(12-17-2012 06:06 PM)chapel hill owl Wrote: First, if this shooter was just armed with a breach loading shotgun, do you think the fatality count would be so high, especially considering he killed himself as soon as he heard first responders? Do you think there might have been even the chance of an opportunity to rush the shooter when he had to reload after every other shot? And again, none of the potential solutions people have talked about here would prevent every murder/attack. The point is to make them less likely and less deadly.
Maybe, maybe not. If you had everyone lie face down on the floor and shot the adult first, I imagine you could kill just as many with that shotgun. I've read a couple of accounts that many of the kids were shot multiple times, up to 11 IIRC. If that's correct, then it sounds like the automatic feature was largely used to kill dead people deader rather than to increase the number of victims, probably an indication just what a nutcake we are dealing with.
Quote:The second point I'd like to make is to push against the notion that any change to the status quo is moving down the slippery slope. That would be to argue that our current situation is optimal.
The optimality of the current situation has absolutely nothing to do with the slippery slope. The slippery slope addresses the possibility that legislation now, even well-intentioned legislation, may lead to further legislation later that is not so well-intentioned, and may have perverse results. Once we open the door, we may slide down that slippery slope to a much worse situation than we had imagined initially. I think that's a real concern because I don't think the impact of, say, an assault weapons ban would be material, and if it doesn't have a material effect, what do you do then? Do you stop and say, oh well, we tried? Or do you try to add additional legislation? And if that additional legislation doesn't work, either, what then? That's the thought process that leads to the slippery slope, and it has nothing to do with whether the current situation is optimal. I don't believe the current situation is optimal, but that does not in any way affect my concern about a slippery slope.
(12-17-2012 06:31 PM)Barrett Wrote: As Chapel Hill has put much more eloquently than I could, we have to stop thinking in terms of absolutes and start thinking of policy tradeoffs and optimality--as we do with almost every other subject, including even the First Amendment (which is not absolute by any stretch of the imagination). We have to stop thinking that guns are somehow inviolate and holy and treat them like most everything else.
No sure where Chapel Hill said this, but it's a good point. I would just want to caution to be sure to consider all the policy tradeoffs, and to get the right tradeoffs. If you say, "An assault weapons ban will stop incidents like this, and not impose any negative consequences," then it's a slam dunk, obviously. But I don't believe that states correctly the calculus on either side. I don't think a sledgehammer ban would stop the killing in your example.
I would say that we should try to identify the specific changes the would do the most to reduce the rate of gun deaths in exchange for the least negative consequences. And scored that way, I'm pretty sure an assault weapons ban would come in pretty low compared to other approaches. For one thing, stats on the spin room board indicate that assault weapons appear to have accounted for a grand total of about 350 out of 30 million gun deaths, so even eliminating those entirely would have an immaterial effect. For another, Connecticut HAS an assault weapons ban. And the record of gun bans generally is not one of great success. The Brady Bill appears to have had little effect. The Australian experience that was cited here earlier has been to continue virtually the same downward trend that was being experienced before. And Australia started with a much lower gun death rate before its ban than we have. Places like Mexico have seen crime go up under more restrictive gun laws. There is a tendency to work as well as prohibition in any other context--liquor, drugs. Particularly given that gun suicides outnumber gun homicides by almost 2 to 1, I would tend to think that the mental health situation would offer far more promise than a ban on assault rifles. And it would be hard to imagine that the much greater acceptance of violence in things like movies and TV and video games isn't having a much greater effect--although now you get into First Amendment rights that should rate the same protection as Second Amendment rights.
I don't have the answers. I think the effort should be to achieve the largest reduction in gun deaths in return for the smallest deprivation of liberty, and that any deprivation should fall disproportionately on bad actors rather than law-abiding citizens. And I don't think banning assault weapons will score high on that scale. I have laid out some specific ideas that I think would have more impact for less cost. I would hope for discussion along those lines.