(02-19-2013 10:56 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote: I don't know why you're projecting the future based on an analysis of this year, a single season. A bigger sample size makes more sense.
Once you include Butler and Xavier, it doesn't matter who else you put in the mix, the C7+ has advanced over 40 teams to the tournament over the past 10 years with 5 - 6 teams to the Final Four. That's a 4 - 5 bid league annually and with that number of teams in the Final 4, it's a power league by anyone's definition.
It is a gut feeling. My gut feeling is that 3 of the 7 schools leaving the broken Big East are probably going to be good, along with Butler and Xavier.
However, my gut feeling is that over half of the C7 are going to have a hard time winning games and getting into the tournament. Add Richmond, Saint Louis, and Dayton to that as well (double that for the "not a candidate" teams like Siena and Detroit).
If you have 5 strong teams and 7 teams that would be at the bottom of a power conference, you don't have a power conference. You have a slightly bigger MWC focused on the east coast instead of the west. To use a power conference analogy, the C7 would be the Big 12 without Kansas, but with five teams about where KState or Baylor are and seven TCUs and Texas Techs.
IMHO, this direction would make the C7 competitive with the A10, MWC, and nBE, not the power conferences. You have to take into account that this league doesn't have a blue blood type team, so it would have to offset top-end quality with quantity. You can argue that this league could be better than the SEC or Pac12 if those conferences had a down year, but the same argument applies to the other mid-major conferences.
If I had total control, I'd go with 10 teams (Butler + Xavier + Gonzaga/VCU/Creighton). If I had to go 12, I'd look at adding all of those teams over Richmond, Saint Louis, or Dayton. Only at 14+ would I add a team that doesn't have something basketball related that makes me say "wow." To me, the biggest issue is offsetting the teams in the C7 that haven't been strong lately.