$500,000,000 sounds like a lot but it's for 12 teams over 12 years. The C7 likely gets a bigger share and on the front end and everyone makes more money to start.

And for those who cry incompetence for not taking the big money TV contract when it was on the table! It would not be there today anyway. The big contract was paying for names and markets that are not part of BEast so the contract would have been adjusted or canceled. We will end up in the same place regardless of process.

The rest of the story.
The New 5 joining the C7 will not like being treated as a second class citizen. The "raise" impact will be short lived and discontent will soon follow. Already there are reports of some schools being considered asking for the shares to be leveled over time to bring equity to the league.

How will people find the new network? Media experts talk about the difference in viewer ratings between known names and new networks grown from purchasing an upstart and converting to a sports network. There is a huge difference in exposure between the known networks and those newbies who are purchasing inventory. The C7 fans will follow but for the average fan stumbling across channel 617(ex) is akin to the blind pig analogy. Some media experts also warn of a shakeout in sports programming channels. Already saturated, value is being questioned and the fat boys at the top of the big of leagues will continue to put pressure on sharing with schools/leagues that add nothing to the discussion. TV execs will listen.

BEast C7 to the 27 month exit schedule to force negotiations on two fronts. The issues relating to revenue shares will be litigated and most assuredly will guarantee at least one year of scheduling and MSG tourny play and leave the name intact. The longer the League can hold together gives Memphis more time to improve the sports value image for future expansion.

Beast holds leverage of the name, the MSG contract, shares, and exit dates/buy out amount. The $500 mil provides a baseline for the basketball contract and the New BEast will be better off as an all conference league with the FB contract combined. Fox will be interested in a resolution because they need to get the inventory confirmed so there will be pressure on the upside of the contract for the BEast.

Is this what we expected, wanted and needed? Of course not but the end of world talk is premature. Be patient Tiger fans. There are several more chapters to be written in this story.

I still say B12 by 2015 after the next big wave of changes that will include the movement of TX. Don't be surprised by SEC or B10pluswhatever rumors for the cattle rustlers from Austin.

First of all, if you don't believe the Big East TV contract has been grossly mishandled, you are in the minority. They were offered a long term deal, one paying full membership near $9-11 million/year. We'd be lucky to get $5 million now, and most estimates are pegging it closer to $40 million for the ENTIRE conference. Would the teams left? Probably. Would the rest of the Big East have a higher valued contract? Probably.

How will people find the C7 network? Not really sure it matters that much. They would have nailed down a 12 year contract that plays $500,000,000. Are they going to get the exposure of the ACC? No, but neither is the nBE. Hell, even if the nBE gets a contract with ESPN (doubtful), we will be relegated to the Ocho or non-prime time slots.

The C7 teams are projected to make more than the OLD TV contract. They'd be looking at chump change if they stayed in the nBE. Most people are estimating that the entire nBE is worth around $40 million, which is approximately what the C7 is projected.

Face it, there is very little interest in our football conference.

My guess is that the C7 will negotiate the Big East name. The MSG deal will go with them regardless, and it really makes little sense to hold it there now anyway. Also, my guess is that the C7 will negotiate a break away next season. We'll have to see about that.

I also believe expansion will happen. I don't think we are on anyone's short list. Cinci and UCONN are and will be the first two out of the nBE, which totally decimates us. We lose our best basketball and two of the top basketball teams. There is no way we will be in the Big 12 or ACC unless all hell breaks loose. It's a pipe dream at this time. 5-10 years down the road? Maybe, but football will have to completely turn around. I'm excited about our future, but our last three wins were against some of the very worst in FBS football. It will take years to really see improvement.

(01-12-2013 01:42 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  First of all, if you don't believe the Big East TV contract has been grossly mishandled, you are in the minority. They were offered a long term deal, one paying full membership near $9-11 million/year. We'd be lucky to get $5 million now, and most estimates are pegging it closer to $40 million for the ENTIRE conference. Would the teams left? Probably. Would the rest of the Big East have a higher valued contract? Probably.

How will people find the C7 network? Not really sure it matters that much. They would have nailed down a 12 year contract that plays $500,000,000. Are they going to get the exposure of the ACC? No, but neither is the nBE. Hell, even if the nBE gets a contract with ESPN (doubtful), we will be relegated to the Ocho or non-prime time slots.

The C7 teams are projected to make more than the OLD TV contract. They'd be looking at chump change if they stayed in the nBE. Most people are estimating that the entire nBE is worth around $40 million, which is approximately what the C7 is projected.

Face it, there is very little interest in our football conference.

My guess is that the C7 will negotiate the Big East name. The MSG deal will go with them regardless, and it really makes little sense to hold it there now anyway. Also, my guess is that the C7 will negotiate a break away next season. We'll have to see about that.

I also believe expansion will happen. I don't think we are on anyone's short list. Cinci and UCONN are and will be the first two out of the nBE, which totally decimates us. We lose our best basketball and two of the top basketball teams. There is no way we will be in the Big 12 or ACC unless all hell breaks loose. It's a pipe dream at this time. 5-10 years down the road? Maybe, but football will have to completely turn around. I'm excited about our future, but our last three wins were against some of the very worst in FBS football. It will take years to really see improvement.

Try reading my post before responding and it will help with conversation.

Didn't say they didn't mess up on the contract. I said it didn't matter because the contract would have been invalidated. There has been a cloud over the BEast since the first wave of raids and the call to join any of the big five would then and now be met with a quick yes from anyone then and now. A Canceled contract is no contract and no money. That is not my opinion. That came straight from a round table discussion of media execs. So that $9-11 million means no more than the email notification you get saying you just won the Nigerian lottery.

I specifically said he C7 + 5 would make more money but an uneven split will cause problems. That is a fact because it has already started. And it matters a great deal if the network is not on an available cable package or is so buried people not only can't find it they don't even bother to look.

I specifically addressed negotiations for the name and MSG but right now the BEast owns it and will use that ownership for leverage in contract negotiations. A $500,000,000 contract means nothing if the teams can't leave for 27 months and is tied up in court. That's why I mentioned the one year timeframe which was also the scenario floated by the media execs. So yes there is a real possibility that the C7 +5 end up with both but it will come with a price tag and a likely contract link for whatever they call here we are going.

The only thing I shared that was my opinion was the B12 by 2015 which I specifically said had conditions of another raid wave including TX. Pipedream? Maybe but nearly two years ago I shared some info about support from some B12 coaches and admin. and it's still there. I got that straight from a B12 university administrator back then and now. And I think a good reader would notice I said the longer the BEast can hold together the more time e have to get ready.

The last two sentences could have been cut-n-paste from other posts I have made.

I am betting that Memphis fans will be pleased at what is about to be built within the next few weeks.

(01-12-2013 04:07 PM)Tigerx3 Wrote:  

(01-12-2013 01:42 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  First of all, if you don't believe the Big East TV contract has been grossly mishandled, you are in the minority. They were offered a long term deal, one paying full membership near $9-11 million/year. We'd be lucky to get $5 million now, and most estimates are pegging it closer to $40 million for the ENTIRE conference. Would the teams left? Probably. Would the rest of the Big East have a higher valued contract? Probably.

How will people find the C7 network? Not really sure it matters that much. They would have nailed down a 12 year contract that plays $500,000,000. Are they going to get the exposure of the ACC? No, but neither is the nBE. Hell, even if the nBE gets a contract with ESPN (doubtful), we will be relegated to the Ocho or non-prime time slots.

The C7 teams are projected to make more than the OLD TV contract. They'd be looking at chump change if they stayed in the nBE. Most people are estimating that the entire nBE is worth around $40 million, which is approximately what the C7 is projected.

Face it, there is very little interest in our football conference.

My guess is that the C7 will negotiate the Big East name. The MSG deal will go with them regardless, and it really makes little sense to hold it there now anyway. Also, my guess is that the C7 will negotiate a break away next season. We'll have to see about that.

I also believe expansion will happen. I don't think we are on anyone's short list. Cinci and UCONN are and will be the first two out of the nBE, which totally decimates us. We lose our best basketball and two of the top basketball teams. There is no way we will be in the Big 12 or ACC unless all hell breaks loose. It's a pipe dream at this time. 5-10 years down the road? Maybe, but football will have to completely turn around. I'm excited about our future, but our last three wins were against some of the very worst in FBS football. It will take years to really see improvement.

Try reading my post before responding and it will help with conversation.

Didn't say they didn't mess up on the contract. I said it didn't matter because the contract would have been invalidated. There has been a cloud over the BEast since the first wave of raids and the call to join any of the big five would then and now be met with a quick yes from anyone then and now. A Canceled contract is no contract and no money. That is not my opinion. That came straight from a round table discussion of media execs. So that $9-11 million means no more than the email notification you get saying you just won the Nigerian lottery.

I specifically said he C7 + 5 would make more money but an uneven split will cause problems. That is a fact because it has already started. And it matters a great deal if the network is not on an available cable package or is so buried people not only can't find it they don't even bother to look.

I specifically addressed negotiations for the name and MSG but right now the BEast owns it and will use that ownership for leverage in contract negotiations. A $500,000,000 contract means nothing if the teams can't leave for 27 months and is tied up in court. That's why I mentioned the one year timeframe which was also the scenario floated by the media execs. So yes there is a real possibility that the C7 +5 end up with both but it will come with a price tag and a likely contract link for whatever they call here we are going.

The only thing I shared that was my opinion was the B12 by 2015 which I specifically said had conditions of another raid wave including TX. Pipedream? Maybe but nearly two years ago I shared some info about support from some B12 coaches and admin. and it's still there. I got that straight from a B12 university administrator back then and now. And I think a good reader would notice I said the longer the BEast can hold together the more time e have to get ready.

The last two sentences could have been cut-n-paste from other posts I have made.

I read your post. The lack of an established contract has hurt the Big East in many ways. If we had a decent contract, we might still have Boise and the C7. The continual loss of value was the reason they bailed. SDSU will most likely follow, and honestly it makes sense for both parties for this to happen. The Big East is desperate for any decent football teams, so they are trying to keep them. I'd be very surprised if they stay, but we'll know soon enough. And we still don't have a deal, and the longer it takes, the more likely it will be devalued.

I agree that the contract would have been renegotiated with the mass exodus. And I agree that Louisville, Rutgers, Pitt. etc, would still be gone.

I'm still very pleased where we are. It's far better than where we left. I'd rather be with the best of the C-USA than the dregs.

The Big 12? Come on. Face reality. We add no value and they aren't going to share their money with us. Can we get there? Possibly, but we are miles away now. I hope we keep improving our product so that one day we have a chance. The very best thing that could happen is that realignment slows for a few years while we improve.

My guess is that the C7 will be real happy with $500 million and Fox. IT'S THE MONEY!! If ESPN offers $300 million, who will they sign with? If the nBE gets big money with CSS, they'll take it. Obviously, the big money comes from the big networks since they are the only ones that can pay it.

(01-12-2013 04:16 PM)Gray Avenger Wrote:  I am betting that Memphis fans will be pleased at what is about to be built within the next few weeks.

I hope so!

Good points, Tigers3x.

Obstacles I see for the C7 include:
1) Getting out of the 27 month notice requirement.

They announced they were leaving in Dec 2012. 27 months would be March 2015, just right after the Big East tourney for that year. So, unless they strike an AGREEABLE exit fee per team, they can stay the duration with all the new additions for 2 full BB seasons.

Obviously, the most they want to do is ONE more season: 2013-14, before Tulane joins. Notre Dame, Louisville, and Rutgers will still be there so the C-7 will probably hold their nose for the initial year with the ex C-USA riffraff. The good news for MEMPHIS is next BB season (2013-14) will be a good one for Big East schedule purposes, plus the participation in the BEC BB tourney in MSG.

I'm curious what the negotiated exit fee will be. My hunch is $2.5mm per team to leave on June 30. 2014.

Don't forget Notre Dame is leaving then, too. Add another $2.5mm for them.

Oh, and Rutgers and Louisville will be leaving but their buyout as all sports members is probably double - $5mm.

The bad news for the new members joining 7-1-30 is they are literally a day late so they don't share in the split of the penalty buy out fees. Add all those up and it is a total of $30mm to the full members UConn, Cincinnati, South Florida, and Temple. They each pocket a cool $7.5mm each and then throw open the doors to welcome MEMPHIS, UCF, SMU, and Houston.

2. Procuring the Big East name and retention of the BB tourney at MSG each March.

I think THIS is where the real money comes in for the current Big East membership. The C-7 and their 5 newest buddies will definitely want to keep playing in the "Big East" and showcase their tournament in the Garden as they are used to. Plus, with MEMPHIS and the Texas schools joining, and Tulane coming on board in 2014, the "old Big East" will want to change their name.

Assuming the NCAA assures the "old Big East" they will be included in both the FB and BB postseasons with no waiting period, a resolution should be done sometime in that final year (2013-14).

I think the fee to surrender the Big East name and current MSG contract will be in the $30mm-$40mm range. To keep it simple let's assume it is $30mm and a done deal in December 2013. Let's further presume the old Big East will convert to the new name "Metro" on 7-1-14.

There will be 10 teams in the Metro on 7-1-14: Connecticut, Cincinnati, South Florida, Temple, MEMPHIS, Central Florida, SMU, Houston, Tulane, and East Carolina (FB only). An equal split of that $30mm fee will net each of them $3mm.

One final thing. If the C-7 + 5 splits the $500m deal equally each year, then each school will get $3.47mm for a dozen years. Very nice.

Assuming memtiger1987 is right and the Metro *ONLY* gets $40mm/year, then that split will be:
FB schools = 70% or $28mm/year divided by all 10 schools = $2.8mm per school.
BB schools = 30% or $12mm/year divided by 9 schools (not ECU) = $1.33mm per school.

Basic math skills indicate MEMPHIS would get $4.13mm/year in memtiger1987's WORST CASE TV contract scenario. The killer point is the rock bottom WORST CASE scenario is STILL more than 3 x better than what MEMPHIS gets today in C-USA ($1.2mm).

But what if the contract is $50mm/year? That makes it $5.16mm/year for MEMPHIS.

$60mm/year increases it to $6.26mm/year. No, it's not ACC or B10 level but it's better than MWC plus the Metro doesn't have to "render unto Boise State" what is theirs by contract.

No matter what, the ultimate "Metro" Conference TV deal WILL be superior to the current C-USA deal. It is damn hard for the naysayers and TAMMs to spin that, try though they will.

Aresco has a TV market background. Let's see how the negotiations go and what actually happens.

(01-12-2013 05:43 PM)boss man Wrote:  Good points, Tigers3x.

Obstacles I see for the C7 include:
1) Getting out of the 27 month notice requirement.

They announced they were leaving in Dec 2012. 27 months would be March 2015, just right after the Big East tourney for that year. So, unless they strike an AGREEABLE exit fee per team, they can stay the duration with all the new additions for 2 full BB seasons.

Obviously, the most they want to do is ONE more season: 2013-14, before Tulane joins. Notre Dame, Louisville, and Rutgers will still be there so the C-7 will probably hold their nose for the initial year with the ex C-USA riffraff. The good news for MEMPHIS is next BB season (2013-14) will be a good one for Big East schedule purposes, plus the participation in the BEC BB tourney in MSG.

I'm curious what the negotiated exit fee will be. My hunch is $2.5mm per team to leave on June 30. 2014.

Don't forget Notre Dame is leaving then, too. Add another $2.5mm for them.

Oh, and Rutgers and Louisville will be leaving but their buyout as all sports members is probably double - $5mm.

The bad news for the new members joining 7-1-30 is they are literally a day late so they don't share in the split of the penalty buy out fees. Add all those up and it is a total of $30mm to the full members UConn, Cincinnati, South Florida, and Temple. They each pocket a cool $7.5mm each and then throw open the doors to welcome MEMPHIS, UCF, SMU, and Houston.

2. Procuring the Big East name and retention of the BB tourney at MSG each March.

I think THIS is where the real money comes in for the current Big East membership. The C-7 and their 5 newest buddies will definitely want to keep playing in the "Big East" and showcase their tournament in the Garden as they are used to. Plus, with MEMPHIS and the Texas schools joining, and Tulane coming on board in 2014, the "old Big East" will want to change their name.

Assuming the NCAA assures the "old Big East" they will be included in both the FB and BB postseasons with no waiting period, a resolution should be done sometime in that final year (2013-14).

I think the fee to surrender the Big East name and current MSG contract will be in the $30mm-$40mm range. To keep it simple let's assume it is $30mm and a done deal in December 2013. Let's further presume the old Big East will convert to the new name "Metro" on 7-1-14.

There will be 10 teams in the Metro on 7-1-14: Connecticut, Cincinnati, South Florida, Temple, MEMPHIS, Central Florida, SMU, Houston, Tulane, and East Carolina (FB only). An equal split of that $30mm fee will net each of them $3mm.

One final thing. If the C-7 + 5 splits the $500m deal equally each year, then each school will get $3.47mm for a dozen years. Very nice.

Assuming memtiger1987 is right and the Metro *ONLY* gets $40mm/year, then that split will be:
FB schools = 70% or $28mm/year divided by all 10 schools = $2.8mm per school.
BB schools = 30% or $12mm/year divided by 9 schools (not ECU) = $1.33mm per school.

Basic math skills indicate MEMPHIS would get $4.13mm/year in memtiger1987's WORST CASE TV contract scenario. The killer point is the rock bottom WORST CASE scenario is STILL more than 3 x better than what MEMPHIS gets today in C-USA ($1.2mm).

But what if the contract is $50mm/year? That makes it $5.16mm/year for MEMPHIS.

$60mm/year increases it to $6.26mm/year. No, it's not ACC or B10 level but it's better than MWC plus the Metro doesn't have to "render unto Boise State" what is theirs by contract.

No matter what, the ultimate "Metro" Conference TV deal WILL be superior to the current C-USA deal. It is damn hard for the naysayers and TAMMs to spin that, try though they will.

Aresco has a TV market background. Let's see how the negotiations go and what actually happens.

That's like algebra and stuff, but it looks better than CUSA and much better than MWC. So all is OK for right now, carry on NBE, get er done! Or something like that.

Boss man,

I agree with most of your post. I think/hope that the C7 will play one more season in the Big East. Although, no one has waited the 27 months and negotiated a settlement.

I think they will also negotiate the Big East name and MSG tournament. I believe that MSG can void the contract based on conference changes and then negotiate a deal with the C7.

Our contract had been devalued to $60-80 million with Boise, SDSU, and the C7. Since then we've lost our flagship football team and 7 basketball schools that obviously the media thinks has big time value. I'd say we are looking at $40 million.

Also, we've heard reports that the Big East is considering UMASS and Tulsa. That, of course, is TBD but it would split the pie two more ways. Neither will add a nickel to our value, but its probably wise to at least take Tulsa to keep them from moving to the MWC. It would be great to trade them with Tulane, since they add absolutely nothing. I still have to question that move.

(01-12-2013 05:14 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(01-12-2013 04:07 PM)Tigerx3 Wrote:  

(01-12-2013 01:42 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  .

Try reading my post before responding and it will help with conversation.

Didn't say they didn't mess up on the contract. I said it didn't matter because the contract would have been invalidated. There has been a cloud over the BEast since the first wave of raids and the call to join any of the big five would then and now be met with a quick yes from anyone then and now. A Canceled contract is no contract and no money. That is not my opinion. That came straight from a round table discussion of media execs. So that $9-11 million means no more than the email notification you get saying you just won the Nigerian lottery.

I specifically said he C7 + 5 would make more money but an uneven split will cause problems. That is a fact because it has already started. And it matters a great deal if the network is not on an available cable package or is so buried people not only can't find it they don't even bother to look.

I specifically addressed negotiations for the name and MSG but right now the BEast owns it and will use that ownership for leverage in contract negotiations. A $500,000,000 contract means nothing if the teams can't leave for 27 months and is tied up in court. That's why I mentioned the one year timeframe which was also the scenario floated by the media execs. So yes there is a real possibility that the C7 +5 end up with both but it will come with a price tag and a likely contract link for whatever they call here we are going.

The only thing I shared that was my opinion was the B12 by 2015 which I specifically said had conditions of another raid wave including TX. Pipedream? Maybe but nearly two years ago I shared some info about support from some B12 coaches and admin. and it's still there. I got that straight from a B12 university administrator back then and now. And I think a good reader would notice I said the longer the BEast can hold together the more time e have to get ready.

The last two sentences could have been cut-n-paste from other posts I have made.

I read your post. The lack of an established contract has hurt the Big East in many ways. If we had a decent contract, we might still have Boise and the C7. The continual loss of value was the reason they bailed. SDSU will most likely follow, and honestly it makes sense for both parties for this to happen. The Big East is desperate for any decent football teams, so they are trying to keep them. I'd be very surprised if they stay, but we'll know soon enough. And we still don't have a deal, and the longer it takes, the more likely it will be devalued.

I agree that the contract would have been renegotiated with the mass exodus. And I agree that Louisville, Rutgers, Pitt. etc, would still be gone.

I'm still very pleased where we are. It's far better than where we left. I'd rather be with the best of the C-USA than the dregs.

The Big 12? Come on. Face reality. We add no value and they aren't going to share their money with us. Can we get there? Possibly, but we are miles away now. I hope we keep improving our product so that one day we have a chance. The very best thing that could happen is that realignment slows for a few years while we improve.

My guess is that the C7 will be real happy with $500 million and Fox. IT'S THE MONEY!! If ESPN offers $300 million, who will they sign with? If the nBE gets big money with CSS, they'll take it. Obviously, the big money comes from the big networks since they are the only ones that can pay it.

you keep trying to measure where we are now with what was being offered before the last exodus when you should be measuring vs zero. Boise was lured by the promise of something bigger even though the move made no sense In any other way. If the BEast had accepted the contract offer and then it was withdrawn, how would Boise have made a different choice? We would have been at zero then just like we are now.

If anything we have a bargaining chip now we didn't have then. The C7 exit created more value for the BEast name simply in reference to possession. They want it and we own it. That provides leverage with The parent network to free up the C7 inventory.

So what if Fox comes to the league and says, look guys. We know how this is going to end up. Lawsuits costing a ton of money, schools forced to stay together in a state of resentment and a hold on all tv contracts for 27 months. Sign away the Beast name and let the C7 go and we'll partner in a split BB and FB package for x-hundred million. That provides the nBEast the leverage it needs to play ESPN, CSS and Fox against each other.

Nobody knows how this will end. Nobody. But there is room for somebody with big private parts to make a play that provides more than $40 mil a year.

In the future we know whatever we re called will get raided as will likely the B12 and the ACC.
The SEC is king. The B10+ is next followed by PAC. They will set the the for the next wave.

(01-12-2013 07:10 PM)Tigerx3 Wrote:  

(01-12-2013 05:14 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(01-12-2013 04:07 PM)Tigerx3 Wrote:  

(01-12-2013 01:42 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  .

Try reading my post before responding and it will help with conversation.

Didn't say they didn't mess up on the contract. I said it didn't matter because the contract would have been invalidated. There has been a cloud over the BEast since the first wave of raids and the call to join any of the big five would then and now be met with a quick yes from anyone then and now. A Canceled contract is no contract and no money. That is not my opinion. That came straight from a round table discussion of media execs. So that $9-11 million means no more than the email notification you get saying you just won the Nigerian lottery.

I specifically said he C7 + 5 would make more money but an uneven split will cause problems. That is a fact because it has already started. And it matters a great deal if the network is not on an available cable package or is so buried people not only can't find it they don't even bother to look.

I specifically addressed negotiations for the name and MSG but right now the BEast owns it and will use that ownership for leverage in contract negotiations. A $500,000,000 contract means nothing if the teams can't leave for 27 months and is tied up in court. That's why I mentioned the one year timeframe which was also the scenario floated by the media execs. So yes there is a real possibility that the C7 +5 end up with both but it will come with a price tag and a likely contract link for whatever they call here we are going.

The only thing I shared that was my opinion was the B12 by 2015 which I specifically said had conditions of another raid wave including TX. Pipedream? Maybe but nearly two years ago I shared some info about support from some B12 coaches and admin. and it's still there. I got that straight from a B12 university administrator back then and now. And I think a good reader would notice I said the longer the BEast can hold together the more time e have to get ready.

The last two sentences could have been cut-n-paste from other posts I have made.

I read your post. The lack of an established contract has hurt the Big East in many ways. If we had a decent contract, we might still have Boise and the C7. The continual loss of value was the reason they bailed. SDSU will most likely follow, and honestly it makes sense for both parties for this to happen. The Big East is desperate for any decent football teams, so they are trying to keep them. I'd be very surprised if they stay, but we'll know soon enough. And we still don't have a deal, and the longer it takes, the more likely it will be devalued.

I agree that the contract would have been renegotiated with the mass exodus. And I agree that Louisville, Rutgers, Pitt. etc, would still be gone.

I'm still very pleased where we are. It's far better than where we left. I'd rather be with the best of the C-USA than the dregs.

The Big 12? Come on. Face reality. We add no value and they aren't going to share their money with us. Can we get there? Possibly, but we are miles away now. I hope we keep improving our product so that one day we have a chance. The very best thing that could happen is that realignment slows for a few years while we improve.

My guess is that the C7 will be real happy with $500 million and Fox. IT'S THE MONEY!! If ESPN offers $300 million, who will they sign with? If the nBE gets big money with CSS, they'll take it. Obviously, the big money comes from the big networks since they are the only ones that can pay it.

you keep trying to measure where we are now with what was being offered before the last exodus when you should be measuring vs zero. Boise was lured by the promise of something bigger even though the move made no sense In any other way. If the BEast had accepted the contract offer and then it was withdrawn, how would Boise have made a different choice? We would have been at zero then just like we are now.

If anything we have a bargaining chip now we didn't have then. The C7 exit created more value for the BEast name simply in reference to possession. They want it and we own it. That provides leverage with The parent network to free up the C7 inventory.

So what if Fox comes to the league and says, look guys. We know how this is going to end up. Lawsuits costing a ton of money, schools forced to stay together in a state of resentment and a hold on all tv contracts for 27 months. Sign away the Beast name and let the C7 go and we'll partner in a split BB and FB package for x-hundred million. That provides the nBEast the leverage it needs to play ESPN, CSS and Fox against each other.

Nobody knows how this will end. Nobody. But there is room for somebody with big private parts to make a play that provides more than $40 mil a year.

In the future we know whatever we re called will get raided as will likely the B12 and the ACC.
The SEC is king. The B10+ is next followed by PAC. They will set the the for the next wave.

As for the B12. If the top four are stolen away which is as likely ad not, who fills those slots? Memphis due to location, TV market, BB and hopefully a much improved FB program can be at the table. It won't be the same B12 just like it is not the same BEast.

(01-12-2013 07:14 PM)Tigerx3 Wrote:  

(01-12-2013 07:10 PM)Tigerx3 Wrote:  

(01-12-2013 05:14 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(01-12-2013 04:07 PM)Tigerx3 Wrote:  

(01-12-2013 01:42 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  .

Try reading my post before responding and it will help with conversation.

Didn't say they didn't mess up on the contract. I said it didn't matter because the contract would have been invalidated. There has been a cloud over the BEast since the first wave of raids and the call to join any of the big five would then and now be met with a quick yes from anyone then and now. A Canceled contract is no contract and no money. That is not my opinion. That came straight from a round table discussion of media execs. So that $9-11 million means no more than the email notification you get saying you just won the Nigerian lottery.

I specifically said he C7 + 5 would make more money but an uneven split will cause problems. That is a fact because it has already started. And it matters a great deal if the network is not on an available cable package or is so buried people not only can't find it they don't even bother to look.

I specifically addressed negotiations for the name and MSG but right now the BEast owns it and will use that ownership for leverage in contract negotiations. A $500,000,000 contract means nothing if the teams can't leave for 27 months and is tied up in court. That's why I mentioned the one year timeframe which was also the scenario floated by the media execs. So yes there is a real possibility that the C7 +5 end up with both but it will come with a price tag and a likely contract link for whatever they call here we are going.

The only thing I shared that was my opinion was the B12 by 2015 which I specifically said had conditions of another raid wave including TX. Pipedream? Maybe but nearly two years ago I shared some info about support from some B12 coaches and admin. and it's still there. I got that straight from a B12 university administrator back then and now. And I think a good reader would notice I said the longer the BEast can hold together the more time e have to get ready.

The last two sentences could have been cut-n-paste from other posts I have made.

I read your post. The lack of an established contract has hurt the Big East in many ways. If we had a decent contract, we might still have Boise and the C7. The continual loss of value was the reason they bailed. SDSU will most likely follow, and honestly it makes sense for both parties for this to happen. The Big East is desperate for any decent football teams, so they are trying to keep them. I'd be very surprised if they stay, but we'll know soon enough. And we still don't have a deal, and the longer it takes, the more likely it will be devalued.

I agree that the contract would have been renegotiated with the mass exodus. And I agree that Louisville, Rutgers, Pitt. etc, would still be gone.

I'm still very pleased where we are. It's far better than where we left. I'd rather be with the best of the C-USA than the dregs.

The Big 12? Come on. Face reality. We add no value and they aren't going to share their money with us. Can we get there? Possibly, but we are miles away now. I hope we keep improving our product so that one day we have a chance. The very best thing that could happen is that realignment slows for a few years while we improve.

My guess is that the C7 will be real happy with $500 million and Fox. IT'S THE MONEY!! If ESPN offers $300 million, who will they sign with? If the nBE gets big money with CSS, they'll take it. Obviously, the big money comes from the big networks since they are the only ones that can pay it.

you keep trying to measure where we are now with what was being offered before the last exodus when you should be measuring vs zero. Boise was lured by the promise of something bigger even though the move made no sense In any other way. If the BEast had accepted the contract offer and then it was withdrawn, how would Boise have made a different choice? We would have been at zero then just like we are now.

If anything we have a bargaining chip now we didn't have then. The C7 exit created more value for the BEast name simply in reference to possession. They want it and we own it. That provides leverage with The parent network to free up the C7 inventory.

So what if Fox comes to the league and says, look guys. We know how this is going to end up. Lawsuits costing a ton of money, schools forced to stay together in a state of resentment and a hold on all tv contracts for 27 months. Sign away the Beast name and let the C7 go and we'll partner in a split BB and FB package for x-hundred million. That provides the nBEast the leverage it needs to play ESPN, CSS and Fox against each other.

Nobody knows how this will end. Nobody. But there is room for somebody with big private parts to make a play that provides more than $40 mil a year.

In the future we know whatever we re called will get raided as will likely the B12 and the ACC.
The SEC is king. The B10+ is next followed by PAC. They will set the the for the next wave.

As for the B12. If the top four are stolen away which is as likely ad not, who fills those slots? Memphis due to location, TV market, BB and hopefully a much improved FB program can be at the table. It won't be the same B12 just like it is not the same BEast.

The only way we get into the Big 12 is for their conference getting decimated. It looks a lot less likely now, but as you know, anything is possible with realignment .

Obviously, the C7 wants the Big East name. We'll see how much they are willing to pay for it, but if they add Butler, Xavier, and a few other blue chips, they will be worth the a lot no matter what you call them. But, Aresco will get what he can for the name. I think the MSG contract will be voided and the C7 will play their regardless of their name.

The 27 months isn't worth the paper it's written on. However, history has shown that it will cost them, which is a good thing for the remaining members of the Big East.

Memphis has a decent population, but I think you are completely over valuing our FV market. This is a poor area and there is almost no support for our football program. Shelby county has a million people and we are lucky to draw 25k. None of our teams has nationwide appeal. For that matter, we have very little regional appeal. TV ads are not that expensive here, and that's probably the appeal for UMASS.

Look, I'm with you. I hope we score a huge contract and fleece the hell out if teams leaving early. But, reality shows they'll negotiate for much lower and that our TV contract will be much less than we originally anticipated.

It will be interesting how this shakes out, but I'm not worried about it. Memphis made the absolute right choice and we are much better off than the alternative.

(01-12-2013 05:43 PM)boss man Wrote:  Good points, Tigers3x.

Obstacles I see for the C7 include:
1) Getting out of the 27 month notice requirement.

They announced they were leaving in Dec 2012. 27 months would be March 2015, just right after the Big East tourney for that year. So, unless they strike an AGREEABLE exit fee per team, they can stay the duration with all the new additions for 2 full BB seasons.

Obviously, the most they want to do is ONE more season: 2013-14, before Tulane joins. Notre Dame, Louisville, and Rutgers will still be there so the C-7 will probably hold their nose for the initial year with the ex C-USA riffraff. The good news for MEMPHIS is next BB season (2013-14) will be a good one for Big East schedule purposes, plus the participation in the BEC BB tourney in MSG.

I'm curious what the negotiated exit fee will be. My hunch is $2.5mm per team to leave on June 30. 2014.

Don't forget Notre Dame is leaving then, too. Add another $2.5mm for them.

Oh, and Rutgers and Louisville will be leaving but their buyout as all sports members is probably double - $5mm.

The bad news for the new members joining 7-1-30 is they are literally a day late so they don't share in the split of the penalty buy out fees. Add all those up and it is a total of $30mm to the full members UConn, Cincinnati, South Florida, and Temple. They each pocket a cool $7.5mm each and then throw open the doors to welcome MEMPHIS, UCF, SMU, and Houston.

2. Procuring the Big East name and retention of the BB tourney at MSG each March.

I think THIS is where the real money comes in for the current Big East membership. The C-7 and their 5 newest buddies will definitely want to keep playing in the "Big East" and showcase their tournament in the Garden as they are used to. Plus, with MEMPHIS and the Texas schools joining, and Tulane coming on board in 2014, the "old Big East" will want to change their name.

Assuming the NCAA assures the "old Big East" they will be included in both the FB and BB postseasons with no waiting period, a resolution should be done sometime in that final year (2013-14).

I think the fee to surrender the Big East name and current MSG contract will be in the $30mm-$40mm range. To keep it simple let's assume it is $30mm and a done deal in December 2013. Let's further presume the old Big East will convert to the new name "Metro" on 7-1-14.

There will be 10 teams in the Metro on 7-1-14: Connecticut, Cincinnati, South Florida, Temple, MEMPHIS, Central Florida, SMU, Houston, Tulane, and East Carolina (FB only). An equal split of that $30mm fee will net each of them $3mm.

One final thing. If the C-7 + 5 splits the $500m deal equally each year, then each school will get $3.47mm for a dozen years. Very nice.

Assuming memtiger1987 is right and the Metro *ONLY* gets $40mm/year, then that split will be:
FB schools = 70% or $28mm/year divided by all 10 schools = $2.8mm per school.
BB schools = 30% or $12mm/year divided by 9 schools (not ECU) = $1.33mm per school.

Basic math skills indicate MEMPHIS would get $4.13mm/year in memtiger1987's WORST CASE TV contract scenario. The killer point is the rock bottom WORST CASE scenario is STILL more than 3 x better than what MEMPHIS gets today in C-USA ($1.2mm).

But what if the contract is $50mm/year? That makes it $5.16mm/year for MEMPHIS.

$60mm/year increases it to $6.26mm/year. No, it's not ACC or B10 level but it's better than MWC plus the Metro doesn't have to "render unto Boise State" what is theirs by contract.

No matter what, the ultimate "Metro" Conference TV deal WILL be superior to the current C-USA deal. It is damn hard for the naysayers and TAMMs to spin that, try though they will.

Aresco has a TV market background. Let's see how the negotiations go and what actually happens.

Too bad you didn't put all this on a spreadsheet so we could play around with "what if" scenario's, like what if UConn and/or Cincinnati get invitations sooner rather than later? Negotiations over exit fees and trademarked names between a bunch of schools leaving vs very few remaining might take on a whole 'nother complexion. It is, after all, all about the money.

(01-12-2013 07:36 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(01-12-2013 07:14 PM)Tigerx3 Wrote:  

(01-12-2013 07:10 PM)Tigerx3 Wrote:  

(01-12-2013 05:14 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  [quote='Tigerx3' pid='8825943' dateline='1358024876']

you keep trying to measure where we are now with what was being offered before the last exodus when you should be measuring vs zero. Boise was lured by the promise of something bigger even though the move made no sense In any other way. If the BEast had accepted the contract offer and then it was withdrawn, how would Boise have made a different choice? We would have been at zero then just like we are now.

If anything we have a bargaining chip now we didn't have then. The C7 exit created more value for the BEast name simply in reference to possession. They want it and we own it. That provides leverage with The parent network to free up the C7 inventory.

So what if Fox comes to the league and says, look guys. We know how this is going to end up. Lawsuits costing a ton of money, schools forced to stay together in a state of resentment and a hold on all tv contracts for 27 months. Sign away the Beast name and let the C7 go and we'll partner in a split BB and FB package for x-hundred million. That provides the nBEast the leverage it needs to play ESPN, CSS and Fox against each other.

Nobody knows how this will end. Nobody. But there is room for somebody with big private parts to make a play that provides more than $40 mil a year.

In the future we know whatever we re called will get raided as will likely the B12 and the ACC.
The SEC is king. The B10+ is next followed by PAC. They will set the the for the next wave.

As for the B12. If the top four are stolen away which is as likely ad not, who fills those slots? Memphis due to location, TV market, BB and hopefully a much improved FB program can be at the table. It won't be the same B12 just like it is not the same BEast.

The only way we get into the Big 12 is for their conference getting decimated. It looks a lot less likely now, but as you know, anything is possible with realignment .

Obviously, the C7 wants the Big East name. We'll see how much they are willing to pay for it, but if they add Butler, Xavier, and a few other blue chips, they will be worth the a lot no matter what you call them. But, Aresco will get what he can for the name. I think the MSG contract will be voided and the C7 will play their regardless of their name.

The 27 months isn't worth the paper it's written on. However, history has shown that it will cost them, which is a good thing for the remaining members of the Big East.

Memphis has a decent population, but I think you are completely over valuing our FV market. This is a poor area and there is almost no support for our football program. Shelby county has a million people and we are lucky to draw 25k. None of our teams has nationwide appeal. For that matter, we have very little regional appeal. TV ads are not that expensive here, and that's probably the appeal for UMASS.

that's why I included a series of considerations together. Once again read the entire post and stop being selectively critical.

"B12. If the top four are stolen away which is as likely as not, who fills those slots? Memphis due to location, TV market, BB and hopefully a much improved FB program can be at the table."

Here is hoe your post read:

Something bad,
Something bad,
Yea but,
We can't,
We never,
Something bad,
It will never happen,
Something bad,
But I'm happy and hope!

(01-12-2013 08:30 PM)Tigerx3 Wrote:  

(01-12-2013 07:36 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(01-12-2013 07:14 PM)Tigerx3 Wrote:  

(01-12-2013 07:10 PM)Tigerx3 Wrote:  

(01-12-2013 05:14 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  [quote='Tigerx3' pid='8825943' dateline='1358024876']

you keep trying to measure where we are now with what was being offered before the last exodus when you should be measuring vs zero. Boise was lured by the promise of something bigger even though the move made no sense In any other way. If the BEast had accepted the contract offer and then it was withdrawn, how would Boise have made a different choice? We would have been at zero then just like we are now.

If anything we have a bargaining chip now we didn't have then. The C7 exit created more value for the BEast name simply in reference to possession. They want it and we own it. That provides leverage with The parent network to free up the C7 inventory.

So what if Fox comes to the league and says, look guys. We know how this is going to end up. Lawsuits costing a ton of money, schools forced to stay together in a state of resentment and a hold on all tv contracts for 27 months. Sign away the Beast name and let the C7 go and we'll partner in a split BB and FB package for x-hundred million. That provides the nBEast the leverage it needs to play ESPN, CSS and Fox against each other.

Nobody knows how this will end. Nobody. But there is room for somebody with big private parts to make a play that provides more than $40 mil a year.

In the future we know whatever we re called will get raided as will likely the B12 and the ACC.
The SEC is king. The B10+ is next followed by PAC. They will set the the for the next wave.

As for the B12. If the top four are stolen away which is as likely ad not, who fills those slots? Memphis due to location, TV market, BB and hopefully a much improved FB program can be at the table. It won't be the same B12 just like it is not the same BEast.

The only way we get into the Big 12 is for their conference getting decimated. It looks a lot less likely now, but as you know, anything is possible with realignment .

Obviously, the C7 wants the Big East name. We'll see how much they are willing to pay for it, but if they add Butler, Xavier, and a few other blue chips, they will be worth the a lot no matter what you call them. But, Aresco will get what he can for the name. I think the MSG contract will be voided and the C7 will play their regardless of their name.

The 27 months isn't worth the paper it's written on. However, history has shown that it will cost them, which is a good thing for the remaining members of the Big East.

Memphis has a decent population, but I think you are completely over valuing our FV market. This is a poor area and there is almost no support for our football program. Shelby county has a million people and we are lucky to draw 25k. None of our teams has nationwide appeal. For that matter, we have very little regional appeal. TV ads are not that expensive here, and that's probably the appeal for UMASS.

that's why I included a series of considerations together. Once again read the entire post and stop being selectively critical.

"B12. If the top four are stolen away which is as likely as not, who fills those slots? Memphis due to location, TV market, BB and hopefully a much improved FB program can be at the table."

Here is hoe your post read:

Something bad,
Something bad,
Yea but,
We can't,
We never,
Something bad,
It will never happen,
Something bad,
But I'm happy and hope!

I don't bury my head in the sand. It's reality. The football contract isn't going to be worth near what we expected. The basketball schedule isn't either. I'm not crying about it nor am I having illusions of grandeur.

We aren't getting into the Big 12 unless the we see the apocalypse. We might have a slight chance of making the ACC if things completely blow up. We'd be about way down the list, that's for sure. Call it negative, but damn, we have one of the worst football programs in the nation. We have terrible attendance and have won very little. I can honestly say that, but I think Fuente is taking the steps to win. But it won't happen for a few years. You just have to be patient and show up to games. But to say we are getting an invite to the Big 12 soon is just stupid. Florida State maybe. Memphis - laugher.

But hey, other schools found football success and moved up. Louisville is one that is fairly similar. We've got a long way to go, but if things can stay stable for a few years, we might be able to do the same. It's unlikely, but certainly possible.

Again, I'm not crying about it. We could be stuck in C-USA with the dregs of college sports. I'd much rather be with the best of C-USA than the worst. Our contract may be devalued, but it will be worth considerably more than C-USA. For now, it's the best we could reasonably expect. If we can keep Temple, UCONN, and Cinci together for awhile, we'll have some good basketball. Anyway, we could be Southern Miss right now. They'd give their left nut to be where we are.

I'm realistic. I can say the Big East has royally f'ed up their contract. They've overplayed their hand and will be lucky to see half of the original. It happens in negotiations, sometimes you hold firm, sometimes that first deal is by far the best. In this case, they've blown it. They also picked up Tulane, which led the C7 to decide to leave. They might have anyway, but that was the final straw. In short, they've made almost every possible wrong move to date. Hopefully, they can make some better decisions in the future.

I don't bury my head,
Something bad,
Something bad,
Yea but,
We can't,
We never,
Something bad,
It will never happen,
Something bad,
I'm realistic,
But I'm happy and hope!,
Something, bad,
Something bad.

Always good to see people mix it up a little.

(01-12-2013 10:11 PM)Tigerx3 Wrote:  I don't bury my head,
Something bad,
Something bad,
Yea but,
We can't,
We never,
Something bad,
It will never happen,
Something bad,
I'm realistic,
But I'm happy and hope!,
Something, bad,
Something bad.

Always good to see people mix it up a little.

Great stuff!

Let's try you..

Unrealistic..
Dreamer..
Smoking weed..
Happy..
Sad.
Confused.
Smoking weed..
Unrealistic

Let me know when we get that Big 12 invite!

I agree about Aresco and conference not rushing into inviting UMass and Tulsa. Tulane was a panic choice IMHO; that could have been delayed. All three of them, along with SOuthern Miss, would still be available right now.

Let things settle down a bit. Everyone is waiting to see how the Maryland $50mm exit fee thing gets handled in court. If it is ruled extreme and reduced to $20-25mm, we could very well see some major moves between April and August. Quite honestly, the more chaos and mass moves, the better for MEMPHIS.

Anyway, the BE3 should hold tight. Right now it seems SDSU will go back to the MWC. That could be a blessing in disguise even though since it is FB only having a team in a 3mm population metro area is a good thing.

The BTF Syndrome is alive and well; we tend to view things in the most negative possible view for MEMPHIS. What if somehow both SDSU stays and Navy still joins in 2015 as scheduled? The BE3 then looks like this in 2015 assuming everyone else is still here:

East - UConn / Navy (FB only) / Temple / East Carolina (FB only) / USF / UCF
West - MEMPHIS / Tulane / Cincinnati / SMU / Houston / San Diego State (FB only)

12 FB schools and 9 BB schools; perfect for scheduling purposes.

Aresco and all the AD's pretty much must accept the fact all teams are jockeying for position to gain an invitation to one of the power conferences - ACC, B10, B1G, PAC12, SEC. The objectives should be to keep this conference at 12 teams, never invite BB only schools, and replace teams as they move up the chain.

(01-12-2013 05:43 PM)boss man Wrote:  with MEMPHIS and the Texas schools joining, and Tulane coming on board in 2014, the "old Big East" will want to change their name.

I'm not so sure about that. If San Diego State leaves, the new Big East will entirely be in the eastern half of the nation, so it would still fit and I think marketing experts would advise keeping the name. However, I am afraid that UConn, Cincy and USF will recognize the opportunity for a quick cash grab and stuff their pockets by selling that part of what we thought we were getting when we joined. If that happens, UofM loses a valuable brand with no compensation. I may be in the minority here, but I hope that does not happen - never did care for "Metro". If we have to rename, I prefer "EAC" for Eastern Athletic Conference.

Just keep holding C7 feet to the fire on exit date, BEast name, fees, and MSG. It will pay off.