35 points most confident of prediction . . 1 point least confident
30 points: Louisiana-Lafayette over East Carolina
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 22; New Orleans)
PickCenter Matchup
Sun Belt juggernaut Louisiana-Lafayette's rush-first attack is both efficient and explosive, too much for an East Carolina team that's among the very weakest of this year's bowl entrants. The Pirates have rolled up some yards this year as well, but have done so against some truly awful outfits that are not the equal even of the Cajuns' modestly talented defense, a unit that at least generates a pass rush, avoids the big play and stands tall in the red zone. Mark Hudspeth's crew is easily the better team here, and it repeats as New Orleans Bowl champs in front of a partisan crowd.
Louisiana-Lafayette 45, East Carolina 31
24 points: Louisiana-Monroe over Ohio
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl (Dec. 28; Shreveport, La.)
PickCenter Matchup
Quarterback Kolton Browning and a talented set of receivers operate an up-tempo passing assault that produces right around 300 yards per game. An Ohio defense that's been thinned by injuries will have trouble countering the Warhawks' speed. Defensively, Monroe has been susceptible to big-play vertical passing attacks, but that's not the Bobcats' forte; none of Ohio's top seven pass-catchers average better than 12 yards per reception. The Warhawks undoubtedly would have preferred a matchup with Louisiana Tech, but they are still playing close to home in the school's first-ever bowl game against a program with a scant record of postseason success.
Louisiana-Monroe 38, Ohio 27
22 points: Western Kentucky over Central Michigan
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl (Dec. 26; Detroit)
PickCenter Matchup
This game would've ranked substantially higher had Willie Taggart not bolted for South Florida, but the favorite is still the only side worth having despite the obvious advantages in geography and fan support for the Chippewas. Central Michigan is 2012's weakest bowl team. Outgained in 10 games, the Chips have played a soft schedule yet have allowed opponents to exceed their average net yardage margins by nearly 100 yards per game, worst among bowl squads. Even without Taggart, the Hilltoppers will be amped for the program's first-ever bowl appearance, and they have the defense to slow Central star Zurlon Tipton while the MAC entrant won't be able to contain Western's all-purpose ace Antonio Andrews.
Western Kentucky 38, Central Michigan 27
2 points: Arkansas State over Kent State
GoDaddy.com Bowl (Jan. 6; Mobile, Ala.)
PickCenter Matchup
Kent State's Darrell Hazell is thus far the only departing head coach who will actually coach his soon-to-be-former charges in their bowl. Arkansas State, meanwhile, is one of at least eight schools led by interim coaches. In command of the Red Wolves is defensive coordinator John Thompson, who boasts just one career win over a team other than Army in 23 games as a head coach (while at East Carolina) -- and that was a two-point home escape over a Tulane squad that hadn't beaten an FBS opponent that year. The Wolves do at least temporarily retain the playcalling services of Gus Malzahn understudy Rhett Lashlee, which means that seasoned triggerman Ryan Aplin will probably still be comfortable guiding what has been a very potent offense against a Kent State defense that has struggled with no-huddle tempo attacks. Kent has weapons of its own in speedster Dri Archer and bruiser Trayion Durham, but what narrowly tips the scales in favor of the Wolves is a solid rush defense that's held its past five opponents under 100 yards and matches up well with the Flashes' one-dimensional ground attack.
Arkansas State 28 Kent State 27
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