want an upper tier so that a Boise State, or Utah, or Hawaii can't crash the party and spoil the ratings.
This is not about Slive, Delany, Swafford, Scott, or Bowlsby. It is about those gentlemen grasping for the dollars being dangled by a network. And by the way, the total dollars paid to an upper tier aren't coming out of thin air. They will be from the money that the Networks will no longer have to pay the smaller schools. The rich will get richer and it will be from the pile that once fed everyone.
That's corporate America at work. Texas, Alabama, Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State, U.S.C., Oregon, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida State are all now among the banks that will become too big to fail.
Downsizing is coming to education in this country from the grade schools to the Universities. Many states have already started cutting the funding. Realignment is about setting aside those to be protected on the education side of things, and about culling down to the most watched and identified with products for the networks. It is most assuredly not about quality of sports, variety of sports, or even about sports. It is simply about revenue and survival.
It is not about SEC, Big 10, ACC, Big 12, or PAC. It is about protecting them because they control the most eyeballs on Saturday and that's it.