Yes, but the new schools got their bids based on records compiled against easier competition.

(02-20-2013 11:51 AM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 10:07 AM)College Basketball Fan Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 09:40 AM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  Yes, I overlooked the MVC of the 1970's. There day was done when the Metro was formed in 1975 and the MVC lost Louisville, Memphis, etc. Indiana State was their last hurrah.

But my point remains the same. They haven't gotten anyone to a Final 4 in a very long time, i.e. 34 years. Let's look at the other midmajors you've mentioned in terms of Final 4's:

A10 - 1 Final Four in the entire history of the league - UMass (1996)

Mountain West - No Final Fours in league history

West Coast - San Francisco (1955, 56, 57)

New Big East - UConn (1999, 2004, 09, 11), Memphis (2008)

So, the nBE is the only one that has a team that has gone to the Final Four in recent memory. But the nBE is lacking depth. That group has gotten only 26 tournament bids in the last 10 years. That's a 2-3 bid league.

The C7+ has 50-52 bids in the last 10 years. That's a 5 bid league. And if they want to think outside the box, they could replace Dayton with Gonzaga, who has 10 bids in the last 10 years. That would give the C7+ 57 bids, or almost 6 (5.7) per year. No matter how you slice it, the C7+ is a notch above the nBE. More bids, more Final 4's.

We can do a more detailed analysis to show that none of these midmajors has the history of getting the number of bids that the C7+ have. But the bottom line is that the only way that the C7+ doesn't qualify as a power conference is if you require a team with a history of multiple national championships that gets to the tournament most of the time.

If that's the case, then the old Big East didn't qualify as a power conference either because they didn't have anyone who met those criteria until UConn's recent success. Are you really going to tell me that the old Big East was not a power conference?

One correction: the MWC would have UNLV, which has 4 Final Fours in the school's history. I don't know about any other school in that conference.

My criteria for being a power conference is thus:

1. Have a championship contending team every year, either in the form of a single superpower (Kansas, Kentucky), or in the form of multiple teams that could be that good but aren't that way every year (Big East with Louisville, Syracuse, UConn, Georgetown, etc.).

OR

2. Consistently get at least 50% of the league into the tournament.


I don't think the C7 + Butler/Xavier/Dayton/SLU/Richmond meets the first criteria. I see Georgetown as a potential Final Four team on good years, and may Butler and Xavier will get to that level as well, but I don't feel like there are enough good teams to guarantee that one will be that level almost every year.

Additionally, I don't feel that the C7 would meet the second criteria. That would be a 3-5 bid league, and I feel getting 50% of the teams into the tournament would be an exception, not the rule. Essentially, what I'm saying is that if you forced me to say which teams COULD be tournament level over the next 5-10 years, I would say:

C7:
Georgetown
Villanova
Marquette
St. John's

Candidates:
Butler
Xavier
Creighton
Gonzaga
VCU

That doesn't mean that DePaul couldn't regain its swagger or that Saint Louis won't continue to stay competitive, but I feel these are your best basketball schools for the near future. Loading up on teams outside this list makes it a lot harder to justify the C7 as a power conference. They may be better on some year's than the Pac 12 or Big 12 minus Kansas, but that doesn't mean they will be good enough to get respect in the media.

I didn't include UNLV because they were an independent when they went to those Final Fours. I was talking about the history of the conference, which was only formed in 1999.

I can't go on anything but history. And the fact is that in recent years, the C7+ has had championship contending teams almost every year, using the Elite 8 as the definition of championship contender:

2012 -
2011 - Butler R/U, VCU FF
2010 - Butler R/U
2009 - Villanova FF
2008 - Xavier E8
2007 - Georgetown FF
2006 - Villanova E8
2005 -
2004 - Xavier E8
2003 - Marquette FF

Your claim of a 3-5 bid league is not fact based. This group has had 52 bids over the past 10 years. That's an average 0f 5.2 per year, or a 5-6 bid league.

The record of 6 Final fours is surpassed only by the Big East over the past 10 years. The number of bids (52) is almost identical to the Big Ten (54).

You can use your gut to project into a future of a 3-5 bid league, but your gut isn't a fact. The fact is that this group has been as successful as any group in the country over the past 10 years. Only the Big East has been more successful and they needed a membership of 16 teams to do that.

I think it is silly to discount UNLV's history before THE MWC and then talk about how good the C7 will be because of the history of the incoming schools.

I think that a harder conference will make any borderline tournament team in the A10 into a team that will miss the tournament, so I doubt Richmond, Dayton, or SLU will help the conference gain bids in the near future.

If those are the teams added, I think the usual year will see the 3-5 bids I listed. That isn't saying the conference couldn't get more, but I think that is unlikely to happen any given year.

(02-20-2013 02:41 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  Yes, but the new schools got their bids based on records compiled against easier competition.

but a lot of times they had to build their resume OOC to get in the tournament.

bottom line you can't have it both ways-
new conference easier so the weaker C7 schools will get bids they wouldn't have gotten before
and
new conference so tough the stronger new schools won't get bids.

it doesn't work that way.

Will the distinguished gentleman from Wichita give up the "I hate SLU" campaign?

(02-20-2013 02:42 PM)College Basketball Fan Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 11:51 AM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 10:07 AM)College Basketball Fan Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 09:40 AM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  Yes, I overlooked the MVC of the 1970's. There day was done when the Metro was formed in 1975 and the MVC lost Louisville, Memphis, etc. Indiana State was their last hurrah.

But my point remains the same. They haven't gotten anyone to a Final 4 in a very long time, i.e. 34 years. Let's look at the other midmajors you've mentioned in terms of Final 4's:

A10 - 1 Final Four in the entire history of the league - UMass (1996)

Mountain West - No Final Fours in league history

West Coast - San Francisco (1955, 56, 57)

New Big East - UConn (1999, 2004, 09, 11), Memphis (2008)

So, the nBE is the only one that has a team that has gone to the Final Four in recent memory. But the nBE is lacking depth. That group has gotten only 26 tournament bids in the last 10 years. That's a 2-3 bid league.

The C7+ has 50-52 bids in the last 10 years. That's a 5 bid league. And if they want to think outside the box, they could replace Dayton with Gonzaga, who has 10 bids in the last 10 years. That would give the C7+ 57 bids, or almost 6 (5.7) per year. No matter how you slice it, the C7+ is a notch above the nBE. More bids, more Final 4's.

We can do a more detailed analysis to show that none of these midmajors has the history of getting the number of bids that the C7+ have. But the bottom line is that the only way that the C7+ doesn't qualify as a power conference is if you require a team with a history of multiple national championships that gets to the tournament most of the time.

If that's the case, then the old Big East didn't qualify as a power conference either because they didn't have anyone who met those criteria until UConn's recent success. Are you really going to tell me that the old Big East was not a power conference?

One correction: the MWC would have UNLV, which has 4 Final Fours in the school's history. I don't know about any other school in that conference.

My criteria for being a power conference is thus:

1. Have a championship contending team every year, either in the form of a single superpower (Kansas, Kentucky), or in the form of multiple teams that could be that good but aren't that way every year (Big East with Louisville, Syracuse, UConn, Georgetown, etc.).

OR

2. Consistently get at least 50% of the league into the tournament.


I don't think the C7 + Butler/Xavier/Dayton/SLU/Richmond meets the first criteria. I see Georgetown as a potential Final Four team on good years, and may Butler and Xavier will get to that level as well, but I don't feel like there are enough good teams to guarantee that one will be that level almost every year.

Additionally, I don't feel that the C7 would meet the second criteria. That would be a 3-5 bid league, and I feel getting 50% of the teams into the tournament would be an exception, not the rule. Essentially, what I'm saying is that if you forced me to say which teams COULD be tournament level over the next 5-10 years, I would say:

C7:
Georgetown
Villanova
Marquette
St. John's

Candidates:
Butler
Xavier
Creighton
Gonzaga
VCU

That doesn't mean that DePaul couldn't regain its swagger or that Saint Louis won't continue to stay competitive, but I feel these are your best basketball schools for the near future. Loading up on teams outside this list makes it a lot harder to justify the C7 as a power conference. They may be better on some year's than the Pac 12 or Big 12 minus Kansas, but that doesn't mean they will be good enough to get respect in the media.

I didn't include UNLV because they were an independent when they went to those Final Fours. I was talking about the history of the conference, which was only formed in 1999.

I can't go on anything but history. And the fact is that in recent years, the C7+ has had championship contending teams almost every year, using the Elite 8 as the definition of championship contender:

2012 -
2011 - Butler R/U, VCU FF
2010 - Butler R/U
2009 - Villanova FF
2008 - Xavier E8
2007 - Georgetown FF
2006 - Villanova E8
2005 -
2004 - Xavier E8
2003 - Marquette FF

Your claim of a 3-5 bid league is not fact based. This group has had 52 bids over the past 10 years. That's an average 0f 5.2 per year, or a 5-6 bid league.

The record of 6 Final fours is surpassed only by the Big East over the past 10 years. The number of bids (52) is almost identical to the Big Ten (54).

You can use your gut to project into a future of a 3-5 bid league, but your gut isn't a fact. The fact is that this group has been as successful as any group in the country over the past 10 years. Only the Big East has been more successful and they needed a membership of 16 teams to do that.

I think it is silly to discount UNLV's history before THE MWC and then talk about how good the C7 will be because of the history of the incoming schools.

I think that a harder conference will make any borderline tournament team in the A10 into a team that will miss the tournament, so I doubt Richmond, Dayton, or SLU will help the conference gain bids in the near future.

If those are the teams added, I think the usual year will see the 3-5 bids I listed. That isn't saying the conference couldn't get more, but I think that is unlikely to happen any given year.

You're talking apples and oranges when you're talking UNLV vs "the history of the incoming schools".

I only used the history of the incoming schools in the last 10 years. The UNLV history that you're referencing is from more than 20 years ago when they made Final fours and won a national championship.

My point was that one way to evaluate the strength of a league at least in terms of its star power is how many teams that league gets to the Final Four.

The C7+ is starting off with 6 Final Fours earned within the past 10 years alone. If you want to go back to the 1970's, '80's, and '90's, this group earned many more than that.

I compared that to mid major leagues like the A10 which has earned only 1 Final four in the entire history of the league dating back to 1977, the Mountain West which has never gotten a team to the Final four in the leagues entire history dating back to 1999, etc.

If you want to compare apples to apples so that you can include UNLV's success back in the Tarkanian era, then we can bring in Marquette's national championship (1977), Georgetown's NC (1984), and Villanova's NC (1985) along with a host of Final Four appearances by the C7+ from back in that era.

(02-20-2013 02:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 02:41 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  Yes, but the new schools got their bids based on records compiled against easier competition.

but a lot of times they had to build their resume OOC to get in the tournament.

bottom line you can't have it both ways-
new conference easier so the weaker C7 schools will get bids they wouldn't have gotten before
and
new conference so tough the stronger new schools won't get bids.

it doesn't work that way.

How does it work?

(02-20-2013 01:44 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so looking at your chart- from 15 years on in, it's a wash. The only time that c7 dominant was 20 years.

Also- it's worth reminding that C7 is 7 teams, others are 5 teams.
5 years
C7 - 14 bids (2 per school)
Other 5 - 12-15 bids (9 BU/XU) (2.4-3 per school)
10 years
C7 - 25 bids (3.6 per school)
Other 5 - 22-27 bids (15 BU/XU) (4.4-5.4 per school)
15 years
C7 - 35 bids (5 per school)
Other 5 - 32-38 bids (21 BU/XU) (6.4-7.6 per school)
20 years
C7 - 51 bids (7.3 per school)
Other 5 - 38-44 bids (25 BU/XU) (7.6-8.8 per school)

pretty close to the same. pretty much, I don't see the new schools having any where near as tough of a transition time as the new schools did in the Big East before. We're just not as tough right now. Not overall.

It's also worth reminding that the C-7 has spent the last 7 years in the BE, that 5 of the 7 have been in the BE the entire time, that MU and DePaul were in the GMC/CUSA when not in the BE, and that all of Butler's bids and 2 of Xavier's bids were in the MCC/Horizon league (accounting for 12 of conference's 27 bids in 20 years). Providence and DePaul may not historically be Syracuse or Louisville, but they are also historically not Fordham or Youngstown State either. I can't quantify it, but I know there is a difference in competition when Providence and DePaul play 8-12 conference games a year against NCAA tournament teams, Fordham plays 3-5 and Youngstown State plays 2-4.

(02-20-2013 02:52 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 02:42 PM)College Basketball Fan Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 11:51 AM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 10:07 AM)College Basketball Fan Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 09:40 AM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  Yes, I overlooked the MVC of the 1970's. There day was done when the Metro was formed in 1975 and the MVC lost Louisville, Memphis, etc. Indiana State was their last hurrah.

But my point remains the same. They haven't gotten anyone to a Final 4 in a very long time, i.e. 34 years. Let's look at the other midmajors you've mentioned in terms of Final 4's:

A10 - 1 Final Four in the entire history of the league - UMass (1996)

Mountain West - No Final Fours in league history

West Coast - San Francisco (1955, 56, 57)

New Big East - UConn (1999, 2004, 09, 11), Memphis (2008)

So, the nBE is the only one that has a team that has gone to the Final Four in recent memory. But the nBE is lacking depth. That group has gotten only 26 tournament bids in the last 10 years. That's a 2-3 bid league.

The C7+ has 50-52 bids in the last 10 years. That's a 5 bid league. And if they want to think outside the box, they could replace Dayton with Gonzaga, who has 10 bids in the last 10 years. That would give the C7+ 57 bids, or almost 6 (5.7) per year. No matter how you slice it, the C7+ is a notch above the nBE. More bids, more Final 4's.

We can do a more detailed analysis to show that none of these midmajors has the history of getting the number of bids that the C7+ have. But the bottom line is that the only way that the C7+ doesn't qualify as a power conference is if you require a team with a history of multiple national championships that gets to the tournament most of the time.

If that's the case, then the old Big East didn't qualify as a power conference either because they didn't have anyone who met those criteria until UConn's recent success. Are you really going to tell me that the old Big East was not a power conference?

One correction: the MWC would have UNLV, which has 4 Final Fours in the school's history. I don't know about any other school in that conference.

My criteria for being a power conference is thus:

1. Have a championship contending team every year, either in the form of a single superpower (Kansas, Kentucky), or in the form of multiple teams that could be that good but aren't that way every year (Big East with Louisville, Syracuse, UConn, Georgetown, etc.).

OR

2. Consistently get at least 50% of the league into the tournament.


I don't think the C7 + Butler/Xavier/Dayton/SLU/Richmond meets the first criteria. I see Georgetown as a potential Final Four team on good years, and may Butler and Xavier will get to that level as well, but I don't feel like there are enough good teams to guarantee that one will be that level almost every year.

Additionally, I don't feel that the C7 would meet the second criteria. That would be a 3-5 bid league, and I feel getting 50% of the teams into the tournament would be an exception, not the rule. Essentially, what I'm saying is that if you forced me to say which teams COULD be tournament level over the next 5-10 years, I would say:

C7:
Georgetown
Villanova
Marquette
St. John's

Candidates:
Butler
Xavier
Creighton
Gonzaga
VCU

That doesn't mean that DePaul couldn't regain its swagger or that Saint Louis won't continue to stay competitive, but I feel these are your best basketball schools for the near future. Loading up on teams outside this list makes it a lot harder to justify the C7 as a power conference. They may be better on some year's than the Pac 12 or Big 12 minus Kansas, but that doesn't mean they will be good enough to get respect in the media.

I didn't include UNLV because they were an independent when they went to those Final Fours. I was talking about the history of the conference, which was only formed in 1999.

I can't go on anything but history. And the fact is that in recent years, the C7+ has had championship contending teams almost every year, using the Elite 8 as the definition of championship contender:

2012 -
2011 - Butler R/U, VCU FF
2010 - Butler R/U
2009 - Villanova FF
2008 - Xavier E8
2007 - Georgetown FF
2006 - Villanova E8
2005 -
2004 - Xavier E8
2003 - Marquette FF

Your claim of a 3-5 bid league is not fact based. This group has had 52 bids over the past 10 years. That's an average 0f 5.2 per year, or a 5-6 bid league.

The record of 6 Final fours is surpassed only by the Big East over the past 10 years. The number of bids (52) is almost identical to the Big Ten (54).

You can use your gut to project into a future of a 3-5 bid league, but your gut isn't a fact. The fact is that this group has been as successful as any group in the country over the past 10 years. Only the Big East has been more successful and they needed a membership of 16 teams to do that.

I think it is silly to discount UNLV's history before THE MWC and then talk about how good the C7 will be because of the history of the incoming schools.

I think that a harder conference will make any borderline tournament team in the A10 into a team that will miss the tournament, so I doubt Richmond, Dayton, or SLU will help the conference gain bids in the near future.

If those are the teams added, I think the usual year will see the 3-5 bids I listed. That isn't saying the conference couldn't get more, but I think that is unlikely to happen any given year.

You're talking apples and oranges when you're talking UNLV vs "the history of the incoming schools".

I only used the history of the incoming schools in the last 10 years. The UNLV history that you're referencing is from more than 20 years ago when they made Final fours and won a national championship.

My point was that one way to evaluate the strength of a league at least in terms of its star power is how many teams that league gets to the Final Four.

The C7+ is starting off with 6 Final Fours earned within the past 10 years alone. If you want to go back to the 1970's, '80's, and '90's, this group earned many more than that.

I compared that to mid major leagues like the A10 which has earned only 1 Final four in the entire history of the league dating back to 1977, the Mountain West which has never gotten a team to the Final four in the leagues entire history dating back to 1999, etc.

If you want to compare apples to apples so that you can include UNLV's success back in the Tarkanian era, then we can bring in Marquette's national championship (1977), Georgetown's NC (1984), and Villanova's NC (1985) along with a host of Final Four appearances by the C7+ from back in that era.

I should something a little more clear. The A10 I am considering is not the A10 minus the schools the C7 will poach. In the scenario being considered, I think you would see the A10 add Wichita State, Creighton, and maybe other Midwestern schools (Valpo, Detroit, Loyola-Marymount, and maybe other MVC schools).

That is league I see competing with the C7, not the Fordham and Duquesne that would be left. In similar fashion, I think the MWC could add the best schools in the WCC.

Those conferences would be threats to the C7 because they could get as many bids in the tournament, and would only need a few flash in the pan runs to undermine the C7's superiority.

(02-20-2013 02:53 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 02:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 02:41 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  Yes, but the new schools got their bids based on records compiled against easier competition.

but a lot of times they had to build their resume OOC to get in the tournament.

bottom line you can't have it both ways-
new conference easier so the weaker C7 schools will get bids they wouldn't have gotten before
and
new conference so tough the stronger new schools won't get bids.

it doesn't work that way.

How does it work?

Either Providence, ST Johns, Seton HAll and Depaul will benefit from an easier schedule, or SLU, Dayton and Creighton will suffer from a tougher schedule.

Actually, that COULD happen--the C7 league could be both easier than the old Big East and tougher than the old A-10/Valley.

(02-20-2013 02:53 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 02:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 02:41 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  Yes, but the new schools got their bids based on records compiled against easier competition.

but a lot of times they had to build their resume OOC to get in the tournament.

bottom line you can't have it both ways-
new conference easier so the weaker C7 schools will get bids they wouldn't have gotten before
and
new conference so tough the stronger new schools won't get bids.

it doesn't work that way.

How does it work?

it's an either or. If it's weaker so the weaker C7 schools start getting bids, the new teams will still be doing well and get bids...
or
It's so strong the new schools won't get bids, and the weaker c7 schools won't because it's still strong

It's highly unlikely that we see the weaker C7 schools do so much better than the new schools. highly unlikely. It's far more likely the new schools do well while the poor c7 schools struggle.
looking at KenPom rating- here's the SOS for this year.
Marquette 11/105 OOC
Villanova 14/183
St John's 34/239
Providence 44/297
Georgetown 47/291
Seton Hall 62/330
Butler 66/81
Richmond 85/205
Xavier 86/139
Dayton 89/185
DePaul 93/218
Creighton 96/206
VCU 107/213
SLU 134/279

There's not that much difference between the schedules. The C7 will go down just from not seeing Syracuse, Pitt, ND, Louisville, etc. 2x for some. The A10 schools will go up from not seeing Fordham, Rhode Island, or Duquesne. It's goign to be a step up, but not a huge step up. Similarly it'll be a step down for the C7, but not a huge step down. Not enough of a difference either way to make a huge change.

(02-20-2013 03:10 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 02:53 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 02:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 02:41 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  Yes, but the new schools got their bids based on records compiled against easier competition.

but a lot of times they had to build their resume OOC to get in the tournament.

bottom line you can't have it both ways-
new conference easier so the weaker C7 schools will get bids they wouldn't have gotten before
and
new conference so tough the stronger new schools won't get bids.

it doesn't work that way.

How does it work?

Either Providence, ST Johns, Seton HAll and Depaul will benefit from an easier schedule, or SLU, Dayton and Creighton will suffer from a tougher schedule.

Actually, that COULD happen--the C7 league could be both easier than the old Big East and tougher than the old A-10/Valley.

it's not that much easier for the C7, or harder for the A10. Especially in the A10 case. while yes, they have a few dogs in there- they did a masterful job not forcing top teams to play them 2x.

A big part of the reason why there won't be that much of a difference is SOS OOC. The A10 schools have to schedule well OOC to get in the tourney. The BE schools don't. So the A10 schools are used to playing grueling Decembers already. Their schedule toughness will switch from OOC to in conference to some degree.

(02-20-2013 03:10 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 02:53 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 02:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 02:41 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  Yes, but the new schools got their bids based on records compiled against easier competition.

but a lot of times they had to build their resume OOC to get in the tournament.

bottom line you can't have it both ways-
new conference easier so the weaker C7 schools will get bids they wouldn't have gotten before
and
new conference so tough the stronger new schools won't get bids.

it doesn't work that way.

How does it work?

Either Providence, ST Johns, Seton HAll and Depaul will benefit from an easier schedule, or SLU, Dayton and Creighton will suffer from a tougher schedule.

Actually, that COULD happen--the C7 league could be both easier than the old Big East and tougher than the old A-10/Valley.

Yes, I don't think it's an either/or question. It's a little of both. The Big East schools will face a step down in scheduling and could see their records benefit as a result. At the same time the new schools will face a more difficult schedule and could see their records suffer but their RPI improve as a result. I think the level of competition will be somewhere between the level of the old BE and the old A10.

(02-20-2013 03:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 02:53 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 02:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 02:41 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  Yes, but the new schools got their bids based on records compiled against easier competition.

but a lot of times they had to build their resume OOC to get in the tournament.

bottom line you can't have it both ways-
new conference easier so the weaker C7 schools will get bids they wouldn't have gotten before
and
new conference so tough the stronger new schools won't get bids.

it doesn't work that way.

How does it work?

it's an either or. If it's weaker so the weaker C7 schools start getting bids, the new teams will still be doing well and get bids...
or
It's so strong the new schools won't get bids, and the weaker c7 schools won't because it's still strong

It's highly unlikely that we see the weaker C7 schools do so much better than the new schools. highly unlikely. It's far more likely the new schools do well while the poor c7 schools struggle.
looking at KenPom rating- here's the SOS for this year.
Marquette 11/105 OOC
Villanova 14/183
St John's 34/239
Providence 44/297
Georgetown 47/291
Seton Hall 62/330
Butler 66/81
Richmond 85/205
Xavier 86/139
Dayton 89/185
DePaul 93/218
Creighton 96/206
VCU 107/213
SLU 134/279

There's not that much difference between the schedules. The C7 will go down just from not seeing Syracuse, Pitt, ND, Louisville, etc. 2x for some. The A10 schools will go up from not seeing Fordham, Rhode Island, or Duquesne. It's goign to be a step up, but not a huge step up. Similarly it'll be a step down for the C7, but not a huge step down. Not enough of a difference either way to make a huge change.

It's not an either/or question. It's both but the level of competition will be significantly different. See my previous point for a filler explanation.

Picking this year as an example is simply not sufficient. Go back a few years when the BE got 11 teams to the tournament, when the z9th place team won the NC. Te BE has simply been a far deeper league.

Deleted.

(02-20-2013 02:57 PM)MUAvalanche Wrote:  

(02-20-2013 01:44 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so looking at your chart- from 15 years on in, it's a wash. The only time that c7 dominant was 20 years.

Also- it's worth reminding that C7 is 7 teams, others are 5 teams.
5 years
C7 - 14 bids (2 per school)
Other 5 - 12-15 bids (9 BU/XU) (2.4-3 per school)
10 years
C7 - 25 bids (3.6 per school)
Other 5 - 22-27 bids (15 BU/XU) (4.4-5.4 per school)
15 years
C7 - 35 bids (5 per school)
Other 5 - 32-38 bids (21 BU/XU) (6.4-7.6 per school)
20 years
C7 - 51 bids (7.3 per school)
Other 5 - 38-44 bids (25 BU/XU) (7.6-8.8 per school)

pretty close to the same. pretty much, I don't see the new schools having any where near as tough of a transition time as the new schools did in the Big East before. We're just not as tough right now. Not overall.

It's also worth reminding that the C-7 has spent the last 7 years in the BE, that 5 of the 7 have been in the BE the entire time, that MU and DePaul were in the GMC/CUSA when not in the BE, and that all of Butler's bids and 2 of Xavier's bids were in the MCC/Horizon league (accounting for 12 of conference's 27 bids in 20 years). Providence and DePaul may not historically be Syracuse or Louisville, but they are also historically not Fordham or Youngstown State either. I can't quantify it, but I know there is a difference in competition when Providence and DePaul play 8-12 conference games a year against NCAA tournament teams, Fordham plays 3-5 and Youngstown State plays 2-4.

Maybe you can't quantify it, but you can look at results. Take Providence just as an example and look at the upsets they've pulled off in recent years:

2013 - Notre Dame by 17 (ranked #25)
2012 - Louisville by 31 (Final Four)
2011 - Louisville & Villanova back-to-back (both ranked)
2010 - UConn & St. John's (top 5 in BE)
2009 - #25 Syracuse & #4 Pitt

So, Providence has been knocking off ranked teams every year for the past 5 years. A team capable of playing at that level is clearly better than what their Big East record over the same period reflects.

(02-18-2013 11:47 PM)NJRedMan Wrote:  3. Travel will be the same as they already have. UC/Xavier, ND/Butler, USF/St. Louis/Creighton.

That is not a true statement NJ. Crieghton cannot bus ride to C-7 schools.

(02-20-2013 08:54 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  

(02-18-2013 11:47 PM)NJRedMan Wrote:  3. Travel will be the same as they already have. UC/Xavier, ND/Butler, USF/St. Louis/Creighton.

That is not a true statement NJ. Crieghton cannot bus ride to C-7 schools.

I was talking for the C7. Tampa and Omaha is basically a wash. Thats why i compared ND to Butler and UC to Xavier.