The bracketology "experts" are picking the winner of the MTSU v. St. Mary's game to upset Memphis.

Some quotes:

Quote:Sometimes the NCAA doesn't do a great job seeding every team. The Tigers struggle at free throw shooting and they appear to be ripe for an upset before the Round of 32.

and speaking about St. Mary's vs. MTSU:

Quote:Whichever team wins this one has a nice chance not only to beat turnover-prone Memphis, but of making the Sweet 16.

I get it; they do this every year and recent history is against us. However, when writing about the turnovers, why do they never mention how fast our guys play? In the games where teams have slowed it down, our turnovers are at an average rate. Yes, the Tigers will have to play smart, but I think these kind of analyses are lazy in that they look at the numbers and make incorrect assumptions. Only time will tell, but after a few hours of looking at St. Mary's and MTSU's highlights and stats, I like our chances. They are both good teams, but we matchup very, very well.

EDIT: ESPN gives MTSU a 53.2% chance of an upset and St. Mary's a 67.5% chance of an upset.

Yeah I get it too. All we can do is play and win.

(03-18-2013 08:35 AM)TigerBall Wrote:  Yeah I get it too. All we can do is play and win.

I agree. It is time for our team's action to change perception.

Pound them, until they shut it.

the only thing that makes these people an 'expert' is the ignorant following of the American fanbase.
An opinion from you, me or anyone else is just as valid. The only missing is the fact that several million people don't get to see us on tv or radio...to know what our opinions are. In no way shape or form does that make our opinions of any less values than the talking heads.

Well...

We do shoot free-throws pretty poorly and we have been turnover prone in the past.

No one believes we can do anything based off our history in big games/NCAA tournament the last 3 years. Fair or not, it's what we're judged on.

...and these same prognosticators had Michigan State beating turnover-prone, and poor foul shooting #1 seed Memphis back in 2008. The next thing you know, Memphis leads them 50-20 at halftime.

In 2009, they predict Grievas Vascquez's #10 seed Maryland beating the #2 seeded, and untested Memphis Tigers in the 2nd round. That was another blow-out by the Tigers.

Last year, everyone was talking about the Tigers as being the most likely #8 to beat a #1. We all know what happened there.

I like where we are this year, with everyone predicting us to be the first major tournament upset. In just about every bracket I've ever filled out over the years, the "Cinderella" team that the experts all pick is usually a 1st round loser. It's usually someone you least expect that ends up making a lot of noise in the early rounds.

(03-18-2013 08:18 AM)tigerfansincebirth89 Wrote:  The bracketology "experts" are picking the winner of the MTSU v. St. Mary's game to upset Memphis.

Some quotes:

Quote:Sometimes the NCAA doesn't do a great job seeding every team. The Tigers struggle at free throw shooting and they appear to be ripe for an upset before the Round of 32.

and speaking about St. Mary's vs. MTSU:

Quote:Whichever team wins this one has a nice chance not only to beat turnover-prone Memphis, but of making the Sweet 16.

I get it; they do this every year and recent history is against us. However, when writing about the turnovers, why do they never mention how fast our guys play? In the games where teams have slowed it down, our turnovers are at an average rate. Yes, the Tigers will have to play smart, but I think these kind of analyses are lazy in that they look at the numbers and make incorrect assumptions. Only time will tell, but after a few hours of looking at St. Mary's and MTSU's highlights and stats, I like our chances. They are both good teams, but we matchup very, very well.

EDIT: ESPN gives MTSU a 53.2% chance of an upset and St. Mary's a 67.5% chance of an upset.

Saying we play fast is a misnomer.

(03-18-2013 04:11 PM)JTS Wrote:  Saying we play fast is a misnomer.

How so? People keep saying this and I have yet to understand the basis.

just google "midwest bracket breakdown". Every, and I mean EVERY major news outlet, blogger, or local news outlet is predicting MTSU will beat St. MArys and then us. Its kind of funny. No disrespect to MTSU, but if the argument is that we dont have any signature wins, Why such a love fest for MTSU. Their best win is Ole Miss. I guess once ESPN says it all the other guys do is copy and paste.

When you take into account their similar styles along with Memphis' far superior roster we should be a clear cut favorite. I guess they have to pick somebody to be upset.

It's good stuff to put on the bulletin board for motivation - and we do need to practice our FT's.

(03-18-2013 04:11 PM)JTS Wrote:  

(03-18-2013 08:18 AM)tigerfansincebirth89 Wrote:  The bracketology "experts" are picking the winner of the MTSU v. St. Mary's game to upset Memphis.

Some quotes:

Quote:Sometimes the NCAA doesn't do a great job seeding every team. The Tigers struggle at free throw shooting and they appear to be ripe for an upset before the Round of 32.

and speaking about St. Mary's vs. MTSU:

Quote:Whichever team wins this one has a nice chance not only to beat turnover-prone Memphis, but of making the Sweet 16.

I get it; they do this every year and recent history is against us. However, when writing about the turnovers, why do they never mention how fast our guys play? In the games where teams have slowed it down, our turnovers are at an average rate. Yes, the Tigers will have to play smart, but I think these kind of analyses are lazy in that they look at the numbers and make incorrect assumptions. Only time will tell, but after a few hours of looking at St. Mary's and MTSU's highlights and stats, I like our chances. They are both good teams, but we matchup very, very well.

EDIT: ESPN gives MTSU a 53.2% chance of an upset and St. Mary's a 67.5% chance of an upset.

Saying we play fast is a misnomer.

We play alot faster than we did last year...Ranked 28th in tempo.
2nd fastest tempo we have played in the previous 10 years...2006 was slightly faster.

(03-18-2013 04:13 PM)tigerfansincebirth89 Wrote:  

(03-18-2013 04:11 PM)JTS Wrote:  Saying we play fast is a misnomer.

How so? People keep saying this and I have yet to understand the basis.

Teams that have controlled the pace when playing us do two things:

1) Run a deliberate offense. This limits our touches on offense and has nothing to do with game speed. Even if they use the whole shot clock you can still run down the court and attack the basket. We don't do that now and haven't in Pastner's 4 years.

2) Run a defense that prevents us from scoring quickly. Generally a gimmick zone. Pastner has no desire to take a shot 12 seconds into the shot clock, never has. He just wants the open guy to shoot it. If it happens at 12 seconds then fine, but he's just as happy at 30 seconds.

What teams are doing with us now is picking their poison. They are choosing to pack the lane to slow our inside game. This to me is the weakest part of our game. In my opinion, this is a mistake, as we are shooting well now from the outside. An example of this is the championship game; it worked for Southern Miss until we started hitting our outside shot then it was game over.

We would love to run, every team does, but when the other team scores it ain't happening. Fast break points have nothing to do with playing fast. It's just taking advantage of the moment.

Our offense is deliberate, not fast. Remember the open man is the go to man.

(03-18-2013 04:45 PM)JTS Wrote:  

(03-18-2013 04:13 PM)tigerfansincebirth89 Wrote:  

(03-18-2013 04:11 PM)JTS Wrote:  Saying we play fast is a misnomer.

How so? People keep saying this and I have yet to understand the basis.

Teams that have controlled the pace when playing us do two things:

1) Run a deliberate offense. This limits our touches on offense and has nothing to do with game speed. Even if they use the whole shot clock you can still run down the court and attack the basket. We don't do that now and haven't in Pastner's 4 years.

2) Run a defense that prevents us from scoring quickly. Generally a gimmick zone. Pastner has no desire to take a shot 12 seconds into the shot clock, never has. He just wants the open guy to shoot it. If it happens at 12 seconds then fine, but he's just as happy at 30 seconds.

What teams are doing with us now is picking their poison. They are choosing to pack the lane to slow our inside game. This to me is the weakest part of our game. In my opinion, this is a mistake, as we are shooting well now from the outside.

We would love to run, every team does, but when the other team scores it ain't happening. Fast break points have nothing to do with playing fast. It's just taking advantage of the moment.

Our offense is deliberate, not fast. Remember the open man is the go to man.

We play at the 28th fastest tempo in Division 1. We play fast.

(03-18-2013 04:16 PM)Mtyler Wrote:  just google "midwest bracket breakdown". Every, and I mean EVERY major news outlet, blogger, or local news outlet is predicting MTSU will beat St. MArys and then us. Its kind of funny. No disrespect to MTSU, but if the argument is that we dont have any signature wins, Why such a love fest for MTSU. Their best win is Ole Miss. I guess once ESPN says it all the other guys do is copy and paste.

When you take into account their similar styles along with Memphis' far superior roster we should be a clear cut favorite. I guess they have to pick somebody to be upset.

If Mtsu had players like ours they would be at Memphis.Similar styles but we have better players.St marys has one player.

(03-18-2013 04:45 PM)JTS Wrote:  

(03-18-2013 04:13 PM)tigerfansincebirth89 Wrote:  

(03-18-2013 04:11 PM)JTS Wrote:  Saying we play fast is a misnomer.

How so? People keep saying this and I have yet to understand the basis.

Teams that have controlled the pace when playing us do two things:

1) Run a deliberate offense. This limits our touches on offense and has nothing to do with game speed. Even if they use the whole shot clock you can still run down the court and attack the basket. We don't do that now and haven't in Pastner's 4 years.

2) Run a defense that prevents us from scoring quickly. Generally a gimmick zone. Pastner has no desire to take a shot 12 seconds into the shot clock, never has. He just wants the open guy to shoot it. If it happens at 12 seconds then fine, but he's just as happy at 30 seconds.

What teams are doing with us now is picking their poison. They are choosing to pack the lane to slow our inside game. This to me is the weakest part of our game. In my opinion, this is a mistake, as we are shooting well now from the outside. An example of this is the championship game; it worked for Southern Miss until we started hitting our outside shot then it was game over.

We would love to run, every team does, but when the other team scores it ain't happening. Fast break points have nothing to do with playing fast. It's just taking advantage of the moment.

Our offense is deliberate, not fast. Remember the open man is the go to man.

Ok, so let me get this straight:

#1 Teams play a slow offense in order to limit our touches, thus implying they want to slow us down, but this doesn't mean we play fast.


#2 Teams play a zone defense to keep us from scoring quickly, but this doesn't mean we play fast.

#3 Pastner doesn't want to take the shot clock far down, he wants the first open guy to shoot, but this doesn't mean we play fast.

#4 Teams are packing the lane to slow us down, but this doesn't mean we are playing fast.

#5 We would love to run all game, but this doesn't mean we play fast.

#6 Fast break points actually don't mean you're playing fast.

Those are your points, I'll add one, staying with your line of thinking...

#7 Teams often times send 4 guys back immediately to defend our transition, but this doesn't mean we play fast.


Friend, that's the most ridiculous analysis I have seen on this board. Bar none.

(03-18-2013 04:16 PM)Mtyler Wrote:  just google "midwest bracket breakdown". Every, and I mean EVERY major news outlet, blogger, or local news outlet is predicting MTSU will beat St. MArys and then us. Its kind of funny. No disrespect to MTSU, but if the argument is that we dont have any signature wins, Why such a love fest for MTSU. Their best win is Ole Miss. I guess once ESPN says it all the other guys do is copy and paste.

When you take into account their similar styles along with Memphis' far superior roster we should be a clear cut favorite. I guess they have to pick somebody to be upset.

When you compare resources this make no sense. We have better talent than either one of these teams.

So...what are they basing their prognostication on?

(03-18-2013 04:54 PM)tigerfansincebirth89 Wrote:  

(03-18-2013 04:45 PM)JTS Wrote:  

(03-18-2013 04:13 PM)tigerfansincebirth89 Wrote:  

(03-18-2013 04:11 PM)JTS Wrote:  Saying we play fast is a misnomer.

How so? People keep saying this and I have yet to understand the basis.

Teams that have controlled the pace when playing us do two things:

1) Run a deliberate offense. This limits our touches on offense and has nothing to do with game speed. Even if they use the whole shot clock you can still run down the court and attack the basket. We don't do that now and haven't in Pastner's 4 years.

2) Run a defense that prevents us from scoring quickly. Generally a gimmick zone. Pastner has no desire to take a shot 12 seconds into the shot clock, never has. He just wants the open guy to shoot it. If it happens at 12 seconds then fine, but he's just as happy at 30 seconds.

What teams are doing with us now is picking their poison. They are choosing to pack the lane to slow our inside game. This to me is the weakest part of our game. In my opinion, this is a mistake, as we are shooting well now from the outside. An example of this is the championship game; it worked for Southern Miss until we started hitting our outside shot then it was game over.

We would love to run, every team does, but when the other team scores it ain't happening. Fast break points have nothing to do with playing fast. It's just taking advantage of the moment.

Our offense is deliberate, not fast. Remember the open man is the go to man.

Ok, so let me get this straight:

#1 Teams play a slow offense in order to limit our touches, thus implying they want to slow us down, but this doesn't mean we play fast.

YES

#2 Teams play a zone defense to keep us from scoring quickly, but this doesn't mean we play fast.

They want to limit our scoring options by removing our inside game

#3 Pastner doesn't want to take the shot clock far down, he wants the first open guy to shoot, but this doesn't mean we play fast.

Correct

#4 Teams are packing the lane to slow us down, but this doesn't mean we are playing fast.

No, it means they are limiting our scoring options.

#5 We would love to run all game, but this doesn't mean we play fast.

It means we would love to get fast break opportunities, when available.

#6 Fast break points actually don't mean you're playing fast.

Sure at that moment you are, but please tell me the last time we were able to run all game or even attempted to.

Those are your points, I'll add one, staying with your line of thinking...

#7 Teams often times send 4 guys back immediately to defend our transition, but this doesn't mean we play fast.

You mean releasing 4 guys at the shot? If this is the case, then we would be smoking everybody on defensive rebounds. The 4 guys you are taking about are just getting back on zone defense.

I didn't say we don't want to run, what I am saying is that most of the time it's not our decision.

Friend, that's the most ridiculous analysis I have seen on this board. Bar none.

Next...

(03-18-2013 04:16 PM)Mtyler Wrote:  just google "midwest bracket breakdown". Every, and I mean EVERY major news outlet, blogger, or local news outlet is predicting MTSU will beat St. MArys and then us. Its kind of funny. No disrespect to MTSU, but if the argument is that we dont have any signature wins, Why such a love fest for MTSU. Their best win is Ole Miss. I guess once ESPN says it all the other guys do is copy and paste.

When you take into account their similar styles along with Memphis' far superior roster we should be a clear cut favorite. I guess they have to pick somebody to be upset.

...we led the #1 seed in this year's NCAA Tournament by 16 points with 09:53 left in the first half, and led them by 7 at the half....until the zebras took over. When we played 5 against 5, we dominated. 5 against 8, it deteriorated, fast. When and if we bring our A game, we can play with anyone in the country, including Louisville.

We might as well not show up and get embarrassed.